arepo (OP)
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this statement is false
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February 28, 2013, 05:37:06 AM |
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so we've broken the all-time-high. what now? how many expected a bubble top? the momentum of this rally is shot. if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do? if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%? our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating. i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up. -===- ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fs2.postimage.org%2F5fm9wy08p%2Fbubbleadx.png&t=665&c=LwuqymQ1nAa32A) -===- the blue 'volatility' line superficially suggests that the bursting of the bubble is imminent, but the slight correction after the peak in the Febuary structure fails in comparison with the size of the retrace in the June structure. we could just be approaching the support for the eventual bubble top. whether that support has been discovered by price already or if it is currently overbought, however, is not known. this leads to the conclusion that either: - the panic buying starts now.or - we will enter a downtrend with high volatilityinterestingly enough, this coincides with a hypothesis that DREE12 had earlier posited based on his analysis of "bitcoin's top days" data: Going a bit more in-depth, we have the king effect clearly seen in Bitcoin prices: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FA1G7PZx.png&t=665&c=2_rc0z7MXs4aSQ) The king effect means that when Bitcoin goes back up above $30, it will either continue to rise before a sizable collapse, or collapse immediately. For example, all of the following are plausible scenarios: - Price remains below ~$25, with stability
- Price rises above ~$25, then quickly collapses below ~$25, with some stability
- Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to around $40 before returning to the $25 to $30 level, with little stability
- Price rises above ~$25, then continues rising to far above $25 before collapsing but remaining above $25, with almost no stability
The king effect means that it is unlikely we will see both new highs and stability. One has to go. science is when you can derive the same conclusion from different means ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) anyway, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
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this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period. 18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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oakpacific
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February 28, 2013, 05:45:27 AM |
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Question: where do you think would be the support levels, in all scenarios? Thanks.
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piramida
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Borsche
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February 28, 2013, 06:03:41 AM |
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yeah support level information would be extremely valuable from someone who did not get a single prediction right so far ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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i am satoshi
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poly
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Weighted companion cube
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February 28, 2013, 06:04:57 AM |
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Your chart is great, I spotted about 12 bubble crashes there.
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Rothgar
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February 28, 2013, 06:13:02 AM |
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-===- ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fs2.postimage.org%2F5fm9wy08p%2Fbubbleadx.png&t=665&c=LwuqymQ1nAa32A) -===- Here's a graph with a line on it. Look at the line. LOOK AT IT!!!!!11111111!!!!. This line tells us about the past, therefore the future will be ...
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mccorvic
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 28, 2013, 06:17:56 AM |
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That's very nice of you to sum up your entire post with the thread title.
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🏰 TradeFortress 🏰
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👻
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 28, 2013, 06:31:53 AM |
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How about my analysis? ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fp2jBduY.png&t=665&c=hamntO3HrW05Zg)
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ElectricMucus
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Marketing manager - GO MP
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 28, 2013, 06:33:46 AM |
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How about my analysis? ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fp2jBduY.png&t=665&c=hamntO3HrW05Zg) Needs a magic wand.
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bitcoinBull
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rippleFanatic
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February 28, 2013, 06:44:19 AM |
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our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.
First of all, its not a news-based, rapid-adoption rally. Look at those long periods of sideways consolidation, first around $5, then around $12. We're in an uptrend: sideways leads to up. Until otherwise (ie downtrend) there's no reason to suspect that sideways will lead to down. Secondly, you're using an oscillating indicator again (ADX). But thanks for the quote about the King Effect (didn't see that before). At first glance, I can see that it's another mean-reversion statistic. Such economic models (mean-reversion long-term predictions based on historical precedence) were shown to be insufficient by the superbubble in 2008. That's because economic systems are social systems, not natural systems. Social systems are subject to reflexive effects, which means they won't behave like the natural, biological/physical laws which restrict the populations of countries. (google George Soros, his slogan is "the market is always wrong". or decent intro video convo). The mean-reversion assumption (implicit in oscillating indicators) makes the same mistake that led to the 2008 superbubble. "Because house/asset prices always have gone up in the past, they will always go up." You're just applying it to bitcoin a little bit differently: "Because bitcoin has been worth $0.10 in the past and gone down in the past, it will go down and be worth $0.10 again." Such mean-reversion models work for physical systems because science studies physical systems that come to equilibrium in the duration of an experiment (actually, in many experiments). But social/economic experiments do not come to equilibrium in time for us for us to conduct many experiments (unless you want to look at the MACD crossing over on the 2-hour and 6-hour scale). So, the King Effect may hold on true on a long enough time scale (Zero Hedge slogan: "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"). Therefore, eventually, you'll be right about bitcoin. But you'll be calling the top at 3-digits, at 4-digits, at 5-digits... So you unless you want to do that all the way up.. you still have to find the "different means" to call the top. Both ADX and the King effect are mean-reversion statistics.
