Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer..

[NewLiberty]

Sale at the silver counter.

[molecular]

Sale at the silver counter.

I don't believe the bottom is in. Don't see signs of physical shortages either... I'll wait.

[notme]

Don't forget about one of the fastest growing applications of silver yet, solar panels. Panel manufacturers are huge consumers of silver and it's very unlikely it will ever be recovered once consumed.

Gold + Silver + BTC = solid investments. Diversify.

Silver being used in solar panels is use value, not exchange value. Silver is fast loosing its moneyness.  I think the silver bugs are fooled by history in believing silver is good for smaller transactions. The main reason silver was used as money, was that some kings had access to silver mines, and no gold. Plus, they could sometimes extract value out of their population by declaring only silver as money, hoard the gold, then declare only gold to be money. Anyway the gold to silver ratio was sometimes pegged. For instance, the arabs fixed the value 6:1 for hundreds of years, profiting on the carry trade between europe and the east (while at the same time it was 12:1 in Europe). Things like this could not tick now. Silver is goners as money.

Silver as money has been gone for a long time,but  it is the second most used commodity in the world. Only Oil has more uses than Silver in the modern world. Its is daily needed right across the board.
PM have a lifespan of thousand of years, Fiats lifespan is centuries and bitcoins will be decades. You just need to look how fast the digital world moves. How much use would you have with a 486 machine in todays world? Well it was a mighty machine too.
I dare to say that Bitcoin cant even match a steam engine in terms of useful lifespan. A steam-engine was revolutionary and world changing on its day, but quickly outpaced. Today, enthusiast still operate steam engines in a hundred yeas no-one will use a bitcoin, not even enthusiasts.   

A combustion engine is not much different from a steam engine if you look at the principles (and function).

A 486 was not an invention. Invention was the transistor and integrated circuit.

Cryptocurrency will be around in 100 years, I'm sure. It might even still be bitcoin. There will hopefully be some innovation improving upon the concept along the way, but the general idea is here to stay.

Crytocurrencys will be around in a 100 years nobody is disputing that, but Bitcoin wont be used that is sure. Looking at the speed the digital world moves any software looks dated after a couple of years. 30 years or more for a software yeh, right. The first spreadsheet program was a marvelous piece of software (what was the name again?).
The general idea is still there in a modern spreadsheet, but thats about it.

You mean like grep?

It's 40 years old and used daily by millions of programmers and system administrators.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Sale at the silver counter.

I don't believe the bottom is in. Don't see signs of physical shortages either... I'll wait.

I concur! There seems to be no hurry to buy in judging by market conditions.
I've also read some analysis saying as low as $10 before the turnaround happens, and it's not the argument between smoothie and s3052
My original target was ~$19, but now that it's here, I'm not too confident this is the bottom and am reanalyzing the situation.

[600watt]

You can update software...

Exactly and Bitcoin is more like a protocol than a mere static implementation of code.

I mean we all know http is doomed and the world quickly moved on to ... er wait no we are still using http today.  Protocols tend to have a longer lifespan.  TCP is almost 30 years old.

right, bitcoin is a protocol. as tcp/ip is the basis of the internet today, bitcoin will be the basis of financial transactions in the future. tcp/ip was created in 1974. microsoft and apple tried to come up with their own protocols. both failed.

also novell and ibm?

yes, and if you take into account their market share back then it is impressive that they all failed.

[NewLiberty]

Sale at the silver counter.

I don't believe the bottom is in. Don't see signs of physical shortages either... I'll wait.

I concur! There seems to be no hurry to buy in judging by market conditions.
I've also read some analysis saying as low as $10 before the turnaround happens, and it's not the argument between smoothie and s3052
My original target was ~$19, but now that it's here, I'm not too confident this is the bottom and am reanalyzing the situation.

You are wise to do your own analysis.  The "Analysts" were predicting AAPL to go to 1000 when it was topping. 
My experience of being "in the industry" is that sales are rising and lead times for sourcing are lengthening.

[molecular]

My experience of being "in the industry" is that sales are rising and lead times for sourcing are lengthening.

thanks for that bit of "inside knowledge".

What are early warning signs of a physical shortage that anyone outside "the industry" could check?

[NewLiberty]

My experience of being "in the industry" is that sales are rising and lead times for sourcing are lengthening.

thanks for that bit of "inside knowledge".

What are early warning signs of a physical shortage that anyone outside "the industry" could check?

Check COMEX physical deliverable.  It is a measure of stored supply.

The zerohedge folks monitor it if you want a secondary source to digest the information for you:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/first-time-total-comex-silver-drops-below-100-million-ounces-physical-deliverable-silver-und

[FiatKiller]

I've heard that silver mines are expected to dry up by ~2020. That's a ways off, but food for thought!

[dozerz]

Check the number of eagles sold over past few months, new record.

[NewLiberty]

I've heard that silver mines are expected to dry up by ~2020. That's a ways off, but food for thought!

There aren't any silver mines these days.

