Newest Update From BFL on Chips

[kano]

You are fretting about something that is not worth while. Grnbrg said pretty much exactly what you told him in your IRC log from the looks of it.

I invite people to go look and compare it for themselves. You'll see the dig from the samurai wanna-be is nonesense.

So what your sword toting dig is bitching about is none of my business. Go message the grievances in my PM box. I cannot guarantee I'll read it though.

Well as usual you don't quote directly then claim it as truth

By the way genius, it's IRC, you are either there to witness it in the moment or you aren't.

Yes you weren't there to witness it ...

[PuertoLibre]

Yes you weren't there to witness it ...

Gotcha?

Anyway, I'll stop replying. Better things to do.

edit: for those that do not know

Code:

[11:56 AM]   ASIC-J : grnbrg is very good at updating. He is usually around on shoutbox and knows what is going on.

[dresdenreader]

Code:

[09:47 AM]   Hiver : or if he decided to do it at all.
[09:48 AM]   CohibaJr : I doubt he's sitting in the bumping facility.
[09:49 AM]   polrpaul : doubt it
[09:49 AM]   polrpaul : he would have announced a trip
[09:50 AM]   CohibaJr : He should be visiting the bumping facility, but who knows
[09:51 AM]   polrpaul : moreover, I don't believe BFL has any contact with the bumper at all
[09:51 AM]   CohibaJr : which is sad
[09:51 AM]   polrpaul : here's why: they contracted the project via the packager, who sub'ed it to their bumping house
[09:51 AM]   polrpaul : when BFL wanted to go North Carolina, it was for a good reason: direct contact with the bumper
[09:52 AM]   Hiver : Ah.
[09:52 AM]   polrpaul : but then they weren't able to meet deadlines, and the packaging house said: "we can do it"
[09:52 AM]   polrpaul : the hell they can
[09:52 AM]   CohibaJr : they aren't on top of their game, they need to be constantly in contact will all processors of the device.
[09:52 AM]   polrpaul : but if they have no contact at the bumper = shit out of luck
[09:52 AM]   polrpaul : nobody to call except their contact at the packager
[09:52 AM]   CohibaJr : yup
[09:53 AM]   polrpaul : packager says: "we're still waiting to hear from bumper"
[09:53 AM]   polrpaul : circle jerk
[09:53 AM]   CohibaJr : yeah, exactly
[09:53 AM]   CohibaJr : i don't think that BFL is at the top of their game
[09:53 AM]   polrpaul : lastly, without an update from Josh yesterday or today thus far... we are sitting losers
[09:53 AM]   Hiver : I subcontracted some work once. It was the worst decision I've ever made as a professional.
[09:54 AM]   polrpaul : well you have to remember that any work BFL doesn't do: is subcontracted - that's just about all of it
*   polrpaul  has reached 2250 shouts!* [09:54 AM]
[09:54 AM]   CohibaJr : exactly, subcontracting without being in contact with the sub is a losing situation.
[09:54 AM]   polrpaul : the issue comes when their contractor subcontracts their work
[09:54 AM]   shuadoom : Subcontracting is fine as long as you are in constant contact or at least have a line of communication
[09:54 AM]   polrpaul : +1 CohibaJr
[09:54 AM]   Hiver : So, if I'm getting this right, BFL are taking the packaging people at their word
[09:54 AM]   polrpaul : +1 shuadoom
[09:55 AM]   CohibaJr : sure seems like it, hiver
[09:55 AM]   shuadoom : Pol: That should have been part of the arrangement with anyone they deal with though, approval, oversight, and communication with everything regarding subcontracts.
[09:55 AM]   polrpaul : and yet... ?
[09:55 AM]   polrpaul : here we are holding our dicks, gentlemen
[09:55 AM]   CohibaJr : I don't think that Josh likes to oversight.
[09:55 AM]   shuadoom : specification, delivery wise...monetaryily is another thing...
[09:55 AM]   CohibaJr : That's the feeling I get.
[09:55 AM]   shuadoom : monetarily...
[09:55 AM]   Fjordbit : I was at least hoping to hear the test fascility got their chip
[09:56 AM]   Hiver : The person I farmed the work out too fell off the planet as soon as the good faith payment cleared. Made me look bad, made my customer angry... it was a nightmare. I ended up busting my balls to make the customer happy and took a loss on the job.
[09:56 AM]   polrpaul : YEAH
[09:56 AM]   shuadoom : Well, all the more reason to get a kicstarter together and some hardware guys and diy
[09:56 AM]   Fjordbit : Right now, that should be everyone's biggest concern.
[09:56 AM]   Hiver : Someone FOSSing an ASIC chip?
[09:56 AM]   polrpaul : shuadoom - with u !
[09:57 AM]   polrpaul : I thought the whole Avalon project was open source, no?
[09:57 AM]   CohibaJr : I don't think it's a bad thing, being aggressive in Business. Right now, BFL is at the mercy of everyone, because they aren't asserting their position.
[09:57 AM]   shuadoom : Business is business, no room for "well ill let the sub deal with the sub"...You need full control in order for your product and your standards to be met...
[09:57 AM]   polrpaul : I see they released the Software side of things into github
[09:58 AM]   polrpaul : my biggest beef: the transparency provided, or lack thereof
[09:58 AM]   shuadoom : Cohiba: Exactly.

