WARNING: crypto-currencies are very likely going to experience a crash soon

[phibay]

OP, are you shorting bitcoins? If your predictions are correct you can make a killing this year. I kinda hope BTC would stabilize and people should stop spreading FUD every year. Any whales here? Your thoughts on this?

[1715143524]

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[r0ach]

If Bitcoin crashed for a halving, the project would basically be dead in the water forever.  There is far too much money invested in the Bitcoin ecosystem where people would never allow that to happen.  Not sure how Anonymint doesn't realize Bitcoin will be pumped for it.  The price won't even be allowed to remain flat.  What's more likely to happen?  A bunch of greedy miners who have invested millions turn off their miners if the price doesn't increase, or they simply stop selling mined coins temporarily and also manipulate the market upward to continue mining at profit. 

The price will either go up organically or it will be manipulated in that direction.  There is no other way around it.  The entirity of China is probably colluding to do so in cartel fashion already.  The only way the price could crash is with some crazy deflationary death spiral in the wider economy, but things like home values, cars, etc would also be crashing in price, and we are simply not experiencing that right now.

[hv_]

The crashing is surely related to the centralization / scaling issues we see all coming to the surface and also with the hyped expectations with some new cryptos that will fall on all of our feet soon.

[traumschiff]

If Bitcoin crashed for a halving, the project would basically be dead in the water forever.  There is far too much money invested in the Bitcoin ecosystem where people would never allow that to happen.  Not sure how Anonymint doesn't realize Bitcoin will be pumped for it.  The price won't even be allowed to remain flat.  What's more likely to happen?  A bunch of greedy miners who have invested millions turn off their miners if the price doesn't increase, or they simply stop selling mined coins temporarily and also manipulate the market upward to continue mining at profit.  

The price will either go up organically or it will be manipulated in that direction.  There is no other way around it.  The entirity of China is probably colluding to do so in cartel fashion already.  The only way the price could crash is with some crazy deflationary death spiral in the wider economy, but things like home values, cars, etc would also be crashing in price, and we are simply not experiencing that right now.

Since Anonymint posted the OP half of the alts reached a new ATH and the other half went from sleeper to rising

10/10

I also fully agree with your post, no way Bitcoin won't rise with the amount of exposure it got in the recent months.

[wpalczynski]

If Bitcoin crashed for a halving, the project would basically be dead in the water forever.  There is far too much money invested in the Bitcoin ecosystem where people would never allow that to happen.  Not sure how Anonymint doesn't realize Bitcoin will be pumped for it.  The price won't even be allowed to remain flat.  What's more likely to happen?  A bunch of greedy miners who have invested millions turn off their miners if the price doesn't increase, or they simply stop selling mined coins temporarily and also manipulate the market upward to continue mining at profit.  

The price will either go up organically or it will be manipulated in that direction.  There is no other way around it.  The entirity of China is probably colluding to do so in cartel fashion already.  The only way the price could crash is with some crazy deflationary death spiral in the wider economy, but things like home values, cars, etc would also be crashing in price, and we are simply not experiencing that right now.

Since Anonymint posted the OP half of the alts reached a new ATH and the other half went from sleeper to rising

10/10

I also fully agree with your post, no way Bitcoin won't rise with the amount of exposure it got in the recent months.

A lot of new money has found its way into cryptos in the last few weeks.

[Sark]

If Bitcoin crashed for a halving, the project would basically be dead in the water forever.  There is far too much money invested in the Bitcoin ecosystem where people would never allow that to happen.  

The problem for Bitcoin though is that a lot of the investment into the network and supporting infrastructure can be repurposed fairly easily to work with other crypto currencies.

If the devs and all the other movers and shakers continue to plod along thinking they are "too big to fail", they are in for a rude surprise. There is no government backing, and the corporate backing can quickly flow to a new blockchain.

[Videodrome]

I believe Martin Armstrong has the correct model of what will transpire over the next few years.

So your main source is this smoke seller. A magician of economic prediction.

With his magic sphere  he already knows what will happen to the price of gold in the next days ,and he will tell you this TOP SECRET information in a few pages(edit : and a video!!) for only $ 500!

But you have to hurry! It is going to happen soon! Let's buy my 30 pages  guide for Only 500 dollar!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/2016-gold-report-goes-out-today/


Dear TPTB_need_war you look like an intelligent person, do not to give money to this scammer.

