One question nobody is asking...

[spb25]

In order for BTC to take off it will require one basic component that does not exist yet... reliable and affordable mobile internet EVERYWHERE.

Yeah, I know, you're ready to pounce and tell me to wake up. Entertain me for a minute. Let me explain...

I live in the United States, about 40 miles from a city with a population of about 45,000. We have three choices for internet; dial up, satellite, or a mobile hotspot (if you can get a connection). Satellite is okay, but it is metered, so if you actually use it, it can be very expensive. Smartphones and hotspots are becoming more common, but they aren't very helpful unless we are close to the city. And dial up, actually, I am not sure you can even get that anymore.

Oh, I forgot to add that I am only fours hours drive from NYC.

I think people on here are putting the cart way before the horse. If you don't believe me, take a drive out to the country and try to use your smartphone. Of the several houses on my street, I am the only one that has access to the internet, mobile or otherwise. I live in the sticks. I explained Uber to about 20 coworkers a few weeks ago. Several of them said it would never work.  (Just trying to paint a picture of what I see.)

So my question is,
How can this technology benefit the "unbanked" in developing countries within the next several years? Really, how close are we to smart contracts and self driving cars and a sustainable BTC price of >$1000?

I keep hearing how BTC is going to help the "unbanked" in developing countries... like that is going to happen in the next year or two. I keep hearing about Etherium, smart contracts, self driving cars. I saw a video on youtube of a prominent BTC person saying that we are almost there. He substantiated it by saying that self driving cars already exist and function. They may exist, but they wont function where I live. In fact, they wont function in most of the world. If I can't call my wife on the drive home from work, how the hell is my car going to drive itself?

For BTC to grow in the time frame many of you propose, developing countries would have to have cheaper and more reliable internet access than me, four hours outside of NYC?

Think about that. That is what I have a hard time wrapping my head around. 

I am not bashing BTC. I own a little and want to cash in someday just like everyone else. I see the potential. I am just trying to offer a perspective that I think most are overlooking.

And please, do not simplify what I am saying. Where I live, people just started using debit cards in place of their checkbooks, and are just now making their first internet purchases!

So even if the access to the internet improves, there is still a long time before the trust factor enters the equation.


Sorry, but three years from now, millions of people in the western world will still be writing checks, and millions in the the developing world will still be seeing the internet for the first time.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Well worldwide internet isn't 100% available yet but so what?  Look at everyone on smartphones and how that succeeded.  The world will catch up.

[spb25]

That's what I thought. Everyone is going to spot read what I wrote and simplify it. Read the last part. My argument is NOT about the internet service alone.

Let me spell it out...

Getting and using the internet is just the first step in a several year long process. Those that had AOL dial up in 1995, started using online banking in 2000. If they didn't get internet access until 2000, then they didn't start online banking until 2005. Do I need to continue?

The internet access was only one part of the delay.

[Vika NSFW]

Smartphones

Router 4G LTE Wireless







Have You seen such devices?
Put it in highest place in the building or on pole with USB alimentation.

[calkob]

Mate you really are not seeing the bigger picture, and are very backward looking, thech can change over night, hold on to your hat over the next 3 years....

[NeuroticFish]

If 10% of the ones with proper internet would own BTC it would be enough to take off.
Your calculation is good for Dogecoin imo.

[Anddos]

I think Google is working on this with the world wide blimp/weather balloon network they want to put in place.

[commandrix]

Have you contacted your phone company about this? I was actually in your situation not that long ago and we finally figured out that we could get DSL out where we live. DSL runs over your phone line, but because it uses a different kind of signal (digital), it doesn't interfere with your phone service (analog). I know more people are dumping their land lines lately, but most houses are still wired for phone service and, if you have at least one functional phone jack in your house, you could probably get DSL.

But you are right about lack of Internet service being a possible obstacle for Bitcoin adoption. A lot of Internet companies never bothered to expand into disadvantaged regions because they think there's no market in areas where nobody can afford to pay for Internet service. One thing I'd like to see is free access to Wi-Fi in public places in these regions and everybody gets a cheap tablet. That would be a good start for getting more people on the road to access to things like Bitcoin and online marketplaces where they can buy and sell to their hearts' content. You'd think capitalists would love this idea of more people "earning money -- and spending money!"

[Wapinter]

Internet connectivity is growing with faster pace.Even when I would be done posting this,more people and area would be connected to internet.

[OgNasty]

If there is one problem that the BTC community doesn't need to worry about solving, it is this.  The amount of capital getting thrown at expanding the reach of the internet makes the Bitcoin market cap pale in comparison.

[alani123]

Bitcoin is still in a phase that cannot support mainstream adoption, the mempool gets clogged even with 3 transactions per second if they keep coming for a decent amount of time. There's a lot of discussion about this scalability issue at the moment and hopefully we'll see it being addressed in a viable way. On the plus side, pushing a bitcoin transaction (if you have the software installed on your machine) doesn't use up that much bandwidth, so someone could transact bitcoin in most of the world with a data plan and a mobile device.

