first bitmain antminer S10 speculation thread (probably)

[lottery248]

so everyone is predicting with the antminer S9, right? even though S9 is ready to release, i am a bit curious about if the newer version of antminer is gonna release like S10 as mentioned. if nobody has had posted anything ever regarding the S10, then this will be the first ever thread.

if you wanna speculate with the S10, please leave some of the guess here.

i would guess about specification...

this miner will be released in the early Q2 2017, after the S9 is released.

for mining power, at least 15 Terahash/s at 150W each Terahash; because the production of chips will probably be done in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation - TSMC (at my prediction, 10 nanometer).

why 15 terahash? because the transistors are ever increasing without enlarging physically, instead, by shrinking the fabrication of silicon. and for the 150W per TH, you know, a little amount of power can run a lot of things nowadays, and unlike 32 or even 16 nm.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of.

indeed outlook will just like S4, i am not sure if S6/8 was ever released, if not released, then this thread is predicting if bitmain is bringing the S series ending with even number.

for the influence? this kind of miner will let the bitcoin network more fierce and more kind of altcoin will be gone popular as more people gets to mine, the bitcoin price will more likely soar up at least $1000. this kind of miner would gone insane in demand until a newer miner which could ever defeat this vorpal.

i am not sure if i am getting off-topic, but let's see what you guys think to this speculation.

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[ZedZedNova]

for mining power, at least 15 Terahash/s at 150W each Terahash; because the production of chips will probably be done in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation - TSMC (at my prediction, 10 nanometer).

if we're gonna speculate about a year from now, and call for 10nm, then I think 150J/TH is too much. Let's make some progress and expect 100J/TH or hey, let's expect 75J/TH.

75J/TH would make a 5TH/s home miner possible without melting the lamp cord extension cord that runs under the carpet to get to the miner.

To infinity and beyond!

Cheers,

- zed

[QuintLeo]

My prediction is that if there is an S10, it will be a MEGA MONSTER miner - something on the order of A2 Terminator sized, or more likely 5-6U rackmount, with 60+TH and multiple power supplies needed to run it.

And it won't show up before late winter 2017.

[ibh98]

Not sure about this topic. Trying to understand what people are saying.

[philipma1957]

Not sure about this topic. Trying to understand what people are saying.

It is a bit tongue in cheek or dry humor. Just like my thread on the s-11.

[DOPECOINRULES]

My professor and  a few of the students believe we have put togther a machine that can actually hash out 1.5 zeta hash

[Goms]

Bitmain does not have a high demand for S9, if they are thinking of bringing in an S10, they had better sell at a reasonable price. Miners are not making profit like before, buying an expensive rig is the last thing they want to do.

[leowonderful]

Bitmain's already skipped two rackmount miners - the S6 and S8; I really don't think we'll ever see a return of the monster racks that the S2 and S4 were ever again. They were never in very high demand, and the S3 and S5 were simply better options than the racks for the most part. -LN miners have probably been the replacement for the racks.

[Xircom]

I do not see an 10nm or and 8nm as IBM has developed in near future, not even in late 2017. Problem is the further down we go in nm, the less suppliers is possible.
So, too many big players will fill the orderbooks for other industries like the mining industry, so the S9`s will be here for quite some time. Perhaps they will release a 30TH miner that's able to run from 2 bitmain PSU´s or 1 IBM Bladecenter PSU, but a new miner like an S10 or an S11 is way out in the future. The competition on semiconductor industries has narrowed down with the 16nm and it will be even more difficult with 10 or 8nm.

Soon Bitmain will realize this problem and will either be forced to make the chips them self...not going to happen or they will simply stop selling to the public.
I guess the last scenario is the most possible one.

[HyperMega]

10nm is not so far!

TSMC and Samsung already did several 10nm tape-outs (e.g. smartphone processors of Qualcomm and Mediatek). These kind of technology will be pretty sure part of the next gen smartphones in 2017.

Globalfoundries bought IBM's microelectronic manufacturing business completely in 2015. GF/IBM skips 10nm and goes directly to 7nm, but there will be for sure no 7nm products in 2017.

