Fundamental analysis thread

[niko]

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

True, but sad. It shows that not much has happened since ~2010 to realize the potential of this new technology. Once this thread has been updated (if at all) with a wave of major merchants accepting BTC, and things like bitcoin card actually in people's hands - it will be too late to be an early adopter.

[1714466954]

1714466954

[1714466954]

1714466954

[molecular]

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

I sense an evil grin.

[Peter Lambert]

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

True, but sad. It shows that not much has happened since ~2010 to realize the potential of this new technology. Once this thread has been updated (if at all) with a wave of major merchants accepting BTC, and things like bitcoin card actually in people's hands - it will be too late to be an early adopter.

I would not say nothing has happened since 2010. There seems to be much better infrastructure around bitcoins now than when I started using it in 2011, they are more useful and easier to use now.

[niko]

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

True, but sad. It shows that not much has happened since ~2010 to realize the potential of this new technology. Once this thread has been updated (if at all) with a wave of major merchants accepting BTC, and things like bitcoin card actually in people's hands - it will be too late to be an early adopter.

I would not say nothing has happened since 2010. There seems to be much better infrastructure around bitcoins now than when I started using it in 2011, they are more useful and easier to use now.

I agree, that is why I said "not much" - exchanges and merchants come, but most of them go away. Some stay. BitPay is certainly doing a great service to us all, and earning a buck along the way. Great. Paysius and other competitors appear dormant. Not good. Few donation-accepting entities have done quite well.  There are more open-source clients to choose from now than in ~2010. Great. But there have been no breakthroughs, just many small steps. Are we going to outpace the inevitable disasters, by growing strong and diverse enough so they don't do much damage?  Right now, politics of development are one such potential disaster, with lots of ugly and boneheaded disagreements regarding block size, for example.
I'd say we've been moving too slowly, with lots of amateurish and naive mistakes and empty promises. In this technological era, four years is a long time. It's time to grow up.

[niko]

American Drug Enforcement Administration arrested a drug dealer and seized - among other stuff - 11 bitcoins. Thus, bitcoins are treated by the government agents much like any other valuable asset.

http://www.theverge.com/2013/6/26/4468302/drug-enforcement-agency-seizes-11-bitcoins-in-south-carolina-bust-silk-road

==============

Government of Germany declares capital gains from bitcoins tax-free if bitcoins were held for more than a year.

According to German news site Die Welt, financial expert Frank Schaeffler stated: “It is good that investment in bitcoins is finally [a] legal certainty. Private profits from the sale of bitcoins are tax-free after one year”.

http://www.coindesk.com/german-government-relieves-capital-gains-tax-on-bitcoin-positions/

[halfawake]

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...

True, but sad. It shows that not much has happened since ~2010 to realize the potential of this new technology. Once this thread has been updated (if at all) with a wave of major merchants accepting BTC, and things like bitcoin card actually in people's hands - it will be too late to be an early adopter.

I would not say nothing has happened since 2010. There seems to be much better infrastructure around bitcoins now than when I started using it in 2011, they are more useful and easier to use now.

I agree, that is why I said "not much" - exchanges and merchants come, but most of them go away. Some stay. BitPay is certainly doing a great service to us all, and earning a buck along the way. Great. Paysius and other competitors appear dormant. Not good. Few donation-accepting entities have done quite well.  There are more open-source clients to choose from now than in ~2010. Great. But there have been no breakthroughs, just many small steps. Are we going to outpace the inevitable disasters, by growing strong and diverse enough so they don't do much damage?  Right now, politics of development are one such potential disaster, with lots of ugly and boneheaded disagreements regarding block size, for example.
I'd say we've been moving too slowly, with lots of amateurish and naive mistakes and empty promises. In this technological era, four years is a long time. It's time to grow up.

It may seem slow now looking forward, but I'd say going from a brand new currency four years ago to a $1.1 billion dollar market today is pretty damn impressive.  Yes, some bitcoin businesses are succeeding, others are failing.  That's totally normal.  Remember that something like 90% of businesses that are started fail, so this isn't any different than any different market.

