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Author Topic: Explanation for BTC price surge?  (Read 2752 times)
abbyd
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February 12, 2013, 09:28:42 AM
 #1

I'm no expert on financial markets, so can anyone explain the strong upward trend in BTC/USD?
My current theories are (not mutually exclusive, in descending order of likelihood):

* big shot financial people joining speculation
* positive press coverage creating a seller's market
* people hedging against impending fiat currency inflation
* bitcoin is becoming more useful for money laundering
* someone is trying to corner the market (NOT NECESSARILY FOR PROFIT)

On this last point (keep in mind that I regard this as the least likely cause of the up-rush) -
I do find it plausible that a large monetary entity could be fearful of bitcoin. In this scenario,
it would make sense to soak up as many bitcoins as possible to take them out of circulation.
Basically they would be seeking to stall the bitcoin economy. A few hundred million is nothing
to a huge financial entity.
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lucif
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February 12, 2013, 09:31:30 AM
 #2

Look at s&p500 for past two months and look at Bitcoin. It's a wall street bucks.
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February 12, 2013, 09:55:06 AM
 #3

Look at s&p500 for past two months and look at Bitcoin. It's a wall street bucks.

Definitely a correlation there, but bitcoin has almost doubled since Jan '13.
Also I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin was going up while the market is heading
down.
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February 12, 2013, 09:56:05 AM
 #4

#5 is ridiculous. You don't exactly kill bitcoin by buying up a large amount of bitcoin.. that just increases the value of everyone else's.
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February 12, 2013, 10:00:15 AM
 #5

#1 reason of the surge in my opinion is people don't want to miss the boat and see prices rise every day - reinforcing that feeling, making people buy, reinforcing the surge. And round and round we go - until this bubble collapses.

Don't get me wrong, I love bitcoin and all it's possibilities and advantages, but the surge we see right now however is in my opinion a classic bubble - not anything in particular of the 5 things you mention.

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February 12, 2013, 10:15:23 AM
 #6

Sigh, how many threads do we have to see like this.

It's the market finally catching up with the organic growth & big speculative news we've seen over the last few months. Just look at google trends, the casino announcement in the US, wordpress etc.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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February 12, 2013, 10:43:32 AM
 #7

It's the market finally catching up with the organic growth & big speculative news we've seen over the last few months. Just look at google trends, the casino announcement in the US, wordpress etc.

 I disagree. This is not the market catching up. This is something else. Feels like a classic bubble brought on by irrationality.

 I hope I am wrong.
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February 12, 2013, 10:45:43 AM
 #8

It's the market finally catching up with the organic growth & big speculative news we've seen over the last few months. Just look at google trends, the casino announcement in the US, wordpress etc.

 I disagree. This is not the market catching up. This is something else. Feels like a classic bubble brought on by irrationality.

 I hope I am wrong.

Coinbase did over a million dollars last month (and they are just barely open now). This alone is insanely bullish, not bubblish.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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February 12, 2013, 10:47:52 AM
 #9

This alone is insanely bullish, not bubblish.

So there we have it then ? This bubble brought to us by insane bulls ? Wink
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February 12, 2013, 10:48:33 AM
 #10

It's the market finally catching up with the organic growth & big speculative news we've seen over the last few months. Just look at google trends, the casino announcement in the US, wordpress etc.

 I disagree. This is not the market catching up. This is something else. Feels like a classic bubble brought on by irrationality.

 I hope I am wrong.

i too am suspicious of organic growth alone being the sole motivator of 500% ROI yearly growth.

i was trying to talk about this over in the economics mainforum but i just got shat on. it's partly a deflation event. the google trends data is telling; demand is growing rapidly but supply is limited.

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February 12, 2013, 10:54:46 AM
 #11

Back in September, I knew it was going to spike shortly after the New Year due to all the ASIC's coming out. I originally guessed the end of January back then, so I guess I wasn't too far off. Even guessed it would be $25~. Buyers are trying to get some last few coins before ASIC really hits the pools. And miners aren't selling, cause we all know it going even higher than $25. Difficulty is going to go up 20 fold, and everyone's going to be selling off their videocards and/or switching over to Litecoin. You "might" see a surge in LTC in the coming months. I already anticipated this awhile back, and bought a ton. So hopefully both my Bitcoin and Litecoin are soon going to worth a whole hell of a lot more.

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February 12, 2013, 11:04:56 AM
 #12

Back in September, I knew it was going to spike shortly after the New Year due to all the ASIC's coming out. I originally guessed the end of January back then, so I guess I wasn't too far off. Even guessed it would be $25~. Buyers are trying to get some last few coins before ASIC really hits the pools. And miners aren't selling, cause we all know it going even higher than $25. Difficulty is going to go up 20 fold, and everyone's going to be selling off their videocards and/or switching over to Litecoin. You "might" see a surge in LTC in the coming months. I already anticipated this awhile back, and bought a ton. So hopefully both my Bitcoin and Litecoin are soon going to worth a whole hell of a lot more.

