YAWN

[arepo]

so we've broken the all-time-high.

what now?

how many expected a bubble top?

the momentum of this rally is shot.

if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do?

if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%?

our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.

i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up.

-===-



-===-

the blue 'volatility' line superficially suggests that the bursting of the bubble is imminent, but the slight correction after the peak in the Febuary structure fails in comparison with the size of the retrace in the June structure. we could just be approaching the support for the eventual bubble top.

whether that support has been discovered by price already or if it is currently overbought, however, is not known.

this leads to the conclusion that either:

-the panic buying starts now.
or
-we will enter a downtrend with high volatility

interestingly enough, this coincides with a hypothesis that DREE12 had earlier posited based on his analysis of "bitcoin's top days" data:

Going a bit more in-depth, we have the king effect clearly seen in Bitcoin prices:


The king effect means that when Bitcoin goes back up above $30, it will either continue to rise before a sizable collapse, or collapse immediately. For example, all of the following are plausible scenarios:

• Price remains below ~$25, with stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then quickly collapses below ~$25, with some stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to around $40 before returning to the $25 to $30 level, with little stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to far above $25 before collapsing but remaining above $25, with almost no stability

The king effect means that it is unlikely we will see both new highs and stability. One has to go.

science is when you can derive the same conclusion from different means

anyway, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

[1715017824]

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[oakpacific]

Question: where do you think would be the support levels, in all scenarios? Thanks.

[piramida]

yeah support level information would be extremely valuable from someone who did not get a single prediction right so far

[poly]

Your chart is great, I spotted about 12 bubble crashes there.

[Rothgar]

-===-



-===-

Here's a graph with a line on it.  Look at the line.  LOOK AT IT!!!!!11111111!!!!.  This line tells us about the past, therefore the future will be ...

[mccorvic]

That's very nice of you to sum up your entire post with the thread title.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

How about my analysis?

[ElectricMucus]

How about my analysis?

Needs a magic wand.

[bitcoinBull]

our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.

First of all, its not a news-based, rapid-adoption rally. Look at those long periods of sideways consolidation, first around $5, then around $12. We're in an uptrend: sideways leads to up. Until otherwise (ie downtrend) there's no reason to suspect that sideways will lead to down.

Secondly, you're using an oscillating indicator again (ADX).

But thanks for the quote about the King Effect (didn't see that before). At first glance, I can see that it's another mean-reversion statistic. Such economic models (mean-reversion long-term predictions based on historical precedence) were shown to be insufficient by the superbubble in 2008. That's because economic systems are social systems, not natural systems. Social systems are subject to reflexive effects, which means they won't behave like the natural, biological/physical laws which restrict the populations of countries. (google George Soros, his slogan is "the market is always wrong". or decent intro video convo).

The mean-reversion assumption (implicit in oscillating indicators) makes the same mistake that led to the 2008 superbubble. "Because house/asset prices always have gone up in the past, they will always go up." You're just applying it to bitcoin a little bit differently: "Because bitcoin has been worth $0.10 in the past and gone down in the past, it will go down and be worth $0.10 again."

Such mean-reversion models work for physical systems because science studies physical systems that come to equilibrium in the duration of an experiment (actually, in many experiments). But social/economic experiments do not come to equilibrium in time for us for us to conduct many experiments (unless you want to look at the MACD crossing over on the 2-hour and 6-hour scale).

So, the King Effect may hold on true on a long enough time scale (Zero Hedge slogan: "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"). Therefore, eventually, you'll be right about bitcoin. But you'll be calling the top at 3-digits, at 4-digits, at 5-digits...

So you unless you want to do that all the way up..  you still have to find the "different means" to call the top. Both ADX and the King effect are mean-reversion statistics.

[usagi]

so we've broken the all-time-high.

what now?

how many expected a bubble top?

the momentum of this rally is shot.

if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do?

if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%?

our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.

i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up.

This situation is absolutely fascinating to me. The uptrend has not been broken and we have significant acceptable downside. Back to $16, actually. Although that window is fading FAST. I think the market is short-term hot but long term this is just the trend we have been seeing for quite some time.

[donjoe]

I think the market is short-term hot but long term this is just the trend we have been seeing for quite some time.

Quite some time, yeah, close to a month and a half.

[deathcode]

Let's ask a monkey... since most idiots trying to make sense of the market here are always wrong...

