0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting]

[FrueGreads]

I truly believe that it is possible to win from sports betting. If not I would not be running a tipster competition in the forum. We are in the fifth month now, and we keep seeing proof that it is possible to make good profit from it. The only problem I see here is the starting bankroll. Like you said there is no margin for error. I believe in bankroll management is a key aspect to be able to profit, that is one of the reasons why we have a 5% max bet stake size in our competition.

In your case with just 0.001, you can't do that, so it will be hard I think.

[vendetahome]

Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC?

My investigation begins with the belief that it is possible to gain profit by sports betting. From what little I have read on the topic how I think I should approach this:

1. Figure out which side is more likely to win. How? Follow a betting system/strategy, create a simple prediction model, and follow other knowledgeable tipsters picks in areas I do not follow.

2. Get the best possible odds on every wager. Compare odds between bookmakers, and pay attention to timing when bets are placed during the day/week to get the best possible odds.

3. Look out for errors on posted odds/lines, and look for scalping/arbitrage/sure bet opportunities. Possibly lay off risk on bets by betting the other side using live betting once your team is up.

4. Track all wagers, graph results to know how you are doing, and learn/analyze what you are doing good and bad from past bets so you can adapt.

5. Adjust bet sizes to where you cannot lose everything from a bad string of results. I've read between 0.5% and 5% per bet, depending upon how confident/how much risk you want to take on. It seems to make sense to increase bet sizes when your bankroll grows, and decrease wager sizes when you are losing. It also makes sense if an event comes along that presents a unique opportunity where it's clear you have a large advantage that you should bet more on it. (These two ideas are kind of contradictory and I'm not sure how I feel about it.)

6. Take advantage of sportsbook bonus programs, promotions, and free bets.

My first concern is the amount I am starting with: 0.001 BTC. All of the above makes sense if you have a large bankroll, but if you only have $0.43 it does not seem to make sense to be betting 1% of that per bet. I suppose it takes money to make money... and I suppose I am going to have to risk it all to start. This does not seem to be the smart thing to do. Many bitcoin sportsbooks have 0.001 as a minimum wager amount. I'm going to have to be ultra selective in what I choose to bet on. I'm going to have to figure out how to research a sporting event, what is important to pay attention to, and what is just noise...

odds usually says you which team will win, but if you're sure thatit will be tie, like  in football game, bet on tie not team

and you should choose main games, like basketball and tennis, maybe soccer too, a lot of games each week so you always will have where to bet

[niagwai]

NHL: The LA Kings are the lowest scoring team in the Western Conference, and second lowest scoring team in all the NHL, scoring an average of 4.8 goals per match. The Washington Captials have had their last 5 games in a row go under 5.5 goals.

WSH goalie HOLTBY: 2.28 GAA, and LA goalie QUICK: 2.24 GAA.

I expect there to be few goals in the match, so I am risking 0.001 BTC on under 4.5 goals @2.59 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ee2b477NDBZTkwzSmFoWTJOR2h5WjhzQXdWZz09/r/595422/

http://www.flashscore.com/match/Q5b9szoq/#match-summary

*
LA Kings opened the first period quickly scoring three goals. Holtby did not play well. The huge deficit changed the dynamic of the game, and Washington took more risks going forward. Somehow they came back from 0-3 in the third period with three goals of their own taking the game into OT.

Both teams did not perform to their average past performance as they let in more goals. Maybe it is wrong of me to expect a player or team to perform to their average past performance. There has to be more of a range a team/player is expected to play in. I suppose I did not consider the range of possible performance, and the range of probable performance of both teams. What are a team's/player's limits? What are the capable of, what are they not capable of? These are questions I need to consider more.

profit (-0.0065 btc)

[hua_hui]

NHL: The LA Kings are the lowest scoring team in the Western Conference, and second lowest scoring team in all the NHL, scoring an average of 4.8 goals per match. The Washington Captials have had their last 5 games in a row go under 5.5 goals.

WSH goalie HOLTBY: 2.28 GAA, and LA goalie QUICK: 2.24 GAA.

