Pump 'n' Dump - Happening Now?

[bonker]

Like everyone I'm enjoying the Bitcoin price rampage upwards. But lets remember that it could just be a pump and dump from a shadowy figure with deep pockets. Here's the mechanism, for those unfamilliar:

1) In a stable market, The Pumper buys the market heavily.
2) As all offers are taken by the buyer, the market price rises rapidly.
3) The masses see the price move upwards and get excited.
4) The masses start buying at higher and higher prices
5) The Pumper starts selling his bitcoin to the new buyers at the new high price, making a profit
6) The Pumper sells all his coin
7) The market falls back to its original state, losses for the masses

This could be what's happening.. easy to do in such a small market.

[1715012565]

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[1715012565]

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[Lethn]

I think that the prices are only of a serious concern to people who are trying to buy Bitcoins really, it's a bit like people who claim that a rising Chinese yuan is bad for everyone else, yeah, that's because you have crappy currencies that aren't worth anything so it will get more and more expensive as the real value of it is realised. If you only take Bitcoin it's going to be fine for you, if you only deal in conventional currencies then it's going to become increasingly more expensive to get Bitcoins this is why diversification is a really good idea but for me personally because Bitcoin just has too many benefits I'm probably going to take the plunge and only take them.

I'm not worried one bit

[Endgame]

Seems to me that pump and dumping bitcoin would be harder than it looks. What if some other large player or early miner moves against you? Bitcoin would have a bunch of such people now. Or what if some big news event happens midway through, causing a crash before you have even started your dump?

[Bowjob]

It's actually a Pump and don't Dump 

[bonker]

Seems to me that pump and dumping bitcoin would be harder than it looks. What if some other large player or early miner moves against you? Bitcoin would have a bunch of such people now. Or what if some big news event happens midway through, causing a crash before you have even started your dump?

Yeah, its not without risk, but it could be easy money if done right. Pump it up, dump it down and repeat.

[aznmonky]

this is defiantly possible i am highly skeptical of this huge raise lately

[casascius]

Why dump?  A shadowy figure with deep pockets need merely to offer BTC to big players at MtGox price, rather than dumping them on MtGox.

Either BTC is here to stay or it's not.  If it's here to stay, it's easily worth billions of dollars as a phenomenon, thus, "dumping" coins at $30 (that is to say, the bitcoin revolution as we know it is only worth $350 million) would appear sort of foolish.

[Peter Lambert]

Why dump?  A shadowy figure with deep pockets need merely to offer BTC to big players at MtGox price, rather than dumping them on MtGox.

Either BTC is here to stay or it's not.  If it's here to stay, it's easily worth billions of dollars as a phenomenon, thus, "dumping" coins at $30 (that is to say, the bitcoin revolution as we know it is only worth $350 million) would appear sort of foolish.

So somebody like Coinbase could be buying the bitcoins on mtgox, thus eating up all the ask orders and driving up the price, and then selling the coins at the new higher rate to the public, selling at the high mtgox price but not pushing the price back down?

[bonker]

Why dump?  A shadowy figure with deep pockets need merely to offer BTC to big players at MtGox price, rather than dumping them on MtGox.

Either BTC is here to stay or it's not.  If it's here to stay, it's easily worth billions of dollars as a phenomenon, thus, "dumping" coins at $30 (that is to say, the bitcoin revolution as we know it is only worth $350 million) would appear sort of foolish.

"Dumping" really means the market just falling to its natural, free market price after the pumper has exited his positions.

[BitcoinAshley]

Only problem with suggesting a pump n' dump is that we have seen a pretty steady release of "good news." Enough to easily warrant a rally.
I would suspect manipulation if a rally was happening out of nowhere.
But if someone is pumping and dumping at the same time as a rally was happening, probably the most damage they could inflict is a correction.

[wtfvanity]

Why dump?  A shadowy figure with deep pockets need merely to offer BTC to big players at MtGox price, rather than dumping them on MtGox.

Either BTC is here to stay or it's not.  If it's here to stay, it's easily worth billions of dollars as a phenomenon, thus, "dumping" coins at $30 (that is to say, the bitcoin revolution as we know it is only worth $350 million) would appear sort of foolish.

So somebody like Coinbase could be buying the bitcoins on mtgox, thus eating up all the ask orders and driving up the price, and then selling the coins at the new higher rate to the public, selling at the high mtgox price but not pushing the price back down?

Dun dun dun... sounds interesting.

[RodeoX]

Although the market is small enough to be manipulated to some degree, there is no specific evidence. Why not just attribute this to the growth of bitcoin. After all, BBC news is calling it "light years ahead" in an story today. It may be just be growing because it is a good idea.
 