[09:58 AM]   polrpaul : it's one thing to pre-order, be told a date, and then receive your item around that expected date
[09:59 AM]   polrpaul : it's a complete different story when they miss the dates, keep stringing you along, and then try to feed you transparency "chips are being bumped right now!"
[09:59 AM]   polrpaul : when the lack of transparency ends.. the scam is revealed
[10:01 AM]   polrpaul : i'd rather not get any transparency at all, just keep shifting the damn date in realistic terms (not by 1 week or even 1 month, but by 6 months)
[10:01 AM]   CohibaJr : BFL looks really weak right now due to missed dates, delays, and not asserting their position. If BFL is a student in a college course, it deserves a BIG F-.
[10:01 AM]   polrpaul : AND, offer your customers a real incentive to stay onboard
[10:01 AM]   polrpaul : the discounts were a joke
[10:01 AM]   polrpaul : I should be able to order more at a discount now
[10:01 AM]   polrpaul : I should be able to order more at a discount now
[10:02 AM]   polrpaul : and that's the other thing CohibaJr, I'm finding it hard to believe anyone at BFL has a college degree
[10:02 AM]   polrpaul : not even going to get into the cast of characters and their previous history
[10:03 AM]   polrpaul : anyone want to start a company? I don't feel at all intimidated by BFL's prowess from a competitive standpoint
[10:03 AM]   CohibaJr : polrpaul, hahaha, you're thinking kind of what i'm thinking, but i just didn't want to say anything.
[10:04 AM]   polrpaul : I mean: how can they order 6 wafers of chips, with 6 more wafers already started too, when there is not even 1 working prototype
[10:04 AM]   polrpaul : (serious TOO)
[10:04 AM]   polrpaul : I don't want to be shady or rape anyone of fair earnings
[10:05 AM]   polrpaul : I don't want to take millions in pre-orders, but ... sure that would be nice too
[10:05 AM]   SLok : yeah, you can run a mining pool and fly planes with just highschool, same for the guy doing asic design and writing firmware, not, polrpaul?
[10:05 AM]   Fjordbit : polrpaul, how would they have a working prototype without chips?
[10:05 AM]   polrpaul : a kickstarter type fund is the appropriate path
[10:05 AM]   polrpaul : correct SLok
[10:05 AM]   shuadoom : Pol: Fair earnings? Intillectual Property is BS...
[10:05 AM]   SLok : think again clown
[10:05 AM]   polrpaul : shuadoom, don't understand
[10:06 AM]   shuadoom : If you can figure out how something works, you should be able to make it and sell it..
[10:06 AM]   shuadoom : Intellactual property = monopoly
[10:06 AM]   polrpaul : SLok - who the clown?
[10:06 AM]   shuadoom : so there would be nothing unfair about making a competing product and releasing it
[10:07 AM]   SLok : who do you think
[10:07 AM]   polrpaul : shuadoom, my comment was - don't want to pull a bASIC scam or anything like that.. don't take money from people that you know you are raping
[10:07 AM]   shuadoom : ahhh word.
[10:07 AM]   polrpaul : SLok - proof
[10:07 AM]   shuadoom : I thought you meant like unfair to bfl...
[10:08 AM]   polrpaul : pictures or it didn't happen
[10:08 AM]   polrpaul : no, unfair to the people
[10:08 AM]   shuadoom : I say if you can bring a product to market and beat them, do it...
