so... how long till we pass the old high of 32?

[cloon]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

Or Trendon selling stolen coins ?

The correction of mid-august was not a market correction IMO.. It was 1 btc scammer unloading tons of stolen BTC.. Market knew it, quickly recover to real valuation !

i see this totally different!
there wasn't one big sell that triggered this...
the price rose exponentialy on logarythmic scale (like it does now). such a pattern mostly reaches a high which isnt reached in near future.

it began to go down cause the exponential growth was too steep and the exponential support line was broken, panic started, many ppl sell (over 2 days).

then the prize fluctuated around the middle (~11$) of the fall like it does after every harder spike in the beginning of a correction and cooling down minds.

for 5 month the high was not reached until market decided which way to go after the big correction.

so IMO this fall and the following 4 month were just a major correction and now we're also looking at an steeper and steeper rise.

btw: all my analysis in logarythmic scale and unfortunately not in sierra chart (my pc broke down)

ps: one thing i learned is that wether bitfloor, bitcoinica, pirate, mtgox nor trendon is bitcoin. the price of bitcoin follows mainly self fulfilling technical chart analysis what works excellent for me ;-)

[matthewh3]

If the price of bitcoin goes to 32 dollars..... do you really think that if the price crashes again people will let the price go down as far as it has knowing that it has proven it can rise that far not once but more than once? I don't think so. If a crash happens I don't see it as being drastic. Of course it could be wishful thinking. But I'm happy whether the price goes down or up personally. In fact I would almost rather it go down so I can buy more bitcoins.

I too think there wont be a massive violent crash like 2011.  I don't think we're going <$20 ever again or not very far and not for long.  Tho that's just my speculation and maybe hopes too.

[evoorhees]

The price of Bitcoin isn't some random number. It has to do with physical goods tied to the use of the Bitcoin.

Not exclusively. It has properties similar to gold as well. How many physical goods do you guy and sell directly with gold? I think it's a common misconception that the success-case for bitcoin is tied exclusively to its utility as a means of transaction. That's only half the equation. If bitcoin, like gold, is only really ever transacted as a major settlement (as opposed to day-to-day transactional) currency, it can still be hugely successful. That said, I think bitcoin's near-ideal transactional properties will cause a real consumer economy to develop around it eventually, but the point is that that doesn't *have* to happen for bitcoin to have considerable value.

+1

[evoorhees]

Though the comparison to the previous record of 32 makes me greatly uneasy (as that was generally accepted to be a pump and dump),

The 2011 bubble was most certainly not a pump and dump. People use this term too carelessly.

The 2011 bubble was a simple speculative bubble that burst, plain and simple.

Pump and dump requires that some parties know the value to be nothing (or very small) and yet they intentionally work to bid up the price in order to "cash out" and let the thing crash down. I think the speculators in 2011 were genuinely speculating... meaning they were trying to figure out the proper price of a Bitcoin, and massive potential of this system caused that price to bubble further than it should've. People realized Bitcoin was very valuable, but perhaps not so valuable yet, and so the bubble popped.

Honestly I think people use the term "pump and dump" so often because it's catchy and allows them to over-simplify a huge number of market variables into an "evil intention" of a few.

[Monster Tent]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

Or Trendon selling stolen coins ?

The correction of mid-august was not a market correction IMO.. It was 1 btc scammer unloading tons of stolen BTC.. Market knew it, quickly recover to real valuation !

I hope he sold them. The possibility of those thieves and scammers retaining significant bitcoin holdings down the road bothers me.

They own about 18-20% of all the bitcoins.

[notme]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

Or Trendon selling stolen coins ?

The correction of mid-august was not a market correction IMO.. It was 1 btc scammer unloading tons of stolen BTC.. Market knew it, quickly recover to real valuation !

I hope he sold them. The possibility of those thieves and scammers retaining significant bitcoin holdings down the road bothers me.

They own about 18-20% of all the bitcoins.

Still better than the USD.  The USD scammers are printing more and more as we speak, devaluing the savings of honest workers.

[molecular]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

Or Trendon selling stolen coins ?

The correction of mid-august was not a market correction IMO.. It was 1 btc scammer unloading tons of stolen BTC.. Market knew it, quickly recover to real valuation !

DoomDumas, you are smarter than that and like me know that the "real valuation" of 1 bitcoin is 1 ounce of gold. The market just doesn't quite believe it yet... but it's getting there.

