Value of BTC (likely to drop soon?)

[riniks92]

Can anyone provide an educated prediction whether bitcoin value could drop significantly in the following month?
I don't want to buy some BTCs and wake up the next morning having them less value.
Although the value tends to rise I'm afraid it would ''burst'' as they say.

Just feeling a little uneasy purchasing BTCs right now.

Any feedback much appreciated!

[1714102224]

1714102224

[DataPlumber]

All I know is, when I look at the chart of the last 60 days, "sustainable" isn't the first word that comes to mind.

[RodeoX]

Can anyone provide an educated prediction whether bitcoin value could drop significantly in the following month?
...

No. There is no one with the expertise you seek. Even the best Wall street analysts do only slightly better than odds. This is a new phenomena with out a real comparable. Bitcoin should still be considered in beta and a somewhat risky option when used as an "investment".
   

[shkiser]

Keep an eye to see what happens this week. I myself will continue to buy but I think this week is big.

[sub0]

I doubt anyone can predict near-term fluctuations with any kind of certainty. It's all driven by supply and demand.

Considering that the vast majority of Internet denizens have never even heard of Bitcoin but with increasing awareness of Bitcoin as a payment system and a currency + most people here holding onto coin because they believe in Bitcoin's long-term viability, then IMHO the long term exchange rate will only keep going up.

I've been buying since $4.50 and I'm still buying today. It sucks only getting 1/10 the amount of coin today than you did a year ago but that doesn't make Bitcoin any less of a good investment today.

If you buy in small regular increments, then you will either be averaging up with a rising rate, or averaging down with a falling rate. Either way, the impact of any single buying decision will not matter too much.

If you like many believe Bitcoin is an unstoppable idea then the sky's the limit.

[Lethn]

Don't speculate with Bitcoin, while people have made fortunes from it yes I think the prices are too erratic really, it's entering new highs but for how long? I don't think anyone will know for sure what's going to happen in the next couple of months though I hope it still stays valuable.

[boscorocks]

The thing that makes me most nervous is the sudden crash of BTC in 2011 from $30 down to $2. I expect this to happen again very soon...well maybe not down to $2 but perhaps lose half its value.
Heard that there are ASICs starting up now, so theoretically, wouldn't that flood the market with BTC and drive down the value?  At any rate I expect the month of March to be a crazy emotional rollercoaster

[CecilNiosaki]

The thing that makes me most nervous is the sudden crash of BTC in 2011 from $30 down to $2. I expect this to happen again very soon...well maybe not down to $2 but perhaps lose half its value.
Heard that there are ASICs starting up now, so theoretically, wouldn't that flood the market with BTC and drive down the value?  At any rate I expect the month of March to be a crazy emotional rollercoaster

It depends if the owners of those ASICs choose to sell all of the BTC that they make at once. I'm not sure we'd see a drop down to $2 anymore. If BTC were to fall by half, I'd imagine there is enough confidence in BTC that it'll be bought up.

[louisejonesxxx]

nobody knows

[zdavidi]

Is the value of BTC not related to the number of BTCs per block?

[Stephen Gornick]

Is the value of BTC not related to the number of BTCs per block?

Over the long run that affects new supply and thus weighs in on price discovery where supply and demand meet.

Over the short run, the exchange rate is determined by organic demand (you can't send a bitcoin across the blockchain unless you've acquired it first), speculative interest -- how much traction is bitcoin getting / will it be seeing wide use as a competitor to PayPal and/or Western Union, will bitcoin see traction as a payment method at retail, will Bitcoin compete against SWIFT payment messaging network, etc.   

Add all that up and you get the current market price.

[Mikko]

I think the price will drop to ~20-25 USD in couple of weeks.

So no, I won't buy now.

[DannyHamilton]

- snip -
Heard that there are ASICs starting up now, so theoretically, wouldn't that flood the market with BTC and drive down the value?
- snip -

No.  The protocol automatically adjusts the difficulty to keep the average block generation around 10 minutes.  ASIC will make difficulty increase, but it won't significantly increase the rate of production of new bitcoins.

[zdavidi]

- snip -
Heard that there are ASICs starting up now, so theoretically, wouldn't that flood the market with BTC and drive down the value?
- snip -

No.  The protocol automatically adjusts the difficulty to keep the average block generation around 10 minutes.  ASIC will make difficulty increase, but it won't significantly increase the rate of production of new bitcoins.

So, no matter the speed of hashing, there is a constant calculation that makes the block sizes large enough to generate one block per 10 min (on avg)?
If ASIC adjustment is only going to keep things the way they are, what's all the fuss about them? How are they going to be so profitable if everything is just re-adjusted?

[Mike Christ]

- snip -
Heard that there are ASICs starting up now, so theoretically, wouldn't that flood the market with BTC and drive down the value?
- snip -

No.  The protocol automatically adjusts the difficulty to keep the average block generation around 10 minutes.  ASIC will make difficulty increase, but it won't significantly increase the rate of production of new bitcoins.

So, no matter the speed of hashing, there is a constant calculation that makes the block sizes large enough to generate one block per 10 min (on avg)?
If ASIC adjustment is only going to keep things the way they are, what's all the fuss about them? How are they going to be so profitable if everything is just re-adjusted?

It means the only way for mining to be profitable is to "step it up" and get an ASIC.  Then if there's an ASIC 2 which trumps the normal ASIC, everyone has to upgrade.  In other words, GPU mining will be obsolete, then ASIC will be obsolete, so you gotta keep competing with hashing power to stay in the game.

[zdavidi]

So, my pre-order of a BFL Jalapeno was a good move? Even though it might take me all summer to get it, I'll eventually be somewhat "ahead of the curve" by having stepped into the realm of ASICs?

[Explodicle]

Can anyone provide an educated prediction whether bitcoin value could drop significantly in the following month?

Yes, it could because it has before. But be very skeptical of people who tell you this kind of advice, because they might be trying to manipulate you. No one knows for sure.

If you honestly think you're better at speculating than the average bitcoin speculator, then you should try to play the market, starting with small amounts.

If you're new to bitcoin I highly recommend you take sub0's advice and buy small incriments over a long period of time to average out. Don't be scared of "missing the boat" just because it's going up fast right now; until you see more local vendors accepting bitcoin, this movement has a long way left to go. It will probably crash and bubble up again several more times before reaching the stability of a major world currency.

Either way, don't invest more than you can afford to lose, and put your long-term savings in a cold wallet.

[gradient vector]

In the next few weeks I doubt the price will drop. According to a reddit post a few days ago. There were more than 1000 new entries waiting for Mt. Gox verification.

[Mike Christ]

So, my pre-order of a BFL Jalapeno was a good move? Even though it might take me all summer to get it, I'll eventually be somewhat "ahead of the curve" by having stepped into the realm of ASICs?

For a while, yeah, until everyone else catches up.  The better everyone else is doing, the less you'll make.  So being ahead of the curve is vital to making good profits in mining.

[Nicolai]

So, no matter the speed of hashing, there is a constant calculation that makes the block sizes large enough to generate one block per 10 min (on avg)?

It's not the block size, it's the difficulty :-)