[bitcoinBull]

Nice channel.. very simple. So simple its genius, many satoshis for you good sir.

[tripper22]

Yawn. More technical analysis voodoo from arepo. My witch doctor told me to sell at $20 because there was a crazy divergence in one of the indicators. TA is total bunk.

[phatsphere]

TA is total bunk.

… or your witch doctor

[damnek]

desperate bear logic

[proudhon]

This is probably the top.

[piramida]

This is probably the top.

just bought another 300 since it's obviously the bottom.

[phatsphere]

This is probably the top.

so, it will stay at 33 for the weekend and then retreat to what? 13?

[lebing]

This is probably the top.

10-4 Houston




To the moon!!

[Rothgar]

How about my analysis?

I'm scared of the triangles. 

However the stars are pretty.   

[Piper67]

Maybe people who get it wrong so consistently should be limited to their own forum. Kinda like we do with the newbies 

[mr chong]

Let's ask a monkey... since most idiots trying to make sense of the market here are always wrong...

Well there is one person who is right about 99.99% of the time "proudhon", just because he uses the child psychology which means everything he says just do the opposite does not mean he not almost always right.

Just look at his post on this thread, we are all but guaranteed to hit 34 now that he made his prediction (again).

[mccorvic]

Maybe people who get it wrong so consistently should be limited to their own forum. Kinda like we do with the newbies 

I second this proposal.

[bitcoinBull]

Its going up too fast. Ooh, now its going up too slow!

It went up, but time to go back down. Turning down now... okay trend changed. Gonna go all the way down, naturally..

Bear logic.

[DoomDumas]

I like the "slow" upward trend.. slow compared to the 2011 peak !

It's look like a very sustainable growth, especially with what bitcoin are today compared to what it was 2 years ago !

I bet we will never be able to buy BTC under 30 !  ever !

I'll still buy all the way up to 100, then hold !

[deathcode]

I like the "slow" upward trend.. slow compared to the 2011 peak !

It's look like a very sustainable growth, especially with what bitcoin are today compared to what it was 2 years ago !

I bet we will never be able to buy BTC under 30 !  ever !

I'll still buy all the way up to 100, then hold !

UNLESS there's some security concern or something like MtGox leaving US customers turns to be real (and even then), or the US government comes up with soem stupid regulation that will prevent americans from obtaining bitcoin in an easy/secure way. I don't think we'll see BTC under $30 ever again.

[ElectricMucus]

This is probably the top.

oh look its proudhon. 

[conspirosphere.tk]

it's just that we are the only ones in a world currency race to debase with the parking brake pulled.

[Elwar]

My technical analysis is never wrong. Here is another:

_/\_----^_/

Buy or sell based upon that and you are all set for big money.

[usagi]

This is probably the top.

oh look its proudhon. 

This is probably the top.

[proudhon]

This is probably the top.

oh look its proudhon. 

This is probably the top.

It's going to be right around here, I'm fairly certain.

[lebing]

This is probably the top.

oh look its proudhon. 

This is probably the top.

It's going to be right around here, I'm fairly certain.

Now you are just doing it for the lulz

[usagi]

This is probably the top.

oh look its proudhon. 

This is probably the top.

It's going to be right around here, I'm fairly certain.

Now you are just doing it for the lulz

Nahh, because people have seen speculative frenzies like this before. This isn't a new situation to anyone but the likes of ElectricMucus (lol).

It MAY jump as high as $40. Who knows? Who cares? You CAN'T cash out at the top. You just want to stay with the trend. The trend right now is unsustainable. This is what we know. Do you have an exit plan? Surely you know the saying, bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

[lebing]

This is probably the top.

oh look its proudhon. 

This is probably the top.

It's going to be right around here, I'm fairly certain.

Now you are just doing it for the lulz

Nahh, because people have seen speculative frenzies like this before. This isn't a new situation to anyone but the likes of ElectricMucus (lol).

It MAY jump as high as $40. Who knows? Who cares? You CAN'T cash out at the top. You just want to stay with the trend. The trend right now is unsustainable. This is what we know. Do you have an exit plan? Surely you know the saying, bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

Exit plan? Yeah, sure. I'm working on my exit from fiat and its coming along nicely.

[steamboat]

This is probably the top.

oh look its proudhon. 

This is probably the top.

It's going to be right around here, I'm fairly certain.

Now you are just doing it for the lulz

Nahh, because people have seen speculative frenzies like this before. This isn't a new situation to anyone but the likes of ElectricMucus (lol).