[nobbynobbynoob]

DoomDumas, you are smarter than that and like me know that the "real valuation" of 1 bitcoin is 1 ounce of gold. The market just doesn't quite believe it yet... but it's getting there.

Maybe, but by the time BTC reaches $1500+, assuming it does, one troy ounce of pure gold might be trading at $20k+.

[Roger_Murdock]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

Or Trendon selling stolen coins ?

The correction of mid-august was not a market correction IMO.. It was 1 btc scammer unloading tons of stolen BTC.. Market knew it, quickly recover to real valuation !

DoomDumas, you are smarter than that and like me know that the "real valuation" of 1 bitcoin is 1 ounce of gold. The market just doesn't quite believe it yet... but it's getting there.

molecular, you are smarter than that, and like me you know that around 6 billion ounces of gold have already been mined (i.e. around 285 ounces of gold for every one of the 21 million bitcoins that will ever exist). You also know that the properties of a bitcoin make it at least 5 times better as a money than the properties of gold.  Thus, you know that the "real valuation" of 1 bitcoin is at least around 90 pounds of gold.  But you're right, the market hasn't quite recognized this yet. I wish it would hurry up. 

[humanitee]

^ Jetpack uber bulls.

[Melbustus]

I hope he sold them. The possibility of those thieves and scammers retaining significant bitcoin holdings down the road bothers me.

They own about 18-20% of all the bitcoins.

Where do you get 18-20%? I calculate ~535,000 stolen/scammed coins (from this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83794.0 ), which is 2.54% of the ultimate 21,000,000 coin supply (about 5% of the current supply).

[molecular]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

Or Trendon selling stolen coins ?

The correction of mid-august was not a market correction IMO.. It was 1 btc scammer unloading tons of stolen BTC.. Market knew it, quickly recover to real valuation !

DoomDumas, you are smarter than that and like me know that the "real valuation" of 1 bitcoin is 1 ounce of gold. The market just doesn't quite believe it yet... but it's getting there.

molecular, you are smarter than that, and like me you know that around 6 billion ounces of gold have already been mined (i.e. around 285 ounces of gold for every one of the 21 million bitcoins that will ever exist). You also know that the properties of a bitcoin make it at least 5 times better as a money than the properties of gold.  Thus, you know that the "real valuation" of 1 bitcoin is at least around 90 pounds of gold.  But you're right, the market hasn't quite recognized this yet. I wish it would hurry up. 

I stand in awe of your smartness! Now let's go tell the market about this.

[foggyb]

I hope he sold them. The possibility of those thieves and scammers retaining significant bitcoin holdings down the road bothers me.

They own about 18-20% of all the bitcoins.

Where do you get 18-20%? I calculate ~535,000 stolen/scammed coins (from this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83794.0 ), which is 2.54% of the ultimate 21,000,000 coin supply (about 5% of the current supply).

How do we know most weren't sold or spent?

[Melbustus]

I hope he sold them. The possibility of those thieves and scammers retaining significant bitcoin holdings down the road bothers me.

They own about 18-20% of all the bitcoins.

Where do you get 18-20%? I calculate ~535,000 stolen/scammed coins (from this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83794.0 ), which is 2.54% of the ultimate 21,000,000 coin supply (about 5% of the current supply).

How do we know most weren't sold or spent?

Most probably were. I certainly hope so.

[Piper67]

I hope he sold them. The possibility of those thieves and scammers retaining significant bitcoin holdings down the road bothers me.

They own about 18-20% of all the bitcoins.

Where do you get 18-20%? I calculate ~535,000 stolen/scammed coins (from this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83794.0 ), which is 2.54% of the ultimate 21,000,000 coin supply (about 5% of the current supply).

How do we know most weren't sold or spent?

Most probably were. I certainly hope so.

I think they were. For each hack or theft there's a corresponding dump.

[flaab]

so the real question is.... did anyone actually pay for wordpress with bitcoin?

I definetely didn't because of the Gresham's Law. I prefer to pay in dollars and keep bitcoins and gold.

[dacoinminster]

Through a bit of absurd luck, I managed to sell 5 BTC on Tradehill for $34 at the peak of the previous bubble.

It wasn't on Mt Gox, so maybe it doesn't count, but for me at least the mental milestone is $34.

Incidentally, I didn't enjoy selling at $34 - I was just paying some mining expenses, not trying to time the top of the bubble. I believe that the buyer of those 5 BTC made a fantastic investment if they are holding them for the long term.