Diff thread Mar 18 to Mar 31? picks are closed.... prize = 0.1 btc

[philipma1957]

all picks are closed the
 
final  picks are below:

-3.0 = Amph

-2.5 = HagssFIN

-1.5 = blindminer

-1.2 = philipma1957  since it is my prize money if I win I will roll it back in

-1.0 = Last of the V8s
-0.9  = indiemax

-0.7 = Notist3d
-0.6 = edonkey
-0.5 = Brob12321

-0.3 = Zebedee

-0.1 =kipper01

0.0 = adaseb


+0.3 = tertius993
+0.5 = RichBC
+0.7 = ezeminer
+0.8 = wpt1wpt1
+0.9 = mavericklm
+1.0 = ingiltere
+1.1 = flikflak
+1.2 = mikestang
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 =pusttiu
+1.9 =HerbPean
+3.7 = fr4nkthetank
+4.2 = VirosaGITS

Good luck everyone!



time is ticking down

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   169,662,027,581 (+2.52%)
Adjust time:   After 449 Blocks, About 3.0 days
Hashrate(?):   1,271,860,550 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.5 minutes
Updated:   

[notlist3d]

The good news to is the 424 price right now.  We seem to be holding in 420+ currently... which is nice if we can have a new spot instead of 400.   If that lasts we all really win.

I don't see a huge jump up on difficulty considering S7 current batch say's shipping in 5 working day's.  It makes me wonder if bitmain is shipping and clearing shelves or if they are making a batch and shipping as they make.  I think watching them over next week or two will be interesting.

[alh]

While I forgot to make a guess this round, I probably wouldn't have guessed high enough. Looks to me like it's going to be north of 3%.

As for Bitmain and what it's shipping, I think that anybody that is expecting to receive a pristine newly manufactured device is deluding themselves. They are clearly selling "well tested" gear (i.e. used hardware with a full warranty). There may be some new production hardware mixed in, but the bulk of the latest batch will be used gear, just like it was with S5 in it's last batches. If you were to buy 10 of the latest batch, I'd be stunned if at least 6 weren't obviously used.

I have no idea what they are doing with any newly cleared shelf space.

[RichBC]

So looks like this Period has unfortunately entered a new upward phase. Yesterday was +18.06% with 170 Blocks. Things have calmed down a lot this Morning and the Period to Date Run Rate is, 10 Hours in, +1.36% however there has been a distinct turn up.


Rich

[philipma1957]

So looks like this Period has unfortunately entered a new upward phase. Yesterday was +18.06% with 170 Blocks. Things have calmed down a lot this Morning and the Period to Date Run Rate is, 10 Hours in, +1.36% however there has been a distinct turn up.


Rich

Well looks like an upgrade on the part of bitmaintech.  

So if they pull a s-7 at 4.7th off the shelf they are adding lets guess an 8th 1200 watt  s-9.  And off to the races we go.






we are close to the all time highs of 1300ph  see the rectangles below

[notlist3d]

While I forgot to make a guess this round, I probably wouldn't have guessed high enough. Looks to me like it's going to be north of 3%.

As for Bitmain and what it's shipping, I think that anybody that is expecting to receive a pristine newly manufactured device is deluding themselves. They are clearly selling "well tested" gear (i.e. used hardware with a full warranty). There may be some new production hardware mixed in, but the bulk of the latest batch will be used gear, just like it was with S5 in it's last batches. If you were to buy 10 of the latest batch, I'd be stunned if at least 6 weren't obviously used.

I have no idea what they are doing with any newly cleared shelf space.

And this is the big question.  Will they fill up space with more S7's and they got some quick ROI selling at new low price. Or will something more exciting happen like S7+ (unlikely) or next gen. 

Bitmain has been very quiet on next gen.... but we have to believe they are working on it.  So just a lot unknown but I think next gen will hit us like a rocket on difficulty.

[philipma1957]

we have 356 blocks or so left


Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   169,485,134,881 (+2.41%)
Adjust time:   After 356 Blocks, About 2.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,268,330,281 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.3 minutes
Updated:   


good luck to any one close


0.0 = adaseb


+0.3 = tertius993
+0.5 = RichBC
+0.7 = ezeminer
+0.8 = wpt1wpt1
+0.9 = mavericklm
+1.0 = ingiltere
+1.1 = flikflak
+1.2 = mikestang
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 =pusttiu
+1.9 =HerbPean
+3.7 = fr4nkthetank
+4.2 = VirosaGITS

the ones above are the closest.

[VirosaGITS]

the ones above are the closest.

Sadly, it look like my Pick isint all that crazy anymore, eh?
Hopefully it will remain too high for this round...

[RichBC]

the ones above are the closest.

Sadly, it look like my Pick isint all that crazy anymore, eh?
Hopefully it will remain too high for this round...

Sadly yes.... We are at Period to Date +1.76% and if the latest slope continues we will probably land around +2.5%


Rich

[philipma1957]

the ones above are the closest.

Sadly, it look like my Pick isint all that crazy anymore, eh?
Hopefully it will remain too high for this round...

damn you VirosaGITS   (all in fun not for real)

yep   it is what we deal with  due to bitmaintech's ability to make tons of gear.  With no real completion at the moment.

Plus I suspect they can get short term  1 cent power contracts during certain times of the year.

Say a dam has a lot of rain in March and April  = Excess power and bitmaintech gets a good 3 week rate.

I feel they could have 100 to 200 ph sitting idol in old gear  and if they get a 1 cent contract they fire the stuff up.

An s-3 burning at .75 watts earns 17.00  usd
An s-4 burning at .70 watts earns  34.50 usd
An s-5 burning at .51 watts earns   40.30 usd

that would be in a month 

they may simply have  far more s-7's not deployed

an s-7 makes pretty good money 185 a month at 1 cent power.