The world is "short" on dollar?I have a super computer with a super algoritm and i can proove it?

C'mon is like the scientology of trading. AND THIS IS NOT A VALID SOURCE. IS A PRODUCT SCHEME NAMED AMSTRONG ECONOMICS.

WE HAVE SUPER COMPUTERS!!AHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA

Our computer employs International Capital Flow Analysis that conforms to quantitative
standards by monitoring interactions across major world economies. This enables us to
obtain consistent long-term forecasts that reveal the complex system in its entirety, and
not just a subset of all the interesting operations and processes of the system.
We hope our detailed models will act as your roadmap to the markets to help you trade
with confidence. Once you understand how the economy functions, you will be able to
separate myth from reality, and can observe from an interconnected perspective how
markets move in one direction versus another. Soon, you will begin to understand the
trends driving the world capital markets, achieving the crucial “feel” that guides all
successful traders.

tries to compare with a real one:

http://moslereconomics.com/


BTW this thread is really interesting.

[r0ach]

Who needs Armstrong when I've posted exactly when the last two Bitcoin pumps would occur and when the drop would occur and where it would go:

Rise #1 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1200114.0

Rise #1 dump forecast:  http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg13552132#msg13552132

Rise #2 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg13866938#msg13866938

^The summary of that is, I went all in at $230, sold at $44x, went all in again at $375.

Or you can follow the famous MatTheCat reverse indicator and just do the opposite of whatever he does:

Fucking rat cocksuckers.

6 fucking BTC trade with Stop Order

[Spoetnik]

OP, are you shorting bitcoins? If your predictions are correct you can make a killing this year. I kinda hope BTC would stabilize and people should stop spreading FUD every year. Any whales here? Your thoughts on this?

I wish people would stop crying FUD (to defend bad behavior year after year)

And "Crash"

It's been dying a slow and continues death for a long looooong time now.
How many YEARS have i been here predicting it to people who even deny it's happening ?

Take Polo mod's who called me a FUDster when i said "Altcoins were dying off over time"
I was told i was FUD'ing by Polo mod's and then told i was a liar making up false comments
then not long after that i got banned.

They are liars.
They are deceitful.
They are protecting their "groomed" victims.

I said the user base across crypto has been decimated and shrunk by a large amount last 2 years or so..
Since the great late 2013 frenzy.. i was told this is pure lies and that Polo's user base had been an all-time high
and they are getting more new users now than when they did when i visited them in early 2014'ish
which i might add back then the chat box scrolled by at mach 2 back then..
It was pretty much impossible to get a comment seen by anyone it scrolled up & away so fast.
And many of you know that because they were there with me !
Apparently that didn't happen.. must have been a dream huh ?
I told the Polo mod this part.. and i said look around you can go almost all night here with not 1 comment.
it wasn't like that !

I said the Altcoin SCENE as a whole.. Polo plays a small part of.
Whether that dumb fuck scammy idiot Polo mod retard wants to spout off crazy unprovable claims is another matter.
The fact is crypto died off hard..

My town had North America's 2nd ATM for BTC in Kelowna (first being Vancouver CAN)
It was closed loooooooong ago boys & girls.

Try spending your "denial coins" at the store and see what it buys you..

PS:
Poloniex your a sack of scammy ass bullshit.. fucking idiots.
You stupid losers lost my respect 1,000x over again.. eat a bag of dicks.
And i can't want until you take your turn to cry "I was hacked" i will laugh my ass off ROFL

[eternalgloom]

If Bitcoin crashed for a halving, the project would basically be dead in the water forever.  There is far too much money invested in the Bitcoin ecosystem where people would never allow that to happen.  Not sure how Anonymint doesn't realize Bitcoin will be pumped for it.  The price won't even be allowed to remain flat.  What's more likely to happen?  A bunch of greedy miners who have invested millions turn off their miners if the price doesn't increase, or they simply stop selling mined coins temporarily and also manipulate the market upward to continue mining at profit.  

The price will either go up organically or it will be manipulated in that direction.  There is no other way around it.  The entirity of China is probably colluding to do so in cartel fashion already.  The only way the price could crash is with some crazy deflationary death spiral in the wider economy, but things like home values, cars, etc would also be crashing in price, and we are simply not experiencing that right now.

Since Anonymint posted the OP half of the alts reached a new ATH and the other half went from sleeper to rising

10/10

I also fully agree with your post, no way Bitcoin won't rise with the amount of exposure it got in the recent months.

