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Author Topic: TO NEW MINERS: trust your feelings...  (Read 8514 times)
Synaptic
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June 10, 2011, 11:36:54 PM
 #1

I see there has been a huge influx of new miners as of late, and with the recent spike in the exchange rate, it's understandable.

Lately I've been giving this a whole lot of thought, and all my gut instinct tells me that the true price of BTC for a long haul is not the astronomic $100/BTC or higher that the bigbit miners are all hoping for, but about $10/BTC.

I just urge these new guys, specifically the ones that have recently ordered $500-1000+ and ESPECIALLY $1000+ of new equipment with no prior bitcoin experience, to really just take a look at the charts and reflect on everything and trust your feelings.  Listening to the big miner's estimations based on hope is not smart.

Revisit your calculations.  You might be thinking "It's no problem, at the worst, I break even and get the hardware for free within X days."  You need to run your calculations for the next 3 months assuming MINIMUM +90% difficulty per increase, and a $10 BTC price.

Otherwise, you're likely to be in for a rude awakening.

Just look at the charts again.  Natural markets don't behave this way, trust your gut.  Don't get burned.

I cancelled my 4x 6990 rig, cause it would be foolish.  You young guys who are taking risks, please do the same.  My buddy is likely going to lose his girlfriend over BTC mining after blowing their whole savings chasing BTC rainbows...
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June 10, 2011, 11:39:41 PM
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dingus
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June 10, 2011, 11:40:32 PM
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I see there has been a huge influx of new miners as of late, and with the recent spike in the exchange rate, it's understandable.

Lately I've been giving this a whole lot of thought, and all my gut instinct tells me that the true price of BTC for a long haul is not the astronomic $100/BTC or higher that the bigbit miners are all hoping for, but about $10/BTC.

I just urge these new guys, specifically the ones that have recently ordered $500-1000+ and ESPECIALLY $1000+ of new equipment with no prior bitcoin experience, to really just take a look at the charts and reflect on everything and trust your feelings.  Listening to the big miner's estimations based on hope is not smart.

Revisit your calculations.  You might be thinking "It's no problem, at the worst, I break even and get the hardware for free within X days."  You need to run your calculations for the next 3 months assuming MINIMUM +90% difficulty per increase, and a $10 BTC price.

Otherwise, you're likely to be in for a rude awakening.

Just look at the charts again.  Natural markets don't behave this way, trust your gut.  Don't get burned.

I cancelled my 4x 6990 rig, cause it would be foolish.  You young guys who are taking risks, please do the same.  My buddy is likely going to lose his girlfriend over BTC mining after blowing their whole savings chasing BTC rainbows...

So.... don't go by what the miners say...but go by your 'gut instinct.' Got it!

ding·us/ˈdiNGgəs/
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TurdHurdur
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June 10, 2011, 11:41:12 PM
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Yeah, don't push the difficulty up I want more coins.
Chick
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June 10, 2011, 11:55:18 PM
 #5

I see there has been a huge influx of new miners as of late, and with the recent spike in the exchange rate, it's understandable.

Lately I've been giving this a whole lot of thought, and all my gut instinct tells me that the true price of BTC for a long haul is not the astronomic $100/BTC or higher that the bigbit miners are all hoping for, but about $10/BTC.

I just urge these new guys, specifically the ones that have recently ordered $500-1000+ and ESPECIALLY $1000+ of new equipment with no prior bitcoin experience, to really just take a look at the charts and reflect on everything and trust your feelings.  Listening to the big miner's estimations based on hope is not smart.

Revisit your calculations.  You might be thinking "It's no problem, at the worst, I break even and get the hardware for free within X days."  You need to run your calculations for the next 3 months assuming MINIMUM +90% difficulty per increase, and a $10 BTC price.

Otherwise, you're likely to be in for a rude awakening.

Just look at the charts again.  Natural markets don't behave this way, trust your gut.  Don't get burned.