It MAY jump as high as $40. Who knows? Who cares? You CAN'T cash out at the top. You just want to stay with the trend. The trend right now is unsustainable. This is what we know. Do you have an exit plan? Surely you know the saying, bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

Do you have any analysis as to why this trend is unsustainable? It perplexes me why there are those on the forum who are only willing to accept slight success for bitcoin. What if a small country adopts bitcoin as their national currency? What if a major e-commerce site integrates bitcoin? Those that prophesy a downtrend because bitcoin adoption is unsustainable should at the very least back up their arguments with logic.


That's not to say a major flaw could be discovered tomorrow and the price tanks to $0. Both are possible, why do you think one is probable over the other, and what proof other than napkin logic and feelings do you have?

[usagi]

Do you have any analysis as to why this trend is unsustainable? It perplexes me why there are those on the forum who are only willing to accept slight success for bitcoin. What if a small country adopts bitcoin as their national currency? What if a major e-commerce site integrates bitcoin? Those that prophesy a downtrend because bitcoin adoption is unsustainable should at the very least back up their arguments with logic.

That's not to say a major flaw could be discovered tomorrow and the price tanks to $0. Both are possible, why do you think one is probable over the other, and what proof other than napkin logic and feelings do you have?

I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins.

[Piper67]

This is probably the top.

oh look its proudhon. 

This is probably the top.

It's going to be right around here, I'm fairly certain.

Shit, Proud, what are we supposed to do with "fairly certain"... give us an absolute certainty so we know to move in the opposite direction, will you?

[mccorvic]

I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins.

Looks like someone hasn't heard of the McCorvic index.

[lebing]

I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins.

True.



That at least is a new argument.

[steamboat]

Do you have any analysis as to why this trend is unsustainable? It perplexes me why there are those on the forum who are only willing to accept slight success for bitcoin. What if a small country adopts bitcoin as their national currency? What if a major e-commerce site integrates bitcoin? Those that prophesy a downtrend because bitcoin adoption is unsustainable should at the very least back up their arguments with logic.

That's not to say a major flaw could be discovered tomorrow and the price tanks to $0. Both are possible, why do you think one is probable over the other, and what proof other than napkin logic and feelings do you have?

I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins.

Why do you think it's unsustainable. It doesn't matter which relationship we are discussing. If it is a generalized belief, that's all well and good. This is the speculation sub-forum after all, and all opinions are welcome. I don't however, agree with statements like The trend right now is unsustainable. This is what we know.. We don't know this, and you haven't offered up any explanation as to why you feel this way.

As an aside, currency was not made to be eaten. If you are, you're doing it wrong.

[usagi]

I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins.

Looks like someone hasn't heard of the McCorvic index.

What are you trying to say?

[humanitee]

The current McCorvic Index:
1 btc : 334 pizza rolls

[usagi]

Do you have any analysis as to why this trend is unsustainable? It perplexes me why there are those on the forum who are only willing to accept slight success for bitcoin. What if a small country adopts bitcoin as their national currency? What if a major e-commerce site integrates bitcoin? Those that prophesy a downtrend because bitcoin adoption is unsustainable should at the very least back up their arguments with logic.

That's not to say a major flaw could be discovered tomorrow and the price tanks to $0. Both are possible, why do you think one is probable over the other, and what proof other than napkin logic and feelings do you have?

I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins.

Why do you think it's unsustainable. It doesn't matter which relationship we are discussing. If it is a generalized belief, that's all well and good. This is the speculation sub-forum after all, and all opinions are welcome. I don't however, agree with statements like The trend right now is unsustainable. This is what we know.. We don't know this, and you haven't offered up any explanation as to why you feel this way.

As an aside, currency was not made to be eaten. If you are, you're doing it wrong.

In comparison to percentage gains and losses on logarithmic charts to the upside we are seeing a linear progression towards zero in silver/BTC. We know it's unsustainable because precious metals can never be worth zero. Especially an industrial metal like silver. The scary thing about the charts is that the progression is linear. It's not stopping. People will double and triple on these moves. Imagine investing just 150 BTC $35 into $28 silver. (203 oz.) When BTC falls back down to $20, and silver goes back to $38, which are just normal, expected technical points, you now have 386 BTC. More than 100%. We don't know when we will hit these technical points but we must expect to hit them to be honest traders. Otherwise, if there is no other news, no supporting macroeconomic picture, we're just gambling.