[10:08 AM]   polrpaul : so far.. it's all been unfair from the ASIC vendors.. except perhaps ASICMINER going live, but that's not a product
[10:08 AM]   polrpaul : if Avalon customers in China are indeed receiving and going live - congratulations to Avalon
[10:08 AM]   shuadoom : If I knew hardware better, I totally would, but I'm not an engineer..
[10:09 AM]   polrpaul : if not.. scammy
[10:09 AM]   polrpaul : don't need to be an engineer shuadoom - running a company requires different skillsets
[10:09 AM]   polrpaul : and if you ask me, a COO should be all about business
[10:09 AM]   polrpaul : Josh acts more like a CTO, IMHO
[10:10 AM]   CohibaJr : Avalon is so far the only company that has delivered something like they said they would, and even exceeded expectations(dates).
[10:10 AM]   CohibaJr : CTO?
[10:10 AM]   polrpaul : especially given his side hobbies of running EMC pool, now the ASIC Hosting program, running BFL Ad campaigns potentially for personal profit
[10:10 AM]   CohibaJr : Chief Technical Officer?
[10:10 AM]   shuadoom : Oh I know, but I don't know enough about hardware to know that folks are being truthful about it to put myself in such a position.
[10:10 AM]   shuadoom : technology
[10:11 AM]   polrpaul : you hire trusted elves to oversee the pieces you don't understand
[10:11 AM]   SLok : how comfortable, a customer in China received his asic, none besides 2 in the rest of the world, and they all can't work longer than 36 hours before they need a restart.
[10:11 AM]   shuadoom : Chief Turd Orifice
[10:11 AM]   shuadoom : Cheif too
[10:11 AM]   shuadoom : wait no..chief
[10:11 AM]   shuadoom : yeah..
[10:11 AM]   SLok : and an engeneering degree fr the operator
[10:11 AM]   CohibaJr : Yeah, Josh isn't a COO for sure. he's more of an engineer. COO will be VERY AGGRESSIVE, and fly out to the situs to examine all the processes, and constantly talk to the people every day.
[10:11 AM]   polrpaul : yeah, reality of avalon product existing en masse, and its quality both remain to be determiend
[10:12 AM]   shuadoom : No need to be a d1ck as a coo, but letting them know, if you don't do the job the way I want, you don't get the job is absolutely necessary
[10:13 AM]   polrpaul : absolutely
[10:13 AM]   CohibaJr : for sure, shua
[10:14 AM]   CohibaJr : Don't need to be a dick as a COO, but be aggressive/proactive and be very involved in the process and schedules and deadlines.
[10:14 AM]   shuadoom : Go watch an interview with steve jobs,.he had no problems telling someone that there work was shit....and he said, its never personal, its about the product/business
[10:14 AM]   polrpaul : as long as we're shooting the shit.. skills I bring to the table in the C-suite: Technology (CTO) and Security (CSO/CISO)
[10:14 AM]   polrpaul : I am not a sales/marketing/advertising person, and I am not an aggressive leader as a CEO and COO should be
[10:14 AM]   polrpaul : I know nothing of finance as a CFO should master
[10:14 AM]   CohibaJr : Sitting back at the headquarters as a COO doesn't look very professional, especially while there are MASSIVE DELAYS happening in the process.
[10:15 AM]   polrpaul : california is the place to be right now, not snowy kansas city
