Spekulatius (OP)
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February 20, 2013, 11:42:01 PM |
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herzmeister
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February 20, 2013, 11:48:08 PM |
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adamstgBit
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February 20, 2013, 11:49:17 PM |
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singles pfff no way in hell, or... well... oh shit maybe! ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif)
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dakiller
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February 21, 2013, 12:02:23 AM |
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Not naturally, a big hack of some sort will do it though
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Qoheleth
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February 21, 2013, 12:13:58 AM Last edit: February 21, 2013, 01:01:48 AM by Qoheleth |
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The last time we were under $10/BTC was October 26-27th. Charts indicate that we only went there because someone dumped 200KBTC - two million dollars in fiat terms - and although the market took a while to fully recover, it bounced back above $10/BTC almost immediately.
The last time we were under $10/BTC for any extended period of time was August. Since then, we've had months of activity around $13, ending with a huge rally to our current price point.
Given those months of semi-stability, it seems to me that it'd take a proper bubble-burst or some incredibly unfavorable news to take us back below $13 in the short to mid term. The latter is totally unpredictable and I can't speculate on it. The former would take us below the "natural" price, but I think heavy buy pressure would start to come online before we cross $10.
Edit: I've thought this over and realized I missed an important point: if someone dumped 200KBTC in October, there's nothing stopping them from doing it again. And the current bid depth isn't enough to keep the price above $10 if they did it all at once.
So there's more risk than I thought there was when I made this post.
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If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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marhjan
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February 21, 2013, 12:35:14 AM |
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80% yes... and I'll be shocked if we don't see $15 at least within the next few months. Have to love the perma-bull mentality of this forum though ;-)
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Donations happily accepted @ 15qxNsc7pBiz5kXpAJykw4etzMbZitm2mk
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TraderTimm
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February 21, 2013, 12:37:30 AM |
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At current rates and the state of the order book on Mt. Gox, it would take ~170,000 BTC to take us down under $10.00 - anyone doing this would net an average price of ~$19.61, which would be a total value of $3,333,700.
Why anyone would want to cash out 3.3 Million is an exercise left up to the reader, but I'd classify this as being pretty remote.
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fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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Qoheleth
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February 21, 2013, 12:42:22 AM |
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At current rates and the state of the order book on Mt. Gox, it would take ~170,000 BTC to take us down under $10.00 - anyone doing this would net an average price of ~$19.61, which would be a total value of $3,333,700.
Why anyone would want to cash out 3.3 Million is an exercise left up to the reader, but I'd classify this as being pretty remote.
Someone cashed out a similar number of Bitcoins less than six months ago (incidentally, that's the last time we dipped under $10). No reason to think it can't happen again.
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If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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Tirapon
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February 21, 2013, 12:50:48 AM |
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Sorry to be a pedant but half of these answers are pointless...
90% we will = 10% we will not, etc.
I'm 50/50.
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knight22
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February 21, 2013, 12:52:47 AM |
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IMO it is more probable that bitcoin will reach three digits rather dans 1
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TraderTimm
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February 21, 2013, 01:22:42 AM |
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At current rates and the state of the order book on Mt. Gox, it would take ~170,000 BTC to take us down under $10.00 - anyone doing this would net an average price of ~$19.61, which would be a total value of $3,333,700.
Why anyone would want to cash out 3.3 Million is an exercise left up to the reader, but I'd classify this as being pretty remote.
Someone cashed out a similar number of Bitcoins less than six months ago (incidentally, that's the last time we dipped under $10). No reason to think it can't happen again. I understand. That is why I said it was improbable, not impossible.
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fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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nimda
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February 21, 2013, 01:56:19 AM |
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Sorry to be a pedant but half of these answers are pointless...
90% we will = 10% we will not, etc.
Sorry to be a pedant but I think it was intended on a more granular scale: 10% we will means it is more probable that we will, not that there is little chance that we will.
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evolve
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February 21, 2013, 07:29:40 AM |
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90% sure we will.
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ciphermonk
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February 21, 2013, 08:08:42 AM |
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Very unlikely. There's only 10M Bitcoins out there and they are getting scarcer by the day. More and more businesses and users are joining the ecosystem. Even a modest drop to 25 or perhaps 20 will trigger buying pressure by many investors. I think the Bitcoin economy has outgrown single digit prices and we're not going back there unless the fundamentals of the system itself are shattered.
Disruptive technologies like Bitcoin tend to have exponential user adoption rates which would translate in a proportional increase in price. You can't have an exponential user adoption rate and expect the price to be stable. That just doesn't add up. I believe we are at the very start of the adoption curve, which will take a few years ( perhaps between 5 and 10 years ) to reach the whole population.
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SlaveInDebt
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February 21, 2013, 09:10:36 AM |
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10% Gox
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"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain
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KTE
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February 21, 2013, 09:54:42 AM |
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Sorry to be a pedant but I think it was intended on a more granular scale:
10% we will means it is more probable that we will, not that there is little chance that we will.
Now that's what I call out of the box thinking. The box being logic. If there's a 10% chance of it happening, what do the 90% stand for if it's not for not happening?
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piramida
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February 21, 2013, 09:57:38 AM |
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Edit: I've thought this over and realized I missed an important point: if someone dumped 200KBTC in October, there's nothing stopping them from doing it again.
Yes there is - they already dumped ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) PS voted 100% we won't, because we won't, not this year.
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i am satoshi
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mr chong
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February 21, 2013, 01:19:05 PM |
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According to the International Bitcoin Federation the chances of seeing single digits in the next 8-12 months is only 7.9345 percent.
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Spekulatius (OP)
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February 21, 2013, 01:57:41 PM |
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Wow, thanks for your manifold participation! I know because there is 1 vote per user only by default. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi47.tinypic.com%2F1z69tza.png&t=665&c=zZo4IvWC7FpBZw) As of now 56.1% of you are 80-100% certain we will NOT see single digits again this year! Thats the most lowest end of the scale. The year still has 313 days to come. Pls help creating the follow up poll here: "Where are we in the Emotion Cycle?"
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Bemtje
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February 21, 2013, 02:33:26 PM |
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Wow, lots of confident Responses.
If someone asked "would we see $30 in february" two months ago, I wonder how the poll would look.
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