How can you detect a coin's future price rise in early stages?

[Emperor of Man]

Hi there everyone.  

All of us have seen the sudden rise of a coin's price to (God knows what number here)x levels in a short time and many wished if only they had bought the coin in early stages of its price increase.

Yes, many of these are manipulated pump and dumps and only some are true price rises; yes, there's no easy way to predict coin prices; and yes, coins have different pump patterns, but these are not the main points of discussion here.

Point is, if we can detect a price rise in early stages and board the train fast, we can make good profit. So how can we detect the early stages of a price rise? Is "a rising 24h volume" a good early sign? Is there any other good indexes for it?

Any ideas (from Godlike to amateur) are welcome and thanks everybody in advance.  

[BTCLovingDude]

very interesting question i will make sure to come back and check other replies.

but as an amateur i think there are multiple factors to detect the early stage rise:
- the development team, who are they, how many, how dedicated
- how the community has responded to what the coin offers
- what exactly is the coin offering, is it just a copy of others or has some new interesting ideas
- does it have premine, how big is it?

- most important of all: Amount Of Hype

[The Sceptical Chymist]

That's the magic question of all markets not just altcoin ones.  The only way you're going to know what the price is going to be is if you are a big enough whale such that you can move the whole market yourself.  And with some of these shitcoins, that's totally possible--and risky.

Edit:  And I agree, amount of hype seems to be a big indicator.

[alyssa85]

The pumps usually happen around a news event (because they need noobs to buy the pumped coins, and those noobs need a reason to justify buying).

Back when Mintpal was around, a coin getting onto that exchange was the "news" used as an excuse for a pump. Doge halvenings used to be used as pumps, till people wised up. The LTC halvening was used for a pump. Coins switching to PoS usually get pumped in the run-up to the switch. I'm willing to bet that as Ether approaches it's switch to PoS, there will be another pump.

[Nxtblg]

Right now, I have no idea. In the earlier stages of this bull market the leapers made some sense - but now, I'm either out of the loop or else there's pumping for the sake of pumping.

While I'm on the subject, Horizon's now climbing upwards and upwards. I own a lot of Horizon, I'm regularly involved in it, but its pump actually baffled me a bit. Instead of buying more, I actually sold some of my holding at lower prices.

If I'm representative of Horizon holders, then its uptrend is sustainable. One of the old and useful punters' rule-of-thumb is that sustainable uptrends begin in a cloud of skepticism, disbelief and apathy. Uptrends that begin with hype and excitement are either short-lived (pumps) or are bubbles in the making. On the other hand, the "resistance" of skepticism, disbelief and apathy provide of reservoir of future bullishness that will add to the uptrend later.

Go figure...I've seen this pattern with other alts, and used it to make a profitable buy or two - but the same pattern shows up with the alt I've been most involved with, and I fall right into it. But using me as a test rat, Horizon's got some room to go.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

As I write this, there's some shitcoin on Yobit with the symbol NOO that's up >9999% and stands at 0.008 bitcoin.  Anyone know what the hell that coin is?  And I doubt very much anyone could have predicted that, other than the ones who are quite obviously pumping it up like a bicycle tire. 

[Za1n]

One word, Volume.

Even if a no-name coin is hovering around a few 10's of satoshis, if it has a consistent volume over a significant period of time, you can bet someone is slowly accumulating and it will have a rise in its future.

Coins with little to no volume, i.e. the ones that eventually get removed from exchanges, will be most likely to lose your money. If a coin has volume, thus interest, it has a future. Not saying this is guaranteed, but is one way to quickly separate out the "wheat from the chaff". No volume == no profit.

[robelneo]

One word, Volume.

Even if a no-name coin is hovering around a few 10's of satoshis, if it has a consistent volume over a significant period of time, you can bet someone is slowly accumulating and it will have a rise in its future.

Coins with little to no volume, i.e. the ones that eventually get removed from exchanges, will be most likely to lose your money. If a coin has volume, thus interest, it has a future. Not saying this is guaranteed, but is one way to quickly separate out the "wheat from the chaff". No volume == no profit.

