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Author Topic: the halving is priced in - face it....  (Read 2377 times)
jasonjm
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April 06, 2016, 10:31:34 PM
 #1

you know that spike from Nov to now? where it more than doubled? that is the halving priced in....

why? markets are forward looking, the halving is going to surprise exactly no one.

anyways daily volume is pathetic, I sold all my BTC again for a 2nd time.

Maybe I am wrong and it goes back to $1000, who knows, all I know is I am out with good profits again for 2nd time.

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April 06, 2016, 10:50:34 PM
 #2

People said the same thing prior to the last halving event - that the halving was already priced in, as there was no significant rise in price leading up to or even during the actual halving event. We didn't see a significant rise in price until a few weeks or so after. Not saying this time will be the same. i'm just sayin...
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April 06, 2016, 11:08:41 PM
 #3

If you were an adherent to the strong Efficient Market Hypothesis you'd say that it was always priced in.  It's totally not a surprise.  Any news that's known is already reflected in the price at any given moment--I don't believe in it that ardently but I think OP is right.

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April 06, 2016, 11:13:53 PM
 #4

I don't think any one person can confidently say either way if it's priced in or not already. We'll just have to wait & see.

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April 06, 2016, 11:21:52 PM
 #5

The halving is most certainly not priced in.  The price is being constricted by the giant bullish pennant pattern forming on the 1 year chart.  It is beautiful and the tip of the pennant should be right around when segwit is released.  Also, this lightning network stuff coming out sounds super bullish.  I've seen predictions of millions of transactions per second.

Bitcoin will be very powerful as these changes unfold along with the halving.  I am loading up big time.
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April 06, 2016, 11:22:14 PM
 #6

you know that spike from Nov to now? where it more than doubled? that is the halving priced in....

why? markets are forward looking, the halving is going to surprise exactly no one.

anyways daily volume is pathetic, I sold all my BTC again for a 2nd time.

Maybe I am wrong and it goes back to $1000, who knows, all I know is I am out with good profits again for 2nd time.

No the halving is not already priced in, the demand in November was from Chinese exchanges reinstating direct bank deposits plus the MMM ponzi,
now we see just a shadow of those events. Chinese miners are draining the bid side on Huobi, and the wisest path is to correct and start again.
It's possible that the later increase in western exchanges' bid side to be the "pricing in", but if Huobi crashes they'll follow.
Right now volume is low, since it's a high risk to take sides, I see more risk to be long, and little reward (can reenter later if this breaks 470$, on a retracement).

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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April 06, 2016, 11:23:56 PM
 #7

I don't believe the block halving is already priced in right now. There is much more room for the price to go up to levels greater than $500 this year. I can agree that last weeks the trading volumes are very low and don't offer traders much satisfaction at the moment. Just have patience. We'll see the volatility return soon.

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April 06, 2016, 11:30:37 PM
 #8

Same banker shills and random noobs keep posting the halving is priced in when it's not possible to be:

There is no such thing as "halving already priced in" because the mining power increased a lot when price went up.  For the halving to be "priced in", the mining power would of needed to stay the same after price went up, then halving happens, and mining power is still the same.

As things are now, a lot of miners would need to turn off if no price increase happened for the halving.  So absolutely nothing is priced in.  Miners also tend to mine at a loss in hopes coins wil lbe worth more in the future rather than turning them off.  Nobody is going to be turning off their millions of dollars in miners.  They will simply stop selling coins at a loss, then the market dries up and price goes up.  This is why it's inevitable price increases afterwards regardless of what happens before.  All miners in the world did not stop selling coins 6 months in advance to make the price go up already.  It's possible a few did, but I highly doubt the majority of all miners removed all coins from market 6+ months in advance.  The price would still be increasing by the day if they did so.

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April 07, 2016, 01:04:54 AM
 #9

This price now from November is just pre halving whale accumulation.

Just wait until this shit really fucking starts.
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April 07, 2016, 01:16:47 AM
 #10

I refuse to face your ridiculous proposition. We here, in the speculation forum, are nearly unanimous in our opinion that the halvening will take us to the moon.