[bonker]

Although the market is small enough to be manipulated to some degree, there is no specific evidence. Why not just attribute this to the growth of bitcoin. After all, BBC news is calling it "light years ahead" in an story today. It may be just be growing because it is a good idea.
 

That would be nice. I mean chances are in the long run Bitcoin is going ever upwards, even with pump and dumps along the way.

People goofing on this forum now are still reasonably early adopters... we could all be rich in five years.

[CurbsideProphet]

Why dump?  A shadowy figure with deep pockets need merely to offer BTC to big players at MtGox price, rather than dumping them on MtGox.

Because it's much easier to manipulate a $350 million market vs a multi-billion market.  And MtGox has the volume needed in this sort of scheme, you can't get rid of that many coins anyplace else as easily.

Either BTC is here to stay or it's not.  If it's here to stay, it's easily worth billions of dollars as a phenomenon, thus, "dumping" coins at $30 (that is to say, the bitcoin revolution as we know it is only worth $350 million) would appear sort of foolish.

Irrelevant.  This is looking at it from the standpoint of someone like you or I, who wants to see Bitcoin succeed in the long-term.  Someone with big pockets could just see an opportunity to make a quick buck.  Their bullishness/bearish outlook on Bitcoin doesn't matter if all they're looking to do is make a few hundred thousand and move on.

I'm not saying this is actually occurring, I have no idea and as Bitcoin's market cap (for lack of a better word) increases, it further distances itself from being the low hanging fruit by potential market manipulators.  But it shouldn't be something easily dismissed either. 

[Bitobsessed]

Think about this...A few people have enough cash to go long and they make sure they hit their mark.  Its a win-win situation.

[alan2here]

It's me, I'm doing it.

I'm buying BTC when it's cheaper before selling when it is more expensive.

[alan2here]

I see it's all gone quiet, maybe Evil mc-Nipulator is listening.

[DannyHamilton]

So somebody like Coinbase could be buying the bitcoins on mtgox, thus eating up all the ask orders and driving up the price, and then selling the coins at the new higher rate to the public, selling at the high mtgox price but not pushing the price back down?

What you are describing is called "Supply and Demand" isn't it?

MtGox has the supply, and Coinbase is providing a demand.  Isn't that how it's supposed to work?

[justusranvier]

Coinbase is frequently selling out of coins. It took me three tries today in order to actually get an order in, starting from fairly early in the morning.

[Peter Lambert]

Coinbase is frequently selling out of coins. It took me three tries today in order to actually get an order in, starting from fairly early in the morning.

I tried to do an order through them a few minutes ago, they said they already reached their daily limit. Do they operate on weekends? When does their day start?

[justusranvier]

I tried to do an order through them a few minutes ago, they said they already reached their daily limit. Do they operate on weekends? When does their day start?

I read either on their blog or in another thread that it's a rolling 24 hour limit.

[jubalix]

Like everyone I'm enjoying the Bitcoin price rampage upwards. But lets remember that it could just be a pump and dump from a shadowy figure with deep pockets. Here's the mechanism, for those unfamilliar:

1) In a stable market, The Pumper buys the market heavily.
2) As all offers are taken by the buyer, the market price rises rapidly.
3) The masses see the price move upwards and get excited.
4) The masses start buying at higher and higher prices
5) The Pumper starts selling his bitcoin to the new buyers at the new high price, making a profit
6) The Pumper sells all his coin
7) The market falls back to its original state, losses for the masses

This could be what's happening.. easy to do in such a small market.

nah look at the log graph its on the line it make overshoot a bit, but its on trend

[solex]

Like everyone I'm enjoying the Bitcoin price rampage upwards. But lets remember that it could just be a pump and dump from a shadowy figure with deep pockets. Here's the mechanism, for those unfamilliar:

1) In a stable market, The Pumper buys the market heavily.
2) As all offers are taken by the buyer, the market price rises rapidly.
3) The masses see the price move upwards and get excited.
4) The masses start buying at higher and higher prices
5) The Pumper starts selling his bitcoin to the new buyers at the new high price, making a profit
6) The Pumper sells all his coin
7) The market falls back to its original state, losses for the masses

This could be what's happening.. easy to do in such a small market.

nah look at the log graph its on the line it make overshoot a bit, but its on trend

A real-world metric of actual bitcoin usage shows an exponential increase similar to the price chart.

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-tx?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=&scale=0&address=

Only if this was level would the pump&dump theory have legs

[bonker]

A real-world metric of actual bitcoin usage shows an exponential increase similar to the price chart.

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-tx?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=&scale=0&address=

Only if this was level would the pump&dump theory have legs

That's a great post! You're right, that transaction chart is pretty good evidence that the rally is fundamental. Kind of makes me juicy for more bitcoin.

[jhansen858]

I hate to be that guy but I have to say yes, this is a bubble.  I can see no difference in the marketplace or the usability of btc now then during the previous bubble.  I'm calling another week of run up's and then a decline back to 10. 


