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Author Topic: Would bitcoin be considered successful if it remains a niche market?  (Read 1618 times)
notig
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February 02, 2013, 02:19:33 PM
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Consider that since bitcoin is a worldwide currency in all countries... a niche market could still mean tens of millions of people. What do you think?

and if it was in such a situation how much do you think it could still be worth?
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February 02, 2013, 05:22:20 PM
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I think Bitcoin will at best remain a niche currency. Because of exchange costs and exchange rate risk it can never compete directly against fiat-denominated e-payment schemes (credit cards etcetera).

However, if the block size limit issue can be solved (I was surprised there seems to be a significant group of people who want to keep the 1M limit for ever) bitcoin could be a relatively succesful niche currency. In that case 1BTC would be worth at least several hundred dollars.
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February 02, 2013, 05:25:40 PM
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I think Bitcoin will at best remain a niche currency. Because of exchange costs and exchange rate risk it can never compete directly against fiat-denominated e-payment schemes (credit cards etcetera).

However, if the block size limit issue can be solved (I was surprised there seems to be a significant group of people who want to keep the 1M limit for ever) bitcoin could be a relatively succesful niche currency. In that case 1BTC would be worth at least several hundred dollars.

How is a maximum of 0.6% exchange fee too high compared to credit cards?  Have you ever had a credit card merchant account?

Exchange rate risk will always be there, but merchants don't have to care since there are plenty of services that provide instant conversion.  Even with these services the fess are less than CC merchant fees.  However, if history is any indication, the exchange rate risk will continue to be less of a factor with time.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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February 02, 2013, 05:30:17 PM
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I think Bitcoin will at best remain a niche currency. Because of exchange costs and exchange rate risk it can never compete directly against fiat-denominated e-payment schemes (credit cards etcetera).

However, if the block size limit issue can be solved (I was surprised there seems to be a significant group of people who want to keep the 1M limit for ever) bitcoin could be a relatively succesful niche currency. In that case 1BTC would be worth at least several hundred dollars.

How is a maximum of 0.6% exchange fee too high compared to credit cards?  Have you ever had a credit card merchant account?

Exchange rate risk will always be there, but merchants don't have to care since there are plenty of services that provide instant conversion.  Even with these services the fess are less than CC merchant fees.  However, if history is any indication, the exchange rate risk will continue to be less of a factor with time.

i am a merchant that accepts cc's and it's maddening watching the cc processors constantly trying to sneak in fee increases.  also now i have to take that annoying yearly security compliance test.

Bitcoin is much cheaper to transact in and the fixed supply ultimately will result in a much higher price.
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February 02, 2013, 05:50:40 PM
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I think Bitcoin will at best remain a niche currency. Because of exchange costs and exchange rate risk it can never compete directly against fiat-denominated e-payment schemes (credit cards etcetera).

However, if the block size limit issue can be solved (I was surprised there seems to be a significant group of people who want to keep the 1M limit for ever) bitcoin could be a relatively succesful niche currency. In that case 1BTC would be worth at least several hundred dollars.

How is a maximum of 0.6% exchange fee too high compared to credit cards?  Have you ever had a credit card merchant account?

Exchange rate risk will always be there, but merchants don't have to care since there are plenty of services that provide instant conversion.  Even with these services the fess are less than CC merchant fees.  However, if history is any indication, the exchange rate risk will continue to be less of a factor with time.

0.6% exchange fee means 1.2% round-trip (fiat to fiat). 1.2% is more than what most credit card processors take where I'm from. Debit cards are even cheaper at around 0.3% (Of course there are also subscription fees but they're peanuts if you have any kind of volume.)
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February 02, 2013, 05:57:24 PM
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I think Bitcoin will at best remain a niche currency. Because of exchange costs and exchange rate risk it can never compete directly against fiat-denominated e-payment schemes (credit cards etcetera).

However, if the block size limit issue can be solved (I was surprised there seems to be a significant group of people who want to keep the 1M limit for ever) bitcoin could be a relatively succesful niche currency. In that case 1BTC would be worth at least several hundred dollars.

How is a maximum of 0.6% exchange fee too high compared to credit cards?  Have you ever had a credit card merchant account?

Exchange rate risk will always be there, but merchants don't have to care since there are plenty of services that provide instant conversion.  Even with these services the fess are less than CC merchant fees.  However, if history is any indication, the exchange rate risk will continue to be less of a factor with time.

0.6% exchange fee means 1.2% round-trip (fiat to fiat). 1.2% is more than what most credit card processors take where I'm from. Debit cards are even cheaper at around 0.3% (Of course there are also subscription fees but they're peanuts if you have any kind of volume.)

