Diff thread Mar 18 to Mar 31? picks are closed.... prize = 0.1 btc

[philipma1957]

this thread is done  new thread is here
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=post;board=81.0





Okay last jump we had a winner.

link below
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387464.0


+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.4 = ingiltere

+5.0 = tlhIlwI
+5.1 = wlefever
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = alh

Difficulty History

Date                    Difficulty                Change   Hash Rate

Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s

Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796          18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900         8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643        10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s


So if you look above last two jumps were decent maybe rates are going to continue to be stable for a while maybe not.

contest rules are not changed.

we start picks on the 600th block and end picks on the 1200th


uᴉoɔʇᴉq Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   171,099,415,155 (+3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 14.2 days >>> we start  when this is 1416
Hashrate(?):   1,183,484,225 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   





uᴉoɔʇᴉq Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   171,099,415,155 (+3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 14.2 days>>> end picks at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,183,484,225 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   


picks are 1.1    1.2   1.3  plus or minus

below are a few of last months picks including the winner

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.4 = ingiltere

+5.0 = tlhIlwI
+5.1 = wlefever
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = alh




the contest winner is in bold.

okay You need a 30 post minimum
you need to be on site since Jan 31 2016

this is {b]free[/b] so if you make a pick you abide by my rules.
only 1 entry  once you make it  you can not change it.

I now have .5 btc to give away.
This starts at .1 btc but if everyone misses it I will roll it over.

Lastly I plan to add enough btc to this to go 1 week past the ½ ing

At that point I may change the format quite a bit.

Picks do not start until the 600th block but feel free to spec.

[1714799778]

1714799778

[1714799778]

1714799778

[judypug1956]

Did block # 403201 mark first block of this adjustment period?

[buyandhold]

Did block # 403201 mark first block of this adjustment period?

yup. making this the 201st diff period

[philipma1957]

Block 403201 was made at

 403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30


403241 (Main Chain)   2016-03-18 17:18:25


40 blocks in  7 hours and 20 minutes   should be  44 blocks so we are real time -10%

[Mikestang]

Congrats to the winner, well guessed!

So basically the last two adjustments have cancelled each other out, I think we can all be happy with that.  Hopefully diff will stay flat now until new hardware makes its way on to the scene.

[notlist3d]

Congratz to winner.  It was under 5 so I feel we all won a little, no big jumps... so that is good.

We are losing value on BTC which stinks.  A little over 10 dollars in a day is not a fun jump.

[philipma1957]

Block 403201 was made at

 403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30


403267 (Main Chain)   2016-03-18 22:40:02


67 blocks in  12 hours and 50 minutes   should be  77 blocks



 so we are " real time "    67/77 -1  = -12.987%   very early but very nice numbers.

[Kexkey]

Congrats ingiltere!

Mining is so surprising!  2015 was a great year to mine.  Can't say so for 2016 up to now...

Anyone has inside info from Bitfury, Bitmain, Canaan or any other manufacturer to help us set the next difficulty change?   

[philipma1957]

Block 403201 was made at

 403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30


403297 (Main Chain)   2016-03-19 03:06:38


97 blocks in  17 hours and 30 minutes   should be  105 blocks



 so we are " real time "    97/105 -1  =  (-7.619%)    very early but very nice numbers.



update  block 403344

403344 (Main Chain)   2016-03-19 11:10:25


so this is the 144 block this jump     and was done in 25 hours and 20 minutes    we should have done 152 blocks  so

144/152 - 1 =  (-5.26%)

Not bad

Below is bitcoinwisdom's future guess it is higher because it uses part of last jump which was a positive number

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   169,085,767,187 (+2.17%)
Adjust time:   After 1872 Blocks, About 13.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,148,412,808 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:15 (3.1 minutes ago)


and here is bitcoin charts

they are more realtime

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   403344
Total BTC   15.334M
 
Difficulty   165496835118
Estimated   164437596179 in 1872 blks
 
Network total   1163073.842 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.89 / 611 s


164437/165496 - 1 =   (-0.639%)

all 3 numbers

-5.26% real time
+2.17% bitcoinwisdom
-0.639% bitcoincharts

are good numbers.