Last potential foundry player (in this league) is Intel. They are probably ahead of TSMC and Samsung, but very picky with respect of selecting customers.

Meanwhile Bitmain is a “midsize” TSMC customer. If they want, they probably can get a 10nm production slot. But why should they invest another $10M NRE if nobody is challenging them at 16nm?
Anyway I'm sure that Bitmain has already access to the TSMC 10nm technology and is designing the next gen ASIC. So they will go into production as soon as they need to.

[leowonderful]

10nm is not so far!

TSMC and Samsung already did several 10nm tape-outs (e.g. smartphone processors of Qualcomm and Mediatek). These kind of technology will be pretty sure part of the next gen smartphones in 2017.

Globalfoundries bought IBM's microelectronic manufacturing business completely in 2015. GF/IBM skips 10nm and goes directly to 7nm, but there will be for sure no 7nm products in 2017.

Last potential foundry player (in this league) is Intel. They are probably ahead of TSMC and Samsung, but very picky with respect of selecting customers.

Meanwhile Bitmain is a “midsize” TSMC customer. If they want, they probably can get a 10nm production slot. But why should they invest another $10M NRE if nobody is challenging them at 16nm?
Anyway I'm sure that Bitmain has already access to the TSMC 10nm technology and is designing the next gen ASIC. So they will go into production as soon as they need to.

Well, Avalon's supposedly going to make a 16NM miner sooner or later, the Avalon 7. Not sure if that's true or not, but if Avalon actually make a miner capable of rivalling the S9, they might start researching the 10NM tech in hopes of making a more efficient miner. Bitfury's also purported to be making a 16nm miner, although those things cost your soul to buy. ASIC technology will get to 10nm sooner or later, but the 16NM process is still young and maturing; chips can only get more efficient even in the same gen.

[HyperMega]

Well, Avalon's supposedly going to make a 16NM miner sooner or later, the Avalon 7. Not sure if that's true or not, but if Avalon actually make a miner capable of rivalling the S9, they might start researching the 10NM tech in hopes of making a more efficient miner. Bitfury's also purported to be making a 16nm miner, although those things cost your soul to buy. ASIC technology will get to 10nm sooner or later, but the 16NM process is still young and maturing; chips can only get more efficient even in the same gen.

If that is the final truth , also Qualcomm and Mediatek would not go for 10nm so early for their smartphone processors. They are doing this because they are expecting more performance and better efficiency (longer battery run time) at lower production costs (ideally). This drives the semiconductor industry since 50 years.

You will get for sure higher performance and better efficiency at 10nm compared to 16nm. But that the production costs are reduced in parallel is very questionable. This good old Moore's Law effect disappeared already at the 28nm to 16nm transition.
I bet, that Bitmain pays more for the pure 16nm silicon than they did for 28nm normalized to a TH/s.
And a Bitcoin ASIC is much more sensitive to production costs than a smartphone processor, especially if you have free or almost free power.

[lemmyK]

so everyone is predicting with the antminer S9, right? even though S9 is ready to release, i am a bit curious about if the newer version of antminer is gonna release like S10 as mentioned. if nobody has had posted anything ever regarding the S10, then this will be the first ever thread.

if you wanna speculate with the S10, please leave some of the guess here.

i would guess about specification...

this miner will be released in the early Q2 2017, after the S9 is released.

for mining power, at least 15 Terahash/s at 150W each Terahash; because the production of chips will probably be done in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation - TSMC (at my prediction, 10 nanometer).

why 15 terahash? because the transistors are ever increasing without enlarging physically, instead, by shrinking the fabrication of silicon. and for the 150W per TH, you know, a little amount of power can run a lot of things nowadays, and unlike 32 or even 16 nm.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of.

indeed outlook will just like S4, i am not sure if S6/8 was ever released, if not released, then this thread is predicting if bitmain is bringing the S series ending with even number.