[achow101]

I have actually thought of this and I agree that it is somewhat of a legitimate concern especially for third world countries where it is very difficult to access the internet with a speed good enough for doing stuff with Bitcoin. There are several unrelated projects which work to get internet access to everyone such as Google's Project Loon. However, I think the Bitcoin community should come up with their own project for Bitcoin specifically.

I think we should make a Bitcoin Radio network where nodes can connect to each other over radio to relay blocks and transactions. If we get a few cubesats then this radio network can be spread across the world and used for connecting people to Bitcoin without the need for internet.

[maokoto]

Exactly. If it is a problem in some locations in USA, just imagine in less advanced coutries. But internet adoption will be enough to consider it an absolute success.

[European Central Bank]

I've got family in Africa. You'd be pretty goddamn amazed where great coverage appears. I agree that it's kinda shitty in a lot of places but that's gonna change.

[spb25]

Bigger picture? Um, if I am 4 hours from NYC and I don't have reliable internet in 2016, who is missing the bigger picture?

Technology only changes quickly when there is a market to exploit, "mate."

The cost to bring high speed internet to remote areas is still too expensive relative to the potential profit.

People in Africa may have access to internet, just like I have ACCESS to internet. Access isn't the issue.

In order for this to be used as a currency, a person needs to be able to carry it with them. I sincerely doubt that rural areas in Africa are carrying a smartphone.

Moreover, IF this technology somehow makes its way into rural areas, it will be another several years before people trust enough to turn their money into a QR code.

There are many many more years to go before there are any real gains in bitcoin.

And I'll bet my BTC that the current price is higher than the ten percent. It'll take a lot more than 10 percent adoption to see the gains you think you'll see.

[aardvark15]

This is the reason I believe that fiat currencies will always be needed even if bitcoin is around forever.  There is a place for both to exist.

[tobacco123]

I think this is indeed an issue that any digital currency will need some sort of connectivities to work. Like what have been discussed, many companies are working on this with ideas such as wifi drones.

Let's look at the telephone network- just 100 years ago not many people has even heard of it... But now it is everywhere... This is just like the blocksize debate that, with time will solve itself.

[spb25]

I have actually thought of this and I agree that it is somewhat of a legitimate concern especially for third world countries where it is very difficult to access the internet with a speed good enough for doing stuff with Bitcoin. There are several unrelated projects which work to get internet access to everyone such as Google's Project Loon. However, I think the Bitcoin community should come up with their own project for Bitcoin specifically.

I think we should make a Bitcoin Radio network where nodes can connect to each other over radio to relay blocks and transactions. If we get a few cubesats then this radio network can be spread across the world and used for connecting people to Bitcoin without the need for internet.

Yes, that is sort of what I was saying. However, the second part is trust. Right now, the easiest way to purchase BTC is probably Coinbase. By easiest, I mean both simplicity and not intimidating. Local bitcoins does not look professional enough yet. The website looks like a scam to a newbie.

To purchase BTC on Coinbase, you have to supply a checking account number. That is also intimidating for most people. That is a huge, huge, obstacle.

Yes, this will change as tech progresses, but that isn't my point. My point is that for people that do not routinely use the internet, there is no way they are going to trust it with their money. You might as well ask them to go swimming in a pond full of piranhas.

Most of the people I know around my community still don't trust Amazon. They are intimidated by typing a credit card number on the computer.

Actually, I shouldn't say most. That is an exaggeration. I know a lot of people that are afraid to use Amazon.

[franky1]

to be a miner you need reliable and constant internet... and millions of dollars invested in equipment. and so if you can afford the ASICS then getting a couple satalite units tethered together is no issue

to be a full node requires reliable and constant internet... and the desire and motivation to not just be a user but to be a dedicated part of the network. there is no reason for everyone to be dedicated. and with an estimated 2mill people only 0.3% are running nodes. so i would say 0.3%-1% is a sufficient about of decentralized distribution ongoing.

as for regular users. if you have no internet then you wont know, want or need bitcoin. but even if you have basic internet just to write stuff on this forum. then you have enough internet capability to run a phone app/lite client.

[cjmoles]

I somewhat agree with the OP....I live in the mountains of California so there are places that are blacked out completely.  However, we're talking about the United States here with it's somewhat unique economical system.  We pay for what we want here....so, satellite service, while available in most areas, is costly.  In other regions of the world their economic system is different, so many have access to the internet via satellite or local "hotspots" which are provided to them by their economic structure.  There are also foundations, such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which not only provide satellite access in these regions but also provide the devices to connect to them as well.

So, yes, there are many spots in the US where access to the internet is precarious, but that's mostly a result of our economic system.  The world is pretty much blanketed by satellite service....whether or not one utilizes that service is just a matter of economics.  The same with prescription drugs in the US; they are available to us here in the US with a huge overhead, but they're cheap, if not free, in other regions.  The fact that internet service is difficult for some of us to connect to in the US is further evidence that our economic system needs to be decentralized.