I will try to keep posting them this adjustment.

I really would love to see the -5% come true.

price is about 410 usd on coinbase.

[alh]

While way hugely early, there isn't any indication of a huge increase coming this time around.

On a related topic: Where do folks get the BTC price since btcquote seems to be stuck at $413.36 for a week or so?

[HagssFIN]

While way hugely early, there isn't any indication of a huge increase coming this time around.

On a related topic: Where do folks get the BTC price since btcquote seems to be stuck at $413.36 for a week or so?

BitcoinWisdom seems to be working ok  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/

[notlist3d]

While way hugely early, there isn't any indication of a huge increase coming this time around.

On a related topic: Where do folks get the BTC price since btcquote seems to be stuck at $413.36 for a week or so?

Value seems to be slow moving which is good and bad.   I want to see 450 again just as I would like a solid raise up.... but don't know how long that will be.

I still can't figure out difficulty trends:
Mar 18 2016    165,496,835,118    4.46%    1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016    158,427,203,767    -3.10%    1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s

And looking to be another slow difficulty (hopefully).  I'm still wondering who the gear was on feb 7th, and feb 19th periods.   I don't think it was bitfury (unless they are really good about keeping quiet).   So leaves in my head bitmain, avalon, or possibly those b-11's.   Or a mix of those.  All still complete guesses though.

[philipma1957]

Block 403201 was made at

 403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30


403446 (Main Chain)   2016-03-20 05:45:52


246 blocks in  44 hours    should be  264 blocks so we are real time

246/264 -1 = (-6.81%)


it is early  but the numbers are good.

next diff would be 154.2   would not this be something

 A long way to go here.

[RichBC]

Well much to early in the period to know what is going on, but the first full Day was -5.56% 136 Blocks, and the Period Run rate so far, 7 Hours in Today is -5.4% but climbing. So here's hoping it will be another low one.

Rich

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   168,615,957,781 (+1.88%)
Adjust time:   After 1729 Blocks, About 12.2 days
Hashrate(?):   1,128,125,554 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:30 (2.7 minutes ago)

price 411



 first this jump Block 403201 was made at

403201 (Main Chain) 2016-03-18 09:50:30
403488 (Main Chain)   2016-03-20 11:29:03


288 blocks should take 2 days or 48 hours

it has taken     49 hours and 40 minutes

we should have made  298 in 49 hours and 40 minutes

so 288/298  - 1 =  (-3.355 %)

picks will start in about 312 blocks or 2 days




we have made 367 blocks in the time we should have made 386

so 367/386-1 =   (-4.92%)   not bad so far  but 1630 blocks left. so we may do well.

[mavericklm]

+1.69% at this moment!

missing the mining world over here!

[RichBC]

So two negative Days and Yesterday the first small positive with +1.39% 146 Blocks. Run rate this period, 9 Hours in Day 3, is -4.6%, but it seems to take 600 - 900 Blocks for any sort of stable position to emerge, we are at the mercy of how much hash is added. But OK so far..... 


Rich

[philipma1957]

So two negative Days and Yesterday the first small positive with +1.39% 146 Blocks. Run rate this period, 9 Hours in Day 3, is -4.6%, but it seems to take 600 - 900 Blocks for any sort of stable position to emerge, we are at the mercy of how much hash is added. But OK so far..... 


Rich

yeah it is very early


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   167,134,746,625 (+0.99%)
Adjust time:   After 1594 Blocks, About 11.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,136,186,659 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:45 (2.6 minutes ago)

and price is 410


https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   403623
Total BTC   15.341M
 
Difficulty   165496835118
Estimated   164059882133 in 1593 blks --------   this is showing negative.
 
Network total   1043857.652 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.29 / 681 s

[TheYankeesWin!]

So are we still waiting for picks?

[Mikestang]

So are we still waiting for picks?

Picks start after the 600th block for the period, so

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Adjust time:    After 1532 Blocks, About 10.8 days

When that reads 1416 blocks picks are open.