YAWN

[arepo]

so we've broken the all-time-high.

what now?

how many expected a bubble top?

the momentum of this rally is shot.

if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do?

if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%?

our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.

i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up.

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the blue 'volatility' line superficially suggests that the bursting of the bubble is imminent, but the slight correction after the peak in the Febuary structure fails in comparison with the size of the retrace in the June structure. we could just be approaching the support for the eventual bubble top.

whether that support has been discovered by price already or if it is currently overbought, however, is not known.

this leads to the conclusion that either:

-the panic buying starts now.
or
-we will enter a downtrend with high volatility

interestingly enough, this coincides with a hypothesis that DREE12 had earlier posited based on his analysis of "bitcoin's top days" data:

Going a bit more in-depth, we have the king effect clearly seen in Bitcoin prices:


The king effect means that when Bitcoin goes back up above $30, it will either continue to rise before a sizable collapse, or collapse immediately. For example, all of the following are plausible scenarios:

• Price remains below ~$25, with stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then quickly collapses below ~$25, with some stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to around $40 before returning to the $25 to $30 level, with little stability
• Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to far above $25 before collapsing but remaining above $25, with almost no stability

The king effect means that it is unlikely we will see both new highs and stability. One has to go.

science is when you can derive the same conclusion from different means

anyway, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

[oakpacific]

Question: where do you think would be the support levels, in all scenarios? Thanks.

[piramida]

yeah support level information would be extremely valuable from someone who did not get a single prediction right so far

[poly]

Your chart is great, I spotted about 12 bubble crashes there.

[Rothgar]

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Here's a graph with a line on it.  Look at the line.  LOOK AT IT!!!!!11111111!!!!.  This line tells us about the past, therefore the future will be ...

[mccorvic]

That's very nice of you to sum up your entire post with the thread title.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

How about my analysis?

[ElectricMucus]

How about my analysis?

Needs a magic wand.

[bitcoinBull]

our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.

First of all, its not a news-based, rapid-adoption rally. Look at those long periods of sideways consolidation, first around $5, then around $12. We're in an uptrend: sideways leads to up. Until otherwise (ie downtrend) there's no reason to suspect that sideways will lead to down.

Secondly, you're using an oscillating indicator again (ADX).

But thanks for the quote about the King Effect (didn't see that before). At first glance, I can see that it's another mean-reversion statistic. Such economic models (mean-reversion long-term predictions based on historical precedence) were shown to be insufficient by the superbubble in 2008. That's because economic systems are social systems, not natural systems. Social systems are subject to reflexive effects, which means they won't behave like the natural, biological/physical laws which restrict the populations of countries. (google George Soros, his slogan is "the market is always wrong". or decent intro video convo).

The mean-reversion assumption (implicit in oscillating indicators) makes the same mistake that led to the 2008 superbubble. "Because house/asset prices always have gone up in the past, they will always go up." You're just applying it to bitcoin a little bit differently: "Because bitcoin has been worth $0.10 in the past and gone down in the past, it will go down and be worth $0.10 again."

Such mean-reversion models work for physical systems because science studies physical systems that come to equilibrium in the duration of an experiment (actually, in many experiments). But social/economic experiments do not come to equilibrium in time for us for us to conduct many experiments (unless you want to look at the MACD crossing over on the 2-hour and 6-hour scale).

So, the King Effect may hold on true on a long enough time scale (Zero Hedge slogan: "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"). Therefore, eventually, you'll be right about bitcoin. But you'll be calling the top at 3-digits, at 4-digits, at 5-digits...

So you unless you want to do that all the way up..  you still have to find the "different means" to call the top. Both ADX and the King effect are mean-reversion statistics.

[usagi]

so we've broken the all-time-high.

what now?

how many expected a bubble top?

the momentum of this rally is shot.

if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do?

if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%?

our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.

i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up.

This situation is absolutely fascinating to me. The uptrend has not been broken and we have significant acceptable downside. Back to $16, actually. Although that window is fading FAST. I think the market is short-term hot but long term this is just the trend we have been seeing for quite some time.

[donjoe]

I think the market is short-term hot but long term this is just the trend we have been seeing for quite some time.

Quite some time, yeah, close to a month and a half.

[deathcode]

Let's ask a monkey... since most idiots trying to make sense of the market here are always wrong...

[bitcoinBull]

Nice channel.. very simple. So simple its genius, many satoshis for you good sir.

[tripper22]

Yawn. More technical analysis voodoo from arepo. My witch doctor told me to sell at $20 because there was a crazy divergence in one of the indicators. TA is total bunk.

[phatsphere]

TA is total bunk.

… or your witch doctor

[damnek]

desperate bear logic

[proudhon]

This is probably the top.

[piramida]

This is probably the top.

just bought another 300 since it's obviously the bottom.

[phatsphere]

This is probably the top.

so, it will stay at 33 for the weekend and then retreat to what? 13?

[lebing]

This is probably the top.

10-4 Houston




To the moon!!