[Piper67]

Do you have any analysis as to why this trend is unsustainable? It perplexes me why there are those on the forum who are only willing to accept slight success for bitcoin. What if a small country adopts bitcoin as their national currency? What if a major e-commerce site integrates bitcoin? Those that prophesy a downtrend because bitcoin adoption is unsustainable should at the very least back up their arguments with logic.

That's not to say a major flaw could be discovered tomorrow and the price tanks to $0. Both are possible, why do you think one is probable over the other, and what proof other than napkin logic and feelings do you have?

I should clarify, I mean the trend with relation to precious metals. I do not believe BTC will appreciate much farther against silver and gold. That's also what I meant by exit plan; in spite of new money, you can't eat bitcoins.

Why do you think it's unsustainable. It doesn't matter which relationship we are discussing. If it is a generalized belief, that's all well and good. This is the speculation sub-forum after all, and all opinions are welcome. I don't however, agree with statements like The trend right now is unsustainable. This is what we know.. We don't know this, and you haven't offered up any explanation as to why you feel this way.

As an aside, currency was not made to be eaten. If you are, you're doing it wrong.

Seriously?

In comparison to percentage gains and losses on logarithmic charts to the upside we are seeing a linear progression towards ZERO in silver/BTC. We know it's unsustainable because precious metals can never be worth zero.

This isn't about gaining or losing 10%. This is about how many times you can gain or lose $1 before you hit ZERO. When you go to zero, very small moves turn into huge percentage moves. Silver is going to become exceedingly volatile as it lowers in price, and a time will come when it reverses. I just have no idea when that time will be. But what we do know, is that precious metal's linear trend towards zero, denominated in BTC, is not sustainable.

You have nowhere near the number of data points to ascertain a linear function. For all you know, it's asymptotic, kinda like Bitcoin 

[usagi]

You have nowhere near the number of data points to ascertain a linear function. For all you know, it's asymptotic, kinda like Bitcoin 

This isn't about what I know, but for what it's worth you're right, I don't have all the data points -- the silver store I work for does. And I can tell you from the proprietary charts I've seen, it's linear.

[arepo]

Going a bit more in-depth, we have the king effect clearly seen in Bitcoin prices:


The king effect means that when Bitcoin goes back up above $30, it will either continue to rise before a sizable collapse, or collapse immediately. For example, all of the following are plausible scenarios:

• Price remains below ~$25, with stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then quickly collapses below ~$25, with some stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to around $40 before returning to the $25 to $30 level, with little stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to far above $25 before collapsing but remaining above $25, with almost no stability

The king effect means that it is unlikely we will see both new highs and stability. One has to go.

science is when you can derive the same conclusion from different means

anyway, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

Lol. It's a log-log scale, and what's on the horizontal axis? The number of data points? I think you've been played.

You'll get that "king effect" with any (positive) data set that has simple exponential growth* over time. Add some new "all-time highs" and what happens? The old 'king' point get shunted off to the right and exponentially closer to the straight line approximation. Then the new all-time high becomes the new king point and there's only a very small chance that it will hit the middle.

*Edit: (and some noise superimposed on the signal)

the conclusion still holds that when new 'exponential highs' are reached, they will bring with them instability.

did you even read the words underneath?

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

[mccorvic]

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

Which it doesn't. Therefore /thread

[arepo]

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

Which it doesn't. Therefore /thread

please. it doesn't necessarily. but saying the opposite just as surely is just as bad.

do you have a peer-reviewed paper proving the absence of time-dependent autocorrelations in price data?

[Piper67]

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

Which it doesn't. Therefore /thread

please. it doesn't necessarily. but saying the opposite just as surely is just as bad.

do you have a peer-reviewed paper proving the absence of time-dependent autocorrelations in price data?

Hmmm... you can't prove a negative, arepo. You also can't prove the non-existence of unicorns. The onus is on you to prove the correlations are causal, not the other way around.

[arepo]

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

Which it doesn't. Therefore /thread

please. it doesn't necessarily. but saying the opposite just as surely is just as bad.

do you have a peer-reviewed paper proving the absence of time-dependent autocorrelations in price data?

Hmmm... you can't prove a negative, arepo. You also can't prove the non-existence of unicorns. The onus is on you to prove the correlations are causal, not the other way around.

the onus is on the claimant.

the onus is on nobody at all if i state it as an assumption.

