notlist3d
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June 10, 2016, 12:57:23 PM |
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Morning Bitwisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 196,061,423,940 Estimated Next Difficulty: 199,935,750,265 (+1.98%) Adjust time: After 1654 Blocks, About 10.9 days Hashrate(?): 1,447,205,112 GH/s
So if it is right I would still be happy with a small positive. BTC prices have been pretty stable really over past few day's. It may go up or down a little but it's remained at high 570's for most of the current period.
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RichBC
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June 10, 2016, 01:36:58 PM |
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Yesterday was +14.58% with 165 Blocks and the period to Date Run Rate is moving in the +4% to +8% band for the moment.
Coin had another loss Yesterday and seems to have entered a small downtrend, let's hope the uptrend can return.
Rich
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ezeminer
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June 10, 2016, 03:23:28 PM |
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So we only have two or three more adjustments till halving?
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philipma1957 (OP)
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June 10, 2016, 03:29:09 PM |
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So we only have two or three more adjustments till halving?
July 9-13 so I guess 2 or 3
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alh
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June 10, 2016, 10:01:26 PM |
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So we only have two or three more adjustments till halving?
July 9-13 so I guess 2 or 3 For some reason I thought the halving would line up with the end of difficulty period. But with a cycle of 2016 for difficulty adjustment, that doesn't go into 420,000 without a fraction. So as I figure it, well finish the current adjustment period, and then get another full 2016 block period, and then the "halving" will happen a third of the way through that period. Just an interesting fact (assuming I did the math right).
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RichBC
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June 11, 2016, 06:52:36 AM |
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Yes I too had expected Halving to be at a period end, but agree that is not what the maths tell us.
So Yesterday another flat Day with exactly 144 blocks. Period to Date we seem settled in the +4% to +5% band. Coin had a good day Yesterday and Today we are on the rise again. Hopefully we will have another crack at $600 in the next few Days.
Rich
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notlist3d
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June 11, 2016, 01:59:48 PM |
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Yes I too had expected Halving to be at a period end, but agree that is not what the maths tell us.
So Yesterday another flat Day with exactly 144 blocks. Period to Date we seem settled in the +4% to +5% band. Coin had a good day Yesterday and Today we are on the rise again. Hopefully we will have another crack at $600 in the next few Days.
Rich
It's been really good I thought it would be huge numbers going up to having. But so far I am happy I was wrong. Bitwisdom does show us at a positive but if we are between 4-5 at end that is not to bad at all: Bitcoin Difficulty: 196,061,423,940 Estimated Next Difficulty: 204,875,025,503 (+4.50%) Adjust time: After 1493 Blocks, About 9.6 days Hashrate(?): 1,485,420,827 GH/s
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philipma1957 (OP)
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June 11, 2016, 10:51:02 PM Last edit: June 11, 2016, 11:55:28 PM by philipma1957 |
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Yes I too had expected Halving to be at a period end, but agree that is not what the maths tell us.
So Yesterday another flat Day with exactly 144 blocks. Period to Date we seem settled in the +4% to +5% band. Coin had a good day Yesterday and Today we are on the rise again. Hopefully we will have another crack at $600 in the next few Days.
Rich
It's been really good I thought it would be huge numbers going up to having. But so far I am happy I was wrong. Bitwisdom does show us at a positive but if we are between 4-5 at end that is not to bad at all: Bitcoin Difficulty: 196,061,423,940 Estimated Next Difficulty: 204,875,025,503 (+4.50%) Adjust time: After 1493 Blocks, About 9.6 days Hashrate(?): 1,485,420,827 GH/s https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 196,061,423,940 Estimated Next Difficulty: 204,884,210,916 (+4.50%) Adjust time: After 1426 Blocks, About 9.2 days Hashrate(?): 1,494,811,959 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 9.2 minutes 3 blocks: 27.8 minutes 6 blocks: 55.5 minutes Updated: 19:45 (3.0 minutes ago) 592 made so far been too busy to do a real world number 415888 (Main Chain) 2016-06-11 23:48:40 415296 (Main Chain) 2016-06-08 02:41:58 3 days = 432 21 hours = 126 10 min = 1 559 = 0% 592/559-1 = +5.90339%
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notlist3d
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June 12, 2016, 04:02:56 AM |
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Coinbase is looking GREAT right now we blew through 600. Which was surprising I was expecting some big sell walls. But at 635 USD per BTC right now... its a good time to be holding. And we have not even made it to having yet how high can it go could be fun to watch.
