2013-02-27 Rick Rule of Sprott Asset Mgmt Discusses Bitcoin

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

Not quite there yet, but now hedging his bets, as opposed to his last pronouncement which I vaguely recall was more Doug Casey-ish.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntIiL3u_TqM

[1714159908]

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[xcsler]

Private video. Any other links?

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

Private video. Any other links?

Hmm not private for me, I just tried it on two different browsers.  Possibly some temporary glitch...try again?  

[iCEBREAKER]

Rick Rule and Sprott are Very Big Players.

They manage billions of dollars.  Sprott's personal fortune is over a billion too.

If these whales enter (or even dip a tentative flipper into) our very tiny Bitcoin pond, watch out for the splash!

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

Rick Rule and Sprott are Very Big Players.

They manage billions of dollars.  Sprott's personal fortune is over a billion too.

If these whales enter (or even dip a tentative flipper into) our very tiny Bitcoin pond, watch out for the splash!

Yeah if we were to get these guys on board, it would be massive, they are also great salesmen.  As the goldbug community gets converted, Sprott will also fall in line, I'm sure.  Rick Rule is one of the smartest/erudite/successful goldbugs on the planet, his position on Bitcoin has and will evolve just like it's starting to do with the Mises guys and James Turk.

Given Sprott now has ETFs covering Au, Ag, Pd, and Pt, the next logical move would be to offer a BTC ETF to round out the portfolio of hard commodities.

[sunnankar]

Yeah if we were to get these guys on board, it would be massive, they are also great salesmen.  As the goldbug community gets converted, Sprott will also fall in line, I'm sure.  Rick Rule is one of the smartest/erudite/successful goldbugs on the planet, his position on Bitcoin has and will evolve just like it's starting to do with the Mises guys and James Turk.

Great video. I had a pretty in-depth discussion with Rick Rule, along with a separate discussion with Peter Schiff, and others, last Saturday at the investment conference in Palm Springs. Great to see this coming along.

[molecular]

Not quite there yet, but now hedging his bets, as opposed to his last pronouncement which I vaguely recall was more Doug Casey-ish.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntIiL3u_TqM

He's still got it wrong: thinks bitcoin is an IOU and want his "medium of exchange to simultaneously be a store of value". Duh: news for gold-bugs: your criticism of bitcoin applies to gold as well... no inherent value.

He has "a problem with trust". Well, you need to trust people no more with bitcoin than you need to trust them with gold. Same thing, just one has longer history, the other has transactional features.

[molecular]

In general, the goldbugs and silver stackers are slowly coming around. This has started to pick up some speed in summer '12.

In my mind, this is fundamentally better news than coinlab or other "investor adoption" news, because goldbugs are going to be in for the long game, are used to volatility and don't easily sell on bad news or large smackdowns.

[odolvlobo]

I think his major objection (although he didn't explain it concretely or concisely) is that bitcoin has the least utility of all currencies or PMs. I think that is what he means by "store of value". I think his position is very sound. In this case, he is considering the risks of holding bitcoins compared to PMs and other established currencies. Of course, as the adoption of bitcoin grows, its utility will rival other stores of value and mediums of exchange.

The utilities of Ag, Pd, and Pt are obvious. The utility of Au is low, but it is still has some utility in jewelry and electronics. The utility of the dollar lies in its convenience as a currency. Although bitcoin has the same kind of utility as the dollar, it doesn't even come close to any of these ... yet.

[Prattler]

Great video and a smart speaker, who has a good understanding of bitcoin. He just doesn't trust bitcoin enough YET – and that's totally OK! It's already wonderful that such people have bitcoin on the radar! Trust will come in due time – bitcoin has still to prove itself!

He's still got it wrong: thinks bitcoin is an IOU and want his "medium of exchange to simultaneously be a store of value". Duh: news for gold-bugs: your criticism of bitcoin applies to gold as well... no inherent value.

He has "a problem with trust". Well, you need to trust people no more with bitcoin than you need to trust them with gold. Same thing, just one has longer history, the other has transactional features.

Totally agree. If no one wanted to use gold as money ever, it would lose 90% (?) of its value. Bitcoin would lose 100%. Barely any difference there.

