I just don't get it.

[oakpacific]

i'm much more interested in comparing Bitcoin asymptotic growth to this:

Does this graph mean what I think it does. If it does then it's much worse than I thought and my opinion wasn't that conservative to begin with ... wtf

(So I am asking have the amount of dollars in circulation tripled since 2008? :|)

it was $800B back then.  it's almost quadrupled since.

Where do you think Bitcoin is in this curve?

Bitcoin is the vertical part; except you need to color it green.

Price quadrupling in two years? Not satisified.

[cypherdoc]

i'm much more interested in comparing Bitcoin asymptotic growth to this:

Does this graph mean what I think it does. If it does then it's much worse than I thought and my opinion wasn't that conservative to begin with ... wtf

(So I am asking have the amount of dollars in circulation tripled since 2008? :|)

it was $800B back then.  it's almost quadrupled since.

Where do you think Bitcoin is in this curve?

Bitcoin is the vertical part; except you need to color it green.

Price quadrupling in two years? Not satisified.

ok, seriously.  if this were Bitcoin, i'd say we're around 1970.

[molecular]

Bitcoin are the future for peoples.. more and more peoples are realizing it.

Fiat are so much debase, and it's only the begining of the realm where fiat are heading to toilet paper use..

World economies are in a so bad shape.. The future is not bright at all..

It took me more than a year to realize how much this thing (bitcoin) is great.  Under 100$ it really undervaluated.. IMO, it will stabilize well over 1000$ !
Before realizing how powerfull bitcoins are, I've sold more than 5000 under a dollar.

This is not yet a bubble, look at all-time data log chart, you will see that we are'nt even entering in the bubble territory.  

Bitoin are to money, what's email are to regular post and even a lot more.. welcome to the future..

When you'll pay 200$ for a week of potatoes, you'll understand.. those who are pilling fiat for their old days will regret so much !

DoomDumas, I love your posts. Not only because we think alike and you're ultra-bull, but also because of your funny-as-hell english mistakes.

I want this part on a T-Shirt:

FIAT
are so much
debase
                   DoomDumas
                       bitcointalk
                        March '13

[creativex]

lol

ALL YOUR DEBASE ARE BELONG TO US!

[xxjs]

Thanks for that, it's the velocity of money that is often overlooked. The fed is out of tools and is really painted into a corner at this point.

Money velocity is some magic quantity someone has cooked up just to make some stupid formula look more likely.

Lets analyze it. Peter has a big house, because he has a family and so on, but Paul has only a small house plus some money in the bank. Something happens, Peter looses his family, and Paul reconsiders, Peter sells the big house and now has some money. Ok the money has moved. Something happens again, Peter buys back the big house, Paul reconsiders again and now sits with most of the money. The money has moved again, high velocity. But compared to the starting situation, nothing has changed. Therefore, high money velocity only means that people change their value scales more often.

[creativex]

Fascinating. Now what if Peter is removed and replaced with the FRBNY? How quickly is that new monopoly money that benji is cooking up being absorbed into the economy? Do you think Paul can help with that? What if he takes out a loan to buy a house? If banks aren't lending and/or people aren't borrowing while money(debt) is being destroyed through credit defaults then where's the mechanism that creates debt greater than previous debt? Cash for clunkers v2.0 anyone?

What you're suggesting is that either helicopter ben did not produce all those dollars seen in the chart above AND he's lying when he says he's printing(QE infinity) or those dollars have not yet trickled down to the peasants in the street yet...a function of velocity. It's this velocity factor that allows for both inflation and deflation to exist simultaneously. The economy of a country as large as the US is a complicated animal.

[xxjs]

Why does the price of bitcoin keep going up???

I'm pissed now that I sold all of mine.

It's gone up nearly $8 since I jumped ship.

I think about buying back in but I keep thinking it it is a high risk, and hard to make a decent profit at this price... Could it really get into the $60+ range?

I find it hard to believe.

So seriously... What is it?

What are the factors at play here.. Help me make an informed decision.

I just can't figure this thing out.

I try again, starting over.

First, bitcoin is not capital, it is not a company, it is money. If you have a good idea, you might get together with some friends, invest, make a good business. After you succeeded, you will have the choice to continue under competition, or sell out. With bitcoin, think of it as you have not yet decided what to invest in, and when you sell out, think that you go back to bitcoin.

Think not of 40 USD per bitcoin, think of 0.025 BTC per dollar. Will you go into dollar, stay for a year, then pull out? What about yen, will you go into yen now, stay there a year then sell out? The relevant central bank has literally said that they will do whatever it takes to reduce the value of the yen, and we know they can find a way. So is it smart to go into yen now?

