1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000

[spain cool]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

if this happens we will all be rich

[1715249136]

1715249136

[1715249136]

1715249136

[Shiver]

I find this hard to believe myself, but I just did an extrapolation based on whatever data I could pull together quickly, and it suggests that it should pass the USD$ 1 million/BTC around December 2022.  Just one year prior to that, it would suggest the paltry sum of $102,000.

That's no joke and no typo, but it does make a *lot* of assumptions such as:

*If previous history is any guide to future performance.

*Not discounting any unknowns about future events of cataclysmic scale.

*No game changers, such as what we saw about peak oil, where usage should have run out by now, but new ways of scraping the barrel, increased efficiency, scope for alternative tech to immediately (in the logarithmic sense) make it redundant.  Another one is human population on the planet - if the model worked on that then we'd all have about 1sqm of land each I guess, but nature has ways of culling non viable systems and maintaining requisite variety.

There will of course be peaks and troughs along the way, and I tried to model it ('model it' being a fancy word for 2 mins with a spreadsheet and a couple of data points for a starting point, nothing techie).  I just tried to find a baseline.  For example, if you'd joined us ATH you'd still as at time of writing, be down rather than up.  OTOH, if you got in when it was a couple of cents per coin then you'd see the market distorted in the opposite way before there was any volume to make meaningful measures of the numbers.

If FIAT doesn't collapse before the above date, and no hyperinflation experiences to mark the end of an empire, then that's a freakingly difficult value to conceive of.  If we're buying bread with wheel barrows of $100 notes then I'd suggest we start collecting parts that could be made into wheelbarrows and trade those for bread instead.

It could have a sudden halt, or a bell curve, or any number of other things that this extremely simple "time to double" projection suggests.  

So no, I don't believe the above numbers as I can't conceive of it compared to any real life experience.  Entertaining daydream though.

[Shiver]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

if this happens we will all be rich

Err... but what about the size of debt of say USA alone, let alone the rest of the world.  Isn't that going to soak up .... what is it currently, $18.4 Trillion or something?  Sometimes I wonder if we actually create anything at all, or whether we're just converting sunlight to food to work to sustain the status quo, with 'wealth creators' gaining an edge on a trend for a few decades/generations before it goes back to the earth.

[pissedoff]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

if this happens we will all be rich

Even the price of gold has not reached this high. It would take a very long time for bitcoin to even hit $10,000 let alone $1,000,000.

[TrueCryptonaire]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

if this happens we will all be rich

Even the price of gold has not reached this high. It would take a very long time for bitcoin to even hit $10,000 let alone $1,000,000.

BTC will be 50 000 + USD within 24 months most likely.
The peak will be pretty sudden and it will escalate within days rather than within months. However, the preparation will take some months of roller coaster

[Shiver]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

if this happens we will all be rich

Even the price of gold has not reached this high. It would take a very long time for bitcoin to even hit $10,000 let alone $1,000,000.

True, although Gold is there because it is stable, not because it has much use case to make it increase outside of that except electronics and a handful of niche requirements.  If you look at Gold historically compared to the purchasing power of whatever Gov't paper or dinar is in vogue at the time, it's more of a stabiliser than anything - a very useful property.  One good thing about Gold is it has lots of historical data to project how it tracks the more wild swings of alternatives, and can be a measure (so far as we're able to determine) of where in a cycle a system is, which will make it look in fashion, or out of fashion when really it's going nowhere other than showing the success or failure of alternative systems.

If Gold is truly undervalued, then I'd just rephrase that and say it is the same as it ever was, and just pointing out that something like FIAT is out of control.  Gold bugs I would say are people that can see the writing on the wall, and are taking self preservation measures.

[w00t]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

if this happens we will all be rich

Even the price of gold has not reached this high. It would take a very long time for bitcoin to even hit $10,000 let alone $1,000,000.

Doesn't matter really - gold is also (usually) not sold in tons but in ounces, same way will be sold BTC at later time in mBTC and Satoshis.

Gold is as of this moment almost 8 Trillion market cap, imho Bitcoin is superior to Gold so with that in mind I see the market cap at least at the same level or higher.