Worst case, it might not double in price... but there are plenty of guaranteed profits to be had if you just buy nao.
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April 07, 2016, 01:31:06 AM
 #11

I think it's a bit too early to say that as bitcoin tends to be too unpredictable. Perhaps the hype generated by the halving could bring in a price rise just days before it, or not. I'm sure profit taking wouldn't allow the price to go that far though as we've seen some significant dips recently.














 

 

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April 07, 2016, 01:35:00 AM
 #12

What is killing the halving rally is the block size debate.  

In January, developer Mike Hearn wrote his Medium.com article blasting Bitcoin and it fell from $420 to $350.  

In February, BTC recovered to $420 when Brian Armstrong of Coinbase wrote a Medium.com article knocking BTC down just below $390.  

Once again, we've recovered to $420.  Wonder who will write the next Medium.com article...  

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April 07, 2016, 01:48:11 AM
 #13

Same banker shills and random noobs keep posting the halving is priced in when it's not possible to be:

There is no such thing as "halving already priced in" because the mining power increased a lot when price went up.  For the halving to be "priced in", the mining power would of needed to stay the same after price went up, then halving happens, and mining power is still the same.

As things are now, a lot of miners would need to turn off if no price increase happened for the halving.  So absolutely nothing is priced in.  Miners also tend to mine at a loss in hopes coins wil lbe worth more in the future rather than turning them off.  Nobody is going to be turning off their millions of dollars in miners.  They will simply stop selling coins at a loss, then the market dries up and price goes up.  This is why it's inevitable price increases afterwards regardless of what happens before.  All miners in the world did not stop selling coins 6 months in advance to make the price go up already.  It's possible a few did, but I highly doubt the majority of all miners removed all coins from market 6+ months in advance.  The price would still be increasing by the day if they did so.
Roach, why do you say it isn't possible?  I really, really don't get it.  I'm definitely not an expert on bitcoin, mining, or anything else crypto-related--can you dumb it down to retard level for me.  I have been saying the halving is priced in for a while now and it certainly seems to me that it should be.  I already said it in this thread, and it's an EMH argument.

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April 07, 2016, 02:02:13 AM
 #14

I think the previous increase from $200+ to $400+ was a market adjustment. The real effect of reward halving is not going to be seen overnight.

At the moment, demand has not gone up and those who believe the price will go up have already placed their bets. The supply will only go down in July. That's why nothing can be observed related to the halving.

Besides, the disagreement in blocksize increase will suppress demand...

But one thing for sure is that we are going to see a wild ride in the coming months...

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April 07, 2016, 02:29:25 AM
 #15

I am not sure 100% if it is priced in or not either... but I think it may be priced in. Most people is too sure in that the halving will produce double price in my opinion.

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April 07, 2016, 02:56:07 AM
 #16

Even if it is priced in, selling all coins would be nonsense move. If you look at the price there is no room for down. What will it be, 400 to 300? That doesn't affect us too big. But if it goes up 400 to 1000 that would be huge. So I won't sell for these prices. I'd rather wait 5 more years than selling it from 4XX dollars.


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r0ach
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April 07, 2016, 04:32:56 AM
 #17

My post to debunk this bullshit:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1428863.0

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pooya87
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April 07, 2016, 04:44:20 AM
 #18

you haven't yes seen the spike yet. the November rise was mostly because of what Tzupy said and also the market was so ready for the rise since it has been stable for so long and has tested 270-280 before then the rise started and it went to 400 then 300. the important part is that right now the above 400 has been stable and even with all the drama and hearn fud it is till above 400 strongly.

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April 07, 2016, 05:20:16 AM
 #19

the low trade volume on bitcoin really bugs me a lot..... usually that is a very bad omen.



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April 07, 2016, 06:37:30 AM
 #20

you will be back soon when we surpass the 500 mark, you're lucky that you may not lose much when you will enter again in the market if you're good enough

the halving was priced in on in those 3 days of the pump now it's not priced in anymore due to the diff
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