[10:15 AM]   shuadoom : *coughvaporwarecough*
[10:15 AM]   polrpaul : and then off to chicago (or send somebody else) to oversee the boards
[10:16 AM]   CohibaJr : Can't be sitting around at your desk, no one is going to hand you food into your mouth. You've got to go fight and get your food, so that you can survive. That's the attitude of a COO.
[10:16 AM]   SLok : ordered something shuadoom?
[10:16 AM]   shuadoom : I have a hunch that the delays are more of a "lets get this working right" and less of a our subs are shite
[10:16 AM]   shuadoom : No, I want to, I just don't have a positive feeling about it being a legitimate purchase..
[10:17 AM]   shuadoom : And I know that I will be last in line, but If I have to end up paying more for something sooner, then that is what I will do, because I want a product that is functional and in my hands
[10:18 AM]   shuadoom : I have no legitimate gripe at this point, just trying to work it out for my best interests.
[10:18 AM]   shuadoom : as should everyone, with every transaction
[10:19 AM]   SLok : i see, my best interest was order early to get one before the masses get theirs.
*   SLok  has reached 750 shouts!* [10:19 AM]
[10:20 AM]   polrpaul : my interest was: get one in realistic time frame
[10:20 AM]   polrpaul : 6 months late is.. bordering unrealistic IMHO
*   polrpaul  has reached 2300 shouts!* [10:20 AM]
[10:20 AM]   polrpaul : and with that.. I'm off to hunt breakfast
[10:20 AM]   shuadoom : Slok: I wish I had, though probably would be very angry at this point..
*   shuadoom  has reached 50 shouts!* [10:20 AM]
[10:21 AM]   CohibaJr : April is my deadline date. If BFL can't deliver by then $22K of my money will be refunded.
[10:21 AM]   SLok : i can wait for the new iphone, if i cared for one, no need to sleep for a store to get that first, but this is a different playing field
[10:22 AM]   polrpaul : I was saying March 1... over $5K ..time to chill out and try to reassess, maybe CohibaJr has some better sense
[10:22 AM]   SLok : way to late, agreed polrpaul, but this is cutting edge tech, so i'll hang on
[10:22 AM]   polrpaul : that critical edge is slipping
[10:22 AM]   SLok : what else to do?
[10:23 AM]   CohibaJr : I don't know what else to do or say except that a 22year old chinese kid(Avalon), beat out a giant(BFL) to the punch, even though it's not efficient.
[10:24 AM]   CohibaJr : Single-handedly.
[10:24 AM]   SLok : not the edge, people's expectations of profits, while an asic today gets the same redicted profit as back in september in $, chack the mining calculators
[10:24 AM]   shuadoom : Because to me, every purchase is a free exchange between individuals, value for value, and when the value is not met by one side or the other, there is cause for anger/grievance etc, because it is not value for value at that point;.
[10:24 AM]   SLok : that's a whole team avalon, not some kid. dr ngzang etc
[10:25 AM]   CohibaJr : I know it's a whole team Avalon, but the 22 year old kid represents the whole team.
[10:25 AM]   polrpaul : you can say Josh represents BFL in the same way, how old is he?
[10:27 AM]   KrLos : hallo, btc down to 26
[10:28 AM]   CohibaJr : early 30s?
[10:28 AM]   CohibaJr : mid 30s?
[10:29 AM]   KrLos : mt gox Last price:$28.10000