Why do we want to think about bitcoin this apparently backwards way? Because we think bitcoins are better money, they will keep their value, and are easy to get rid of for other valueable things when you want. When people become aware of this, demand for bitcoins will increase. Nobody knows how many people will like bitcoins, and how many each of them will like to hold. Two months salary, maybe more, since it will keep its value.

This situation is obviously not the case now, but some people with foresight, anticipating some value in the future, push the price upwards now.

Can the price overshoot its natural level? Yes of course, but there are also tons of naysayers out there, keeping the optimists in check.

[piramida]

xxjs yes many people still look at bitcoin as some very risky HYIP, so they deserve to be punished by low profits or losses, as they sell low buy high.

As for current naysayers, somehow I feel we lost all of them during the stop at $30 level. They don't have any substantial coins any longer. So now the price will grow until the new breed of naysayers decides it is too high too soon and they should get off.

[mp420]

It will keep going up until the growth dies out. And then it'll come down. The trick is to know when that happens. I figure it's smarter to only sell after it's already come down somewhat than to try to anticipate the peak.

My gut feeling is that the peak will be higher than $50 but lower than $300. Time will tell. After the peak we might come down back to single digits even.

If I had unwisely gotten out of bitcoin I sure as hell wouldn't be buying now, but I'd try to catch the next bottom. Whenever and at whatever price level that might be.

[xxjs]

Fascinating. Now what if Peter is removed and replaced with the FRBNY? How quickly is that new monopoly money that benji is cooking up being absorbed into the economy? Do you think Paul can help with that? What if he takes out a loan to buy a house? If banks aren't lending and/or people aren't borrowing while money(debt) is being destroyed through credit defaults then where's the mechanism that creates debt greater than previous debt? Cash for clunkers v2.0 anyone?

What you're suggesting is that either helicopter ben did not produce all those dollars seen in the chart above AND he's lying when he says he's printing(QE infinity) or those dollars have not yet trickled down to the peasants in the street yet...a function of velocity. It's this velocity factor that allows for both inflation and deflation to exist simultaneously. The economy of a country as large as the US is a complicated animal.

You gulp up lots of newspeak here, confusing every topic you touch, and use it to argue that I can not understand economy? If you think that inflation and deflation can exist simultaneously, does that make you a great economist?

[xxjs]

xxjs yes many people still look at bitcoin as some very risky HYIP, so they deserve to be punished by low profits or losses, as they sell low buy high.

As for current naysayers, somehow I feel we lost all of them during the stop at $30 level. They don't have any substantial coins any longer. So now the price will grow until the new breed of naysayers decides it is too high too soon and they should get off.

Yes that is one thing I like about entrepreneuring, when they consistently take wrong decisions, they are dethroned from their entrepreneur position and fall back into the pool of wage receivers.

[xxjs]

It will keep going up until the growth dies out. And then it'll come down. The trick is to know when that happens. I figure it's smarter to only sell after it's already come down somewhat than to try to anticipate the peak.

My gut feeling is that the peak will be higher than $50 but lower than $300. Time will tell. After the peak we might come down back to single digits even.

If I had unwisely gotten out of bitcoin I sure as hell wouldn't be buying now, but I'd try to catch the next bottom. Whenever and at whatever price level that might be.

It does not have to go down. It can stay on some level and be a useful and stable type of money. If the speculators are wrong, the price may overshoot before it settles. In the stable end-situation, hoarding for profit is not sustainable. Owning bitcoins in that stage does not produce profit or interest.

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

My thoughts:

1) People with Bitcoins are not selling cause they know/think the price will get much higher in a couple of years.
2) This causes a price rise since the ammount of sellers is decreasing if the price is in a rally.
3) Cause of this rally and the good news more and more people want to jump in the boat, so the bids increase.
4) Cause the price is based on bid/ask (which gets out of balance) the price rises which throws us back at point 1 of this summary and explaining this rally.

[xxjs]

My thoughts:

1) People with Bitcoins are not selling cause they know/think the price will get much higher in a couple of years.
2) This causes a price rise since the ammount of sellers is decreasing if the price is in a rally.
3) Cause of this rally and the good news more and more people want to jump in the boat, so the bids increase.
4) Cause the price is based on bid/ask (which gets out of balance) the price rises which throws us back at point 1 of this summary and explaining this rally.

This is correct. It will continue until the market for bitcoins is saturated, then there will be pressure downwards because speculative gain is no more possible. Noone knows for sure when this will happen.