I expect there to be few goals in the match, so I am risking 0.001 BTC on under 4.5 goals @2.59 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ee2b477NDBZTkwzSmFoWTJOR2h5WjhzQXdWZz09/r/595422/

http://www.flashscore.com/match/Q5b9szoq/#match-summary

very reasonable sounded. i am very interested in this match. hope that things will turn out well for u. keep an eye on this. gd luck.

[niagwai]

Soccer (Romania, Cupa Ligii): Concordia has only scored one goal in its last 4 games, and are just in terrible form. In addition Dinamo Bucuresti has held a dominant record against Concordia as well (9 wins, 3 draws, and only 1 loss). Betting 0.001 BTC on Dinamo Bucuresti:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/dad2712cjR4RWZsLzZRbERraVFFV0dHY3NFZz09/r/595422/

http://www.flashscore.com/match/SYfojg0j/#match-summary

*
Concordia is up 3-0. What happened? Concordia was more efficient, scored 3 goals on only 7 attempts on goal. Concordia/Dinamo had equal possession (51-49), Dinamo slightly more shots on goal attempted (7-12), Dinamo had many more corners (1-9), yet Concordia had 5 saves on goal, and Dinamo had 0 saves.

These stats do not do a good enough job at explaining how Concordia achieved this result. I don't know what happened, and I don't understand how I can gain an understanding of what happened only from the stats on flashscore. There is so much that happens during a game that is not recorded. What is important that isn't being recorded? Then, looking at what is actually recorded, the stats can sometimes show what happened, yet other times they can be downright unimportant or misleading. Even if they are perfectly good, if I don't correctly interpret what the numbers mean then I'm in trouble.

Something is going terribly wrong in how I am analyzing soccer matches. I need to think about what I am doing wrong, and clearly identify it so I can at least begin to change how I am going about things.

profit (-0.0075 BTC)

[zeaderza]

I follow you.I like this type of challenge from 0.001 btc to 1 btc or other amount.
I think you use easymoney with high oods.

[niagwai]

I think it's essential to watch actual matches live, sometimes you can feel in your gut if certain player or team can beat the other if you watched them long enough before, no stats will give you that.

I agree when watching a sport sometimes you can just intuitively see things. Sometimes you can get better odds than you would have had prematch. You can see how the players are actually performing on the day as opposed to guessing. I've not tried live betting much yet. Maybe I will experiment with it more. I see that Nitrogen Sports is great for betting prematch, but has limited live betting options. Other sites like Direct Bet, BetCoin, and CloudBet seem to have more options during play. Anybody: what is the best BTC sportsbook for live betting?

On the flip side one nice thing about betting is you don't have to always watch the game. If you are betting many, many games it might not be possible to watch, or you might not have access to a live stream of the event. It might even be not interesting to watch. You don't like the sport, the game's not competitive, you have more important things to do with your time, but hey it's still possible to take a position on a game where you believe the odds are favorable and get paid if you are correct.

While watching a game I would be concerned about errors in short term decision making, emotions playing a part of that. When you're watching a tennis match and identifying with a player, or a display of skill they just put on, maybe it's possible to be blinded and take an unreasonable position.

Games change so dynamically with seconds being the difference between goal and near miss. If you are caught in heat of the moment, and asking yourself "is this the right time to place my wager?", you really need to know what you are doing, analyze the situation now, analyze if the odds are favorable now, predict what you think is going to happen in the near future with the game situation/odds--all of this almost instantly before the next game changing event affects the odds again.

In other words you have less time to think. Time could be your enemy. Every second the odds are changing as a match progresses. Whether they are changing in your favor or not has to be repeatedly assessed. When should you close out your position/hedge and guarantee a certain loss or profit, and when should you let the bet ride until the conclusion of the event? It just gets so complex as you're working against time... well, I guess it only gets complex if you make it complex.

