Chain-Bet.com | On Chain | No KYC | 15x Win | Provably Fair | Since 2016

[CrazyJoker]

We have experimentally raised the Player vs House multiplying factor from 4x to 8x. Any further changes will be notified here. Thank you everyone for showing interest in this new game.

Great. Just placed a bet of 0.005 BTC on 7.

https://blockchain.info/tx/9daf07a1369d33eb080ea6b242f0b61f8472845ab39b22c00361374216944f6b

You lost it man. This is your confirmation block hash...

000000000000000004a3321a40ea3bccdc9f1c445e0bf185539f071994079982

Better luck next time.

[JasonXG]

By my calculation, if I bet against the house, I get 400% return which is really too good but the odds are only 6.25% which is kind of... eh.
I don't know if this is true so please do clarify.

I was also thinking that. Since dice gives you almost 200% with a 50% that means 400% is 25% win. Odds are 4x worse then dice.

[cjmoles]

Something like 15x instead of 4x would make more sense, and it would still leave a 6.25% house edge (15/16 = 0.9375 EV = 6.25% house edge)

At 15x, EV = (-15 × 1 ÷ 16) + (14 × 1 ÷ 16) = -0.0625  (more reasonable->but I still wouldn't take it)

Thanks for pointing out the difference between house edge and expected value.

At 8x, EV = (-15 × 1 ÷ 16) + (7 × 1 ÷ 16) = -0.5 (still extremely unreasonable proposition)

What are the EVs of established Dice sites?

And, people wonder why they walk away with empty pockets!  They make things too complicated to formulate reasonably efficient decisions.

Gambling is not charity. People are expected to lose as well as multiply their wealth. It is part of the game.

EV= (-15*1/16) + (3*1/16) = -0.75........Translation: expect to lose 75% of your money on average.
                                                        Interpretation: don't be stupid enough to play against the house.

You did not consider the fact that, unlike dice sites, you can bet on multiple options at a time here and thereby significantly raise reduce your chance of win.

If you bet on all 16 possibilities you do have a 100% chance of winning the game, but you also have a 100% chance of losing 3/4 of your money in doing so!  So, you can win the game but lose your money.

(strike thru of "reduce" and red font in the above quote added by me)

Betting more does not increase the expected value.  Let's use the extremes to test that logic so as to avoid the math. If I bet on every number, what would my highest possible result be?  Lowest result? (H:-12, L: -12)  If I bet on four numbers, what would my highest possible result be? Lowest result? (H:0,L:-4) If I bet on three numbers, what would be my highest possible result? Lowest result? (H:1, L:-3)

Let's make a table for purposes of illustration:

For B=Number of Bets, H=Highest Result, L=Lowest Result

      (Bets 1-4)              (Bets 4-8)               (Bets 9-12)            (Bets 13-16)
B:01, H:03, L:-01,   B:05, H:-01, L:-05   B:09, H:-05, L:-09   B:13, H:-09, L:-13
B:02, H:02, L:-02,   B:06, H:-02, L:-06   B:10, H:-06, L:-10   B:14, H:-10, L:-14
B:03, H:01, L:-03,   B:07, H:-03, L:-06   B:11, H:-07, L:-11   B:15, H:-11, L:-15
B:04,  H:00, L:-04,    B:08, H:-04, L:-08   B:12, H:-08, L:-12   B:16, H:-12, L:-12

Notice that the only quantity of wagers capable of realizing profit are 1, 2, and 3. Also, notice that with one wager you're receiving the highest possible return on your investment, with two wagers you're risking 2 to win 2 with 14:2 odds against (even money prop with a 12.5% chance of success!!!), with 3 wagers you're risking 3 to win 1 with 13:3 odds against.  Most importantly recognize that at four wagers you're risking 4 to win 0 with 12:4 odds against (25% chance to break even, 75% chance to lose 4) and any number of wagers above four guarantees a loss.  Conclusion: the more wagers one places, the more inept one's gambling prowess.

Similar tables can be constructed for 8x return....it might be a fun exercise to compare them; however, the math associated with calculating expected value should be sufficient enough to make sound decisions.