I agree with you this is one of the big factor i have seen a lot of non sense coin moving around with a lot of volume and they actually are the ones who are moving forward in value and seen a lot of good coins that has a good features getting delisted because of low volume ..

[BTCLovingDude]

As I write this, there's some shitcoin on Yobit with the symbol NOO that's up >9999% and stands at 0.008 bitcoin.  Anyone know what the hell that coin is?  And I doubt very much anyone could have predicted that, other than the ones who are quite obviously pumping it up like a bicycle tire. 

don't look too much into YOBIT's coins and how they change.
it is easy to pump some of the coins on YOBIT with the smallest amount since the buy/sell orders are a joke.

you might even be able to pump a coin to 1000% just by using 0.005BTC

[tokeweed]

A steady stage of low volatility and 'ok' volume means it's being accumulated.  Then followed by a spike in volume and a steady rise in price means it's a start of a pump...  It really depends how high it goes, but it's really rare that trends become massive like ETH.  Not all price actions are the same...

It really helps to keep looking at charts everyday.

[tokeweed]

And avoid low volume/waning volume coins at all costs.

[Emperor of Man]

Thank you for all of your great posts.  

I have an important question to ask:

From what I've read in previous posts, I figured out that the best time to buy a coin with price rise potential is "before the price rise starts". I want to know if the early stage of a coin's price rise is a good time to buy too, or not? Look at Emercoin's 24H price chart at the time of sending this post, as an example:

As you can see the coin's price has increased %100 in about 2-3 hours and its trade volume is rising fast too! I always get tempted to buy when something like this happens, but I've heard that in many occasions the price rise have stopped (or reversed) after someone have bought the coin.

Any ideas?  

[Nxtblg]

..the coin's price has increased %100 in about 2-3 hours and its trade volume is rising fast too! I always get tempted to buy when something like this happens, but I've heard that in many occasions the price rise have stopped (or reversed) after someone have bought the coin.

Any ideas?  

It's a risky strategy, which only comes into its own in an all-out bubble, but it might work in the current market provided you throw in a small %age of your BTC into one coin.

Just remember, though, "it works until it doesn't." Best if you buy coins that you have good reason to believe in. Thanks to this new bull market, bagholders now have a chance for the first time in a long time. The art of bagholding in a bull market, please remember, lies in controlling your FOMO. If you find yourself flailing around making quick trades that in retrospect are weird, you're the slave of your FOMIO and it's be best to take a vacation from trading.

(Yes, I'm speaking from experience.  )

[CoinCajigger]

There is a bunch of decent advice in this thread.

[adhitthana]

Momentum indicators are supposed to move ahead of price. So divergence in say RSI, is thought to be a clue to a price rise.
You could google "RSI divergence", for more info.

Most cryptos have so little volume that this might not be too much help.

[unusualfacts30]

Follow the whales. 

[Vaccomondus]

Follow the whales. 

yeah next one is lisk, one whale dumped 1k btc into it

[Nxtblg]

A steady stage of low volatility and 'ok' volume means it's being accumulated.  Then followed by a spike in volume and a steady rise in price means it's a start of a pump...  It really depends how high it goes, but it's really rare that trends become massive like ETH.  Not all price actions are the same...

Actually, those words of yours remind me of a primitive indicator used by the legendary trader Jesse Livermore. He called it "money flow." Here's how it worked: he started with an arbitrary number. Then, at the end of each trading day, he multiplied the day's volume by the day's price change and added it to the prior day's number. Then he would graph it and the price, and then he'd compare the "money flow" line to the price line. If money-flow rose faster than price, he smelled accumulation.

Is Polo's price change measured from 24hrs ago? If so, then the "money flow" indicator could be implemented straightforwardly. It'd just need a measure at a fixed time each day, and there ya go.

[klee]

Yes you can...

[bitwhizz]

Volume is a good indication