All the silver that is mined today is byproducts of other types of mines.  Silver is too cheap to mine currently.
If silver were REALLY expensive right now, they might call some "copper mines" operating today "silver mines".

(Whatever the main value product of a mine is at the moment considered the "type" of mine.)

New Liberty Dollars are at record highs too, but they are extremely scarce compared to the eagles, even though they can be bought more inexpensively.
The US Mint has a marketing budget, we non-government private minters can make them for less, and ours are better too.

[molecular]

Check the number of eagles sold over past few months, new record.

Record sales don't imply a shortage if supply is ample.

The comex inventory reports are interesting, but it doesn't convince me. There's 25 billion oz of silver aboveground. Let's say a meager 10% is available for investment: 2.5 billion oz. The 0.1 bn. oz. in comex are a drop in the bucket (4%). If it runs out, I'm assuming there's other sources.

Where do the mints get their silver?

[dozerz]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-17/u-s-mint-sales-of-silver-coins-reach-record-in-first-half.html

volume sales rising therefore prices fall.

see where silver comes from

http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

[rpietila]

Check the number of eagles sold over past few months, new record.

Record sales don't imply a shortage if supply is ample.

The comex inventory reports are interesting, but it doesn't convince me. There's 25 billion oz of silver aboveground. Let's say a meager 10% is available for investment: 2.5 billion oz. The 0.1 bn. oz. in comex are a drop in the bucket (4%). If it runs out, I'm assuming there's other sources.

Where do the mints get their silver?

Mints get it from refiners. There is yearly supply, but not much room for new demand, that is why many places are 'out'.

[FiatKiller]

I've heard that silver mines are expected to dry up by ~2020. That's a ways off, but food for thought!

There aren't any silver mines these days.

All the silver that is mined today is byproducts of other types of mines.  Silver is too cheap to mine currently.
If silver were REALLY expensive right now, they might call some "copper mines" operating today "silver mines".

(Whatever the main value product of a mine is at the moment considered the "type" of mine.)

New Liberty Dollars are at record highs too, but they are extremely scarce compared to the eagles, even though they can be bought more inexpensively.
The US Mint has a marketing budget, we non-government private minters can make them for less, and ours are better too.

The issue I have with private minters is that to the lay person it is less convincing that it is real silver. The American Eagles are made by the feds and the exact dimension for width, diameter, weight, are easily verifiable. There have been issues of coins merely plated with silver of gold being sold. I'd rather pay more and be more sure of what I have and to more easily barter it with a neighbor that is not knowledgeable about such things. Having said that, if I ever really stike it rich, I will collect one of about everything as a collection.  :-D

[molecular]

http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

thanks for that link... exactly what I was looking for.

I draw from that looking at the past years:

general: turnover is slightly increasing (10% / year)

supply side: government sales dropping, replaced by scrap and increased mine production

demand side: industrial demand falling, replaced by investment demand

[molecular]

Sale at the silver counter.

I don't believe the bottom is in. Don't see signs of physical shortages either... I'll wait.

I concur! There seems to be no hurry to buy in judging by market conditions.
I've also read some analysis saying as low as $10 before the turnaround happens, and it's not the argument between smoothie and s3052
My original target was ~$19, but now that it's here, I'm not too confident this is the bottom and am reanalyzing the situation.

was good decision to wait. will wait even longer. not gonna catch that knife.

[vssa]

Sale at the silver counter.

I don't believe the bottom is in. Don't see signs of physical shortages either... I'll wait.

I concur! There seems to be no hurry to buy in judging by market conditions.
I've also read some analysis saying as low as $10 before the turnaround happens, and it's not the argument between smoothie and s3052
My original target was ~$19, but now that it's here, I'm not too confident this is the bottom and am reanalyzing the situation.

was good decision to wait. will wait even longer. not gonna catch that knife.

It is very nice to see the price goes down when you are waiting to buy but keep in mind that it is paper silver price the physical worth around 30 $ right now (check on ebay or at goldsilverbitcoin/amagi metals, bitcoin accepting vendors)

So if you think that you are going to buy silver coins for 10 $ you live in a fantasy world.

What you can do is to open shorts on the paper price and leverage you'r buying when you take profit this way you taking advantage of the foiling price and in the same time buying physical.

The price of paper silver can go to 0$ or 0.5$ and that will be the end game and all thouse who waited for the perfect entry point will be left empty handed.    

For example:
In 1991 when the Ruble collapsed in Russia silver was one day worth around 3.5$-4$ and the second day in was worth infinity because you couldn't buy anything with Rubles and only real thing was worth something (gold,silver,food..)
  

[smoothie]

One thing I like to keep in mind is watching the short term trend slope and seeing how many days at that rate of fall would the price go to $0.00.

Once you see that it is like 20 or 30 days at that rate...perhaps time to buy a little.

Just a thought.

[Frozenlock]

You can go down by 50% each day and never reach zero.

$40 --> $20 --> $10 --> $5 ...