Diff thread May 11 to May 24? picks are closed!!.... prize = 0.40 btc

[philipma1957]

 Last thread we had no winner

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1453467.0

So prize jumps to 0.40 btc


Okay rules  

1)you must have been on this site since March 1st 2016  you must have at least 30 posts.
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.



4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,010,283,433 (+8.11%)
Adjust time:   After 1975 Blocks, About 13.5 days   1116 note the change
Hashrate(?):   1,425,436,593 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   9:40 (2.6 minutes ago)




6) picks end at

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,010,283,433 (+8.11%)
Adjust time:   After 1975 Blocks, About 13.5 days   716 note the change
Hashrate(?):   1,425,436,593 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   



7)  since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.


8 ) note the change  picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.

9) format is below and this is the last contest picks

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  if I hit I will roll it back in
-0.5 = Erumara        
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN     you are welcome!
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler
+3.7! Thank you!    @ Roadstress  Pleaz try to do it right >    +3.7 = Roadstress
+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8  = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = mavericklm     I changed your pick to   +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5
+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC


Difficulty History

Date                     Difficulty                  Change   Hash Rate

May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s


Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

10) Finally we will be able to fund contest until at least the first diff jump in sept.

 unless of course the ½ing destroys mining.

[Mikestang]

0.4BTC, holy cow!  That's quite a prize for a free pick-em game.

I think the on and off hash power may have been some of this next generation gear being tested or burned in, and now it's here to stay.

[VirosaGITS]

0.4BTC, holy cow!  That's quite a prize for a free pick-em game.

I think the on and off hash power may have been some of this next generation gear being tested or burned in, and now it's here to stay.

Yeah, lots of rollovers with the .1 range.

[HerbPean]

That one is going to be hard to guess.

My guts tell me we are going to to see some slowdown in the hashrate with a very low diff... but I don't really trust it ! hahahha 

[philipma1957]

Yeah I shifted picks 100 blocks later as 0.40 btc is pretty high and I want a winner.

So by the shift it should have a easier time to pick a winner.

also 0.40 btc is our biggest btc prize ever.

We should have a lot of picks.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,638,878,472 (+8.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1936 Blocks, About 13.2 days   >>>>>> 1116 is the start point
Hashrate(?):   1,426,876,562 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.4 minutes
6 blocks: 58.9 minutes
Updated:


http://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   411344
Total BTC   15.534M
 
Difficulty   194254820283
Estimated   195057429883 in 1936 blks    A big drop off as of now
 
Network total   1300218.499 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.70 / 632 s






we are at 1% or less 'real' time

price is 455 at coinbase.

So waiting til block 1116 will give a better idea  what to pick

[TheYankeesWin!]

Phil  do we have  an update on blocks?

[philipma1957]

You are lazy https://blockchain.info/blocks/1462938239540




  we are at block 117

Height   Time   Relayed By   Hash   Size (kB)


411382 (Main Chain)   2016-05-12 03:41:44   117 made since diff started

411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first


so 117 made in  22 hours

should be at 132

so 117/132-1  =    -11.36%    crazy low at the moment.  


thats is right from + 8 to -11   but it is early.



look at chart we are under big time

[philipma1957]

still doing a solid negative for real numbers



411432 (Main Chain)    2016-05-12 11:07:55   current block made
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45     first block made



so this means 167 made in 29 hours 30 minutes    should be 177 blocks

so 167/177-1 = -5.65%     but we are only 167 blocks in.


All hashrate is below the  current blue line below as this has not been updated since the one in the  above post.

[notlist3d]

The good news on value is we are not really going down to much on this period after May 10's drop.   But we are not going up really much either with price around 451.  I kinda like the coindesk chart if you have not used it ever might check it out - http://www.coindesk.com/price/   I personally use coinbase when I sell (normally to pay electricity) but it is easy to select what exchange on it to view.

Bitwisdom currently:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    209,557,270,044 (+7.88%)
Adjust time:    After 1811 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):    1,363,831,731 GH/s

[Mikestang]

Phil  do we have  an update on blocks?

The post immediately above yours has all the info you could want, plus links to click to take you to find more.  The time it took you to post this question you could have answered it yourself.

A big drop off as of now

Looks like they mis-timed turning off their hash, or we are seeing next gen hardware coming off line to be boxed up for distribution.

[philipma1957]

Well I could use a -1 or -2 % drop

but we are only 223 blocks into this jump


411487 (Main Chain)   2016-05-12 20:40:07
411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45


so time is 39 hours = 234 blocks

made is 223 blocks


223/234 -1 =  -4.70% 

but so many blocks left  we can do back to back 165 block days and be at +6%

I delayed picks by 100 blocks  since I want us to hit this contest.

so by the time we are 900 blocks  made with 1116 blocks left we will have a better idea.

[lindin99]

+3.5 = lindin99

[veves1]

+5.5 = Veves1

[RichBC]

So first full Day of the new Period and we saw -3.97% with 139 Blocks. Things are up a little this Morning but the Run Rate so far this period is holding around -3.9%. The change to the pick window will add to the tension and make this even more of a do I go for the pick I want or wait to see what is happening game....  


Rich

[philipma1957]

+3.5 = lindin99

this pick does not count too soon


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,804,463,083 (+8.00%)
Adjust time:   After 1702 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,360,503,064 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:

After Blocks    needs to be  1116    we are at 1702

[philipma1957]

+5.5 = Veves1

this pick does not count too soon


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,804,463,083 (+8.00%)
Adjust time:   After 1702 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,360,503,064 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:

After Blocks    needs to be  1116    we are at 1702

[Mikestang]

+3.5 = lindin99

+5.5 = Veves1

Reading the rules too hard for you guys?

[philipma1957]

+3.5 = lindin99

+5.5 = Veves1

Reading the rules too hard for you guys?

Be nice bro.



 To be honest I was  going to get nasty, but It is a multi-country  contest and English may be a third or fourth language for some players.
I have made more then one mistake in these Diff threads.  I also continue to hope one thread for one contest everyone follows all rules and makes zero mistakes.


If you want to have fun look this thread up.

The start of the prizes were in this thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=938186.0


do you remember seriouscoin?

[notlist3d]

Price is up a little bit at 455.  Would like to see a slow growth to over 460... don't know if we will get that though.  Would be nice.

Bitwisdom does not look to pretty right now:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    210,962,771,580 (+8.60%)
Adjust time:    After 1645 Blocks, About 11.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,360,019,035 GH/s

[philipma1957]

and we are picking up speed today see chart below






411644 (Main Chain)   2016-05-13 21:43:45


411265 (Main Chain)   2016-05-11 05:37:45

we have made 380 blocks so far in   64 hours    should be  384

so 380/384 -1 =    -1.04 %   This is real time  and very early but decent speeds as of now.