I cancelled my 4x 6990 rig, cause it would be foolish.  You young guys who are taking risks, please do the same.  My buddy is likely going to lose his girlfriend over BTC mining after blowing their whole savings chasing BTC rainbows...

Dude! Your advice found me some rare 6990s!

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June 11, 2011, 12:14:21 AM
 #6

awesome. Go by $10/BTC when after/while correction it's still $20+ right now. then do calculation of 3 months expecting minimum 90+% jumps. I thought we're over that. -.-

I don't think u're ever going to breakeven with such figures. This is a thread to discourage people from getting into mining? or what? I mean yea natural market doesn't behave like this. But I'm quite sure with the exchange falling right now. People do think twice in getting into mining. 90+% jumps is still a way to go.

However, I'm expecting difficulty to cross 1M in 2 or 3 more adjustments if the exchange doesn't stabilize and people just jump into mining blindly. I just earn a little less I guess.

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June 11, 2011, 12:17:46 AM
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I see there has been a huge influx of new miners as of late, and with the recent spike in the exchange rate, it's understandable.

Lately I've been giving this a whole lot of thought, and all my gut instinct tells me that the true price of BTC for a long haul is not the astronomic $100/BTC or higher that the bigbit miners are all hoping for, but about $10/BTC.

I just urge these new guys, specifically the ones that have recently ordered $500-1000+ and ESPECIALLY $1000+ of new equipment with no prior bitcoin experience, to really just take a look at the charts and reflect on everything and trust your feelings.  Listening to the big miner's estimations based on hope is not smart.

Revisit your calculations.  You might be thinking "It's no problem, at the worst, I break even and get the hardware for free within X days."  You need to run your calculations for the next 3 months assuming MINIMUM +90% difficulty per increase, and a $10 BTC price.

Otherwise, you're likely to be in for a rude awakening.

Just look at the charts again.  Natural markets don't behave this way, trust your gut.  Don't get burned.

I cancelled my 4x 6990 rig, cause it would be foolish.  You young guys who are taking risks, please do the same.  My buddy is likely going to lose his girlfriend over BTC mining after blowing their whole savings chasing BTC rainbows...

A very wise decision you made if you ask me. Too bad some others don't take the difficulty into account in their calculations.
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June 11, 2011, 12:20:04 AM
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awesome. Go by $10/BTC when after/while correction it's still $20+ right now. then do calculation of 3 months expecting minimum 90+% jumps. I thought we're over that. -.-

I don't think u're ever going to breakeven with such figures. This is a thread to discourage people from getting into mining? or what? I mean yea natural market doesn't behave like this. But I'm quite sure with the exchange falling right now. People do think twice in getting into mining. 90+% jumps is still a way to go.

However, I'm expecting difficulty to cross 1M in 2 or 3 more adjustments if the exchange doesn't stabilize and people just jump into mining blindly. I just earn a little less I guess.


Can you not read? He said minimum + 90% difficulty not 90+%
chungenhung
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June 11, 2011, 12:26:43 AM
 #9

its true if you are in for the money and not the real bitcoin behind it.
and thank you for cancelling your order, your effort slows down the difficulty for everyone else.

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June 11, 2011, 12:42:07 AM
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Buying a $1000 computer you can't afford otherwise and assuming it will pay for itself with future earnings is risky for sure. I am one of those people who started doing this a few days ago, and since I already owned a computer my only bitcoin-specific investment has been a Sapphire 5830 for C$100 plus tax. I feel pretty comfortable with spending that amount to get into a potentially profitable hobby, with the side benefit that I can use the card for other things if that doesn't work out. On the other hand, spending the same amount on bitcoins directly seems risky to me and not as much fun. I think people know what level of risk they are comfortable with personally.

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rezin777
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June 11, 2011, 12:54:55 AM
 #11

My buddy is likely going to lose his girlfriend over BTC mining after blowing their whole savings chasing BTC rainbows...

