1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000

[Bitcoinbro]

Some people are waiting for the price to be one million Dollar per Bitcoin but I know that the price is not going to be that high. We have to stay realistic here because if not you are just going to be blinded.

All I want to say is not to get your hopes to high up because it is not sure of there will ever be a Bitcoin that is going to be worth one million Dollar.
I am not saying that it is impossible but it is pretty unlikely to happen.

[1715033570]

1715033570

[co5hike]

Some people are waiting for the price to be one million Dollar per Bitcoin but I know that the price is not going to be that high. We have to stay realistic here because if not you are just going to be blinded.

All I want to say is not to get your hopes to high up because it is not sure of there will ever be a Bitcoin that is going to be worth one million Dollar.
I am not saying that it is impossible but it is pretty unlikely to happen.

Yes its not impossible but its too high to expect from it, dreaming with open eyes is not a good thing, and it doesn't seems to be realistic too.

[Galiatram]

Each person own 1 Bitcoin and hold on to it for 20+ years.

Bitcoin is the best investment of all time. Owning Bitcoin is better than owning a house.

I don't saying it won't happen in future but i don't think it will happen in 20 years. And if some hold bitcoin by selling their house.Their is risk bitcoin value can decrease to zero.But if i won a house it don't have any chance to zero.

Bitcoin will make you rich or make you bust in 50 years.

no one know what will happen in future, bitcoin will be rising or not . but almost every investment must have risk. just make sure you invest money that you afford to lose.

I dont think this can be true becasue the bitcoin will never reach just one milion how is that even possible that has to mean that everybody needs to sell their coins only after that the coin will rise allot but not even then he will hit the one million.

[icepick007]

this is funny and scary...but on a more nerdy note the long term average inflation rate for the dollar over the last 100 years or so has been 3.22%. So prices double roughly every 22 years. Going purely by the math, they would be a 1000x in 220 years or so...so this event should definitely happen between year 2240 - 2250 

But unlike fiat currency, whose money supply is continually added, bitcoins are fixed at 21 million. Assuming bitcoins were to keep increasing in popularity and acceptance and the user trajectory keeps increasing and assuming a 5% inflation rate (i just pulled this from my hat), prices would double every 15 years, so in another 150 - 160 years we would get there or by year 2165 - 2175.

[the_poet]

As much as I crave it, I just don't think it will ever happen.

[fkvidar]

As much as I crave it, I just don't think it will ever happen.

Exactly it is something out of the reach, and we are expecting too high from bitcoin, that value is not realistic one and it would be waste of time for holding coins to sell at that price.

[fravia]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

One bitcoin for one million is possible, but it will take lots of time and luck, because everyone should use bitcoins then for this to happen

And i think that closest date that this could happen is not earlier than in 2050 and like i said only if we will be very lukcy

[BurtW]

this is funny and scary...but on a more nerdy note the long term average inflation rate for the dollar over the last 100 years or so has been 3.22%. So prices double roughly every 22 years. Going purely by the math, they would be a 1000x in 220 years or so...so this event should definitely happen between year 2240 - 2250  

But unlike fiat currency, whose money supply is continually added, bitcoins are fixed at 21 million. Assuming bitcoins were to keep increasing in popularity and acceptance and the user trajectory keeps increasing and assuming a 5% inflation rate (i just pulled this from my hat), prices would double every 15 years, so in another 150 - 160 years we would get there or by year 2165 - 2175.

I agree.  It is inevitable that 1 BTC will equal $1,000,000 by design of both systems - assuming both systems last that long.

The real questions are:

1) When will the cross over happen

2) How much will the 1 BTC or the $1,000,000 be able to buy at that point is time?  One average house? One average automobile?  A nice vacation? One bag of groceries?  Or one cup of coffee.

[Bitmore]

One million $ is possible, and potentially sooner than you think.  

If the US dollar currency has a collapse, loses reserve currency status and is no longer used as the currency that Middle East oil transactions are carried out in (and the demise of the petrodollar is the principle intention of the BRICs nations), the hyper inflationary event could be breath taking, followed by a panic stampede to a safe place to store wealth.  

If the dollar collapses that $21 trillion economy and store of wealth will have to be carried out in somebody's currency,

or perhaps nobody's,

as in decentralized,

as in bitcoin.