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College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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usagi
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13
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 28, 2013, 07:17:08 AM |
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so we've broken the all-time-high. what now? how many expected a bubble top? the momentum of this rally is shot. if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do? if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%? our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating. i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up. This situation is absolutely fascinating to me. The uptrend has not been broken and we have significant acceptable downside. Back to $16, actually. Although that window is fading FAST. I think the market is short-term hot but long term this is just the trend we have been seeing for quite some time. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fkongzi.ca%2Fsilver%2Fmisc%2F20130228mtgox.png&t=665&c=H9KERS2dRk4Sgw)
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donjoe
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February 28, 2013, 07:24:00 AM |
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I think the market is short-term hot but long term this is just the trend we have been seeing for quite some time. Quite some time, yeah, close to a month and a half. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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deathcode
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Eloncoin.org - Mars, here we come!
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February 28, 2013, 07:29:58 AM |
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Let's ask a monkey... since most idiots trying to make sense of the market here are always wrong...
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▄▄████████▄▄ ▄▄████████████████▄▄ ▄██████████████████████▄ ▄█████████████████████████▄ ▄███████████████████████████▄
| ███████████████████▄████▄ █████████████████▄███████ ████████████████▄███████▀ ██████████▄▄███▄██████▀ ████████▄████▄█████▀▀ ██████▄██████████▀ ███▄▄████████████▄ ██▄███████████████ ░▄██████████████▀ ▄█████████████▀ █████████████ ███████████▀ ███████▀▀ | | | Mars, here we come! | ▄▄███████▄▄ ▄███████████████▄ ▄███████████████████▄ ▄█████████████████████▄ ▄███████████████████████▄ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ █████████████████████████ ▀███████████████████████▀ ▀█████████████████████▀ ▀███████████████████▀ ▀███████████████▀ ▀▀███████▀▀ | ElonCoin.org | │ | | .
| │ | ████████▄▄███████▄▄ ███████▄████████████▌ ██████▐██▀███████▀▀██ ███████████████████▐█▌ ████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄██▄▄▄▄▄ ███▀░▐███▀▄█▄█▀▀█▄█▄▀ ██████████████▄██████▌ █████▐██▄██████▄████▐ █████████▀░▄▄▄▄▄ ███████▄█▄░▀█▄▄░▀ ███▄██▄▀███▄█████▄▀ ▄██████▄▀███████▀ ████████▄▀████▀█████▄▄ | . "I could either watch it happen or be a part of it" ▬▬▬▬▬ |
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bitcoinBull
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rippleFanatic
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February 28, 2013, 07:57:03 AM |
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Nice channel.. very simple. So simple its genius, many satoshis for you good sir.
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College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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tripper22
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 28, 2013, 08:36:30 AM |
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Yawn. More technical analysis voodoo from arepo. My witch doctor told me to sell at $20 because there was a crazy divergence in one of the indicators. TA is total bunk.
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phatsphere
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February 28, 2013, 09:54:22 AM |
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TA is total bunk.
… or your witch doctor
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damnek
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February 28, 2013, 10:07:18 AM |
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desperate bear logic
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proudhon
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February 28, 2013, 11:45:33 AM |
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This is probably the top.
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Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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piramida
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Borsche
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February 28, 2013, 11:54:04 AM Last edit: March 06, 2013, 06:35:07 AM by piramida |
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This is probably the top.
just bought another 300 since it's obviously the bottom.
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i am satoshi
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phatsphere
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 28, 2013, 12:07:36 PM |
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This is probably the top.
so, it will stay at 33 for the weekend and then retreat to what? 13?
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lebing
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Enabling the maximal migration
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February 28, 2013, 12:14:29 PM |
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This is probably the top.
10-4 Houston ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FlxR4QqO.jpg&t=665&c=ij8qZqpijrlEMg) To the moon!!
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Bro, do you even blockchain? -E Voorhees
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