for the influence? this kind of miner will let the bitcoin network more fierce and more kind of altcoin will be gone popular as more people gets to mine, the bitcoin price will more likely soar up at least $1000. this kind of miner would gone insane in demand until a newer miner which could ever defeat this vorpal.

i am not sure if i am getting off-topic, but let's see what you guys think to this speculation.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of--- Do not forget to pay some of the license fees for USB and 10 gigabytes is unnecessary and expensive. It would be unnecessarily expensive already so expensive machines

[lemmyK]

ASIC on 16 and 10 nm will be sensitive to production. and too expensive. and do not forget to RMA case...bad with big machines..
 Bitmain avoid making large machine. for it is better to have smaller machines, and also because of the efficiency and recoveries of. and particularly money .
but the current situation calls already for bigger machines of higher performance in th/s becouse ROI..... price for BT is about 650, and that's not what we expected after halving.
If wants bitmain $ 2,000 per miner that must give at least 20 th/s. NOW

[QuintLeo]

so everyone is predicting with the antminer S9, right? even though S9 is ready to release, i am a bit curious about if the newer version of antminer is gonna release like S10 as mentioned. if nobody has had posted anything ever regarding the S10, then this will be the first ever thread.

if you wanna speculate with the S10, please leave some of the guess here.

i would guess about specification...

this miner will be released in the early Q2 2017, after the S9 is released.

for mining power, at least 15 Terahash/s at 150W each Terahash; because the production of chips will probably be done in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation - TSMC (at my prediction, 10 nanometer).

why 15 terahash? because the transistors are ever increasing without enlarging physically, instead, by shrinking the fabrication of silicon. and for the 150W per TH, you know, a little amount of power can run a lot of things nowadays, and unlike 32 or even 16 nm.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of.

indeed outlook will just like S4, i am not sure if S6/8 was ever released, if not released, then this thread is predicting if bitmain is bringing the S series ending with even number.

for the influence? this kind of miner will let the bitcoin network more fierce and more kind of altcoin will be gone popular as more people gets to mine, the bitcoin price will more likely soar up at least $1000. this kind of miner would gone insane in demand until a newer miner which could ever defeat this vorpal.

i am not sure if i am getting off-topic, but let's see what you guys think to this speculation.

for the data port, i think either USB 3.1 or ethernet 10Gbit would be more reasonable, mainly because the convenience for the hobbyist, or for the noobs; for the ethernet, explicitly all of them consists of--- Do not forget to pay some of the license fees for USB and 10 gigabytes is unnecessary and expensive. It would be unnecessarily expensive already so expensive machines

 Serious overkill. A 10MBit port will handle ANY miner for the forseeable future.
 1 Gigabit probably would be the installation, as those are common cheap and the norm any more.

 USB for a self-contained miner is dumb.
 Bitmain seems to have dropped the concept entirely since the U3, thank goodness!

[Big_swifty]

My professor and  a few of the students believe we have put togther a machine that can actually hash out 1.5 zeta hash

I need to know more......please advise if you dream a lot or there is some substance to your belief.

[Sandal_Hat]

So, anymore speculation on this? Anyone hear anything new?

[fanatic26]

No. This is one of those junk threads started by someone that doesnt understand how the industry works.

[philipma1957]

So, anymore speculation on this? Anyone hear anything new?

Why on earth would bitmain want to kill off their s-7 cloud mining on hashnest.

The answer is they don't and we will not see an s10 until hashnest s-7 goes to the red rather then firmly in the black.

At the monment the s-7 is at 45-50 percent power cost

Ie firmly in the black .

When the s-7. Is at 95 percent power cost they would look to upgrade to the s-10

[QuintLeo]

I seriously doubt we will EVER see an S10 model - Bitmain seems to have given up on rack-mount "huge power consumption" miner designs since their small-size single-tube type designs are ALREADY pushing so much power.

 S-11 will show up probably 6 months to a year after the "next semiconductor node" hits full production - be it 7nm or 10nm - as Bitmain isn't big enough to break into the early days and too much of the production of GF/TSMC/Samsung is earmarked to the BIG BOYS like Samsung, Apple, AMD, Nvidia, and IBM.