[Dusty]

In general, the goldbugs and silver stackers are slowly coming around. This has started to pick up some speed in summer '12.

I agree, and now that 1 BTC has more value than 1 oz of silver many are waking up.

When 1 BTC will be valued more than 1 oz of gold all the rest of them will be fully awake

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

Great video. I had a pretty in-depth discussion with Rick Rule, along with a separate discussion with Peter Schiff, and others, last Saturday at the investment conference in Palm Springs. Great to see this coming along.

BTW thanks for the work you do, you're definitely one of the key evangelists in the Bitcoin space with your hard asset community outreach.

In my mind, this is fundamentally better news than coinlab or other "investor adoption" news, because goldbugs are going to be in for the long game, are used to volatility and don't easily sell on bad news or large smackdowns.

Great insight.  Especially for anyone used to investing in junior gold miners through Sprott's funds or individually, Bitcoin's volatility is actually quite tame.  Both 80% drawdowns and 10-bagggers are common in that market.  Rule and Casey in particular have long advocated a Taleb-style high cash + lottery tickets strategy, and Bitcoin would fit perfectly as a high risk/reward asset in that kind of barbell portfolio.

[molecular]

That guy is interesting (hadn't heard of him before). Just watching another video:

The other thing that I think is interesting about political risk, especiall when I hear this objection from libertarians and anarcho-capitalists is that political risk in 3rd-world nations, political risk in frontier nations and in particular political risk in non-white nations is less extreme than political risk here. It's as though our community believes that money that is stolen from you "in english", by caucasians, according to the rule of law is somehow less gone.

(I'm not exactly sure what are his issues with libertarians and anarcho-caplitalists... he seems to be talking in front of them and his nervousness indicates he feels a bit like as though he was in the lions den. Maybe someone can enlighten me)

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

(I'm not exactly sure what are his issues with libertarians and anarcho-caplitalists... he seems to be talking in front of them and his nervousness indicates he feels a bit like as though he was in the lions den. Maybe someone can enlighten me)

He's 100% libertarian & anarcho-capitalist himself, very closely linked to Doug Casey and Paul Van Eeden and that crew.  But in his speeches & investment philosophy, particularly in the smallcap mining universe, he tries to be very contrarian, point out inconsistencies, debunk myths, and stir things up.  Kinda similar dynamic to a black comedian doing black jokes in front of a black audience.  That's why I like to follow him, he often presents a necessary opposing viewpoint in times of utter exuberance or utter pessimism in junior mining stocks.  Some of his "you're either a contrarian or a victim" philosophy I see as applicable to Bitcoin, given that some junior mining stocks have similar volatility & illiquidity as investing in Bitcoin, and the Canadian venture exchange is a den of hucksters somewhat similar to most lending ventures in the Bitcoin universe.

[xcsler]

Yeah if we were to get these guys on board, it would be massive, they are also great salesmen.  As the goldbug community gets converted, Sprott will also fall in line, I'm sure.  Rick Rule is one of the smartest/erudite/successful goldbugs on the planet, his position on Bitcoin has and will evolve just like it's starting to do with the Mises guys and James Turk.

Great video. I had a pretty in-depth discussion with Rick Rule, along with a separate discussion with Peter Schiff, and others, last Saturday at the investment conference in Palm Springs. Great to see this coming along.

I thought you said you sorta scared Schiff in that he didn't want you to make him look like a fool. Schiff is pretty computer/tech illiterate but obviously an economic giant. Do you think he'll ever come around to understanding the value of BTC or is he too wedded to his PM busines?. Maybe you can get on his show (if you are who I think you are)  and discuss BTC now that it made a new all time high.

[xcsler]

Great video. I had a pretty in-depth discussion with Rick Rule, along with a separate discussion with Peter Schiff, and others, last Saturday at the investment conference in Palm Springs. Great to see this coming along.

BTW thanks for the work you do, you're definitely one of the key evangelists in the Bitcoin space with your hard asset community outreach.

In my mind, this is fundamentally better news than coinlab or other "investor adoption" news, because goldbugs are going to be in for the long game, are used to volatility and don't easily sell on bad news or large smackdowns.