[shanem]

0.001 BTC to 1 BTC challenge is extremely difficult. You need to win 10 straight games at 2.00 odds in a row and use all your capital + winning to make it to 1 BTC. If you can win 10 straight games in a row at 2.00 odds consistently, you will become very very rich.

[CryptoBjorn]

0.001 BTC to 1 BTC challenge is extremely difficult. You need to win 10 straight games at 2.00 odds in a row and use all your capital + winning to make it to 1 BTC. If you can win 10 straight games in a row at 2.00 odds consistently, you will become very very rich.

Yes indeed. But you need to have play really safe and that is hard. You will always lose more money than you win money.
So you must be smart to do that. And maybe also be very lucky. I hope that you can make it possible.

[niagwai]

Tennis: The majority of Yanina Wickmayer's matches are on hard court (174-111 hard only record). Today she's playing vs Polona Hercog who plays the majority of her matches on clay court (200-79 clay only record). Yet when you look at Hercog's hard court history you find she does not win win nearly as many matches--less than 50% (85-92 hc record).

They have never played each other before, but today they are playing in the first round of WTA Indian Wells. I am predicting Wickmayer will win because she has performed well on hard court in the past, while Hercog simply has not. Betting 0.001 BTC on Wickmayer @1.548 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/3873b04K2p1R2ZnSEFnWkRaU2MrUG9QVk8wQT09/r/595422/

http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415623

*
Wickmayer won 2-1. She lost the first set 0-6, then won the next two 6-4, 6-4. I wonder why she lost the first set 0-6? Maybe tennis players can conserve energy by conceding a set when down. Is it worth holding a serve in a losing set? I'm not familiar with the strategy, if it is one, and I wonder what players employ this strategy often?

profit (-0.00695 BTC)

[niagwai]

I hope for you that Wickmayer wins, but if you watched those girls play you'd know that this match is total coin-flip, odds should be 1.85:1.85 or something. Lol, ok i'll stop annoying you with my stupid comments.

I don't mind it at all! The whole reason I made a thread instead of just a word document is to hopefully have conversation, and learn about what I'm doing right/wrong and share it.

First off a coin flip is 50/50. A bookmaker would not give you 50/50 odds on the flip. Bookmakers charge you an amount for taking your bet. This commission for running the sportsbook is called the vigorish, vig, or juice. Instead of the coinflip being 2.00/2.00 odds the sportsbook will charge 10% vig and the odds will become 1.9/1.9. We want to bet at sportsbooks with the best odds to get the highest payout possible on our bet. If the same odds are being offered on an event across all sportsbooks (which is not the case usually) then the best odds will be the place with the least vig. Since there is not an even amount of money being bet at all books, and books adjust their lines independently (some being slower or quicker to adjust for changes in odds), there's often a huge difference in the odds between events.

Anyway, considering all this above... if Wick-Hercog was 50-50 the true odds would be 2.00/2.00. If a sportsbook had a 5% vig then it'd be 1.95/1.95. Looking at the available odds prematch for Wick-Hercog:
http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/usa/wta-indian-wells/hercog-polona-wickmayer-yanina-trfpSjn3/
At Pinnacle Wick opened around @1.61 and closed @1.55; Hercog opened @2.45 and closed @2.61. If the true odds of either winning was 50/50, then Hercog would be the better play hands down. Bet Hercog every time if this is the case, and in the long run over many games this would be profitable.

The whole damn tricky thing is determining what the true odds of an event occurring are. Wick-Hercog can't be 50/50. Tennis can be a sport where it's one person versus another, so it should be easier to examine than team sports. If two people are equal in every way then they will be 50/50 to win. The problem is that no one's equal, and their abilities change over time, and through different conditions. People have flaws, advantages and disadvantages. I suppose you would have to think about every possible variable in a match, and then test to see if those variables really matter in the outcome.