[creativex]

Fascinating. Now what if Peter is removed and replaced with the FRBNY? How quickly is that new monopoly money that benji is cooking up being absorbed into the economy? Do you think Paul can help with that? What if he takes out a loan to buy a house? If banks aren't lending and/or people aren't borrowing while money(debt) is being destroyed through credit defaults then where's the mechanism that creates debt greater than previous debt? Cash for clunkers v2.0 anyone?

What you're suggesting is that either helicopter ben did not produce all those dollars seen in the chart above AND he's lying when he says he's printing(QE infinity) or those dollars have not yet trickled down to the peasants in the street yet...a function of velocity. It's this velocity factor that allows for both inflation and deflation to exist simultaneously. The economy of a country as large as the US is a complicated animal.

You gulp up lots of newspeak here, confusing every topic you touch, and use it to argue that I can not understand economy? If you think that inflation and deflation can exist simultaneously, does that make you a great economist?

Yeah your peter & paul story makes it very clear how firmly you grasp economic theory. Sorry to involve complex concepts...like credit. Clearly that doesn't exist either as otherwise peter or paul would've borrowed in your all encompassing epic.

[xxjs]

Fascinating. Now what if Peter is removed and replaced with the FRBNY? How quickly is that new monopoly money that benji is cooking up being absorbed into the economy? Do you think Paul can help with that? What if he takes out a loan to buy a house? If banks aren't lending and/or people aren't borrowing while money(debt) is being destroyed through credit defaults then where's the mechanism that creates debt greater than previous debt? Cash for clunkers v2.0 anyone?

What you're suggesting is that either helicopter ben did not produce all those dollars seen in the chart above AND he's lying when he says he's printing(QE infinity) or those dollars have not yet trickled down to the peasants in the street yet...a function of velocity. It's this velocity factor that allows for both inflation and deflation to exist simultaneously. The economy of a country as large as the US is a complicated animal.

You gulp up lots of newspeak here, confusing every topic you touch, and use it to argue that I can not understand economy? If you think that inflation and deflation can exist simultaneously, does that make you a great economist?

Yeah your peter & paul story makes it very clear how firmly you grasp economic theory. Sorry to involve complex concepts...like credit. Clearly that doesn't exist either as otherwise peter or paul would've borrowed in your all encompassing epic.

The concept under discussion here is money velocity. I claim that this concept only tells the speed at which people change their minds, and it is not useful to decide the price of money. Only the number of money available, and the public's preferences for holding money decides the price of money.

[creativex]

Fascinating. Now what if Peter is removed and replaced with the FRBNY? How quickly is that new monopoly money that benji is cooking up being absorbed into the economy? Do you think Paul can help with that? What if he takes out a loan to buy a house? If banks aren't lending and/or people aren't borrowing while money(debt) is being destroyed through credit defaults then where's the mechanism that creates debt greater than previous debt? Cash for clunkers v2.0 anyone?

What you're suggesting is that either helicopter ben did not produce all those dollars seen in the chart above AND he's lying when he says he's printing(QE infinity) or those dollars have not yet trickled down to the peasants in the street yet...a function of velocity. It's this velocity factor that allows for both inflation and deflation to exist simultaneously. The economy of a country as large as the US is a complicated animal.

You gulp up lots of newspeak here, confusing every topic you touch, and use it to argue that I can not understand economy? If you think that inflation and deflation can exist simultaneously, does that make you a great economist?

Yeah your peter & paul story makes it very clear how firmly you grasp economic theory. Sorry to involve complex concepts...like credit. Clearly that doesn't exist either as otherwise peter or paul would've borrowed in your all encompassing epic.

The concept under discussion here is money velocity. I claim that this concept only tells the speed at which people change their minds, and it is not useful to decide the price of money. Only the number of money available, and the public's preferences for holding money decides the price of money.

IOW interest rates have zero bearing on the price of money. OKIE DOKE. We're done here.

[lebing]

lol

ALL YOUR DEBASE ARE BELONG TO US!

You win all of the internets lol

[molecular]

xxjs yes many people still look at bitcoin as some very risky HYIP, so they deserve to be punished by low profits or losses, as they sell low buy high.

As for current naysayers, somehow I feel we lost all of them during the stop at $30 level. They don't have any substantial coins any longer. So now the price will grow until the new breed of naysayers decides it is too high too soon and they should get off.

piramida, you repeatedly surprise me with nice fore-/insights.

[creativex]

lol

ALL YOUR DEBASE ARE BELONG TO US!

You win all of the internets lol

Yay! My very own interwebz!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fvTxv46ano