A lot of new money has found its way into cryptos in the last few weeks.

This kind of reminds me of when Bitcoin prices sharply rose at the end of 2013, those events were also followed by a massive crash.
I would not be too surprised if that happened again this year, but it's still a bit too soon I think.

If you look at Ethereum, there is still way too much buy support and no-one has really started dumping their coins yet, but this could change any time soon.

[RouletteRun]

No it means the Chinese mining cartel owns your Bitcoin. They can block any transaction they want once we go into war. You are not Chinese, they block your transactions. They control 65% of the hashrate and on the next halving the marginal miners go, which means Chinese ASIC miners will gain greater percentage. They can then extort high transaction fees or in any case some big mess, same as what (well intentioned) top-down control did to China's arable land.

What about the possibility of PoS coins such as BlackCoin or PeerCoin that have no need to be mined, thus they cannot be controlled by mining concerns?

[Ayers]

No it means the Chinese mining cartel owns your Bitcoin. They can block any transaction they want once we go into war. You are not Chinese, they block your transactions. They control 65% of the hashrate and on the next halving the marginal miners go, which means Chinese ASIC miners will gain greater percentage. They can then extort high transaction fees or in any case some big mess, same as what (well intentioned) top-down control did to China's arable land.

What about the possibility of PoS coins such as BlackCoin or PeerCoin that have no need to be mined, thus they cannot be controlled by mining concerns?

they can be controlled by having many coins and staking easy money, there are possible attack even with pos coin, search for it on google, you just need a certain amount to do it

[TPTB_need_war]

Incorrect. They are highly correlated (if a smoothing filter is employed) since 2013. Gold had a rise recently and so did Bitcoin.

I found this chart:

Source:http://allcoinsnews.com/2016/01/29/tradebock-research-finds-that-bitcoin-gold-negative-correlation-has-intensified/


Yes there are periods where it does seem highly correlated, but that chart is actually showing us that most of last year was the opposite. Thoughts?

I said they are highly correlated if a smoothing filter is applied. Gold does a dead-cat pump, then BTC does, repeat. And the overall trend of the two is down since start of 2014 (gold's decent started 2011 but BTC hadn't yet matured and was in the early adopter phase).

The mistake of the above chart is the same reason that Armstrong's computer can detect patterns that humans miss. The above chart only considers one-dimension for the time axis. Whereas, my explanation has 2 dimensions for the time-axis.

[btcbug]

I said they are highly correlated if a smoothing filter is applied. Gold does a dead-cat pump, then BTC does, repeat. And the overall trend of the two is down since start of 2014 (gold's decent started 2011 but BTC hadn't yet matured and was in the early adopter phase).

The mistake of the above chart is the same reason that Armstrong's computer can detect patterns that humans miss. The above chart only considers one-dimension for the time axis. Whereas, my explanation has 2 dimensions for the time-axis.

Any chance you can post a link to a decent chart with filter?

[TPTB_need_war]

I said they are highly correlated if a smoothing filter is applied. Gold does a dead-cat pump, then BTC does, repeat. And the overall trend of the two is down since start of 2014 (gold's decent started 2011 but BTC hadn't yet matured and was in the early adopter phase).

The mistake of the above chart is the same reason that Armstrong's computer can detect patterns that humans miss. The above chart only considers one-dimension for the time axis. Whereas, my explanation has 2 dimensions for the time-axis.

Any chance you can post a link to a decent chart with filter?

The mathematical point I am making is that the correlation can be quite strong when the time axis of gold or BTC is shifted such that they align better. Just slide gold along the time axis, and you see the correlation is much stronger. This sliding variable is another dimension. Armstrong's computer model does this automatically and not just over 2 dimensions, but unbounded dimensional search which is why it requires a supercomputer.

If two things are correlated by only a constant time-shifted, then they are correlated. If something always goes up with the other goes down, that is correlated and if the former always goes down again after going up thus predicting that the other will go up after it goes down. Then the longer-term downtrend since 2014 is dominant and mutually correlated.

[irritant]

...
So March 13/14 is the turning point that should see crisis accelerate outside the USA.
...

March 14 is also Pi day 

[kiklo]

OP, are you shorting bitcoins? If your predictions are correct you can make a killing this year. I kinda hope BTC would stabilize and people should stop spreading FUD every year. Any whales here? Your thoughts on this?