[Angelina Jolie]

By my calculation, if I bet against the house, I get 400% return which is really too good but the odds are only 6.25% which is kind of... eh.
I don't know if this is true so please do clarify.

I was also thinking that. Since dice gives you almost 200% with a 50% that means 400% is 25% win. Odds are 4x worse then dice.

They are now giving 8x and unlike dice sites, we may bet on multiple options as it seems.

[Warren Buffet]

Similar tables can be constructed for 8x return....it might be a fun exercise to compare them; however, the math associated with calculating expected value should be sufficient enough to make sound decisions.

You dint answer this basic Q of mine...

At 8x, EV = (-15 × 1 ÷ 16) + (7 × 1 ÷ 16) = -0.5 (still extremely unreasonable proposition)

What are the EVs of established Dice sites?

[Victor Beckham]

it is easy to understand how to play it, also no need to registration, so no problem for me or others.    

I, for one, 100% agree with you. But, for me the main USP of this game is blockchain based provably fairness. AFAIK, no other game has done this before. After a bet is placed, player does not even need to check the site. Bet is won or lost can be verified from any block explorer.

[cjmoles]

Similar tables can be constructed for 8x return....it might be a fun exercise to compare them; however, the math associated with calculating expected value should be sufficient enough to make sound decisions.

You dint answer this basic Q of mine...

At 8x, EV = (-15 × 1 ÷ 16) + (7 × 1 ÷ 16) = -0.5 (still extremely unreasonable proposition)

What are the EVs of established Dice sites?

Example (PrimeDice): at default 2x roll; out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house reserves 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49).  So, house edge = 100/10000 = 0.01 = 01%  

To convert the house edge to an expected value divide the house edge by 100. So, if the house edge is 01% (PrimeDice) the EV= 01/100 = -0.01 (note: negation achieved thru the words "house edge")

At 8x, EV = (-15 × 1 ÷ 16) + (7 × 1 ÷ 16) = -0.5  (from example in quote above)

To convert the expected value to the house edge multiply the expected value by 100.  So, as in the above expected value of -0.50, HE = (-0.5) * 100 = 50% house edge.  (note: negation of the negative sign in the identity is accomplished thru the words "house edge" in the translation)

So, Bitcoin Betting Website = 50% house edge (-0.50 EV)
And,                  PrimeDice = 01% house edge (-0.01 EV)

I hope that answers your question.

Conclusion: One would have to be ridiculously inept to play against a 50% house edge when they have the option of playing against a 01% house edge dice site.

Advice: Take the time to evaluate the math before putting your tokens at risk.

[mobnepal]

Bet id 20   8    0.0003   Click Here   414057   won

but on detail it shows return of 0.0012 BTC which is only 4x of bet but OP claims to return 8x on correct guess quite confusing.

[Bitcoin Gambling]

Bet id 20   8    0.0003   Click Here   414057   won

but on detail it shows return of 0.0012 BTC which is only 4x of bet but OP claims to return 8x on correct guess quite confusing.

We launched with 4x return and then raised it to 8x. Here is the announcement...

We have experimentally raised the Player vs House multiplying factor from 4x to 8x. Any further changes will be notified here. Thank you everyone for showing interest in this new game.

[cjmoles]

Bet id 20   8    0.0003   Click Here   414057   won

but on detail it shows return of 0.0012 BTC which is only 4x of bet but OP claims to return 8x on correct guess quite confusing.

We launched with 4x return and then raised it to 8x. Here is the announcement...

We have experimentally raised the Player vs House multiplying factor from 4x to 8x. Any further changes will be notified here. Thank you everyone for showing interest in this new game.

What he is saying is that he only received 4x when he should have received 8x.