Great insight.  Especially for anyone used to investing in junior gold miners through Sprott's funds or individually, Bitcoin's volatility is actually quite tame.  Both 80% drawdowns and 10-bagggers are common in that market.  Rule and Casey in particular have long advocated a Taleb-style high cash + lottery tickets strategy, and Bitcoin would fit perfectly as a high risk/reward asset in that kind of barbell portfolio.

In Taleb's Black Swan didn't he advocate for a lot of US Treasuries + lottery tickets? I can't recall for certain. If so, I think a gold + lottery ticket (ie. BTC) strategy might be a better strategy.

[thefiniteidea]

Yeah if we were to get these guys on board, it would be massive, they are also great salesmen.  As the goldbug community gets converted, Sprott will also fall in line, I'm sure.  Rick Rule is one of the smartest/erudite/successful goldbugs on the planet, his position on Bitcoin has and will evolve just like it's starting to do with the Mises guys and James Turk.

Great video. I had a pretty in-depth discussion with Rick Rule, along with a separate discussion with Peter Schiff, and others, last Saturday at the investment conference in Palm Springs. Great to see this coming along.

Who the hell are you? lol that's awesome!!!! Long discussion or a quickie, "I've got you for a moment" type deal?

And what did they think about Bitcoin? Do you know if they're considering investing soon?

Cool sh*t either way. 

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

In Taleb's Black Swan didn't he advocate for a lot of US Treasuries + lottery tickets? I can't recall for certain. If so, I think a gold + lottery ticket (ie. BTC) strategy might be a better strategy.

Exactly, he used US T-Bills as the example his "safe" component, but I suspect that by now he must've figured out they're immensely risky and, if anything, a black swan waiting to happen.  As you suggest, I use gold as my "safe" barbell component and BTC as one of my lottery tickets.

Using Taleb's terminology, Bitcoin is not just robust due to decentralized nature, but also antifragile, i.e. it gains from harm, since every single hack and scam and failed venture during the past few years, although the object of derision from simpletons, has made the whole ecosystem stronger and more robust.  Lack of bailouts and safety nets in Bitcoin guarantee that mistakes are learned from and overall ecosystem fitness increases over time.

[odolvlobo]

I thought you said you sorta scared Schiff in that he didn't want you to make him look like a fool. Schiff is pretty computer/tech illiterate but obviously an economic giant. Do you think he'll ever come around to understanding the value of BTC or is he too wedded to his PM busines?. Maybe you can get on his show (if you are who I think you are)  and discuss BTC now that it made a new all time high.

Now, you've gone too far. I'm a Peter Schiff fan, but I don't think he is anything close to an "economic giant". He knows his stuff and he is solidly grounded in the libertarian philosophy and Austrian economics, but his most important attribute is that he won't shut up . I think he is unfortunately somewhat blinded his ego, and he is going to miss something as a result of that blindness, and make a dumb mistake.

[xcsler]

I thought you said you sorta scared Schiff in that he didn't want you to make him look like a fool. Schiff is pretty computer/tech illiterate but obviously an economic giant. Do you think he'll ever come around to understanding the value of BTC or is he too wedded to his PM busines?. Maybe you can get on his show (if you are who I think you are)  and discuss BTC now that it made a new all time high.

Now, you've gone too far. I'm a Peter Schiff fan, but I don't think he is anything close to an "economic giant". He knows his stuff and he is solidly grounded in the libertarian philosophy and Austrian economics, but his most important attribute is that he won't shut up . I think he is unfortunately somewhat blinded his ego, and he is going to miss something as a result of that blindness, and make a dumb mistake.

I've been listening to Schiff for years and wholeheartedly agree about his ego and verbosity. I can get past his personality though because of his vast knowledge of the economy and his ability to explain its workings in a clear and simple way. He is brilliant. He has a broad knowledge base spanning macroeconomics, government policy, constitutional and American history, and technical analysis. He doesn't use notes or teleprompters and can debate anyone anytime. He got one of the Social Security trustee to admit it was a ponzi scheme for cryin' out loud (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITMEZImvNio). He also shows some humility and admits that he knows the endgame (a currency crisis) but finds it difficult to predict the endgame.

Honestly, I know "economic giant" seems a bit outlandish but who out there is any better?