I know that people create models to predict the outcome of a match, but I don't really know what goes into making one. It would be cool to learn how to make one, and check if it is effective or not. If you made one you would need to feed it data all of the time that you get from somewhere. It would be a huge hassle to manually enter it all so you would need some way of automatically getting it, or hiring someone to get it. At some point the model is going to be like the mouse--if you give a mouse a cookie, it's going to ask for some milk as well. Then he'll ask for a straw. He'll finish and ask for a napkin, then a mirror to check if he has a milk mustache... the last thing you need is a model with a milk mustache. Irregardless of potential challenges it's something that would be awesome to look into.

[Gina83]

first I want to say GOOD LUCK!! anything's possible!!
but of course u gotta be lucky though.. skills is a must... but luck is what  need to win.  I won about 0.004 mbtc from 20 freespins at betchain, awhile back... about 3-4 months ago.. with that 0.004, I turned it into 24. btc.  but of course that was from playing slots. so I believe that its possible, when you're feeing lucky..

[niagwai]

NHL: Minnesota has won their last two games with Edmonton this year. Edmonton is the bottom team in the Western Conference of the NHL. Minnesota's Kuemper 2.28 GAA at home, Oilers Talbot outstanding 1.19 GAA streak over 5 recent games (with exception of Sharks game), but against Minnesota Talbot is 0-2 and 4.13 GAA. I am betting against Talbot playing in Minnesota, and I figure he will fail to win in Minnesota yet again if not because his performance, because of his team. Betting 0.00155 BTC on the Minnesota Wild @1.561 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/8b5c759MDNLOGF2dXJtUlRZQ3c3cGtMTW9Sdz09/r/595422/

http://www.flashscore.com/match/jaUDZf6l/#match-summary

*
Minnesota lost a close 1-2 game. Allowing only 2 goals is a great job by Kuemper. Minnesota and the Devils had about even shots (30-25), and about even blocked shots (15-18). Minnesota dominated faceoffs (40-15). Minnesota only committed 2 penalties to the Devil's 4, but Minnesota went 0-4 on the power play. The game was tied until about 7 minutes left when the Devils actually won a faceoff which quickly turned into a 2v2 iso into a good shot beating the goalie. Minnesota had a power play directly after but their offense was apparently asleep tonight. Ultimately their offense failed to click against a team that is not very good, if you look at their 5v5 stats the Oilers are 3rd from the bottom: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201516&sit=5v5&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCT

So what other reasons are there for Minnesota losing aside from simply being outscored? I'm not sure. I need to think about what affects the outcome of a hockey game. I don't know the players, so I don't know if the lineups who started are better or worse than any other day. If anyone is unhealthy or injured I just did not know. I know that Minnesota is barely out of a playoff spot, and they do have motivation to win games to get into that spot. I'm having trouble understanding this result still. I guess NHL hockey teams are close to each other in overall skill, and I suppose that any team can beat another on any night. That's almost giving in though and saying oh it's just random results, it's the way the puck bounces, roulette on ice... scratch that jazz.

How often do NHL teams win this year? (Warning, this is painful to read, was just trying to put down my thought process, skip to bold for conclusion.) So far this season home teams win 42% of the time, draws happen 23% of the time, and away teams win 35% of the time. Right now the best record is the Washington Capitals who are 49-18, so they win 73% of the time. The bottom of the standings is the Winnipeg Jets at 27-40, so they win 40% of the time. Tonight's bet Wild-Oilers, what are their records? Wild are 31-37, so they win 48% of the time. Oliers are 27-43, so they win 38.5% of the time... and these stats are including overtime. Let's look at regulation time: Minnesota is 29-27 in regulation--(win 42.6%), and have 12 draws (17% of the time) (lose 40.4%). Oilers are 16-36 in regulation--(win 22%), and have 18 draws (25% of the time) (lose 53%). The prematch odds on the game were Wild @1.92, Draw @3.97, Oilers @3.74. The overround is 2.13% so implied probabilities for regulation time are: Wild (49.49%), Draw (26.03%), Oilers (24.48%). The implied odds are very similar to their season averages. It seems that to take the Draw and Oilers there is a significantly better chance of this happening according to their season averages: as we looked up above, Wild win in regulation 42.6% of the time, so the draw and opposing team win 57.4% of the time. The implied chance of draw and Oilers is 50.11% which is 7.29% less likely than the season average (57.4%). If the current season average is truly an accurate indicator of Minnesota's performance then there's a +7.29% chance of Draw and Oilers occurring that is not accounted for correctly. Draw and Oilers has value as a bet because there's a greater chance of it occurring (according to the season average) than the sportsbook odds suggest... possibly we should have bet that instead!