[mccorvic]

the onus is on the claimant.

the onus is on nobody at all if i state it as an assumption.

No, if you make assumptions without any evidence/support/ect then you are a terrible poster. Watch, I'll demonstrate.

The market will reach $10000 per BTC this afternoon with the assumption someone is going to spend a billion dollars on BTC.  I will now proceed to get all butt-hurt if anyone says this assumption is dumb.

Why? Why the hell would I assume that?!

BTC is actually the tool of the Lizard Alien Race from the largest moon of Jupiter to control all humanity, with the assumption that the Lizard Alien Race wants to control all humanity.

See! I did it again.

[bitcon]

i actually fell asleep while reading this thread. woke up with my iphone lying next to me.

[arepo]

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

Which it doesn't. Therefore /thread

emphasis mine.

this statement may not be true. that is all i'm trying to say.

if you disagree with my assumptions, then don't bother with the conclusion. it needn't follow. but don't get butthurt just because you don't think TA is worth anything. many people here do and are interested in the various projections of that assumption.

[mccorvic]

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

Which it doesn't. Therefore /thread

emphasis mine.

this statement may not be true. that is all i'm trying to say.

if you disagree with my assumptions, then don't bother with the conclusion. it needn't follow. but don't get butthurt just because you don't think TA is worth anything. many people here do and are interested in the various projections of that assumption.

I wouldn't bother if you guys didn't post 15 thousand threads every time upload a picture and proclaim that TEH CRASH IZ COMING! DA LINEZ SHOW IT!  That's why you don't see me in the long running TA threads.

[arepo]

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

Which it doesn't. Therefore /thread

emphasis mine.

this statement may not be true. that is all i'm trying to say.

if you disagree with my assumptions, then don't bother with the conclusion. it needn't follow. but don't get butthurt just because you don't think TA is worth anything. many people here do and are interested in the various projections of that assumption.

I wouldn't bother if you guys didn't post 15 thousand threads every time upload a picture and proclaim that TEH CRASH IZ COMING! DA LINEZ SHOW IT!  That's why you don't see me in the long running TA threads.

you wouldn't bother me so much if you knew a cow's lick about technical analysis and the discussions we have about it were actually constructive.

bearish perspectives are important. i was wrong in my predictions. i can handle that. can you handle that?

[damnek]

This thread's title makes no sense at all.

[mccorvic]

you wouldn't bother me so much if you knew a cow's lick about technical analysis and the discussions we have about it were actually constructive.

bearish perspectives are important. i was wrong in my predictions. i can handle that. can you handle that?

But I do know all about it brother.  That's what I'm sayin'.

I can handle that your wrong, and it's not even that I care that you're wrong. I don't even care that much actually.  It all seems a bit out of context today as the big bump is (maybe?) over, but seeing 10 threads start each with an OP that has a some TA chart and some doom-gloom sentiment is a bit over the top.  Like the tarot card guy, I don't think I posted in his thread at all mostly because he had one thread and he updated it and the title was something designed to inspire fear/flame posts/whatever even though I think tarot reading is jsut as effective as TA.

I'm not aiming to tell you how to post, but I'm just sayin' if you post multiple threads with titles like YAWN and CRASH COMING EVERYONE'S GONNA DIE! (one of the two is an exaggeration) I'm going to probably show up and throw it back at ya.  I don't do the same for bullish TA posts mostly because they seem less serious in the first place to me, but I do have the same opinion of them.

[piramida]

This is probably the top.

just bought another 300 since it's obviously the bottom.

and damn was I right. thanks proudhon again.

[arepo]

This thread's title makes no sense at all.

verdict: bubble top

also, the point of the title of the thread was that we've seen this all before and we knew this was where we were heading.

also, i was fuckn blazed when i posted it, so that may also have been a part of it

[bitcoinBull]

This thread's title makes no sense at all.

verdict: bubble top

Do you have enough conviction this time to take some bets on it?

[damnek]

This thread's title makes no sense at all.

verdict: bubble top

My point was that calling a thread YAWN doesn't make a lot of sense during this imo exciting price action. Congrats on finally calling the top btw.

[flaab]

SELL SELL SELL SELL!

[arepo]

This thread's title makes no sense at all.

verdict: bubble top

Do you have enough conviction this time to take some bets on it?

give me some proper terms and i'll consider it. what's your bet?