Btw. 8 Trillion market cap means 1 BTC is worth ~ 381 000 USD

[Kidsgarter]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

if this happens we will all be rich

Even the price of gold has not reached this high. It would take a very long time for bitcoin to even hit $10,000 let alone $1,000,000.

Doesn't matter really - gold is also (usually) not sold in tons but in ounces, same way will be sold BTC at later time in mBTC and Satoshis.

Gold is as of this moment almost 8 Trillion market cap, imho Bitcoin is superior to Gold so with that in mind I see the market cap at least at the same level or higher.

Btw. 8 Trillion market cap means 1 BTC is worth ~ 381 000 USD

When the 20 trillion US treasury market is represented in the bitcoin, each bitcoin is worth $1 million.

[Sharma]

Highly unlikely but should that happen, expect economic chaos.

[BurtW]

Highly unlikely but should that happen, expect economic chaos.

You might have that backward:

If we have economic chaos (hyperinflation) then expect it to happen.

[Altynbekova]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

The value of Bitcoin is never going to be that high,  I think that we have to stay realistic and not speculate about things that we know are not going to happen.
I would be a great thing if the value would be that high but it is impossible to think that it will happen.

[Kidsgarter]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

The value of Bitcoin is never going to be that high,  I think that we have to stay realistic and not speculate about things that we know are not going to happen.
I would be a great thing if the value would be that high but it is impossible to think that it will happen.

The US state debt is around $20,000,000,000,000 ($20 Trillion USD). So it is easy for bitcoin to be worth that much.

[praprata]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

The value of Bitcoin is never going to be that high,  I think that we have to stay realistic and not speculate about things that we know are not going to happen.
I would be a great thing if the value would be that high but it is impossible to think that it will happen.

It would be really something if the price would be one million Dollar but a miracle would have to happen to get the price to be that high.
Do not get your hopes up for the price to be this high because the chance is small.

[BurtW]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

The value of Bitcoin is never going to be that high,  I think that we have to stay realistic and not speculate about things that we know are not going to happen.
I would be a great thing if the value would be that high but it is impossible to think that it will happen.

It would be really something if the price would be one million Dollar but a miracle would have to happen to get the price to be that high.
Do not get your hopes up for the price to be this high because the chance is small.

I guess you could call hyperinflation and destruction of the value of the USD a "miracle".   Not what I would call it.

[TrueCryptonaire]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

The value of Bitcoin is never going to be that high,  I think that we have to stay realistic and not speculate about things that we know are not going to happen.
I would be a great thing if the value would be that high but it is impossible to think that it will happen.

It would be really something if the price would be one million Dollar but a miracle would have to happen to get the price to be that high.
Do not get your hopes up for the price to be this high because the chance is small.

I guess you could call hyperinflation and destruction of the value of the USD a "miracle".   Not what I would call it.

You do not need hyperinflation and catastrophies to make btc a coin worth of 1000 000 usd. All you need is some stubborn bagholders and a lot of more demand from the current levels.
Perhaps if there are let's say 100 people starting 10-50 different digital businesses/person that accept btc as the only choice of payment it is possible, and they only accumulate coins, never sell them. If one bussines is able to generate on average 1 btc/day, there is additional demand for cold storages 1000-5000 btc/day. Daily emission is 1800 coins.
I think it is not impossible to find 100 entrepreneurs who are able to start this project from btc community.

[Tippingcoin]

Perhaps if there are let's say 100 people starting 10-50 different digital businesses/person that accept btc as the only choice of payment it is possible, and they only accumulate coins, never sell them.

I'm gonna go ahead and assume that those bitcoin businesses sell what all bitcoin businesses sell: hopes and dreams. While the industrial moguls live in Mom's basements, eating Mom's food.
Because ordinary businesses have expenses: overheads, salaries, restocking merchandise, taxes, etc., etc. Which necessitates spending.

[BurtW]

If you are talking about 1 BTC = $1,000,000 and the $1,000,000 you are talking about has the same purchasing power as $1,000,000 today then no.  See my previous post in this very thread:
 

We cannot/do not want to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 per BTC any time soon unless there is hyperinflation and the dollar were to lose most of its value.  In other words the only way we are going to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 if for that many USD to be worth what $1,000 or $500 is worth today in terms of purchasing power.  Here is the math behind it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:

P = (6(50/2^e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]

where:

x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]

we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.