[vokain]

It may seem slow now looking forward, but I'd say going from a brand new currency four years ago to a $1.1 billion dollar market today is pretty damn impressive.  Yes, some bitcoin businesses are succeeding, others are failing.  That's totally normal.  Remember that something like 90% of businesses that are started fail, so this isn't any different than any different market.

Sort of irrelevant from your point, but from my entrepreneurship class the idea that an overwhelming majority of new business fail is actually a myth

It is true that many entrepreneurs suffer a number of failures before they are successful. They follow the adage "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, again." In fact, failure can teach many lessons to those willing to learn and often leads to future successes. This is clearly shown by the corridor principle, which states that with every venture launched, new and unintended opportunities often arise. The 3M Corporation invented Post-it notes using a glue that had not been strong enough for its intended use. Rather than throw away the glue, the company focused on finding another use for it and, in the process, developed a multimillion-dollar product. Yet, the statistics of entrepreneurial failure rates have been misleading over the years. In fact, one researcher, Bruce A. Kirchoff, has reported that the "high failure rate" most commonly accepted may be misleading. Tracing 814,000 busi­nesses started in 1977, Kirchoff found that more than 50 percent were still surviving under their original owners or new owners. Additionally, 28 percent voluntarily closed down, and only 18 percent actually "failed" in the sense of leaving behind outstanding liabilities. 12

[prophetx]

It may seem slow now looking forward, but I'd say going from a brand new currency four years ago to a $1.1 billion dollar market today is pretty damn impressive.  Yes, some bitcoin businesses are succeeding, others are failing.  That's totally normal.  Remember that something like 90% of businesses that are started fail, so this isn't any different than any different market.

Sort of irrelevant from your point, but from my entrepreneurship class the idea that an overwhelming majority of new business fail is actually a myth

It is true that many entrepreneurs suffer a number of failures before they are successful. They follow the adage "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, again." In fact, failure can teach many lessons to those willing to learn and often leads to future successes. This is clearly shown by the corridor principle, which states that with every venture launched, new and unintended opportunities often arise. The 3M Corporation invented Post-it notes using a glue that had not been strong enough for its intended use. Rather than throw away the glue, the company focused on finding another use for it and, in the process, developed a multimillion-dollar product. Yet, the statistics of entrepreneurial failure rates have been misleading over the years. In fact, one researcher, Bruce A. Kirchoff, has reported that the "high failure rate" most commonly accepted may be misleading. Tracing 814,000 busi­nesses started in 1977, Kirchoff found that more than 50 percent were still surviving under their original owners or new owners. Additionally, 28 percent voluntarily closed down, and only 18 percent actually "failed" in the sense of leaving behind outstanding liabilities. 12

It all depends on time frame, eventually all businesses "fail"...

[halfawake]

It may seem slow now looking forward, but I'd say going from a brand new currency four years ago to a $1.1 billion dollar market today is pretty damn impressive.  Yes, some bitcoin businesses are succeeding, others are failing.  That's totally normal.  Remember that something like 90% of businesses that are started fail, so this isn't any different than any different market.

Sort of irrelevant from your point, but from my entrepreneurship class the idea that an overwhelming majority of new business fail is actually a myth

It is true that many entrepreneurs suffer a number of failures before they are successful. They follow the adage "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, again." In fact, failure can teach many lessons to those willing to learn and often leads to future successes. This is clearly shown by the corridor principle, which states that with every venture launched, new and unintended opportunities often arise. The 3M Corporation invented Post-it notes using a glue that had not been strong enough for its intended use. Rather than throw away the glue, the company focused on finding another use for it and, in the process, developed a multimillion-dollar product. Yet, the statistics of entrepreneurial failure rates have been misleading over the years. In fact, one researcher, Bruce A. Kirchoff, has reported that the "high failure rate" most commonly accepted may be misleading. Tracing 814,000 busi­nesses started in 1977, Kirchoff found that more than 50 percent were still surviving under their original owners or new owners. Additionally, 28 percent voluntarily closed down, and only 18 percent actually "failed" in the sense of leaving behind outstanding liabilities. 12

Interesting, thanks for correcting my misconception.  I'm curious about this now.  Some cursory googling shows mixed results, a few sites back up what I thought, while a few agree with what you said about most succeeding.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I thought the statistic was that 9 out of 10 first businesses fail. Entrepreneurs' second and third businesses seem to do a lot better, maybe because the first failure disabused them of their initial naïve notions.