Shhh !  ... Cheesy

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February 12, 2013, 02:26:33 PM
 #13

It's the market finally catching up with the organic growth & big speculative news we've seen over the last few months. Just look at google trends, the casino announcement in the US, wordpress etc.

 I disagree. This is not the market catching up. This is something else. Feels like a classic bubble brought on by irrationality.

 I hope I am wrong.

It feels to me like someone "knows something" and is accumulating in anticipation of some major announcement.. If I had to make a completely unsubstantiated guess.. I'd say some major online gambling site is going to start taking bitcoins soon, and the insiders are stocking up in anticipation of the major price spike they expect this will cause.

Sigg

EPIK



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evoorhees
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February 12, 2013, 03:38:39 PM
 #14

Back in September, I knew it was going to spike shortly after the New Year due to all the ASIC's coming out. I originally guessed the end of January back then, so I guess I wasn't too far off. Even guessed it would be $25~. Buyers are trying to get some last few coins before ASIC really hits the pools. And miners aren't selling, cause we all know it going even higher than $25. Difficulty is going to go up 20 fold, and everyone's going to be selling off their videocards and/or switching over to Litecoin. You "might" see a surge in LTC in the coming months. I already anticipated this awhile back, and bought a ton. So hopefully both my Bitcoin and Litecoin are soon going to worth a whole hell of a lot more.

Why do people keep saying this??  ASIC has nothing (or little) to do with the price of bitcoin. It does not change supply. Even if people were buying coins to purchase ASIC's, those coins are being sold for USD.

The only real effect ASIC can/should have on the market price is that they make the network safer. This fact alone doesn't justify a doubling of the btc price though.

There are lots of reasons why the price is high right now, it has nothing to do with ASIC's or mining in any way.
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February 12, 2013, 03:39:32 PM
 #15

It's the market finally catching up with the organic growth & big speculative news we've seen over the last few months. Just look at google trends, the casino announcement in the US, wordpress etc.

 I disagree. This is not the market catching up. This is something else. Feels like a classic bubble brought on by irrationality.

 I hope I am wrong.

It feels to me like someone "knows something" and is accumulating in anticipation of some major announcement.. If I had to make a completely unsubstantiated guess.. I'd say some major online gambling site is going to start taking bitcoins soon, and the insiders are stocking up in anticipation of the major price spike they expect this will cause.

Sigg

Very possible.
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February 12, 2013, 04:10:36 PM
 #16

It's the market finally catching up with the organic growth & big speculative news we've seen over the last few months. Just look at google trends, the casino announcement in the US, wordpress etc.

 I disagree. This is not the market catching up. This is something else. Feels like a classic bubble brought on by irrationality.

 I hope I am wrong.

It feels to me like someone "knows something" and is accumulating in anticipation of some major announcement.. If I had to make a completely unsubstantiated guess.. I'd say some major online gambling site is going to start taking bitcoins soon, and the insiders are stocking up in anticipation of the major price spike they expect this will cause.

Sigg

Totally agree. Someone is trying to accumulate at a measured pace before a big announcement. Once the announcement comes there will be a big spike, and that will be the time for profit-takers to sell.
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February 12, 2013, 04:13:37 PM
 #17

I guess that recent surge is due to increased popularity of Satoshi Dice between Bitcoin-vanilla gamblers.

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February 12, 2013, 04:16:08 PM
 #18

I don't know why there is  surge, except for a lot of developments in the bitcoin economy. I do think that thew real rocket takes off when we beat the all time high price of about $32. At that point people may realize that there is no limit to the value of a bitcoin.

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February 12, 2013, 04:22:14 PM
 #19


There are lots of reasons why the price is high right now, it has nothing to do with ASIC's or mining in any way.

i disagree with this.

investors look to invest in something from many different angles.  some prefer to invest in the stock of a company, others prefer debt.  others prefer venture capital or the IPO.  debt investors might prefer senior secured debt, others junk debt.  all of it matters when analyzing the prospects for that company's success.

while the analogy might not be perfect, in the Bitcoin economy, there are legions of ppl who prefer to mine to obtain Bitcoins.  they may be more comfortable with the technical aspects vs. speculating on an exchange.  they may have a particular expertise which allows them to extract more block rewards than the avg miner.  they may have access to free electricity.  they may just enjoy it more.

what matters is that they are putting their money, time, effort, and expertise into the Bitcoin ecosystem, period. it just happens to be in the form of mining.  and that mining increases the network security and efficiency which speculators/investors like myself value very highly and thus invest accordingly.  mining (ASIC's) is worth at least as much as the speculators and the merchants to ensuring Bitcoin's success.
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February 12, 2013, 04:23:47 PM
 #20

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