Problems with contractors doing sub-contracting?

Is that the reason for the delays?

Posted under the FAIR USE ACT for the purposes of discussion and education.

Edit: BTC price may now be in a devaluation trend. Bad news for all!

I'm not sure exactly what the point of posting that was.

I think we can all understand that customers with BFL are unhappy right now and that Josh has been really bad with dates through out the whole project.

However, posting a conversation about people speculating on all of the information, isn't that just more speculation?

Also, their whole conversation about making a kickstarter for an ASIC product. I think the old phrase, "put up or shut up" fits rather well in the situation.

Josh is a very easy target in all of this for a number of reasons:
 - He is the only one giving updates.
 - The dates he is giving are estimates and should be treated as such. At this point I wouldn't take any of his estimates at face value, I think people probably know that by now.
- You're basically dealing with a company that is doing this for the first time (at least on this scale), didn't do enough research into time frames for specific processes involving the chip manufacturing process, and Josh has to take the blame for all of that.
- The problems occurring aren't caused by Josh, but he's the bad guy, so it's easy to make fun of him. My best analogy for Josh right now would be someone like Jay Wilson. Jay Wilson didn't code, design, direct, produce and publish D3 all by himself, but he is the one that gets all of the blame for people thinking it's a subpar product.

All in all I think that if someone wants to get off their ass and start a kickstarter project for an ASIC product, they should do it. I think it's easy to criticize someone and say, "If I were in charge, this is how I would do it!" But it's a different thing all together to say, "I'm going to fully research this, find out where other companies like BFL, Avalon and bASIC have failed, make a business plan, and do a better job than any other ASIC manufacturer out there."

I'm certainly not defending Josh. I think that his estimations are irresponsible and upset his customers. I think that he is dealing with companies that typically have a 3-4 month timeframe on projects and not a 1-2 week timeframe on projects like this. I think that BFL as a whole did not do enough research into every single process of manufacturing, in regards to timeframes.

I'm not trolling here, and I would like an honest answer. You seem like a fairly intelligent person and you know how to frame intelligent arguments, but I'm not sure why you're keeping up the constant crusade against Josh and BFL.

Is there a specific reason?

[RHA]

Dresdenreader, don't quote him. His Ignore button is orange. The quoting spoils the purpose of the button for others.

[PuertoLibre]

I'm certainly not defending Josh.

Respectfully, unlike many BFL customers, you don't seem to be particularly offended by the multiple month wait. BFL customers are starting to resign themselves to a march shipping date as we speak. (on the BFL forums)

I think that his estimations are irresponsible and upset his customers. I think that he is dealing with companies that typically have a 3-4 month timeframe on projects and not a 1-2 week timeframe on projects like this. I think that BFL as a whole did not do enough research into every single process of manufacturing, in regards to timeframes.

I believe that is a false sentiment.

I believe (and actually hope) they actually did do due diligence before taking on vast sums of cash.

Though, lets take your premise and assume they didn't. This [if your hypothesis is correct] just goes to show how they aren't doing their part to keep the project going well.

One of the points that Josh used to bash the Avalon team on was the fact that they didn't have [supposedly] the amount of collective experience that the BFL engineering team had.

Yet you see them struggling with things that they shouldn't be struggling in. They don't appear to be well informed in my opinion.

Team Avalon started the wafers contract on 11/26/2012 and by January 14th 2013 had already finalized shipping preparations. They were on the ball and got things rolling.

Of course, this is a somewhat unfair comparison because they were using less layers [29] in their 110nm process node. So they had to wait less to achieve a result.

BFL uses a 65nm process (which requires more time...assuming they have more layers...that is) but seems to fumble at each stage. Even after the fab, they continue to fumble through each step.

The only eventuality the Avalon Team did not properly investigate was customs. Add to this the fact that CNY was around the corner and unfortunately "Shit Happens".

Despite this month of delay...BFL is still fumbling to this day, even unto March 2013.

As other have said in the shoutbox, what does this mean for the second wafer set coming down the pike? Will that also be delayed by 1 to 2 weeks as the first was?

I'm not trolling here, and I would like an honest answer. You seem like a fairly intelligent person and you know how to frame intelligent arguments, but I'm not sure why you're keeping up the constant crusade against Josh and BFL.

Is there a specific reason?

Yes, Josh likes to post trash talk against the Avalon Team.

Example:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/923-avalon-unit-delivered-bfl-hq.html



---------------

At the very least, I post actual things of interest. Most of what happens in the shoutbox never gets written into the "official" updates posts. That includes various specific details. Unfortunately, I don't have a log of that to prove it.

I understand if you skimmed the latest shoutbox log and do not notice the references being made to prior conversations within the shoutbox.

You have to get on at specific times to see the various back and forth. If not, you'll miss it and you won't get it through the regular updates.

-------------------------

Needless to say, what the majority end up reading is not necessarily all the fine details of the situation. To find out what is happening you should log in to the shoutbox and keep abreast of the situation.

The official updates are just a nice "summary" with certain key details left out. It makes the rep rage in anger when one does that.

------------------------

In either case, I do not see what any BFL customer would be offended by if you post details in front of them. Perhaps people don't want to know more about these situations?

