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Question: How certain are you?
100% we will
90% we will
80% we will
70% we will
60% we will
50% we will
40% we will
30% we will
20% we will
10% we will
?Dont know?
10% we will not
20% we will not
30% we will not
40% we will not
50% we will not
60% we will not
70% we will not
80% we will not
90% we will not
100% we will not

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Author Topic: [Poll] Will we see single digits again this year?  (Read 1630 times)
Korbman
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February 21, 2013, 02:43:42 PM
 #21

At current rates and the state of the order book on Mt. Gox, it would take ~170,000 BTC to take us down under $10.00 - anyone doing this would net an average price of ~$19.61, which would be a total value of $3,333,700.

Why anyone would want to cash out 3.3 Million is an exercise left up to the reader, but I'd classify this as being pretty remote.

Why dump it all at once? If they sold 1,000 bitcoins a day at $25 they'd pull in $4.25 million...which from my perspective is quite a bit better than a measly $3.33 million Cheesy  (a lot is being assumed in this situation, but still...)

Maybe they're willing to sacrifice a million because they don't want to wait an extra 169 days? ..meh, who knows..

molecular
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February 21, 2013, 02:49:02 PM
 #22

isn't "x% we will" == "1-x% we will not" ?

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Piper67
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February 21, 2013, 02:49:38 PM
 #23

isn't "x% we will" == "1-x% we will not" ?


Yes, it is, so in fact you can take the top half or the bottom half and double the results  Grin
nimda
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February 22, 2013, 02:18:56 AM
 #24

Sorry to be a pedant but I think it was intended on a more granular scale:

10% we will means it is more probable that we will, not that there is little chance that we will.

Now that's what I call out of the box thinking. The box being logic.

Oh boy, that's good. Mind if I use that sometime? Grin


Quote
If there's a 10% chance of it happening, what do the 90% stand for if it's not for not happening?
To put what I said earlier a different way, I think the poll is structured such that a vote of "10% we will" means there's a 55% chance.

Obviously not the clearest of polls, but oh well.
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