[vokain]

Either way, it's a hard statistic to perfectly quantify. I think we can agree on that

[niko]

Staffing site "Outbounders" adds Bitcoin option:

" International payments are a problem when it comes to small transactions. First banks like Paypal take their cut of 3%. Then when we convert USD to other currencies we take another 2% - 3% hit. And sometimes they also incur a fee on their side to withdraw it. By accepting Bitcoin and paying in Bitcoin we can make much smaller payments, more frequently and save on the transaction fees on all sides. In the near future this will enable us to pay out staff on a DAILY basis, which of course staff will love; this is unheard of right now." Says Outbounders.com CEO, James Stinson.

http://www.finextra.com/News/Announcement.aspx?pressreleaseid=50521&topic=retail

[monkeybars]

Government of Germany declares capital gains from bitcoins tax-free if bitcoins were held for more than a year.

According to German news site Die Welt, financial expert Frank Schaeffler stated: “It is good that investment in bitcoins is finally [a] legal certainty. Private profits from the sale of bitcoins are tax-free after one year”.

http://www.coindesk.com/german-government-relieves-capital-gains-tax-on-bitcoin-positions/

Wishful thinking on the gov't's part, that anyone would declare such sales in under a year . . .

[BitChick]

Staffing site "Outbounders" adds Bitcoin option:

" International payments are a problem when it comes to small transactions. First banks like Paypal take their cut of 3%. Then when we convert USD to other currencies we take another 2% - 3% hit. And sometimes they also incur a fee on their side to withdraw it. By accepting Bitcoin and paying in Bitcoin we can make much smaller payments, more frequently and save on the transaction fees on all sides. In the near future this will enable us to pay out staff on a DAILY basis, which of course staff will love; this is unheard of right now." Says Outbounders.com CEO, James Stinson.

http://www.finextra.com/News/Announcement.aspx?pressreleaseid=50521&topic=retail

This is great.  I did not see this in the press release forum.  I am going to add it there if you don't mind.

[vokain]

figured I'd repost here for relevance

Well said. Perhaps Bitcoin holders will see free zones spring up that encourage crypto use and effect better exchange value.

http://www.nhforliberty.com/ron-helwig-discusses-shire-silver-and-bitcoin-at-2013-nh-liberty-forum/

This guy, Ron Helwig, really gets it. I'm glad he's a part of the Free State Project, something I am seriously considering in the future, maybe even as just as a first home.

"And of course, we do accept bitcoins for the Shire Silver, and we've gotten several orders for that. So people who are a little unsure about bitcoins can easily convert them to sound money by buying some Shire Silver!"

"So how do you answer the question that Bitcoin is sound money?"

"Actually, if you think about it, it probably is, to extent that, getting into the whole semantic argument, 'let's be a pure Austrian', all that stuff. Bitcoin either proves via Mises's regression theorem by having an actual value in its utility as a means of exchange, or it disproves Mises' theorem, in which case, is to me, a moot point. But the fact that it's mathematically limited to the 21 million bitcoins, means its essentially sound by mathematics, as opposed to silver and gold, it's sound by physics.  Physics limits the amount of gold and silver available, mathematics limits the amount of bitcoins available."

[niko]

Government of Germany declares capital gains from bitcoins tax-free if bitcoins were held for more than a year.

According to German news site Die Welt, financial expert Frank Schaeffler stated: “It is good that investment in bitcoins is finally [a] legal certainty. Private profits from the sale of bitcoins are tax-free after one year”.

http://www.coindesk.com/german-government-relieves-capital-gains-tax-on-bitcoin-positions/

Wishful thinking on the gov't's part, that anyone would declare such sales in under a year . . .

Making false statements that involve Bitcoin is rather tricky due to the public ledger. It won't be long before your Revenue Agency learns this, and from that point on your strategy will depend on luck, unless you exchange for cash or spend coins directly.  Even then you need to count on your trading partner not reporting the transaction.

There is one sticking point, though: bitcoins are fungible. Thus, you could always claim to have sold at least some of the "old" coins, as long as you've been trading for over a year.