Verification:

Bet ID: 20
Choice: 8
Bet Amount:  0.0003
Tx Hash: 21f91e4610d533c4428f04905579277851e2e37f108c6ad6caa443a95069cee4
Status: won
Confirmation Block Height: 414057
Confirmation Block Hash: 000000000000000000ffaa5c9ce3bb1af2618e858f5711244b5ce22d72a3ca08
Won Amount:  0.0012
Return Address: 3GN4YRrj68cnYqEBMD2xDMUSSJXzFBEznc
Return Tx: ad86c488f3ea0730611f2b675f28934e41e4782828d4342197d4af8c5fe3b94d

[Bitcoin Gambling]

Bet id 20   8    0.0003   Click Here   414057   won

but on detail it shows return of 0.0012 BTC which is only 4x of bet but OP claims to return 8x on correct guess quite confusing.

We launched with 4x return and then raised it to 8x. Here is the announcement...

We have experimentally raised the Player vs House multiplying factor from 4x to 8x. Any further changes will be notified here. Thank you everyone for showing interest in this new game.

What he is saying is that he only received 4x when he should have received 8x.

Verification:

Bet ID: 20
Choice: 8
Bet Amount:  0.0003
Tx Hash: 21f91e4610d533c4428f04905579277851e2e37f108c6ad6caa443a95069cee4
Status: won
Confirmation Block Height: 414057
Confirmation Block Hash: 000000000000000000ffaa5c9ce3bb1af2618e858f5711244b5ce22d72a3ca08
Won Amount:  0.0012
Return Address: 3GN4YRrj68cnYqEBMD2xDMUSSJXzFBEznc
Return Tx: ad86c488f3ea0730611f2b675f28934e41e4782828d4342197d4af8c5fe3b94d

mobnepal checked a previous bet and asked about it. The person, who placed the bet, was supposed to receive 4x, as that was the return we were offering initially after launch. Please check the time stamp of the Confirmation Block Hash.

https://blockchain.info/block/000000000000000000ffaa5c9ce3bb1af2618e858f5711244b5ce22d72a3ca08

Timestamp   2016-05-30 12:46:56

Now, please check the date of my quote. It is June 01, 2016, i.e. the raise to 8x was made on this day.

Hence, system worked perfectly as expected.

[cjmoles]

Bet id 20   8    0.0003   Click Here   414057   won

but on detail it shows return of 0.0012 BTC which is only 4x of bet but OP claims to return 8x on correct guess quite confusing.

We launched with 4x return and then raised it to 8x. Here is the announcement...

We have experimentally raised the Player vs House multiplying factor from 4x to 8x. Any further changes will be notified here. Thank you everyone for showing interest in this new game.

What he is saying is that he only received 4x when he should have received 8x.

Verification:

Bet ID: 20
Choice: 8
Bet Amount:  0.0003
Tx Hash: 21f91e4610d533c4428f04905579277851e2e37f108c6ad6caa443a95069cee4
Status: won
Confirmation Block Height: 414057
Confirmation Block Hash: 000000000000000000ffaa5c9ce3bb1af2618e858f5711244b5ce22d72a3ca08
Won Amount:  0.0012
Return Address: 3GN4YRrj68cnYqEBMD2xDMUSSJXzFBEznc
Return Tx: ad86c488f3ea0730611f2b675f28934e41e4782828d4342197d4af8c5fe3b94d

mobnepal checked a previous bet and asked about it. The person, who placed the bet, was supposed to receive 4x, as that was the return we were offering initially after launch. Please check the time stamp of the Confirmation Block Hash.

https://blockchain.info/block/000000000000000000ffaa5c9ce3bb1af2618e858f5711244b5ce22d72a3ca08

Timestamp   2016-05-30 12:46:56

Now, please check the date of my quote. It is June 01, 2016, i.e. the raise to 8x was made on this day.

Hence, system worked perfectly as expected.

You're right....bet was placed prior to the change: verified by the timestamp.  He was paid the correct amount.

[Warren Buffet]

Example (PrimeDice): at default 2x roll; out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house reserves 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49).  So, house edge = 100/10000 = 0.01 = 01%

It seems u r mistaken in your calculation.

Example (PrimeDice): At default 2x roll, out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house DOES NOT reserve 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49). Because, player CAN NOT roll both over 50.49 and under 49.50 at a time. Player can bet either over or under at one roll. Hence, at any certain roll, house reserves 5100 possibilities for themselves.