So we always face the fact the network may jump up from 1200 ph to 1300 ph in a day

[notlist3d]

the ones above are the closest.

Sadly, it look like my Pick isint all that crazy anymore, eh?
Hopefully it will remain too high for this round...

damn you VirosaGITS   (all in fun not for real)

yep   it is what we deal with  due to bitmaintech's ability to make tons of gear.  With no real completion at the moment.

Plus I suspect they can get short term  1 cent power contracts during certain times of the year.

Say a dam has a lot of rain in March and April  = Excess power and bitmaintech gets a good 3 week rate.

I feel they could have 100 to 200 ph sitting idol in old gear  and if they get a 1 cent contract they fire the stuff up.

An s-3 burning at .75 watts earns 17.00  usd
An s-4 burning at .70 watts earns  34.50 usd
An s-5 burning at .51 watts earns   40.30 usd

that would be in a month 

they may simply have  far more s-7's not deployed

an s-7 makes pretty good money 185 a month at 1 cent power.


So we always face the fact the network may jump up from 1200 ph to 1300 ph in a day

I still wonder about old A1's to on 1 cent contracts.    There are a TON of lketc gear and other A1's in China that never were sold and were in data centers.  I'm starting to wonder if they pulled out and swapped gear without me noticing or if some still have them going on super cheap electric.

I know of a few data centers that were "cheap" but built to house A1's when then first came out.  But my info on what happened to them at this point.... is none.

[philipma1957]

we have 226 blocks or so left

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   168,877,874,330  (+2.04%)
Adjust time:   After 226 Blocks, About 1.5 days
Hashrate(?):   1,270,926,543 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.5 minutes
6 blocks: 57.0 minutes
Updated:   9:55 (2.9 minutes ago)
   


good luck to any one close


0.0 = adaseb


+0.3 = tertius993
+0.5 = RichBC
+0.7 = ezeminer
+0.8 = wpt1wpt1
+0.9 = mavericklm
+1.0 = ingiltere
+1.1 = flikflak
+1.2 = mikestang
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 =pusttiu
+1.9 =HerbPean
+3.7 = fr4nkthetank
+4.2 = VirosaGITS

the ones above are the closest.
As we near the finish a rollover may happen.

[notlist3d]

Were down to 413 on price so have lost the mid 420's we started difficulty period with.  So kinda disappointing on that I keep hoping for new higher bottom.  I wonder if Bitmain cashed in a lot of that S7 btc money or anything.

Biggest thing is wondering what Bitmain's next move is.  They hit sales hard this week.... so wonder if one more S7 big batch that is mastered making cheap.  Or if we see next gen.... which next gen scares the crap out of me on difficulty.

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   169,655,370,982 (+2.51%)
Adjust time:   After 162 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,271,237,726 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.3 minutes
6 blocks: 56.6 minutes
Updated:   19:55 (4.3 minutes ago)

just about a day to go.  a  rollover looks very possible


so far bitmaintech has left this wallet below alone


https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    169,834,611,457 (+2.62%)
Adjust time:    After 158 Blocks, About 1.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,283,236,420 GH/s

up a bit more

small wallet, just 13milions

[RichBC]

So Yesterday was an ok +2.08% and 147 Blocks. However just when you think you know which way this beast is turning we have had an extremely slow start this Morning which has brought the Period to Date Run Rate, 10 Hours in,  down to +1.1%

So about 18 Hours to go, will be interesting to see if this slowdown continues?


Rich

[philipma1957]

So Yesterday was an ok +2.08% and 147 Blocks. However just when you think you know which way this beast is turning we have had an extremely slow start this Morning which has brought the Period to Date Run Rate, 10 Hours in,  down to +1.1%

So about 18 Hours to go, will be interesting to see if this slowdown continues?


Rich

hmmm  they pulled all the s-7's off the shelf that they sold with the coupons and shipped them?

I estimate they sold 400 s-7's so 400 x 4.7 = 18.8 ph  18.8/1300 = 1.44%    which is very close to the drop in hash rate.
 The good thing with that is if true we will be near 0-1% for this jump.

[fr4nkthetank]

Good luck everyone !!!  Just wanted to say how good it feels that the diff is slowing a bit

[philipma1957]

Good luck everyone !!!  Just wanted to say how good it feels that the diff is slowing a bit

yes we could go down to 0

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   167,980,234,990 (+1.50%)
Adjust time:   After 85 Blocks, About 13.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,243,111,905 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes
Updated:   11:30 (3.4 minutes ago)

see drop below




we have made 1930 blocks

405131 (Main Chain)   2016-03-31 15:22:04

403201 (Main Chain)   2016-03-18 09:50:30


this has been 13 days and  5 hours 30 minutes

13 x 144 = 1872 blocks
5 x    6   =     30 blocks
and 3     =       3

               1905 is what we should have

so 1930/1905 = 1.31%

so all of the ones below :


0.0 = adaseb


+0.3 = tertius993
+0.5 = RichBC
+0.7 = ezeminer
+0.8 = wpt1wpt1
+0.9 = mavericklm
+1.0 = ingiltere
+1.1 = flikflak
+1.2 = mikestang
+1.3 = VRobb

+1.5 =pusttiu
+1.9 =HerbPean

look to stand a chance

[notlist3d]

So diffficulty wise we are not looking bad.  I am happy with a low difficulty change.  I still am surprised S7 sales did not have a bigger impact, but maybe next period.  But I'm happy difficulty wise.

Value wise not huge but we did start in mid 420's and are now around 416.  So lost some value but not a ton.  So hopefully we see a little rise, seems slow going on this.