Edit: By the way, the hardcore supporters are now often tongue lashing BFL in the shoutbox quite openly. I wonder what it was that they saw that made them feel that way. Their disenfranchised sentiment is now often leaking into the open BFL forum.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

At the very least, I post actual things of interest. Most of what happens in the shoutbox never gets written into the "official" updates posts. That includes various specific details. Unfortunately, I don't have a log of that to prove it.

I understand if you skimmed the latest shoutbox log and do not notice the references being made to prior conversations within the shoutbox.

You have to get on at specific times to see the various back and forth. If not, you'll miss it and you won't get it through the regular updates.

Have you tried the archive button?

[Bicknellski]

The thing that amazes me the most is the nature of his language. He seems to over-promise at every single opportunity. Take his Feb 21st update for example: "We should hopefully have more information on that later tonight or tomorrow". And yet (2 days later), there is no follow up post. Could he not simply say "We will update you as soon as we have more information?". There is no reason to volunteer a micro deadline like that.. It's a common pattern through every single one of his updates.

+1 You need to school him on expectation management.

[Micon]

The thing that amazes me the most is the nature of his language. He seems to over-promise at every single opportunity. Take his Feb 21st update for example: "We should hopefully have more information on that later tonight or tomorrow". And yet (2 days later), there is no follow up post. Could he not simply say "We will update you as soon as we have more information?". There is no reason to volunteer a micro deadline like that.. It's a common pattern through every single one of his updates.

+1 You need to school him on expectation management.

at this stage Josh Zerlan's function is to explicitly mismanage expectations of his customers and possible future customers. 

Take his latest post for example:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/690-13-jan-2013-asic-update-discussion-thread-55.html#post15632

Buddy3315,

You have a fundamental flaw in your statement. It's based entirely around the fact that we somehow knew about the delays before hand and have been lying to people all along. I just can't take people seriously when they start off with that premise, because it is patently false. In the beginning I gave vague dates because we did not have hard dates. Everyone cries for transparency so I give hard dates and we miss them. Do you think I just pull these dates out of thin air? No, I get these dates from the people who are doing the work. I know some of them, sometimes, are not going to meet their dates, but when I give you vague dates you get angry because it's not a specific date. That's the problem. You want specific dates but there are not specific dates to be had. Again, we go back to the fact that if you think you can do better, why are you on this forum, buying these products? You should be making your own and showing the world how it's done.

That said, Buddy3315, I think it may be time for you to get a refund. You are unhappy and it's quite understandable and if I were in your position and your viewpoint, I would be seeking a refund. We will happily give you a refund (and a refund to anyone else who is tired of waiting or believes that we are somehow lying to people to string them along.) I have given you the best dates I can and they have been missed, we apologize for that deeply. I also understand that it's very easy to say "Well, you should do this or you should have done that." but the fact of the matter is that it's NOT that easy. The world simply doesn't work like that, no matter how much you might want to believe it does. I point to the simple fact that every ASIC manufacturer for Bitcoin has been delayed (or destroyed). If it were as simple as people claim, you'd think at least one of them would have delivered on time and on spec, but not a single vendor has delivered on time or on spec. Why do you think that is? Because they are all lying or because it's a difficult project and unexpected events happen? Occams razor would tend to dictate the latter, since it's unlikely every ASIC vendor is lying. Couple that with the fact that the first vendor to ship a working product in volume stands to make a hell of a lot of money, so intentionally delaying or lying or what have you is nothing but detrimental to the process.

seems like he knows they will continue to miss dates, even though he is the one posting dates.  "vague dates?"  IMO fire the person or company that told you Nov 2012 would be shipping.

[michaelmclees]

That has been what I have been saying for months.  They'll set some deadline for a date and when they date finally comes, they then announce that there was a delay at some point, even though they surely must have known that the delay would be coming for days or weeks before their announcement.  I expressed it thusly on November 27th ...

"This is exactly why I had to cancel one of my orders. If BFL were an employee calling in late to work, it would be like this.

Work starts at 9:00. Travel time is 30 minutes assuming no traffic. There is some level of traffic 90% of the time. BFL plans to leave at 8:25.