[bitlancr]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

We know that something like this is just not going to happen with Bitcoin, I think tat we have to stay realistic because speculating about these kind of prizes is going to bring us nowhere. So lets focus on what can really happen with the Bitcoin price in the future.

[log2exp]

I agree.  It is inevitable that 1 BTC will equal $1,000,000 by design of both systems - assuming both systems last that long.

The real questions are:

1) When will the cross over happen

2) How much will the 1 BTC or the $1,000,000 be able to buy at that point is time?  One average house? One average automobile?  A nice vacation? One bag of groceries?  Or one cup of coffee.

Hi Burt, nice to see your post again.

I've followed your mining power based analysis on the price cap for each halving era. Based on your model, the estimation came up by flipperfish's post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg9186092#msg9186092 are all based on today's dollar purchasing power right?

I agree that the price estimation could be a lot more accurate on how much bread/milk we can get per coin, however, I have yet to find anyone come up with a solid formula based on this model.

[w00t]

I agree.  It is inevitable that 1 BTC will equal $1,000,000 by design of both systems - assuming both systems last that long.

The real questions are:

1) When will the cross over happen

2) How much will the 1 BTC or the $1,000,000 be able to buy at that point is time?  One average house? One average automobile?  A nice vacation? One bag of groceries?  Or one cup of coffee.

Hi Burt, nice to see your post again.

I've followed your mining power based analysis on the price cap for each halving era. Based on your model, the estimation came up by flipperfish's post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg9186092#msg9186092 are all based on today's dollar purchasing power right?

I agree that the price estimation could be a lot more accurate on how much bread/milk we can get per coin, however, I have yet to find anyone come up with a solid formula based on this model.

I did some calculations and I didn't use the general CPI as it's too much affected by technological advance - I used "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Fruits and vegetables" (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF113), as I assume today's vegetable is pretty much the same as it was 50 years ago.

My calculations show that average inflation for past 32 years was about 15 % y/y (quite crazy, isn't it?), so in order to keep up with the inflation you must make 15 % extra y/y or your investment needs to do it. Shadowstats.com say that the inflation is between 6-10 % y/y depending on methods used (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts).

With above in mind I suppose for average person the y/y inflation I suppose is at least 10 %, obviously if in "your" consumer basket is way more iPhones/cars/other consumer goods per year (you're richer) your personal inflation is lower and vice versa.

Again looking at the "CPI - Fruits and vegetables (USD)" index, basically every 10-20 years you need to at least double your money to keep up with the inflation.
2016-05-01    index: $294.68
2006-05-01    index: $246.80
1996-05-01    index: $182.60
1986-05-01    index: $110.10
1976-05-01    index: $57.50
1966-05-01    index: $33
1956-05-01    index: $26.9

===>>> So if you say that 1 BTC will be 1M USD in 10-20 years you will probably buy about half of what you can buy with same amount today, in other words, 1 million USD today is same as 2 million USD in about 15 years.

These calculations assume that the trend will be about same and nothing VERY bad will happen.

[w00t]

well simply said if today's price of 1 BTC is 456.46 USD (AVG for past 6 months) and fruit and vegetable index average for same period is at $299.19 => 1.52

With 1 BTC now you can buy on average 1.52 of the fruit and vegetable index, it should at least stay this way in the future...

[TrueCryptonaire]

Each person own 1 Bitcoin and hold on to it for 20+ years.

Bitcoin is the best investment of all time. Owning Bitcoin is better than owning a house.

Sounds pretty long time frame to me especially considering the fact that the age of btc is already only 7 years - and even that has felt like forever.
However, holding 1-5 btc should not be impossible, and even larger amounts as long as you are having income from other sources and are not forced to sell at current levels.

[hawkins]

sounds like a quick way to become rich. I am sure, if the price of bitcoin to $ 1000.000 in a short time, perhaps all the current bitcoin users would become suddenly rich. maybe everyone will be shocked by this news, and even a director will focus on seeking bitcoin

[Bitcotalk]

Some people are waiting for the price to be one million Dollar per Bitcoin but I know that the price is not going to be that high. We have to stay realistic here because if not you are just going to be blinded.

All I want to say is not to get your hopes to high up because it is not sure of there will ever be a Bitcoin that is going to be worth one million Dollar.
I am not saying that it is impossible but it is pretty unlikely to happen.

if we all do support for bitcoin and we all adopt bitcoin for our normal use then bitcoin will get a high value and it will be then a hope that the price will be at that value.