So, according to your calculation, PrimeDice house edge = 5100/10000 = 0.51 = 51%, whereas Bitcoin Betting Website house edge is 50%.

Please correct me if I am wrong...

[cjmoles]

Example (PrimeDice): at default 2x roll; out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house reserves 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49).  So, house edge = 100/10000 = 0.01 = 01%

It seems u r mistaken in your calculation.

Example (PrimeDice): At default 2x roll, out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house DOES NOT DOES TOO reserve 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49). Because, player CAN NOT roll both over 50.49 and under 49.50 at a time. Player can bet either over or under at one roll. Hence, at any certain roll, house reserves 5100 possibilities for themselves.  (reserve means nobody else but "reserver" can have the reserved places.)

Edge is the house percentage greater than player percentage.

So, according to your calculation, PrimeDice house edge = 5100/10000 = 0.51 = 51%, whereas Bitcoin Betting Website house edge is 50%. (<--wouldn't even entertain the thought of making such inept calculations)


Please correct me if I am wrong...

Blue Font Added By Me Above

Sorry, you're wrong....Look at my post again; all the math is there.

(PrimeDice: have 50.49% chance to win) - (Players: have 49.51% chance to win) = (EDGE is 01%)
(5049/10000) - (4951/10000) =(0.5049) -(0.4951) = .01 = 01%   EDGE <--important concept->"edge"

To be clear:

So, Bitcoin Betting Website = 50% house edge (-0.50 EV)
And,                  PrimeDice = 01% house edge (-0.01 EV)

[Warren Buffet]

Example (PrimeDice): At default 2x roll, out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house DOES NOT DOES TOO reserve 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49). Because, player CAN NOT roll both over 50.49 and under 49.50 at a time. Player can bet either over or under at one roll. Hence, at any certain roll, house reserves 5100 possibilities for themselves.  (reserve means nobody else but "reserver" can have the reserved places.)

Yes. I am talking about none other than the reservoir, i.e. house, holding here. Out of 10000 possibilities, house holds 5100 possibilities at any certain roll (over or under). Your mistake is, you are considering over or under as over and under, which is giving you a false depiction of only 100 possibilities for house. That is untrue. House holding is 5100 possibilities, whereas players holding is 4900 possibilities at any certain roll (over or under).

Please go through my logic carefully, before arriving at a conclusion.

(PrimeDice: have 50.49% chance to win) - (Players: have 49.51% chance to win) = (EDGE is 01%)
(5049/10000) - (4951/10000) =(0.5049) -(0.4951) = .01 0.0098 = 01% 0.98% EDGE <--important concept->"edge"

FTFY. Now, you have come up with a new formula to explain EDGE, which is different than the previous.

To convert the expected value to the house edge multiply the expected value by 100.  So, as in the above expected value of -0.50, HE = (-0.5) * 100 = 50% house edge.  (note: negation of the negative sign in the identity is accomplished thru the words "house edge" in the translation)

According to your previous formula, the corrected value of house edge for PrimeDice was 51%. Still, I would like to see how you apply your new formula to Bitcoin Betting Website, as the operating mechanism appears different for this game than an average dice site.

[cjmoles]

Example (PrimeDice): At default 2x roll, out of 10,000 possible outcomes the house DOES NOT DOES TOO reserve 100 of those possibilities for themselves (49.50 < house < 50.49). Because, player CAN NOT roll both over 50.49 and under 49.50 at a time. Player can bet either over or under at one roll. Hence, at any certain roll, house reserves 5100 possibilities for themselves.  (reserve means nobody else but "reserver" can have the reserved places.)

Yes. I am talking about none other than the reservoir, i.e. house, holding here. Out of 10000 possibilities, house holds 5100 possibilities at any certain roll (over or under). Your mistake is, you are considering over or under as over and under, which is giving you a false depiction of only 100 possibilities for house. That is untrue. House holding is 5100 possibilities, whereas players holding is 4900 possibilities at any certain roll (over or under).

Please go through my logic carefully, before arriving at a conclusion.

