first bitmain antminer S10 speculation thread (probably)

[FUKT]

My professor and  a few of the students believe we have put togther a machine that can actually hash out 1.5 zeta hash

Bring it in! I'll give you 10 bucks for it!

[QuintLeo]

Bitmain does not have a high demand for S9, if they are thinking of bringing in an S10, they had better sell at a reasonable price. Miners are not making profit like before, buying an expensive rig is the last thing they want to do.

 They may not have AS HIGH of demand for the S9 as they did in the first 3 months, but they STILL sell out every batch in a day or two when they release one.
 Sure seems like the demand is still high.

[FUKT]

Sure, but competitors will not sleep forever (there are already quite a few good ASICs for altcoins) and may overtake the market of bitcoin miners, should they release a more powerful and economical miner for BTC sooner than Bitmain.

[philipma1957]

Sure, but competitors will not sleep forever (there are already quite a few good ASICs for altcoins) and may overtake the market of bitcoin miners, should they release a more powerful and economical miner for BTC sooner than Bitmain.

Not happening.

It simply is easier to do other coins then btc/sha 256

Then trade for btc.

So asic builders will target other coins.

BTC  is a big pile of money  in a wallet that can be 'mined' by putting in a password.

What do I mean?  16 mill  + coins are in wallets just under 5 million coins are in the 'ground'

So I mine ltc cheap and trade for btc
I mine x11 cheap and trade for btc

I have No incentive to mine btc at a high price.


look at LTC  only 5%  of coins are lost to maintenance

[TheYankeesWin!]

So why build a better then an s-9  which is 20%  lost to power/maintenance

When the L3 is way better then the s-9 it is 5% lost to power/maintenance.

[philipma1957]

@ the yankees

yep..   I would look to make an asic better then the L3

as in terms of waste   the L3 is 4x better then the s-9

sha-256  is flatlined  for efficiency   at close to .11 watts a gh

with no major improvement.

This is good as BTC may just get more valuable as time goes on.


I see  much more alt coin growth to come.

the industry over all is over 124 billion

 I see  300 billion  in under 5 years.

[QuintLeo]

Sure, but competitors will not sleep forever (there are already quite a few good ASICs for altcoins) and may overtake the market of bitcoin miners, should they release a more powerful and economical miner for BTC sooner than Bitmain.

 The only folks I can see managing that would be BitFury (their chip WAS in production before Bitmain's was on the current node, but Bitfury sells to BIG farms and manufacturers only so it ended up under the radar for quite a while).

 Nobody else to date has managed to MATCH the S9 much less beat it - and I don't see any significant probability of that happening on the next node (very long shot if Intel, AMD, Samsung, or NVidia decided to enter the ASIC miner business, but I don't think that's likely as it's such a SMALL business compared to what any of those folks do NOW).



 The reason the L3+ isn't as close to saturation as the S9 is threefold.

 (1) S9 has been getting sold a LOT longer, there are a TON more of them in use.
 (2) The S9 has competition (Caanan/Avalon 721/741, whatever BW.COM has been using internally, Bitfury) that is fairly CLOSE to it's efficiency that has been selling for almost a year now (bit over perhaps) and HELPING it saturate the Bitcoin market.
 (3) The price rise of Litecoin during the last 4 months is over 10 to 1 - the comparable price rise of Bitcoin on a 10 to 1 ratio needed most of the last *2 years*, which has allowed a lot more time for folks to buy the hashrate up to the same ballpark as the price has gone up.

[mattpatt007]

Does anyone know or could point in the direction how these processes even work?... people like Nebulous Inc. who are still "in design phase" of the Obelisk claim to have a US ASIC manufacturer, its kinda hard to compete with CN semiconductors? Noo?

[QuintLeo]

Does anyone know or could point in the direction how these processes even work?... people like Nebulous Inc. who are still "in design phase" of the Obelisk claim to have a US ASIC manufacturer, its kinda hard to compete with CN semiconductors? Noo?

 Global Foundries 14nm foundry is in New York State, it used to be an IBM foundry.
 They also have the ex-AMD foundry in Germany (Dresden I think?).

 Intel has at least one foundry in the US, Austin I think?

 There are NO foundries on the 14/16nm node in China that I am aware of, TSMC is in TAIWAN not in CHINA.

 Samsung has their 14nm foundry somewhere in Korea.



 The bulk of MINER manufacturing is done in China, but not the ASIC chips themselves.

[FUKT]

I mine ltc cheap and trade for btc. I mine x11 cheap and trade for btc. I have No incentive to mine btc at a high price.

Neither do I. What about not mining, but buying those altcoins instead of buying equipment for their mining?

[QuintLeo]

I mine ltc cheap and trade for btc. I mine x11 cheap and trade for btc. I have No incentive to mine btc at a high price.

Neither do I. What about not mining, but buying those altcoins instead of buying equipment for their mining?

 Because if you set it up right, positive income is a LOT more certain from mining than from the very high risk of speculating.

 Don't take the last 5 months as "the norm", you have to look at more like the last 5 YEARS and the roller coaster pretty much all cryptocoins have been on.

[philipma1957]

I mine ltc cheap and trade for btc. I mine x11 cheap and trade for btc. I have No incentive to mine btc at a high price.

Neither do I. What about not mining, but buying those altcoins instead of buying equipment for their mining?

 Because if you set it up right, positive income is a LOT more certain from mining than from the very high risk of speculating.

 Don't take the last 5 months as "the norm", you have to look at more like the last 5 YEARS and the roller coaster pretty much all cryptocoins have been on.

