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Author Topic: the halving is priced in - face it....  (Read 2383 times)
jasonjm
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April 27, 2016, 07:26:30 PM
 #41

I don't believe your theory on stock dividends / stock price is accurate.

else why don't the hedge funds just buy stocks 1 week before dividends and then sell the day after? if it was such an easy market beating strategy they would all be on it. I work for a lot of hedge funds and none of them do this.

You could just as easily speculate big money is smarter than that regarding bitcoin, IE buy bitcoin when it is down and far in advance, and then sell to the masses as halving gets closer? I am not saying I am smart money, but it is certainly what I did, in for average of $220 and out for average of $418

Either way I don't see what the point of holding bitcoin here is. The only things that make sense is to sell here, and wait to see if it can close daily over $500. If it does buy back in. So you might lose 10% gains but if it doesn't break $500 you will be able to buy back in much more than at a 10% discount from here. Probabilities.

But each has their own game plan.



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April 27, 2016, 09:00:39 PM
 #42

I don't believe your theory on stock dividends / stock price is accurate.

else why don't the hedge funds just buy stocks 1 week before dividends and then sell the day after? if it was such an easy market beating strategy they would all be on it. I work for a lot of hedge funds and none of them do this.

You could just as easily speculate big money is smarter than that regarding bitcoin, IE buy bitcoin when it is down and far in advance, and then sell to the masses as halving gets closer? I am not saying I am smart money, but it is certainly what I did, in for average of $220 and out for average of $418

Either way I don't see what the point of holding bitcoin here is. The only things that make sense is to sell here, and wait to see if it can close daily over $500. If it does buy back in. So you might lose 10% gains but if it doesn't break $500 you will be able to buy back in much more than at a 10% discount from here. Probabilities.

But each has their own game plan.




You misunderstand me. Stock prices gradually rise until the dividend date and then *fall* by the amount of the dividend. That's exactly why you can't by right before dividends are paid and sell right after (if it didn't work this way, you could, which is why it doesn't work this way*). For example if a stock is $20 and then pays a $1 dividend, it will drop about $1 the next day (of course market fluctuations can change this) so that the value to investors is the same before and after.

See this article: Why don't investors buy stock just before the dividend date and sell right afterwards?

Also, I think you are overestimating the strength of the $500 level. $500 is a psychological barrier, but it's not (necessarily) an actual resistance. In other words, there's no reason to favor buying then over buying now. That's like saying (when the price is $420) I want to see if the price can break $443 before I buy. Unless there is a resistance there, $443 is just another price.

So IF you think the price will go up, maybe you should buy. IF you think it will go down, then you are correct to wait. But just because the price breaks $500 does NOT mean there will be ANY more gains. It could break $500, sit at $515 for a month and then crash.

*Such obvious opportunities for profit are exploited until they no longer exist.



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jasonjm
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April 27, 2016, 09:17:30 PM
 #43

bitcoin reminds me exactly of gold

there is no real true way to value gold or bitcoin accurately, they just move around as people buy or sell it. They don't have any future earnings, they for the most part don't have a value outside of what the next person is willing to pay for it.

so market sentiment / crowd opinion drive both more than anything else.

if its going up people want more if its going down they sell.

close over 500 in my opinion will bring new money in. And I am not convinced this will happen, could just as easily pull the rug out from everyone and head down, I just think being long bitcoin here is a poor risk / reward probability.

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April 28, 2016, 12:19:42 AM
 #44

The only way the halving can be priced in is if rich miners hold on to their bitcoins to sell them at a later date.

But since large scale miners have large scale operating costs i don't think this is very likely.

A serious miner won't be able to hold onto his bitcoins for months and months because he won't be able to pay his electricity bills which are in the thousands or tens of thousands a month or worse.
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April 28, 2016, 12:37:47 AM
 #45

The only way the halving can be priced in is if rich miners hold on to their bitcoins to sell them at a later date.

But since large scale miners have large scale operating costs i don't think this is very likely.

A serious miner won't be able to hold onto his bitcoins for months and months because he won't be able to pay his electricity bills which are in the thousands or tens of thousands a month or worse.

Mining farms can let their coins pile up and still pay their bills.

Let's take Antpool as an example. Today it minted 40 blocks which equals 1000BTC. And yesterday even more than that, but let's take 40 blocks per day as an average. 1000BTC is worth $437,000 at current rate. do that x30 = 30,000BTC x $437 = $13,110,000 per month!!!

Even if they pay $100,000 - $500,000 per month on bills, just look at what they can stash up. Wink

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April 28, 2016, 03:12:01 AM
 #46

The only way the halving can be priced in is if rich miners hold on to their bitcoins to sell them at a later date.

But since large scale miners have large scale operating costs i don't think this is very likely.

A serious miner won't be able to hold onto his bitcoins for months and months because he won't be able to pay his electricity bills which are in the thousands or tens of thousands a month or worse.

the mining supply of BTC is becoming more and more irrelevant compared to the number of BTC floating around that is not in the hands of miners, as time goes on.

If the masses panic and sell, it will bring 100 000s of coins, maybe even a few million into the the supply chain.


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April 28, 2016, 09:07:19 AM
 #47

The only way the halving can be priced in is if rich miners hold on to their bitcoins to sell them at a later date.

But since large scale miners have large scale operating costs i don't think this is very likely.

A serious miner won't be able to hold onto his bitcoins for months and months because he won't be able to pay his electricity bills which are in the thousands or tens of thousands a month or worse.

the mining supply of BTC is becoming more and more irrelevant compared to the number of BTC floating around that is not in the hands of miners, as time goes on.

If the masses panic and sell, it will bring 100 000s of coins, maybe even a few million into the the supply chain.