[vokain]

There is one sticking point, though: bitcoins are fungible. Thus, you could always claim to have sold at least some of the "old" coins, as long as you've been trading for over a year.

^ exactly

[molecular]

Government of Germany declares capital gains from bitcoins tax-free if bitcoins were held for more than a year.

According to German news site Die Welt, financial expert Frank Schaeffler stated: “It is good that investment in bitcoins is finally [a] legal certainty. Private profits from the sale of bitcoins are tax-free after one year”.

http://www.coindesk.com/german-government-relieves-capital-gains-tax-on-bitcoin-positions/

Wishful thinking on the gov't's part, that anyone would declare such sales in under a year . . .

Making false statements that involve Bitcoin is rather tricky due to the public ledger. It won't be long before your Revenue Agency learns this, and from that point on your strategy will depend on luck, unless you exchange for cash or spend coins directly.  Even then you need to count on your trading partner not reporting the transaction.

There is one sticking point, though: bitcoins are fungible. Thus, you could always claim to have sold at least some of the "old" coins, as long as you've been trading for over a year.

this has been discussed at length in the german forums. It seems we have to do fifo accounting (first in first out). You always sell the oldest coins. You can't choose which coins you sell when you make a sell on some exchange. You always sell the coins you bought earliest (and calculate your gain from the price difference), even if the coins are in a paper wallet. This is a huge probelm for daytraders who have trading volume per year greater than their overall holdings. In other words: it seems you can't put some of the bitcoins into a safe and trade with the rest on an exchange, then later (after 1 year in the safe) sell those bitcoins from the safe with no tax.

[niko]

Government of Germany declares capital gains from bitcoins tax-free if bitcoins were held for more than a year.

According to German news site Die Welt, financial expert Frank Schaeffler stated: “It is good that investment in bitcoins is finally [a] legal certainty. Private profits from the sale of bitcoins are tax-free after one year”.

http://www.coindesk.com/german-government-relieves-capital-gains-tax-on-bitcoin-positions/

Wishful thinking on the gov't's part, that anyone would declare such sales in under a year . . .

Making false statements that involve Bitcoin is rather tricky due to the public ledger. It won't be long before your Revenue Agency learns this, and from that point on your strategy will depend on luck, unless you exchange for cash or spend coins directly.  Even then you need to count on your trading partner not reporting the transaction.

There is one sticking point, though: bitcoins are fungible. Thus, you could always claim to have sold at least some of the "old" coins, as long as you've been trading for over a year.

this has been discussed at length in the german forums. It seems we have to do fifo accounting (first in first out). You always sell the oldest coins. You can't choose which coins you sell when you make a sell on some exchange. You always sell the coins you bought earliest (and calculate your gain from the price difference), even if the coins are in a paper wallet. This is a huge probelm for daytraders who have trading volume per year greater than their overall holdings. In other words: it seems you can't put some of the bitcoins into a safe and trade with the rest on an exchange, then later (after 1 year in the safe) sell those bitcoins from the safe with no tax.

Thank you for mentioning this.

[Peter Lambert]

Government of Germany declares capital gains from bitcoins tax-free if bitcoins were held for more than a year.

According to German news site Die Welt, financial expert Frank Schaeffler stated: “It is good that investment in bitcoins is finally [a] legal certainty. Private profits from the sale of bitcoins are tax-free after one year”.

http://www.coindesk.com/german-government-relieves-capital-gains-tax-on-bitcoin-positions/

Wishful thinking on the gov't's part, that anyone would declare such sales in under a year . . .

Making false statements that involve Bitcoin is rather tricky due to the public ledger. It won't be long before your Revenue Agency learns this, and from that point on your strategy will depend on luck, unless you exchange for cash or spend coins directly.  Even then you need to count on your trading partner not reporting the transaction.

There is one sticking point, though: bitcoins are fungible. Thus, you could always claim to have sold at least some of the "old" coins, as long as you've been trading for over a year.

But if you buy and sell on an exchange, then those coins are not in the public ledger, they are just on the internal database of the exchange. And if you do some bitcoin mixing between exchanges, then it could be rather tricky for the government to pin down what you did and whether it is different than you claim.