First, that's worst case.  I always use limit orders on bitfloor.com, so I actually get paid when my order is filled.  Second, the merchant only has to convert once.  Third, there are no subscription fees, but if you have any kind of volume you can get the fee for market orders down to 0.25%.  Finally, those types of fees may be available for brick and mortar stores in low-risk businesses, but any type of CC processing online will be closer to 3-4% for low risk businesses, and 5-15% for high risk businesses.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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February 02, 2013, 05:58:31 PM
 #7

The hindrance for Bitcoin to become anything else than a niche currency is price stickiness.
Sadly this has nothing to do with the price in relation to other currencies but the amount of bitcoin which remain out of circulation for the majority of the time.

I don't know what can be done about this.

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February 02, 2013, 10:49:17 PM
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I think Bitcoin will at best remain a niche currency. Because of exchange costs and exchange rate risk it can never compete directly against fiat-denominated e-payment schemes (credit cards etcetera).

However, if the block size limit issue can be solved (I was surprised there seems to be a significant group of people who want to keep the 1M limit for ever) bitcoin could be a relatively succesful niche currency. In that case 1BTC would be worth at least several hundred dollars.

How is a maximum of 0.6% exchange fee too high compared to credit cards?  Have you ever had a credit card merchant account?

Exchange rate risk will always be there, but merchants don't have to care since there are plenty of services that provide instant conversion.  Even with these services the fess are less than CC merchant fees.  However, if history is any indication, the exchange rate risk will continue to be less of a factor with time.

0.6% exchange fee means 1.2% round-trip (fiat to fiat). 1.2% is more than what most credit card processors take where I'm from. Debit cards are even cheaper at around 0.3% (Of course there are also subscription fees but they're peanuts if you have any kind of volume.)

what does that mean 1.2% round trip? Don't you just convert once at 0.6% from BTC to USD?
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February 02, 2013, 11:22:08 PM
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I think Bitcoin will at best remain a niche currency. Because of exchange costs and exchange rate risk it can never compete directly against fiat-denominated e-payment schemes (credit cards etcetera).

However, if the block size limit issue can be solved (I was surprised there seems to be a significant group of people who want to keep the 1M limit for ever) bitcoin could be a relatively succesful niche currency. In that case 1BTC would be worth at least several hundred dollars.

How is a maximum of 0.6% exchange fee too high compared to credit cards?  Have you ever had a credit card merchant account?

Exchange rate risk will always be there, but merchants don't have to care since there are plenty of services that provide instant conversion.  Even with these services the fess are less than CC merchant fees.  However, if history is any indication, the exchange rate risk will continue to be less of a factor with time.

0.6% exchange fee means 1.2% round-trip (fiat to fiat). 1.2% is more than what most credit card processors take where I'm from. Debit cards are even cheaper at around 0.3% (Of course there are also subscription fees but they're peanuts if you have any kind of volume.)

what does that mean 1.2% round trip? Don't you just convert once at 0.6% from BTC to USD?

He means the customer buys the btc and the merchants sells them.  In reality, many transactions don't happen like that, but I was giving him the benefit of the doubt since I can make my point even with his overestimating assumption.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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notig
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February 03, 2013, 01:10:00 AM
 #10

what exactly is the block chain size problem? the block chain is basically the public ledger that records transactions right?
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February 03, 2013, 01:27:48 AM
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what exactly is the block chain size problem? the block chain is basically the public ledger that records transactions right?

Since Bitcoin attributes the same importance to every transaction they are all stored in the blocks, no matter how small. Even automated micro transactions.
It's also some of a policy issue since it would, in theory be possible to pay miners to merge multiple transactions into larger ones by rolling back the blockchain, but that won't happen, at least not for Bitcoin because nobody would pay for it and it's too late to make it part of the block reward.

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February 03, 2013, 01:42:59 AM
 #12

Quote
Would bitcoin be considered successful if it remains a niche market?

bitcoin IS successful, theirs nothing you cant buy NOTHING. ( at the right price  Wink )

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February 03, 2013, 02:00:42 AM
 #13

Bitcoin would be a 50B currency if it only become the de facto currency of the online gambling, adult and international
money transfer industries.

btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
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February 03, 2013, 06:23:06 AM
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Yes, very much so.

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February 03, 2013, 08:17:43 AM
 #15

and if it was in such a situation how much do you think it could still be worth?

Whatever someone is willing to pay.

Beyond that, who knows?
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