May people are saying that the value will be not even that high after the halving and the reason why they think that is because the value kept stable for a long time so that is bad.
But maybe it will rise, and it is indeed hard to know what is going to happen with Bitcoin itself.
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April 28, 2016, 09:27:34 AM
 #48

That all your own opinions but i don't think that what are you saying about halving . halving is a good thing to get profit . also when halving is coming than automatically the price of bitcoin is increasing and it is also profitable thing so you should use your sense and also use the halving and get profit.. 

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April 28, 2016, 09:33:54 AM
 #49

If you wana rich and also using the bitcoins, so should use the halving, i don't understand why you don't like halving, you can see the price of bitcoins is  increasing everyday because of halving is coming after 2 months, but when halving will close than the price of bitcoins will be down. so it all depend on use how we use our bitcoins and get profit.
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April 28, 2016, 09:42:26 AM
 #50

If you wana rich and also using the bitcoins, so should use the halving, i don't understand why you don't like halving, you can see the price of bitcoins is  increasing everyday because of halving is coming after 2 months, but when halving will close than the price of bitcoins will be down. so it all depend on use how we use our bitcoins and get profit.
Halving will be liked by all as it owns only profit to users, the price will be high during the time of halving and I assure that after halving too the price won't drop down, we can expect good profits at the end of this year.

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April 28, 2016, 01:13:44 PM
 #51

Nothing is going to happen except maybe a price raise due to a speculatory bubble.

Look at LTC in 2015.


Can you guess when the halving happened?



Can you notice any change? There has been no long term change since then, and the price is about the same as it was during the halving almost a year ago, on August 25 2015.

The only currencies for which an immediate effect are seen in price are those like doge which are extremely susceptible to pumping due to lower market caps.
BTC is going to go on as usual, the only people seeing a difference will be the miners.

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April 28, 2016, 01:24:25 PM
 #52

still higher average price than before the halving.
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April 28, 2016, 04:28:07 PM
 #53

The only way the halving can be priced in is if rich miners hold on to their bitcoins to sell them at a later date.

But since large scale miners have large scale operating costs i don't think this is very likely.

A serious miner won't be able to hold onto his bitcoins for months and months because he won't be able to pay his electricity bills which are in the thousands or tens of thousands a month or worse.

the mining supply of BTC is becoming more and more irrelevant compared to the number of BTC floating around that is not in the hands of miners, as time goes on.

If the masses panic and sell, it will bring 100 000s of coins, maybe even a few million into the the supply chain.


We all dont even know what is going to happen with Bitcoin and that is the problem, you see already that the price is rising slowly but it takes a long time until it will be high.
And that can be bad because not everyone has the patience for it to wait such a long time.
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April 28, 2016, 06:24:18 PM
 #54

That all your own opinions but i don't think that what are you saying about halving . halving is a good thing to get profit . also when halving is coming than automatically the price of bitcoin is increasing and it is also profitable thing so you should use your sense and also use the halving and get profit.. 

yes because deep thinkers like yourself are the only ones who could see the halving coming?

to everyone else, the halving is going to be a complete surprise.

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May 01, 2016, 07:29:46 PM
 #55

Still not over 500

But I guess it is hanging in there

Go brave longs, you are braver than I.

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May 01, 2016, 08:30:39 PM
 #56

Still not over 500

But I guess it is hanging in there

Go brave longs, you are braver than I.
It may take another month or two before we see the price reach $500 and even more than that.

We just need to have patience as there is nothing else that we can do right now.

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May 01, 2016, 10:14:28 PM
 #57

People said the same thing prior to the last halving event - that the halving was already priced in, as there was no significant rise in price leading up to or even during the actual halving event. We didn't see a significant rise in price until a few weeks or so after. Not saying this time will be the same. i'm just sayin...
The rise in price could also have been due to other factors. I do not personally remember what had happened [didn't do the research yet] but bitcoin has been very volatile. There's no guarantee that this halving the price will increase greatly. I will concede in saying that I have bullish beliefs towards the halving and that it would create a price increase, albeit I do not expect that the price will reach high levels [like some people have predicted] such as $1000, where it doubles.

The only way the halving can be priced in is if rich miners hold on to their bitcoins to sell them at a later date.

But since large scale miners have large scale operating costs i don't think this is very likely.

A serious miner won't be able to hold onto his bitcoins for months and months because he won't be able to pay his electricity bills which are in the thousands or tens of thousands a month or worse.

Mining farms can let their coins pile up and still pay their bills.

Let's take Antpool as an example. Today it minted 40 blocks which equals 1000BTC. And yesterday even more than that, but let's take 40 blocks per day as an average. 1000BTC is worth $437,000 at current rate. do that x30 = 30,000BTC x $437 = $13,110,000 per month!!!

Even if they pay $100,000 - $500,000 per month on bills, just look at what they can stash up. Wink
But there isn't really a direct way of knowing how much the miners pay every day. The costs per mining rig could be pretty large when they add up to the amount of hashing power that they possess. Okay, sure... They make a lot of money, but come the halving, that will get cut in half. Perhaps they will be in profit for a while [or at least until the next halving] but I assume that many of the pool workers sell off the bitcoins immediately, because there are the mining costs and then there are also the people costs.

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May 11, 2016, 09:01:47 AM
 #58

I do not see much price rise. It is all within a small range. If the price breaks $480, then we call it price rise.
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May 20, 2016, 01:41:28 AM
 #59

And I am still waiting for that 500

As time passes this call looks to be more and more correct

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jaredboice
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May 20, 2016, 02:01:54 AM
 #60

The 21 million Bitcoin limit is priced in! It was known about in advance! Markets are forward looking. Even the halving 4 years from now is priced in!!! 🙄😱🙈😭
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