Bet: Bitcoin to top $900 before Sep 2016

[etile]

Hi!

I am YES side bettor from bitbet.us/bet/1251/bitcoin-to-top-900-before-sep-2016/

The price of one Bitcoin in USD will rise over $900 before September 2016 as per Bitstamp .

BitBet not works anymore so I want bet with anyone with 2of2 multisig transaction
as described here: people.xiph.org/~greg/escrowexample.txt


The bet with 1 : 3.8 ratio.

So I want to bet 1.0 BTC on Yes side.
You should bet 3.8 BTC on No side.

So we transfer 1.3 + 4.1 btc = 5.4 btc on new 2x2 multisig address.

After Sep 01 2016 or after the event we transfer 5.1 btc to the winner side and 0.3 btc to the lost side.


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Added.

The bet with 1.1 : 1 ratio.
The price of one Bitcoin in USD will rise over $600 before September 2016 as per Bitstamp .

So I want to bet 1.1 BTC on Yes side.
You should bet 1.0 BTC on No side.

So we transfer 1.5 + 1.4 btc = 2.9 btc on new 2x2 multisig address.

After Sep 01 2016 or after the event we transfer 2.5 btc to the winner side and 0.4 btc to the lost side.

Anyone want make bet with me?


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Added some bets on Betmoose

The price of one Bitcoin in USD will rise over $900 before September 1st 2016
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-to-top-900-before-sep-2016-1879

The price of one Bitcoin in USD will rise over $600 before August 1st 2016
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-to-top-600-before-aug-2016-1878


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Added

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-to-top-1000-before-nov-2016-1930

https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/bitcoin/match/
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-to-top-1000-before-oct-2016/
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-to-top-600-before-sep-2016/

https://bitbet.us/bet/1272/bitcoin-to-top-1000-usd-before-january-2017/

https://www.predictious.com/economics

[1715112012]

1715112012

[1715112012]

1715112012

[defined]

Why do you want a 1 to 5 ratio? That means you are not so sure about the $900. I can take your bet for a 5 to 1 ratio: you spend 5 bitcoin it will reach $900, I give you 1 bitcoin saying it will be less.

[talks_cheep]

It should be an even bet, 50-50. I mean, I'd like to bet 100 BTC that it will go 900; you will bet your 100 BTC it won't. Go big or go home.

[talkbitcoin]

i think there is a pretty good chance that bitcoin will rise in the summer around the halving time. i will never bet on it especially bet on the price going to $900 because it might just go as high as $600-$650 even because of the halving.

[umaOuma]

i think there is a pretty good chance that bitcoin will rise in the summer around the halving time. i will never bet on it especially bet on the price going to $900 because it might just go as high as $600-$650 even because of the halving.

Yeah anything around $700 is achievable by sept 2016 as hoping too high would be like day dreaming, and if it reaches there then it would be a win win for all of us.

[etile]

Ok, I moved to 1:4 ratio

[etile]

It should be an even bet, 50-50. I mean, I'd like to bet 100 BTC that it will go 900; you will bet your 100 BTC it won't. Go big or go home.

May be 50:50 with 600 usd/btc before Sep 2016?

[Lauda]

BitBet not works anymore so I want bet with anyone with 2of2 multisig transaction

Two out of two isn't the right way to go. What happens when the losing party refuses to let go of their funds? You will end up in a long (possibly 'permanent') stalemate. Just use what was suggested in the link that you've provided:

Instead the parties could do a 2-of-3 which would allow a mediator to settle a dispute, that works exactly the same but instead of two public keys three would be provided.

Ok, I moved to 1:4 ratio

Odds are bad for the 'no' side. I don't see why someone would want to risk 4 BTC for a potential win of 1 BTC.

[onlinedragon]

That is big risk gambling it's not even sure we will hit the $900 price. I should try other gambling instead of such speculation.

[etile]

Two out of two isn't the right way to go. What happens when the losing party refuses to let go of their funds? You will end up in a long (possibly 'permanent') stalemate. Just use what was suggested in the link that you've provided:

The losing party want to receive 0.1 btc for the lost side.

We can rise it to 0.2 btc or to 0.5 btc if you want

[Lauda]

The losing party want to receive 0.1 btc for the lost side.

You don't understand how 2 of 2 multisig works obviously nor did you understand my post. It is not well suited for gambling. Once someone loses, they can refuse to release their money.

[defined]

The losing party want to receive 0.1 btc for the lost side.

We can rise it to 0.2 btc or to 0.5 btc if you want

So: I lose. You win. I get 0.1 BTC, you get 5.9 BTC. If I do not sign, we both get nothing. I'll make you an offer you can not refuse: pay me 2 bitcoin for my signature code!
You can see the flaw in your system.

[etile]

The losing party want to receive 0.1 btc for the lost side.

You don't understand how 2 of 2 multisig works obviously nor did you understand my post. It is not well suited for gambling. Once someone loses, they can refuse to release their money.

Yes, and they never receive 0.1 btc bonus.

We can make 10 btc bonus and make bet for 1:1 btc for 600$ usd/btc before Sep 2016

So you send 11 btc to 2of2 address, and I send 11 btc to 2of2 address.

One side win 1 btc, other side lost 1 btc.

So lost side want to receive 10 btc back and release money.

[etile]

The losing party want to receive 0.1 btc for the lost side.

We can rise it to 0.2 btc or to 0.5 btc if you want

So: I lose. You win. I get 0.1 BTC, you get 5.9 BTC. If I do not sign, we both get nothing. I'll make you an offer you can not refuse: pay me 2 bitcoin for my signature code!
You can see the flaw in your system.

You never receive more than 0.1 btc.

You release this money in 2026 if you found me :-)

[Lauda]

We can make 10 btc bonus and make bet for 1:1 btc for 600$ usd/btc before Sep 2016
-snip-

You are just complicating things now. By using a 2 out of 2 address in gambling you are asking for trouble, some people are bad losers. Just use a 2 out of 3 address and you will be fine.

You never receive more than 0.1 btc.
You release this money in 2026 if you found me :-)

This doesn't make sense.

I'll make you an offer you can not refuse: pay me 2 bitcoin for my signature code! You can see the flaw in your system.

Exactly!

[Mr.grin]

I am not sure if the price of bitcoin will rise as high as it was before the month of September 2016. The fact I'm also not sure that the price of bitcoin will pass $ 800 before September, but nobody knew about the rise in price of bitcoin, so I still hope that it will be true -Right occurs even though the possibility of large price increases $ 900 before the month of September was 20% 

[Astermony]

It could happen. I think the price of bitcoin could double to $800 just before the halving. So $900 is possible later.

[Skaven]

This can happen but I do not think that the chance is to big. If this happens this would be a good thing for the people who want to sell their bitcoins. But for the people who want to buy this would discourage them to continue on with Bitcoin.

[etile]

You are just complicating things now. By using a 2 out of 2 address in gambling you are asking for trouble, some people are bad losers. Just use a 2 out of 3 address and you will be fine.

And who will be third party? You? Your friend? Mircea Popescu?

How often do you lock your money with 2of2 multisig address? Any stats?

[ingiltere]

I think Bitcoin being 900$ until September 2016 has more chance than it stuck to this price. I agree with your choice. You give only 1.25 odds for it not to happen, if it won't then the participator need to wait for 5 months for such a low odd, that doesn't make sense at all.