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Question: What is the best ratio for a portfolio of Bitcoin and Metals
1% Bitcoin / 99% Metals
25% Bicoin / 75% Metals
50% Bitcoin / 50% Metals
75% Bitcoin / 25% Metals
99% Bitcoin / 1% Metals

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chodpaba
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June 09, 2011, 09:19:56 PM
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nuggets4all
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June 09, 2011, 09:24:06 PM
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10/90 BTC/PMs

1FmU8DBU7CpM4jqNMeMvwtVBKjuyyDLWss
dayfall
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June 09, 2011, 09:37:18 PM
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I agree with the 1/9 ratio.  Anyone here selling gold?
Current-C
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June 09, 2011, 10:05:27 PM
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This is a very subjective question and much of it depends on your personal financial situation and risk tolerance.  If you're young and shooting for the stars then 90% bitcoins might be appropriate.  If you're retiring next year maybe 90% metals.  No "one size fits all" solution here.  Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.

@dayfall I may be able to help depending on what you're looking for.
dayfall
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June 09, 2011, 10:58:51 PM
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@dayfall I may be able to help depending on what you're looking for.

Yeah, I just got your coins.  I'll probably move more BTC into silver in a week or two.
imperi
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June 09, 2011, 11:07:20 PM
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Metals will be worthless when we start mining asteroids. Bitcoin could still be around (not with the exact same protocol of course).
dakshinachara
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June 10, 2011, 10:47:43 AM
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Very appropriate question.

25 Bitcoin / 75 pm is my bet at the moment.

Not sure which one will do the 'moonshot' first.   :-)
cartman
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June 10, 2011, 11:43:24 AM
 #8

optimal portofolios depend on the degreee of risk aversion, unless you have the option to borrows money at a lower price than your expected return. in the latter case, the are optimal portfolios and your risk aversion can be adjusted by the leverage, i.e. the amount of money borrowed. there are measures which can be optimized like the sortino ratio or calmar ratio. i would guess, those measures would suggest somehting like 2% BTC 98% Gold. This highly depends on what return can be theoretically expected and what volatility bitcoin has. In a few month, bitcoin might have a much lower volatility due to better liquidity of the markets (or not).

A few more ideas:
The price of gold is imo determined by the rate of inflation, multiplied with the world economic growth rate, multiplied with a factor between 0 and 1. The latter because I think gold would increase by inflation and growth rate, IF it would be used as a currency all over the world, else, the increase must be below that rate. so gold is not an optimal investment, it just protects from inflation losses.
better investments would be "productive stuff", like real estate, forrests, or the like. those are also inflation protected.

the theoretical return of bitcoin is the rate of deflation = approximately the world economic growth rate, unless you impose more assumptions about how the framework changes (government, user acceptance etc.) which is more speculation.

if you have left over money, consider buying something of practical use and low rate of deprecation, like good furniture, high quality knives, a proper coffee machine or real estate. return of a coffee machine can be three-digit, unless of course, you already own one Smiley
also think about wine Smiley
dakshinachara
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June 10, 2011, 01:16:50 PM
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if you have left over money, consider buying something of practical use and low rate of deprecation, like good furniture, high quality knives, a proper coffee machine or real estate. return of a coffee machine can be three-digit, unless of course, you already own one Smiley
also think about wine Smiley

stuff with 'low rate of deprecation' recommended as investment ?! you're having a laugh, right?
westkybitcoins
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June 10, 2011, 01:27:49 PM
 #10

A ratio of 25%/75% btc/metals currently seems pretty sound to me.

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The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
rezin777
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June 10, 2011, 01:43:57 PM
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if you have left over money, consider buying something of practical use and low rate of deprecation, like good furniture, high quality knives, a proper coffee machine or real estate. return of a coffee machine can be three-digit, unless of course, you already own one Smiley
also think about wine Smiley

stuff with 'low rate of deprecation' recommended as investment ?! you're having a laugh, right?

He said with the left over money, and I personally think he is quite right. After all, there are things you can buy and use that, if necessary, you can sell down the road for almost what you've paid. Perhaps investment is the wrong term, but a useful store of value? Antiques. Classic cars. Collectable firearms. High quality tools. Etc.
dakshinachara
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June 10, 2011, 02:03:39 PM
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if you have left over money, consider buying something of practical use and low rate of deprecation, like good furniture, high quality knives, a proper coffee machine or real estate. return of a coffee machine can be three-digit, unless of course, you already own one Smiley
also think about wine Smiley

stuff with 'low rate of deprecation' recommended as investment ?! you're having a laugh, right?

He said with the left over money, and I personally think he is quite right. After all, there are things you can buy and use that, if necessary, you can sell down the road for almost what you've paid. Perhaps investment is the wrong term, but a useful store of value? Antiques. Classic cars. Collectable firearms. High quality tools. Etc.

Investment is not an appropriate term imho.

Store of value makes sense, just take into account the liquidity of what you own - in a stable environment, collecting 'a proper coffee machine' might be a good thing to 'barter', but in an event of financial collapse (which I do believe we're heading towards to) it's more likely that toilet paper will be more valuable  Cheesy
rezin777
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June 10, 2011, 02:17:43 PM
 #13

Investment is not an appropriate term imho.

Store of value makes sense, just take into account the liquidity of what you own - in a stable environment, collecting 'a proper coffee machine' might be a good thing to 'barter', but in an event of financial collapse (which I do believe we're heading towards to) it's more likely that toilet paper will be more valuable  Cheesy

Indeed, but in a financial collapse my first thought wouldn't be toilet paper either (I do understand where you are coming from though)! I would go with things like canned foods with a very long shelf life, gasoline (stored properly), quality bicycles (transportation that only relies on manpower), alcohol (both kinds, infection and boredom are bad!), guns (being able to defend yourself is good), silver and gold of course (other people who have prepared will still be able to exchange services and goods with you), ham radio (communicate with those who can), etc.
cartman
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June 10, 2011, 02:36:45 PM
 #14

you're my man Cheesy

i thought about such scenarios for a long time.i also made an experiment to life 4 weeks just with durable goods and developed sound strategies for food storages (most common knowledge about foodstorage is crap). if someone is interested, i will post some ideas...

my thoughts about an alternative barter currencies yield the following:

- ammunition for common guns
- antibiotics

both rise in value in times of severe crisis, are divisible and don't weigh much.

- gold
- cigarettes
- alcohol

might work well in a financial crisis, but loose value if there is severe political disorder, lootery and violence.

i totally agree with the guns also! you should also diversify with a home made flamethrower Wink

and thanks for the hint with the bike, totally ignored that so far! my plan for the extreme crisis is to move to peers at the countryside, where order might be maintained, since all neighbours are armed and everyone has potatoes and gasoline in his basement.

regarding the food storage i recommend to early do your homework. its too late when you drove into the supermarket with your pickup and you have no sophisticated list Smiley
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