And in the same progression, do the math for a martingale... far riskier. Calculate the win amount on what I just showed:
1 -1
2 -3
3 -6
4 -10
5 W 0
<- -510 W 10
20 W 30
1 29
2 27
3 27
<- 
maybe 3 W 306 lose 21
1 20
2 18
3 15
4 W 19
8 W 27
16 lose 18
<- 111 17
2 15
3 W 18
6 W 24
12 W 36 win
MARTINGALE
Martingaling the SAME sequence, a 2x doubling on each loss = 8 WIN
36 VS 8 U messed up in your own system three times
It would be 27 VS 9
But showing one sequence which works better for your system then martingale is pretty naive.
I can give u a better strategy for your sequence:
Keep betting 1 and bet 10 every fifth bet xD
Would be 32 VS 27 for my system
He screwed up his math on his quick example. But his posted chart is correct from what I'm looking at.
I tried this a while back just playing for fun, I was more interested in gaming/bitcoin/commerce, and tried this out when the OP originally posted.
My conclusion was: The house does indeed have edge, you cannot turn -EV into +EV and vice versa.
However, when I did play this strategy, it's pretty easy to hit 3 streaks when playing 2x odds. I tried a few variants of my own, shooting for 4 streaks, and so on.
The long short of it is: If you have a decent bankroll, or budget your bets correctly, you can withstand a swing down before the swing up. I ended up in profit. Hitting if I remember correctly a 3x streak after 6 losses.
Granted I just playing around, I think my base was 0.00000100. But it resulted in I guess:
An initial loss of 0.00002100 (6 losses upping 1 step per loss).
Then I won on 7th.
700 win
1400 win
2800 win
- 2100 loss from first 6 rolls.
0.00002880 Net Profit
Now had I been playing at a base of 0.10, the win would have been 2.8BTC.
3 streaks, no so uncommon. The question is how many do you allow yourself to lose before going back to reset. His chart goes to 30.
Using Martingale, you'd be busted out, by 20ish most likely.
With this, if you were so unlucky to roll 30 losses, then only 1 win and then lose-- math in my head tells me, your loss would be under 0.01BTC using the 1000 satoshi base.
If you rolled 30 losses and then rolled 3 wins, the payout would be 0.00210000.
Using this system, 30 is survivable.
The sweet spot seems to be around 6-7 losses... best returns around there. Lose 6 or 7, hit a 3 streak. But any 3 streak in any series will profit.
House always wins... if you keep playin!
Cheers!
Strato
