Pump 'n' Dump - Happening Now?

[justusranvier]

I tried to do an order through them a few minutes ago, they said they already reached their daily limit. Do they operate on weekends? When does their day start?

I read either on their blog or in another thread that it's a rolling 24 hour limit.

[jubalix]

Like everyone I'm enjoying the Bitcoin price rampage upwards. But lets remember that it could just be a pump and dump from a shadowy figure with deep pockets. Here's the mechanism, for those unfamilliar:

1) In a stable market, The Pumper buys the market heavily.
2) As all offers are taken by the buyer, the market price rises rapidly.
3) The masses see the price move upwards and get excited.
4) The masses start buying at higher and higher prices
5) The Pumper starts selling his bitcoin to the new buyers at the new high price, making a profit
6) The Pumper sells all his coin
7) The market falls back to its original state, losses for the masses

This could be what's happening.. easy to do in such a small market.

nah look at the log graph its on the line it make overshoot a bit, but its on trend

[solex]

Like everyone I'm enjoying the Bitcoin price rampage upwards. But lets remember that it could just be a pump and dump from a shadowy figure with deep pockets. Here's the mechanism, for those unfamilliar:

1) In a stable market, The Pumper buys the market heavily.
2) As all offers are taken by the buyer, the market price rises rapidly.
3) The masses see the price move upwards and get excited.
4) The masses start buying at higher and higher prices
5) The Pumper starts selling his bitcoin to the new buyers at the new high price, making a profit
6) The Pumper sells all his coin
7) The market falls back to its original state, losses for the masses

This could be what's happening.. easy to do in such a small market.

nah look at the log graph its on the line it make overshoot a bit, but its on trend

A real-world metric of actual bitcoin usage shows an exponential increase similar to the price chart.

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-tx?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=&scale=0&address=

Only if this was level would the pump&dump theory have legs

[bonker]

A real-world metric of actual bitcoin usage shows an exponential increase similar to the price chart.

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-tx?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=&scale=0&address=

Only if this was level would the pump&dump theory have legs

That's a great post! You're right, that transaction chart is pretty good evidence that the rally is fundamental. Kind of makes me juicy for more bitcoin.

[jhansen858]

I hate to be that guy but I have to say yes, this is a bubble.  I can see no difference in the marketplace or the usability of btc now then during the previous bubble.  I'm calling another week of run up's and then a decline back to 10. 


As far as I can tell, the interest is being driven by
1) who will risk being the guy who buys the next $300,000 btc pizza?  I must save my coins until they hit my price where I can cash out.
2) merchants, want to capitalize on the free advertising that accepting bitcoins allows.  Plans to cash out as their vendors don't accept btc.
3) newbs hearing about this btc thing and that early adopters will be rewarded more then everyone else.  They want to get in, but its difficult to get your cash into the market so its slowly filtering in


The first two people are only interested in getting the cash, which is worth more then the btc to them.
The second person is only interested in doing what the first two people did.

Where is the actual value in that? 

I cant see one fundamental thing that is different now then back when the last bubble happened.  The only thing I can say for sure that BTC is good at is temporarily storing cash electronically.  But since the money isn't really going to stay in the system and will eventually be cashed out, your price is going to depend on how many people are using it at that time. 

So what is happening is, all the newbs are rushing in trying to be a part of this btc thing(just like last time).  However when the reality of how limited the economy is and the downsides to not waiting till the price to keep going up sets in, people will cash out.  As long as newbs keep rushing in, the price will remain high.  As soon as that slows, the price will drop back to a more realistic level which I'm saying is about between $5 - $10 short term. 

Long term, I still believe that the potential is huge but to assign a price based on potential and not actual results is speculation.  Right now, speculation is running high while the actual results are not there yet. 

[wareen]

I cant see one fundamental thing that is different now then back when the last bubble happened. 

Maybe I can help you there:



I'd consider the number of people interested in obtaining Bitcoin as a pretty strong fundamental property and the much slower rate of increase hints towards this number being by far more sustainable than in 2011.

[DarkBet]

This is why I think the market will be very volatile in the coming year.

[jhansen858]

Interesting but only proves that there are the same number of noobs as before.  Only this time, it took a year to suck them in instead of a month.  You still cant really do anything except buy cash.  These are the fundamentals that I'm referring to.  Nothing has changed. 

[solex]

So, by that logic the increase in the price of gold from $450 to $1700 in the last decade is a large bunch of noobs getting slowly sucked into an expensive "bubbly" dubious investment, exchangeable only for cash...

[DannyHamilton]

- snip -
You still cant really do anything except buy cash.  These are the fundamentals that I'm referring to.  Nothing has changed.  

ORLY?

• WordPress Now Accepts Bitcoin
• Reddit to accept bitcoin for premium service
• Mega update: Dotcom’s service now accepts Bitcoin
• Internet Archive To Pay Salaries Partly In Bitcoin
• Online Gambling With Bitcoins
• BitcoinStore launching
• Namecheap accepts Bitcoins

Just a few of the bigger examples.

[ryanAC]

Long term, I still believe that the potential is huge but to assign a price based on potential and not actual results is speculation.  Right now, speculation is running high while the actual results are not there yet. 

Interesting.  Isn't this one of the main ways that Wall Street judges the value stock price of a company?

[ajk]

bears look pretty fucking dumb by now its good to just ignore them or let them go silent like most of them have been

[piramida]

So, by that logic the increase in the price of gold from $450 to $1700 in the last decade is a large bunch of noobs getting slowly sucked into an expensive "bubbly" dubious investment, exchangeable only for cash...

Yep, only it took 5000 years to suck them all in

[Peter Lambert]

As far as I can tell, the interest is being driven by
1) who will risk being the guy who buys the next $300,000 btc pizza?  I must save my coins until they hit my price where I can cash out.
2) merchants, want to capitalize on the free advertising that accepting bitcoins allows.  Plans to cash out as their vendors don't accept btc.
3) newbs hearing about this btc thing and that early adopters will be rewarded more then everyone else.  They want to get in, but its difficult to get your cash into the market so its slowly filtering in

4) People who know about bitcoin and continue to invest into it.
5) Successful bitcoin businessmen building the economy and keeping their profits in bitcoin (E.G. Evoorhees, making bank off SatoshiDice but he is not converting all that profit into USD)

Between holding bitcoins and my investment in SatoshiDice, my bitcoin investments are doing a heck of a lot better than my 401k. If I have some more money to invest, I will likely choose to put it into bitcoins.

[foggyb]

6. People who have decided that USD/Euro/BP have peaked/are tanking and are cashing out.

[gmiwenht]

[deleted]

[Monster Tent]

People are panic selling USD.

[solex]

People are panic selling USD.

This is really the headline of the century:

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/02/21/after-employees-opt-to-be-paid-in-bitcoin-the-internet-archive-asks-for-donations-in-the-digital-currency/

People asking NOT to be paid in the most powerful currency in the history of the world.  Talk about a sea-change happening...

[Dargo]

No, not a pump and dump yet - need more pump first. More of a vertical ramp, then maybe...

[bonker]

No, not a pump and dump yet - need more pump first. More of a vertical ramp, then maybe...

I suppose the ideal dump time is when everyone is convinced the rally is real