As far as I can tell, the interest is being driven by
1) who will risk being the guy who buys the next $300,000 btc pizza?  I must save my coins until they hit my price where I can cash out.
2) merchants, want to capitalize on the free advertising that accepting bitcoins allows.  Plans to cash out as their vendors don't accept btc.
3) newbs hearing about this btc thing and that early adopters will be rewarded more then everyone else.  They want to get in, but its difficult to get your cash into the market so its slowly filtering in


The first two people are only interested in getting the cash, which is worth more then the btc to them.
The second person is only interested in doing what the first two people did.

Where is the actual value in that? 

I cant see one fundamental thing that is different now then back when the last bubble happened.  The only thing I can say for sure that BTC is good at is temporarily storing cash electronically.  But since the money isn't really going to stay in the system and will eventually be cashed out, your price is going to depend on how many people are using it at that time. 

So what is happening is, all the newbs are rushing in trying to be a part of this btc thing(just like last time).  However when the reality of how limited the economy is and the downsides to not waiting till the price to keep going up sets in, people will cash out.  As long as newbs keep rushing in, the price will remain high.  As soon as that slows, the price will drop back to a more realistic level which I'm saying is about between $5 - $10 short term. 

Long term, I still believe that the potential is huge but to assign a price based on potential and not actual results is speculation.  Right now, speculation is running high while the actual results are not there yet. 

[wareen]

I cant see one fundamental thing that is different now then back when the last bubble happened. 

Maybe I can help you there:



I'd consider the number of people interested in obtaining Bitcoin as a pretty strong fundamental property and the much slower rate of increase hints towards this number being by far more sustainable than in 2011.

[DarkBet]

This is why I think the market will be very volatile in the coming year.

[jhansen858]

Interesting but only proves that there are the same number of noobs as before.  Only this time, it took a year to suck them in instead of a month.  You still cant really do anything except buy cash.  These are the fundamentals that I'm referring to.  Nothing has changed. 

[solex]

So, by that logic the increase in the price of gold from $450 to $1700 in the last decade is a large bunch of noobs getting slowly sucked into an expensive "bubbly" dubious investment, exchangeable only for cash...

[DannyHamilton]

- snip -
You still cant really do anything except buy cash.  These are the fundamentals that I'm referring to.  Nothing has changed.  

ORLY?

• WordPress Now Accepts Bitcoin
• Reddit to accept bitcoin for premium service
• Mega update: Dotcom’s service now accepts Bitcoin
• Internet Archive To Pay Salaries Partly In Bitcoin
• Online Gambling With Bitcoins
• BitcoinStore launching
• Namecheap accepts Bitcoins

Just a few of the bigger examples.

[ryanAC]

Long term, I still believe that the potential is huge but to assign a price based on potential and not actual results is speculation.  Right now, speculation is running high while the actual results are not there yet. 

Interesting.  Isn't this one of the main ways that Wall Street judges the value stock price of a company?

[ajk]

bears look pretty fucking dumb by now its good to just ignore them or let them go silent like most of them have been

[piramida]

So, by that logic the increase in the price of gold from $450 to $1700 in the last decade is a large bunch of noobs getting slowly sucked into an expensive "bubbly" dubious investment, exchangeable only for cash...

Yep, only it took 5000 years to suck them all in

[Peter Lambert]

As far as I can tell, the interest is being driven by
1) who will risk being the guy who buys the next $300,000 btc pizza?  I must save my coins until they hit my price where I can cash out.
2) merchants, want to capitalize on the free advertising that accepting bitcoins allows.  Plans to cash out as their vendors don't accept btc.
3) newbs hearing about this btc thing and that early adopters will be rewarded more then everyone else.  They want to get in, but its difficult to get your cash into the market so its slowly filtering in

4) People who know about bitcoin and continue to invest into it.
5) Successful bitcoin businessmen building the economy and keeping their profits in bitcoin (E.G. Evoorhees, making bank off SatoshiDice but he is not converting all that profit into USD)

Between holding bitcoins and my investment in SatoshiDice, my bitcoin investments are doing a heck of a lot better than my 401k. If I have some more money to invest, I will likely choose to put it into bitcoins.

[foggyb]

6. People who have decided that USD/Euro/BP have peaked/are tanking and are cashing out.

[gmiwenht]

[deleted]

[Monster Tent]

People are panic selling USD.

[solex]

People are panic selling USD.

This is really the headline of the century:

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/02/21/after-employees-opt-to-be-paid-in-bitcoin-the-internet-archive-asks-for-donations-in-the-digital-currency/

People asking NOT to be paid in the most powerful currency in the history of the world.  Talk about a sea-change happening...

[Dargo]

No, not a pump and dump yet - need more pump first. More of a vertical ramp, then maybe...