ROFL. Sorry, I have no pity for someone who spends shared savings without consulting the other party, and gets dumped by the other party. And if he did consult the girl, and she said go for it, and is leaving him regardless, he is better off without her.

Anyway... "Luke, trust your feelings."

Thanks Ben, maybe I'll make out with my sister while I'm at it.
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June 11, 2011, 12:57:06 AM
 #12

Revisit your calculations.  You might be thinking "It's no problem, at the worst, I break even and get the hardware for free within X days."  You need to run your calculations for the next 3 months assuming MINIMUM +90% difficulty per increase, and a $10 BTC price.

I'm the first to convince people to project conservatively, but this is silly.

Do I recommend projecting your rig at $10/BTC? Absolutely. It needs to be profitable at that number.

Do I recommend projecting 90% difficulty increases? Absolutely (at least in the short term). It needs to be profitable at that number.

BUT, there is no way you'd see both $10 AND 90% increases. At the current price I would think we'll see 50-70% difficulty increases in the short term. At $10/BTC I think you're looking at more like 20% in the short-term and 5% in the long-term.

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June 11, 2011, 12:59:04 AM
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My buddy is likely going to lose his girlfriend over BTC mining after blowing their whole savings chasing BTC rainbows...

ROFL. Sorry, I have no pity for someone who spends shared savings without consulting the other party, and gets dumped by the other party. And if he did consult the girl, and she said go for it, and is leaving him regardless, he is better off without her.

Anyway... "Luke, trust your feelings."

Thanks Ben, maybe I'll make out with my sister while I'm at it.

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I dont like the guy. How many reasons do I have? alot.
How many reasons do I need? none.
I just dont like the guy.

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June 11, 2011, 01:09:35 AM
 #14

If the difficulty jumps 90%, then you will see a lot of people starting to drop out.  I would go until the next difficulty increase after that, but then would probably stop mining.  I don't need to run my  computers overclocked for a week to be gaining 50-100 dollars.  If the difficulty increases 90 percent AND the price of bitcoins falls, then a TON of people are going to bail.

I drink it up!
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June 11, 2011, 01:22:11 AM
 #15

Thanks for your thought but I still deciding to invest money in to BTC mining as I believe that the the difficulty level and the price level will adjust eachother in the long run. So, since I decide to invest in to mining I am not going to be a casual miner. I like this whole idea of BTC and have lots of confident about its future value. So, Yes, I am still going to buy my new rigs.

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June 11, 2011, 01:25:17 AM
 #16

If the difficulty jumps 90%, then you will see a lot of people starting to drop out.  I would go until the next difficulty increase after that, but then would probably stop mining.  I don't need to run my  computers overclocked for a week to be gaining 50-100 dollars.  If the difficulty increases 90 percent AND the price of bitcoins falls, then a TON of people are going to bail.

If many people drop out due to diminishing returns, it would just make it that much more profitable when the difficulty drops!

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June 11, 2011, 01:25:34 AM
 #17

Man, I wish I'd blown all my savings on mining rigs at the start.

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rezin777
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June 11, 2011, 01:33:42 AM
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Man, I wish I'd blown all my savings on mining rigs at the start.


I also wish that I wasn't so prudent.
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June 11, 2011, 02:13:29 AM
 #19

I'm just reinvesting my earning. I had a lot of parts laying around from upgrades in the past, and it was $100 to get a 5830 to start mining with. I almost have enough to get a 6950, which will over double my hash rate. Being a student I'm not paying for electricity, so everything I make I can spend since I've already payed down my initial investment.

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June 11, 2011, 02:51:12 AM
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lol my total investment cost to get into mining was $100. And that was to simply swap my Nvidia card for a Radeon which I will use anyway for gaming regardless whether Bitcoin survives or not. And I've already made my $100 investment back from mining. Anything else is pure profit. But going by some of the money flashed around here for super multi-quad rigs, theres obviously a lot of people out there with money to burn or a lot of idiots..or both..lol

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