In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:

x = $500,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

Code:

      Original target      Subsidy    Est Fees  Power  % of total world
Era    starting year    BTC/block    BTC/hour     GW  power production
---  ---------------  -----------  ----------  -----  ----------------
  0             2009  50.00000000  0.00000000  1,350            58.41%
  1             2013  25.00000000  0.00000000    675            29.20%
  2             2017  12.50000000  0.00000000    337            14.60%
  3             2021   6.25000000  0.00000000    169             7.30%
  4             2025   3.12500000  0.00000000     84             3.65%
  5             2029   1.56250000  0.00000000     42             1.83%
  6             2033   0.78125000  1.31250000     27             1.17%
  7             2037   0.39062500  3.65625000     27             1.17%
  8             2041   0.19531250  4.82812500     27             1.17%
  9             2045   0.09765625  5.41406250     27             1.17%

Of course my post is from before the reward was cut in half.  We are now in era 2 so you can adjust the above numbers accordingly.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Perhaps if there are let's say 100 people starting 10-50 different digital businesses/person that accept btc as the only choice of payment it is possible, and they only accumulate coins, never sell them.

I'm gonna go ahead and assume that those bitcoin businesses sell what all bitcoin businesses sell: hopes and dreams. While the industrial moguls live in Mom's basements, eating Mom's food.
Because ordinary businesses have expenses: overheads, salaries, restocking merchandise, taxes, etc., etc. Which necessitates spending.

You did not understand what I meant.
I talked about starting digital businesses, and sometimes they are cheap to build and you do not need expenses to run those. Running multiple web sites will not cost that much.
If one site generates on average BTC 1/day profit, then multiplying it by 50 you get 50 btc profit/day - and if there are 100 such entrepreneus, they lock BTC 5000 /day to their cold storages. Eventually the price has to rise.
Merchants that instadump the bitcoins will be no good for btc (except indirectly perhaps with visibility). The value of btc lies only on the holding of it, not using it as a payment token.

[TrueCryptonaire]

If you are talking about 1 BTC = $1,000,000 and the $1,000,000 you are talking about has the same purchasing power as $1,000,000 today then no.  See my previous post in this very thread:
 

We cannot/do not want to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 per BTC any time soon unless there is hyperinflation and the dollar were to lose most of its value.  In other words the only way we are going to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 if for that many USD to be worth what $1,000 or $500 is worth today in terms of purchasing power.  Here is the math behind it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:

P = (6(50/2^e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]

where:

x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]

we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.

In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:

x = $500,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

Code:

      Original target      Subsidy    Est Fees  Power  % of total world
Era    starting year    BTC/block    BTC/hour     GW  power production
---  ---------------  -----------  ----------  -----  ----------------
  0             2009  50.00000000  0.00000000  1,350            58.41%
  1             2013  25.00000000  0.00000000    675            29.20%
  2             2017  12.50000000  0.00000000    337            14.60%
  3             2021   6.25000000  0.00000000    169             7.30%
  4             2025   3.12500000  0.00000000     84             3.65%
  5             2029   1.56250000  0.00000000     42             1.83%
  6             2033   0.78125000  1.31250000     27             1.17%
  7             2037   0.39062500  3.65625000     27             1.17%
  8             2041   0.19531250  4.82812500     27             1.17%
  9             2045   0.09765625  5.41406250     27             1.17%

Of course my post is from before the reward was cut in half.  We are now in era 2 so you can adjust the above numbers accordingly.

Sure the consumption of electricity rises if btc hits 500 000-1 000 000 usd all of sudden. However, also the mining tech becomes better (more efficient) + there will be more supply for electricity.

[BurtW]

Sure the consumption of electricity rises if btc hits 500 000-1 000 000 usd all of sudden. However, also the mining tech becomes better (more efficient) + there will be more supply for electricity.

More efficient miners just cause the difficulty to go up.  They do not affect the total power consumption of the network.

Power consumption is not a function of efficiency it is only a function of price and the other parameters shown in the formula given above due to the fundamental design parameters of a proof of work system.

More supply of electricity (at the same or a lower price over time)?  Really?  And nuclear power is going to be so cheap and efficient that they may even stop metering electricity, right?