It looks like the Bitcoin's value is about to see a major retrace

[theabsinthehare]

Looking at Mt. Gox's megachart just now, I saw that price is currently stagnant at just below the thirty dollar mark. Price slows down, it happens all the time, right? Well, the more important factor is the volume of trades occurring. If you look at trade volume on the chart you'll notice it's very low, which means the buyers stopped buying until the price moves over 30 dollars (round numbers tend to cause this type of resistance). The problem is with nobody buying, the value won't go over 30 since the rise in value was caused by speculators buying into the currency. Also, if the price sits too long right below a point of resistance, those speculators will take it as a signal to sell, effectively pulling the value down. If you were waiting to sell enough bitcoins to recoup your startup costs for gear, now would be the time to do it.

[theabsinthehare]

Rereading, that seemed a bit bleak. I don't mean to infer that the sky is falling and the value is going to drop to nothing, simply that a pretty significant retracement in value is about to occur.

[Malte]

Why would the buyers want to wait before the price goes OVER 30 USD? Is it because they want to see a positive trend before they act?

[theabsinthehare]

Right, speculators are either going to buy (or hold on to their) coins if the price breaks through and holds above 30 because that means price is going to use the old point of resistance ($30) as a point of support and climb to the next level of resistance, which will presumably be $35 or $40. Then that cycle repeats until the price bounces off a point of resistance and retraces in a downward direction.

[Grant]

There is a great chance, and perhaps even need for a little correction. The cycle will eventually repeat only question is if 30 really is such a good entry or a better shortterm exit point.

[piuk]

Yes I think your right, retrace to $22-25. The volume of new bitcoin articles has dropped on google news. Even though there will be a delay of some buyers getting money across, less news = less demand = price correction.

[hugolp]

I hope you are right and bitcoins goes down in price.

[dserrano5]

The price could go as low as $12-$13 without losing it's mid-term bullish trend. This is a 3 month chart:

[Jack of Diamonds]

The price could go as low as $12-$13 without losing it's mid-term bullish trend. This is a 3 month chart:

It wont. Compared to the current difficulty level the relative demand is too high for such a low price.

$24-$27 for 567,000 difficulty ($30 is overvalue atm), $30-$35+ stable at next diff. level.

[Grant]

It wont. Compared to the current difficulty level the relative demand is too high for such a low price.

$24-$27 for 567,000 difficulty ($30 is overvalue atm), $30-$35+ stable at next diff. level.

Difficulty has little to do with the price people willing to pay, it has only to do with the price miners are willing to sell their new printed money, and well if the price doesnt appreciate to satisfy miners we'll just have a period of less miners, less money, higher upward potential before things return to "normal".
With that being said i think there's a different reason to claim "it wont", over 50% of mtgox total volume (in currency) came only last couple of days, in other words the BIG holders now seem to have a average intro price of at least 20$, i doubt they'd just lose 50%, especially when it seems these purchases are done by only a few individuals, they likely would buy it all the way down.

[padrino]

If you watch the trades on MtGox you can watch a couple of bots consistently play, there is a measurable level of influence they provided as people bought into the market.

[LudwigDG]

I personally believe that the price is a bit high and like you said all the speculators are already in with their money. We need to get more drug users to come and use bitcoin.

Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.

I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.

[epi 1:10,000]

I personally believe that the price is a bit high and like you said all the speculators are already in with their money. We need to get more drug users to come and use bitcoin.

Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.

I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.

I certainly hope not.

[istar]

I personally believe that the price is a bit high and like you said all the speculators are already in with their money. We need to get more drug users to come and use bitcoin.

Not that I am one, but I just know that it gets used a lot for this.

I see the Bitcoin with a stable price of 22$-25$ for now.

Not so sure. This can change quick with a couple of articles in one or more countries.

[billyjoeallen]

a major retrace is just another buying opportunity. I wanted to buy significantly more, but got priced out of the market. When/if the price drops, I'll buy more.

I admit I don't understand chartist tea-leaf readers. If the fundamentals are good, the market will eventually catch up. 

Is there another technology that fills the market niche of bitcoin? no.
Is a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency useful? yes.
Is there another implementation of the same technology besides Bitcoin? no. Even if their was, it's all open source, which means we could just use their code in our project which has a two year head start.

The claim that all markets, including the market for bitcoin, are irrational in predictable ways may have merit, but technical analysis clouds the objectivity of a fundamental analysis and vise versa. 

[stic.man]

not sure in other countries but in the US it takes a full week to get money into mtgox right now.  This coupled with their issues the past few days with Dwolla probably means there are funds in limbo waiting to be credited to accounts.  There may be a solid push once this is resolved but it might not happen til the weekend is over. 

[Philj]

In regards to MTgox, a lot of people are having issues getting money into and out of the exchange due to the Dwolla issues they are having. These issues are also causing many people to halt trading until the issues are resolved. This is at least one reason for the decreased volume.

[Edward50]

I agree there will be a correction in the price. I think there are many more new coins coming into the market then speculators or people who need the currency will buy. When the price stagnates for a few days people will try and take some profits.

For the people who own thousands of these coins, they were crazy if they did not sell some of their bitcoins when the price was over $30.

I think the bitcoin has potential, but the prices are just far too high with so many coins out there, and the risk of someone so easily dumping all their coins.

[unclescrooge]

Rereading, that seemed a bit bleak. I don't mean to infer that the sky is falling and the value is going to drop to nothing, simply that a pretty significant retracement in value is about to occur.

Good. It'll wash the people that are in for quick bubble money, and hopefully stabilize the price, which will allow the bitcoin economy  to developp.

[haydent]

and the risk of someone so easily dumping all their coins.

AFAIK someone can only dump as much bitcoins on the market as there are people willing to buy them.  add to that id bet the people with the most coin paid the least and therefore have the least 'tied up' and are more OG, willing to just hold them longer just coz they can.