[coin_gambler]

Some people are waiting for the price to be one million Dollar per Bitcoin but I know that the price is not going to be that high. We have to stay realistic here because if not you are just going to be blinded.

All I want to say is not to get your hopes to high up because it is not sure of there will ever be a Bitcoin that is going to be worth one million Dollar.
I am not saying that it is impossible but it is pretty unlikely to happen.

Yes its not impossible but its too high to expect from it, dreaming with open eyes is not a good thing, and it doesn't seems to be realistic too.

why is it too high to expect such big price in the future? i think it will be really possible pretty soon if the interest in bitcoins will not fade overtime, lets hope it wont happen

one bitcoin will most probably equal to one million dollars in a few decades most probably, when this will happen then bitcoin will be a currency of a lot of countries in my opinion

[BurtW]

I agree.  It is inevitable that 1 BTC will equal $1,000,000 by design of both systems - assuming both systems last that long.

The real questions are:

1) When will the cross over happen

2) How much will the 1 BTC or the $1,000,000 be able to buy at that point is time?  One average house? One average automobile?  A nice vacation? One bag of groceries?  Or one cup of coffee.

Hi Burt, nice to see your post again.

I've followed your mining power based analysis on the price cap for each halving era. Based on your model, the estimation came up by flipperfish's post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg9186092#msg9186092 are all based on today's dollar purchasing power right?

I agree that the price estimation could be a lot more accurate on how much bread/milk we can get per coin, however, I have yet to find anyone come up with a solid formula based on this model.

Yes, all my calculations in that other thread are based on a constant dollar value.

[techgeek]

Each person own 1 Bitcoin and hold on to it for 20+ years.

Bitcoin is the best investment of all time. Owning Bitcoin is better than owning a house.

Sounds pretty long time frame to me especially considering the fact that the age of btc is already only 7 years - and even that has felt like forever.
However, holding 1-5 btc should not be impossible, and even larger amounts as long as you are having income from other sources and are not forced to sell at current levels.

Its not just that, but the other markets like gold and silver has to be over flowing and being unable to cater to peoples needs.

Then people start looking for other options like bitcoin, but if the market cap for gold is close to 5 trillion then bitcoin remains a small billion category.

[log2exp]

I did some calculations and I didn't use the general CPI as it's too much affected by technological advance - I used "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Fruits and vegetables" (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF113), as I assume today's vegetable is pretty much the same as it was 50 years ago.

My calculations show that average inflation for past 32 years was about 15 % y/y (quite crazy, isn't it?), so in order to keep up with the inflation you must make 15 % extra y/y or your investment needs to do it. Shadowstats.com say that the inflation is between 6-10 % y/y depending on methods used (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts).

With above in mind I suppose for average person the y/y inflation I suppose is at least 10 %, obviously if in "your" consumer basket is way more iPhones/cars/other consumer goods per year (you're richer) your personal inflation is lower and vice versa.

Again looking at the "CPI - Fruits and vegetables (USD)" index, basically every 10-20 years you need to at least double your money to keep up with the inflation.
2016-05-01    index: $294.68
2006-05-01    index: $246.80
1996-05-01    index: $182.60
1986-05-01    index: $110.10
1976-05-01    index: $57.50
1966-05-01    index: $33
1956-05-01    index: $26.9

===>>> So if you say that 1 BTC will be 1M USD in 10-20 years you will probably buy about half of what you can buy with same amount today, in other words, 1 million USD today is same as 2 million USD in about 15 years.

These calculations assume that the trend will be about same and nothing VERY bad will happen.

Thank you w00t for coming up with this model. They are making lots sense.

To model estimations based on another indicator that I consider is using published M2 numbers.

For example, since Chinese exchanges have the highest volume, I use the Chinese M2 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m2. From last ATH in late 2013, M2 is about 110000 (CNY in billions), and now the M2 in China is about 145000. The delta between them is 35000, an increase of 35000/110000 = 32.8% between late 2013 and now. Which is very close to your 15% y/y inflation number, especially factor in the compounded rate. From this perspective, the ATH in 2013 factor in the M2 increase should really be 7588.9 * 1.328 = 10078.05(CNY) per coin. Only if we pass this number has a true meaning of ATH which factor in the purchasing power.

I'm wondering if we can put w00t's shadow rate or this M2 increase ratio towards BurtW's number as an coefficient. Of cause these numbers fluctuate y/y.