(PrimeDice: have 50.49% chance to win) - (Players: have 49.51% chance to win) = (EDGE is 01%)
(5049/10000) - (4951/10000) =(0.5049) -(0.4951) = .01 0.0098 = 01% 0.98% EDGE <--important concept->"edge"

FTFY. Now, you have come up with a new formula to explain EDGE, which is different than the previous.

To convert the expected value to the house edge multiply the expected value by 100.  So, as in the above expected value of -0.50, HE = (-0.5) * 100 = 50% house edge.  (note: negation of the negative sign in the identity is accomplished thru the words "house edge" in the translation)

According to your previous formula, the corrected value of house edge for PrimeDice was 51%. Still, I would like to see how you apply your new formula to Bitcoin Betting Website, as the operating mechanism appears different for this game than an average dice site.

No....you changed the formula....the house edge is 01% not the 51% that you claim.  --CJMOLES--

There is no new formula....I've done everything but draw you pictures.  The "edge" is how much greater a percentage one has over the other.  In the case of PrimeDice, the house probability is 50.5% and the player probability is 49.5%, so the difference is 01% <- that is the "edge."  And, the house DOES only reserves 100 numbers, the 9900 other possibilities are distributed equally 4950 for the house and 4950 to the player....

Advice:  If these very fundamental concepts are confusing....then gambling is going to be unhealthy for you....I am being sincere....Try Bingo....it's fun too.

EDIT:
To put it into words:  If you play at Bitcoin Betting Website and you place one wager, then you could "expect" to win one time out of sixteen attempts in which case you would "expect" eight times your initial bet in return but you would also "expect" to lose sixteen times that same wager.  So, you'd "expect" to lose sixteen to win eight for a loss of half your money over the long term.  Thus, the -0.50 expected value....

Learn the math....it could be very profitable when implemented in the right situation....the quicker one is at running the figures, the "sharper" gambler they will be. The "Expected Value" calculation is a tool that helps simplify the process; however, there's more to it than just that....bankroll management is also crucial.

[Warren Buffet]

The "edge" is how much greater a percentage one has over the other.  In the case of PrimeDice, the house probability is 50.5% and the player probability is 49.5%, so the difference is 01% <- that is the "edge."

Going by this formula of yours, in the case of Bitcoin Betting Website, the house probability is 50% and the player probability is 50%, so the difference is 0% <- that is the "edge."

And, the house DOES only reserves 100 numbers, the 9900 other possibilities are distributed equally 4950 for the house and 4950 to the player....

When house reserves 100 numbers and 9900 other possibilities are distributed equally 4950 for the house and 4950 to the player, then obviously house reserve becomes (4950 + 100) = 5050. I'm not sure, what is stopping you from seeing this crystal clear reasoning!

[cjmoles]

The "edge" is how much greater a percentage one has over the other.  In the case of PrimeDice, the house probability is 50.5% and the player probability is 49.5%, so the difference is 01% <- that is the "edge."

Going by this formula of yours, in the case of Bitcoin Betting Website, the house probability is 50% and the player probability is 50%, so the difference is 0% <- that is the "edge."

And, the house DOES only reserves 100 numbers, the 9900 other possibilities are distributed equally 4950 for the house and 4950 to the player....

When house reserves 100 numbers and 9900 other possibilities are distributed equally 4950 for the house and 4950 to the player, then obviously house reserve becomes (4950 + 100) = 5050. I'm not sure, what is stopping you from seeing this crystal clear reasoning!

You're right!  I'm not trying to ruin your day....I have fun.  The only thing that's important is that you're happy spending your money there....as long as you feel like a winner, that's all that matters....you deserve all you can win there.  Good luck.

[Sir_lagsalot]

Love your "on chain" concept. It's a more trustable and easily verifiable method of gambling, so you don't put all your trust into that "probably fair" script. Also love your UI!

[NLNico]

The house edge of this site is 50%. This has been explained many times by cjmoles now. You must be an idiot to actually play here.

The payout (for a 1% HE) should be: 0.99/(1/16) = 15.84x - not 8x.