"Announcement - I hope to be at work at 9:00 tomorrow ... assuming nothing goes wrong. I even have a buffer in case there is traffic."

Time is 8:45 and BFL just leaves the house for work.

"Announcement - Everything still hunky dory. Not late to work yet and I'm driving really fast."

Time is 8:55 and BFL hits traffic. BFL reroutes.

"Announcement - I might not be into work at time, but I hope I'll make it."

Time is 9:15 and BFL is now sitting in worse traffic on the new route.

"Announcement - Looks like I'm going to be late for work... probably.   Don't worry though, someone else will probably be late as well so no worries. Oh, by the way, when I come in, you'll get the best darned employee you've ever seen. I'm the reliable Ferrari of employees!"

Time is 9:30 and boss is calling BFL's cell, upset that he's late. BFL doesn't directly answer his questions and seems evasive. Boss asks what time BFL left the house - no answer. Boss asks how often there is traffic - no answer. Boss asks what kind of coffee BFL had that morning - Folgers, 3 sugars, no milk.

"Announcement - I hope to be in at 10:00. I never 'promised' 9:00. I just hoped to be in at 9:00, just like I 'hope' to be in at 10:00. Why so upset?"

Time is 9:59 and the entire factory is furiously waiting on BFL to come because he has one of 3 keys to the lock that shuts everyone else out altogether. He's costing them money because had he simply been more honest about his situation from the get go, when he left his house in the first place, the boss would have called in Thomas or Evelan, because they also have keys, but today was their day off.

"Announcement - Making this announcement with 1 minutes to spare! That's right... Time to spare on this one. No new details other than the fact that I've put premium gas in my car and I'll probably, maybe, hopefully, be in around, nearby, or close to mid, late, probably end of the 10 o'clock hour. My contract says you can't fire me until 11:00 anyway ... so really ... I'm still not even late."

And... scene.

Josh and everyone else at Butterfly Labs ... are you starting to see things from our perspective yet?"

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a-6.html#post6356

[Frizz23]

Good one, michaelmclees!!

Time is 9:30 and boss is calling BFL's cell, upset that he's late. BFL doesn't directly answer his questions and seems evasive. ...

One more thing to add: "BFL insults boss and fellow employees (for not believing his sleazy story) calling them idiots and pathological liars. ..."

[EDIT] I've seen you originally posted this on BFL forums on 11-27-2012. 3 month ago and still so true

By the way ... Josh reply was this here:

What I always wonder is, for people like Michael here and many others... they claim it's so easy to create a brand new product. But it makes me wonder why they aren't raking in the dough, having created their superior product that is so easy to build? blah blah blah ...

Summarized: "Life is just so bloody hard. And unfair. Boo-hoo."

According to Joshs logic no company in the world would be able to finish a product in time and budget. Yet there are new hairdryers, lawnmowers, mobile phones, notebooks, etc. every day. And many of us work for such companies that achieve the impossible.

BFL simply sucks at project management.

[repentance]

The information flow at BFL is terrible.  Once is a mistake, twice is a choice.  

Josh's question about whether they've pulled dates out of thin air is an interesting one.  In a sense, they have.  Even if their estimates of how long the chips will take to package and how long it will take to assemble the boards are accurate, they're clearly not allowing for the fact that their order is going to have to be fitted in around other work being done by those facilities.  

The actual packaging may take < 24 hours, but there's no guarantee that the packaging facility will be able to start work on BFL's order the moment the chips arrive there because they're not being paid to sit around idle doing no other work while they wait for BFL's chips.  They can't really book a specific time for packaging or for board assembly because they don't know when the chips will arrive at the packaging facility or at the assembly house.

While it's annoying that customers latch onto their best case scenario estimates as though they were set in concrete, it's obvious that even their "worst case scenario" estimates bear no resemblance to reality.  They need to review why they're coming up with wrong estimates and take measures to make their estimates more accurate - because this issue isn't going to disappear once their first batch starts shipping, it's going to continue for as long as they have unfulfilled back orders.