I wish people would stop crying FUD (to defend bad behavior year after year)

And "Crash"

It's been dying a slow and continues death for a long looooong time now.
How many YEARS have i been here predicting it to people who even deny it's happening ?

Take Polo mod's who called me a FUDster when i said "Altcoins were dying off over time"
I was told i was FUD'ing by Polo mod's and then told i was a liar making up false comments
then not long after that i got banned.

They are liars.
They are deceitful.
They are protecting their "groomed" victims.

I said the user base across crypto has been decimated and shrunk by a large amount last 2 years or so..
Since the great late 2013 frenzy.. i was told this is pure lies and that Polo's user base had been an all-time high
and they are getting more new users now than when they did when i visited them in early 2014'ish
which i might add back then the chat box scrolled by at mach 2 back then..
It was pretty much impossible to get a comment seen by anyone it scrolled up & away so fast.
And many of you know that because they were there with me !
Apparently that didn't happen.. must have been a dream huh ?
I told the Polo mod this part.. and i said look around you can go almost all night here with not 1 comment.
it wasn't like that !

I said the Altcoin SCENE as a whole.. Polo plays a small part of.
Whether that dumb fuck scammy idiot Polo mod retard wants to spout off crazy unprovable claims is another matter.
The fact is crypto died off hard..

My town had North America's 2nd ATM for BTC in Kelowna (first being Vancouver CAN)
It was closed loooooooong ago boys & girls.

Try spending your "denial coins" at the store and see what it buys you..

PS:
Poloniex your a sack of scammy ass bullshit.. fucking idiots.
You stupid losers lost my respect 1,000x over again.. eat a bag of dicks.
And i can't want until you take your turn to cry "I was hacked" i will laugh my ass off ROFL

Totally Agree, a Mass Altcoin Extinction Event is on the Horizon.

Thanks for the info about the chat box decline in Poloniex.

Poloniex (Like Crapsty before them) are changing their fee structure to favor trading for the weathly, it was ~6 months after that crapsty took its last breath.

Starts March 20th, 2016
https://poloniex.com/fees/

Every 24 hours, we will calculate the last 30 days of trading volume on your account and dynamically adjust your fees according to the following schedule:
Maker    Taker    Trade Volume (trailing 30 day avg)
0.15%    0.25%    < 600 BTC
0.14%    0.24%    = 600 BTC
0.12%    0.22%    = 1,200 BTC
0.10%    0.20%    = 2,400 BTC
0.08%    0.16%    = 6,000 BTC
0.05%    0.14%    = 12,000 BTC
0.02%    0.12%    = 18,000 BTC
0.00%    0.10%    = 24,000 BTC

I don't know why but it seems like every time these exchanges get into trouble behind the scenes, they start changing their fee structure.
Could just be a coincidence , but a friendly reminder on Poloniex .

Never Leave more coins sitting on an exchange than what you are willing to Lose!!!

Cryptsy changed their Fee structure to favor traders and in less than 6 months they were done , and now Poloniex is doing something similar.   
Starting the 6 month timer.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160920T0001&p0=412&msg=Poloniex+Exchange+Still+Open+or+Forever+Closed!!!&font=cursive

 

[bitboy11]

Which is what I predicted it could do. In May 2015, I stated it would rise over the summer to $320, then decline. Which is what it did. That eventually it would crash below $150, but that it could also rise to the $450 area interim.

So basically you're saying that you predicted it could go UP or DOWN!
Then you really haven't predicted anything!

Everyone already knows this...

[TPTB_need_war]

Which is what I predicted it could do. In May 2015, I stated it would rise over the summer to $320, then decline. Which is what it did. That eventually it would crash below $150, but that it could also rise to the $450 area interim.

So basically you're saying that you predicted it could go UP or DOWN!
Then you really haven't predicted anything!

Everyone already knows this...

You disingenuous trolls will never stop twisting what I wrote into something I didn't write.

I predicted a month or in advance the precise price $320 and timing "summer" that the price would rise and peak at, and then decline from. That sort of exact prediction provides an opportunity to go long and then short, profiting in both directions.

And in fact, there are some people in this forum who can vouch that they shorted at $320 based on my recommendation and they made money on it. I know who they are.

[ProfessionalGoogler]

Everything this guy says is more irrational speculation.  

This guy is the ultimate troll, like the guy trying to pretend he is the creator of Bitcoin.