[bonker]

No, not a pump and dump yet - need more pump first. More of a vertical ramp, then maybe...

I suppose the ideal dump time is when everyone is convinced the rally is real

[bonker]

I F**KING TOLD YOU THIS WAS A PUMP AND DUMP!!

Check out this dump... BTC is crashing!!

Kudos BTC to this address please: 1FU1EX4xCEt26rezoNaEZ1rhbqA4VVP8pq

[Peter Lambert]

I F**KING TOLD YOU THIS WAS A PUMP AND DUMP!!

Check out this dump... BTC is crashing!!

Kudos BTC to this address please: 1FU1EX4xCEt26rezoNaEZ1rhbqA4VVP8pq

Meh, it's just another bear trap. We will be back over 50 in the next couple hours.

[proudhon]

I F**KING TOLD YOU THIS WAS A PUMP AND DUMP!!

Check out this dump... BTC is crashing!!

Kudos BTC to this address please: 1FU1EX4xCEt26rezoNaEZ1rhbqA4VVP8pq

Meh, it's just another bear trap. We will be back over 50 in the next couple hours.

Doubt that very much.  Rather, I think we finally saw the top of this crazy bubble.

[solex]

I F**KING TOLD YOU THIS WAS A PUMP AND DUMP!!

Check out this dump... BTC is crashing!!

Kudos BTC to this address please: 1FU1EX4xCEt26rezoNaEZ1rhbqA4VVP8pq

Meh, it's just another bear trap. We will be back over 50 in the next couple hours.

Doubt that very much.  Rather, I think we finally saw the top of this crazy bubble.

Oh no! Another leg up. I am putting my sell orders in at $67 for this one...

[proudhon]

I F**KING TOLD YOU THIS WAS A PUMP AND DUMP!!

Check out this dump... BTC is crashing!!

Kudos BTC to this address please: 1FU1EX4xCEt26rezoNaEZ1rhbqA4VVP8pq

Meh, it's just another bear trap. We will be back over 50 in the next couple hours.

Doubt that very much.  Rather, I think we finally saw the top of this crazy bubble.

Oh no! Another leg up. I am putting my sell orders in at $67 for this one...

Good.  Luck.  Doubtful the price will get over $50 for a looooong time.

[jhansen858]

I'll just leave this here.

March 03, 2013, 08:51:34 PM
  
I hate to be that guy but I have to say yes, this is a bubble.  I can see no difference in the marketplace or the usability of btc now then during the previous bubble.  I'm calling another week of run up's and then a decline back to 10.  

Yes I know its not at 10 yet.  The decline I was referring to happens over the course of a few months.  I do hope I'm wrong but based on living through the previous bubble, I feel like I'm not.

[proudhon]

I'll just leave this here.

March 03, 2013, 08:51:34 PM
  
I hate to be that guy but I have to say yes, this is a bubble.  I can see no difference in the marketplace or the usability of btc now then during the previous bubble.  I'm calling another week of run up's and then a decline back to 10.  

Yes I know its not at 10 yet.  The decline I was referring to happens over the course of a few months.  I do hope I'm wrong but based on living through the previous bubble, I feel like I'm not.

+1

[smoothie]

I F**KING TOLD YOU THIS WAS A PUMP AND DUMP!!

Check out this dump... BTC is crashing!!

Kudos BTC to this address please: 1FU1EX4xCEt26rezoNaEZ1rhbqA4VVP8pq

Meh, it's just another bear trap. We will be back over 50 in the next couple hours.

Doubt that very much.  Rather, I think we finally saw the top of this crazy bubble.

Oh no! Another leg up. I am putting my sell orders in at $67 for this one...

Good.  Luck.  Doubtful the price will get over $50 for a looooong time.

Your problem proudhon is that your method is goal-post moving...oh no it can't go over $7, no wait $15, no wait $20, no wait $25, no wait $30, no wait $35, no wait $40, no wait $45, no wait $50....


if your track record is any indicator of anything....it is to do the opposite of your calls...lol

[alan2here]

If anything we are behind, requiring a correction upwards.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyztgMzm1g10zm2g25zl

[BlackBison]

Proudhon has been wrong for about 6 months straight and still talking the same crap... wouldn't suprise me if he was wrong for another 6 months.

[justusranvier]

It could happen...



It could also go to zero.

[solex]

Proudhon has been wrong for about 6 months straight and still talking the same crap... wouldn't suprise me if he was wrong for another 6 months.

In case anyone missed this classic OP
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=147907.0

[Peter Lambert]

It could happen...

Chart with trendline, R=0.7097

It could also go to zero.

Usually if your trendline has such a low fit it means you are using the wrong equation for your trendline. Try a logarithmic trendline, or maybe y=a+b*x^(1/2).