Nhl wins info from http://www.betexplorer.com/hockey/usa/nhl/

profit (-0.0085 BTC)

[niagwai]

NHL: NJ Devils Backup Keith Kinkaid has allowed 10 goals in his last two starts. In NJ Devils last 5 games they are 1-4, and all 4 losses were by more than two goals. I'm betting against this goalie Kinkaid, betting 0.001 BTC on Sharks -1.5 goals @2.25 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/951a193SEZqMlJyNUVGMmpPaHRQeVRmdVphUT09/r/595422/
http://www.flashscore.com/match/YV1HuEFe/#match-summary

*
Sharks already down 0-2. What's happening? For starters the Sharks are not scoring. Sharks-Devils shots (26-15), Faceoffs (22-23), and the Devils scored in the 2nd period with only 3 shots, and the Devils scored in the 3rd period with only 5 shots. They've made 2 goals in 8 shots, pretty efficient. I don't understand how the game is unfolding and I need to look more into NHL stats. What NHL advanced stats are important to understanding games? There is one thing I did just notice:

This year...
Devils win 51% of their games OT included
Devils win 48.5% of their games at home OT included
Devils win 51.6% of their games on the road OT included

Sharks win 60% of their games OT included
Sharks win 45.5% of their games at home OT included
Sharks win 70% of their games on the road OT included

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-home-and-away-winning-percentages/2015/

Devils win more of their away games than Sharks win home games... Sharks seem to perform worse at home. Why, I have no clue. Devils win 51.6% of their games on the road... Sharks win 45.5% of their games at home. The prematch odds OT Included were Sharks @1.39, Devils @3.26. So according to their season win %s the Devils should have been the play.

I guess the NJ backup goalie Kinkaid is having a good game, and I was mislead by him giving up 10 goals in his last two starts. He's going on a shutout right now. I don't know about his surrounding cast, if they were different for those games. I was wrong about him and the Devils. This is not something that happens often... the announcer just said it's been TWENTY YEARS since the Devils last shut out the Sharks.

I need to make serious adjustments.

profit (-0.0095 BTC)

[martinacar]

NCAAB: BYU averages 83.6 points per game, and Gonzaga averages 79.3 points per game.

Yet their last two meetings they have held eachother much lower:
2/27/16 GON 71-68: line for total was 155.5, ended 139
1/14/16 BYU 69-68 GON: line for total was 162.5, ended 137

For today's game the total is at 150... still too high?

BYU plays an uptempo style with a lot of three point attempts. Gonzaga has good 3pt shot defense, better defense in general. Gonzaga has held 12 straight opponents under 70 points.

The game is a TV game on ESPN2 and is being played on a neutral court at Orleans Las Vegas. The total for the game opened at 151.5 and is down to 150. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 12 games when playing Gonzaga.

I'm predicting that since it is a big game on ESPN2, and in Vegas, it's assumed people are betting on the (rightful) favorite Gonzaga -3 and the over 150.5 total. Their last two meetings this year were only decided by three points, they were close contests, but again the total was off by over 15 points both times this year!

I am assuming this trend continues, and am risking 0.002 BTC on the under 150.5 @1.98 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422/

As someone that follows a good bit of basketball, that's a solid bet. GL with that.

That would be really nice. But that is very hard to let that happen. Than you must play very safe and that is very important.
If you dont play safe and than you can lose a lot of money and that will be not good, it will be all wasted.

[Nameless Coin]

It is hard to get that. I think it is impossible and that cant happen. You will always lose more money than you win money.
Or you must be very smart and lucky, but that happens not that often so it will not possible I think.