(Closed for Maintenance) Mining Profitability Chart

[wizzard0]

2012-01-06: Closed for maintenance

2011-09-25: Added IXCoin, I0Coin, SolidCoin
2011-06-27: MtGox is back, bugs fixed, chart is back again, too


I've got tired of http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html (since it only works once a day for me), and made my own

See http://tvori.info/bitcoin/charts/ . Suggestions welcome.

Displayed data:
* Historical profit chart (BTC, NMC)
* Last week profit chart

* current profit (All currencies)
* projected profit (accounts for next difficulty increase)

Data sources:
* BlockExplorer
* Bitcoin prices/profits: MtGox / BitcoinCharts (whichever ticker works at the time)
* Namecoin: Bitparking Exchange + MtGox.

[Phil21]

I like it!

However, this math doesn't quite add up to me...

Currently, 100 MH would give you 0,17728007 BTC/day. At rate $21,70 per BTC this gets you $3,8470/day

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get $3800/day for 100MH, but I don't think that is correct

-Phil

[wizzard0]

Currently, 100 MH would give you 0,17728007 BTC/day. At rate $21,70 per BTC this gets you $3,8470/day

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get $3800/day for 100MH, but I don't think that is correct

-Phil

Hmm, there were commas in place of decimal points. Fixed.

[minerX]

Currently, 100 MH would give you 0,17728007 BTC/day. At rate $21,70 per BTC this gets you $3,8470/day

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get $3800/day for 100MH, but I don't think that is correct

-Phil

Hmm, there were commas in place of decimal points. Fixed.

Very cool.  I would have assumed decimals anyhow.

[BombaUcigasa]

Green line: profit (linear scale)
Orange line: MtGox price (log scale)
   

OBJECTION!

[wizzard0]

Green line: profit (linear scale)
Orange line: MtGox price (log scale)
OBJECTION!

I doesn't really makes sense to compare then, so I don't see problem with different scales. Do you?

[BombaUcigasa]

Green line: profit (linear scale)
Orange line: MtGox price (log scale)
OBJECTION!

I doesn't really makes sense to compare then, so I don't see problem with different scales. Do you?

Well profit is part of a price... and I would be happy if you used either linear or log scale (possibly log to accommodate them both)

[wizzard0]

I don't feel the log scale profit reflects the true volatility of mining. Will make mtgox linear, too.

[Sukrim]

I'm only really interested in the profit part anyways...  

Nice work so far, let's see how this will still be improved!

/bookmarked

Edit:
Check out code.google.com/apis/chart/ for example... maybe it'll help you?

[ocharry]

Currently, 100 MH would give you 0,17728007 BTC/day. At rate $21,70 per BTC this gets you $3,8470/day

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get $3800/day for 100MH, but I don't think that is correct

-Phil

Hmm, there were commas in place of decimal points. Fixed.

Europeans use commas at the decimal point.

[wizzard0]

* Changed mtgox price to linear scale
* added (somewhat scary) next difficulty-based profit estimate

Also, yes, in Ukraine we use commas too, but I'm too lazy to make dynamically-generated page for different languages/countries

[BombaUcigasa]

* Changed mtgox price to linear scale
* added (somewhat scary) next difficulty-based profit estimate

Also, yes, in Ukraine we use commas too, but I'm too lazy to make dynamically-generated page for different languages/countries

There is a weird portion in the graph where the price is below the profit line. Is it something wrong with the data?

[bcpokey]

God no... not more of this stuff. Profitability charts are based on the concept that you can predict the future, which you can't even come close.

@$30/BTC your chart would never have predicted a huge drop to $13/BTC. People would be crying salty tears based on a $30 projection that suddenly halved.

EDIT: Sorry you are only looking at current month and predicted next difficulty. Not so bad. Thumbs up to you then.

[neijek.bit]

sorry might sound quite "stupid" but as the difficulty scales go up (meaning less bitcoins are generated per mh/s) would it not cause by default, an increase of value of BTC as they become more "rare" or "harder" to "produce"?

[Sukrim]

sorry might sound quite "stupid" but as the difficulty scales go up (meaning less bitcoins are generated per mh/s) would it not cause by default, an increase of value of BTC as they become more "rare" or "harder" to "produce"?

Only if the rate that people buy BTC keeps up with the rate BTC are generated.
If there is more demand than ~7200 new BTC/day (plus what old miners are selling from their stashes, so maybe ~8000 BTC/day for a while still) price will go up, if there is less, price will go down.

Difficulty wil FOLLOW price (as it might get unprofitable to mine at some points) but not vice versa - a merchant will nearly ALWAYS see ~7000-7500 BTC per day generated regardless of difficulty (and this is the only thing that drives price) unless a lot of miners quit at the same time.

[hoo2jalu]

Green line: profit (linear scale)
Orange line: MtGox price (log scale)
   
OBJECTION!

Sssh, that's supposed to be sekrit. Look at that exponential return on investment instead!

[Sukrim]

Ah, and another question:
Where do you get this data from?

I guess from bitcoincharts.com... right?

[wizzard0]

There is a weird portion in the graph where the price is below the profit line. Is it something wrong with the data?

1) Price and profit does not use the same scale
2) At the very beginning of the graph, there is portion where MtGox price is not available, the profit line reflects this while the price line does not I may cut it off in the future though.

Ah, and another question:
Where do you get this data from?

I guess from bitcoincharts.com... right?

Bitcoincharts, blockexplorer, mtgox.

Profitability charts are based on the concept that you can predict the future, which you can't even come close.

@$30/BTC your chart would never have predicted a huge drop to $13/BTC. People would be crying salty tears based on a $30 projection that suddenly halved.

EDIT: Sorry you are only looking at current month and predicted next difficulty. Not so bad. Thumbs up to you then.

Well, this isnt meant to be a "prediction chart", but a historical chart. I completely agree with you about predictions based solely on tickers, yes)

[wizzard0]

Ah, and another question:
Where do you get this data from?

I guess from bitcoincharts.com... right?

Oh BTW, do you know of any historical data of NMC/BTC tickers?

[wizzard0]

Update: Now with Namecoin ( http://dot-bit.org/ ) data!

Can't find historical namecoin data though, started to collect on my own...