Power control cost.
Getting gear at decent prices

Lastly taking care of the gear so it lasts a long time.

If you can do the three above you can stand a chance to make money mining.

I have power deals with a few people that allow me to mine at profits.

And now most gear has stopped improving as it is smaller chipped

[FUKT]

I was talking about a long time investment in altcoins with money intended for buying new mining equipment or a daily speculations on exchanges. As you know, during the last months some alts showed much greater return than BTC. I just wanted to know what experience had others in long term investing in a basket of altcoins - was it positive or not. I get that middle term investment (like a few months) in crypto currencies can get you hurt.

[lexele]

One big problem is you cannot foresee witch altcoin will skyrocket to the moon...
Besides, you have to pick a low to enter the market for it not to be too risky.
The middle approach is to mine AND to buy altcoin you think wil do great...

[philipma1957]

I was talking about a long time investment in altcoins with money intended for buying new mining equipment or a daily speculations on exchanges. As you know, during the last months some alts showed much greater return than BTC. I just wanted to know what experience had others in long term investing in a basket of altcoins - was it positive or not. I get that middle term investment (like a few months) in crypto currencies can get you hurt.

There are 800 coins to pick from.

And there are delisted coins.

I can find a list of every current coin.

But to consider picking 50 small value coins spending 100 usd on each. You need to find the list of delisted coins to fully know the odds of a three year move.

Ie. If there are 25 delisted coins and 800 current coins your idea may work.

But if there are hundreds of dead delisted coins your idea may be bad.


That is a very simple analysis

[Greg M]

There will never be a "S10". It will most likely be called S11 as their other models have been S1, S3, S5, S7, S9, etc. Although I don't expect a 10 nm chip anytime soon maybe they will increase the current chips efficiency slightly and jam a couple more hashing boards in there.

[leowonderful]

There will never be a "S10". It will most likely be called S11 as their other models have been S1, S3, S5, S7, S9, etc. Although I don't expect a 10 nm chip anytime soon maybe they will increase the current chips efficiency slightly and jam a couple more hashing boards in there.

If it's a small increase it's probably not even worth it for Bitmain to create a new optimized chip at all with their low electrical rates and all. They're likely branching into LTC and X11 just to keep people interested in their brand.

[Khurram Bin Kamal]

Bitmain purchases chips from TSMC foundry Taiwan and by the number of miner batch release dates now bitmain have become one of the major client of TSMC and they to  are taking mining segment very seriously
If you look at TSMC website for the 7 nm nodes segment they have divided that into 2 stratums one for mobile chips and the other for high computing power chips so they are taking mining segment seriously.
Now for the speed for the new model of S9++ or S11 (whatever they name it) we have to calculate the computing power for chips of newer nodes according to TSMC website they have started the tape out of nm 7 nodes in April and by the end of this year they will supply these 7 nm FinFET nodes to more than 10 customers and surely Bitmain is one of them.
Now come to speed of that 7nm miner we know that S9 speed is 14 ths with power consumption of 1372 watts
By looking at the 10 nm nodes efficiency according to TSMC website they are 15 % faster and consumes 35% less power so for a 1300 watt miner the speed would be 14×1.15×1.35 =21.73 Terahash for around 1372 watt miner

And if bitmain decides to skip 10 nm nodes and go straight for 7 nm nodes which I personally think they are planning and to raise funds for that bitmain is also issuing an IPO of 200 million $ in USA the speed of that ultra fast miner would be again according to TSMC website the 7nm nodes are 20% faster than 10 nm nodes and consumes 40% less power so the speed of that miner will be 21.73× 1.2 ×1.4 =36.50 Terahash and that to hypothetically

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Bitmain purchases chips from TSMC foundry Taiwan and by the number of miner batch release dates now bitmain have become one of the major client of TSMC and they to  are taking mining segment very seriously
<snipped hilariously wild and uninformed speculation>

You obviously have absolutely no ties to the semiconductor mfg industry.

Ja Bitmain seems to make 'a lot' of miners but at only a couple thousand or so of them per batch even with 189 chips per-miner they are still strictly a boutique customer to TSMC. Apple, AMD and the other REAL major customers are each getting 10's to 100's of millions of chips per-month. Compared to that income from miner chips is pocket change.

As for when lower node miner chips will show up... Maybe mid-late next year if and that is a HUGE 'if' there is a need for it. These low nodes are geared to low-power devices where the effects of temps are manageable. You think running 16nm ASIC's at high power density is iffy -- forget about it at even lower nodes.

[Khurram Bin Kamal]

Thanks for your reply I didn't said that bitmain is a bigger customer than APPLE AMD or NVIDIA of TSMC and for your information AMD fabricates it's chips from global foundry and not from TSMC Taiwan.
TSMC is running at 65 % capacity and they are taking mining segment seriously and for your information according to TSMC website they have stratified their chip fabrication into 2 divisions one is for mobile phones and the other for high computing power chips.

I think you know nothing about Bitmain mining machines and you are such a novice to mining machine segment and was not accepting this type of statement from a legendary member that bitmain only manufactures a couple of thousand miners each batch WHAT A JOKE
Bitmain has currently 3 active models S9,L3+ and D3  and if you look at bitmain Chinese website and have a common sense to use a Google translator you will know that in each batch their are around 5000 miners and with 3 to 4 batch released every month for each batch it makes around 45000 miners only for Chinese market and the same quantity  for international market it make around 80k to 90k miners and if you multiply it by 189 and 288 chips for some models you will get a hell lot a figure not as big as APPLE but a substantial number.