"But it's hard" doesn't really wash as an excuse when you're still taking pre-orders for a product which has yet to be delivered.  Not having a relatively accurate delivery date wouldn't matter if people hadn't paid for this product 8 months ago.  It does matter when you're still taking pre-orders, though.

Edit.  Nasser's online in BFL shoutbox at the moment - here's your chance to ask him questions directly.

[Vagnavs]

They should be taking deposits instead of the full amounts. That would seem more to be a better way to go for both parties. But as for timelines, you can throw them out the window. They have had this and that excuse. They look to have the real deal, but it just a question of how long it will take to receive your order.
Regards,
Brian

[Cluster2k]

I placed my order in early September and after the way things have gone so far I have resigned myself to maybe receiving my order by late March.  Add another week for international mail too.

[repentance]

They should be taking deposits instead of the full amounts. That would seem more to be a better way to go for both parties. But as for timelines, you can throw them out the window. They have had this and that excuse. They look to have the real deal, but it just a question of how long it will take to receive your order.
Regards,
Brian

I think they'll deliver and their units will probably perform better than advertised specs - their customers will likely get more than they paid for in that respect.

What's not clear - and what affects the company and its investors more than its customers - is whether they'll be able to remain competitive in an environment where their first generation products are hitting the market at the same time as other vendors are working on their gen 2 products and new players are also entering the retail ASIC market. By the time they've caught up with their back orders around June, there's no guarantee that theirs will be the superior products available at a retail level.

If their projections were based on having a dominant market share for a prolonged period of time, then further delays could have a serious impact on their bottom line.  

[dresdenreader]

------------------------

In either case, I do not see what any BFL customer would be offended by if you post details in front of them. Perhaps people don't want to know more about these situations?

Edit: By the way, the hardcore supporters are now often tongue lashing BFL in the shoutbox quite openly. I wonder what it was that they saw that made them feel that way. Their disenfranchised sentiment is now often leaking into the open BFL forum.

Yeah, the reason I'm not really offended is because I ordered February 2nd, far after the people who have actual legitimate grievances with not yet receiving a product.

I actually enjoyed reading your response and I think that you have some valid points.

I most definitely agree that Josh should stop openly talking trash about Avalon. I know it's fun to make fun of your competitors but when you make fun of a competitor about something you are specifically lacking that's little more than awkward projection and nobody wants to see that.

I think one of the problems is that Josh squandered even the confidence that some of the hardcore supporters had left when he said bumping would take 2 days and it's been a little over a week. The main problem is that he's giving people best case estimates when he should be giving worst case estimates and then tacking on a week or two to those estimates. At least then if it finishes before those one to two weeks, he is under promising and over delivering, rather than over promising and under delivering. Granted, they didn't know they needed a blank wafer to make the process faster, but that makes me think they didn't do enough research on the bumping process beforehand.

All in all I think there have been a lot of missteps, but I still honestly believe they will be delivering a superior product than Avalon but the timeframe is unfortunately taking much much longer than expected.

[Syke]

I think one of the problems is that Josh squandered even the confidence that some of the hardcore supporters had left when he said bumping would take 2 days and it's been a little over a week. The main problem is that he's giving people best case estimates when he should be giving worst case estimates and then tacking on a week or two to those estimates.

No, the problem is the dates he gives are what he calls worst-case scenarios, when they really are impossibly best-case scenarios. "Honest Abe! The schedule is already padded. There's no way we'll miss the dates this time." BS

[Micon]

I placed my order in early September and after the way things have gone so far I have resigned myself to maybe receiving my order by late March.  Add another week for international mail too.

I wouldn't consider getting it in late March to be an option.  

the COO of BFL has been trolling up my betting thread, and refuses to take a wager that BFL ships 3+ ASICs that meet or beat specs before 3/20/2012

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135914.360

[dresdenreader]

I placed my order in early September and after the way things have gone so far I have resigned myself to maybe receiving my order by late March.  Add another week for international mail too.

I wouldn't consider getting it in late March to be an option.  

the COO of BFL has been trolling up my betting thread, and refuses to take a wager that BFL ships 3+ ASICs that meet or beat specs before 3/20/2012

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135914.360

To be completely honest, the bickering between you two is just annoying.