Considering that bitwisdom looks not to bad:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 196,061,423,940 Estimated Next Difficulty: 204,771,025,649 (+4.44%) Adjust time: After 1397 Blocks, About 9.0 days Hashrate(?): 1,506,950,576 GH/s
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alh
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June 12, 2016, 04:29:28 AM |
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At a price of $630+, there is plenty of gear which is viable to run for the next 4 weeks. SP20's and S5's have to still have legs at this price, assuming they are paid for. Or perhaps it's the best time to SELL some older gear. In my experience, when BTC price is high, older gear fetches a better price (in fiat).
This will NOT be a negative difficulty adjustment this round. Those might be gone until after the halving.
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RichBC
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June 12, 2016, 06:15:51 AM |
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So Yesterday was +8.33% with 156 Blocks and the Hash rate is gradually pushing up with the Period to date now at +6.4%. However the big news, as alh has said, is on the Price... Big rise Yesterday and continuing on up Today. This may be the push that sees us convincingly through $600. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Here's hoping... Rich
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philipma1957 (OP)
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June 12, 2016, 04:03:07 PM |
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So Yesterday was +8.33% with 156 Blocks and the Hash rate is gradually pushing up with the Period to date now at +6.4%. However the big news, as alh has said, is on the Price... Big rise Yesterday and continuing on up Today. This may be the push that sees us convincingly through $600. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Here's hoping... Rich https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 196,061,423,940 Estimated Next Difficulty: 203,137,665,988 (+3.61%) Adjust time: After 1329 Blocks, About 8.7 days Hashrate(?): 1,472,725,231 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 9.4 minutes 3 blocks: 28.2 minutes 6 blocks: 56.4 minutes Updated: 11:55 (5.1 minutes ago) Coinbase is 648 usd! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) I sold 0.80 btc at 642 just to know I was able to sell at a price this high. The diff is hanging in there pretty high we look to do over 200 easy this jump ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbitcoin.sipa.be%2Fspeed-thumbnail.png&t=665&c=PDk9kKFDvKec4w) almost always over 0% ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FL9BrKzz.png&t=665&c=7BXkPIqVwk3aQQ)
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pogress
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June 12, 2016, 04:23:11 PM |
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Anyone knows how many S9 batch 1 were sold? These S9s should be received before this difficulty ends thus impacting this difficulty. But 1000 S9s is just about 1%, and I doubt much more were sold thus not big impact at all?
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philipma1957 (OP)
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June 12, 2016, 05:25:00 PM |
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Anyone knows how many S9 batch 1 were sold? These S9s should be received before this difficulty ends thus impacting this difficulty. But 1000 S9s is just about 1%, and I doubt much more were sold thus not big impact at all?
I am lazy but here is the btc addy. Some fun with bitmaintech master btc addy https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8Vfirst orders https://blockchain.info/tx/b8af612b665c50e22d7fac09b69d7a19a714673f0451ab0e2e84e3bd2fd401e4 9.906
https://blockchain.info/tx/800eba8a97d69b360723d36a534626db1e6bb3c7b82db7b39e780a5fb5e1cd54 4.007 https://blockchain.info/tx/6815fe3a880fff73725ac6fbeae17447931b79708c573f165a4a39d5ac6c5151 4.014 https://blockchain.info/tx/007ee4c061744ae9bf9f098fef3d155b23a5d9c70c420317698514a1cad64e68 7.901 https://blockchain.info/tx/00768ea6e10b00b36128cfc371a6c7015f6cc9a19046e4dea50fb55a92947748 3.996 https://blockchain.info/tx/df36110d761329593c6a3eea0a2d491c3e4d346fa8a7c37be3caa3cdab5ba986 18.373 https://blockchain.info/tx/f9b12a49c258461983a50116a0ebca41a0f268cded28c1f45ca6e64861055189 12.799 https://blockchain.info/tx/789d495b8638127dda5cc9223b40a87490a88edcf6cf92592c3793e97aa5fd95 19.808 https://blockchain.info/tx/c6789a6dcd0f8f272b4689c6177f4ee80dff1e58cae5deca0ce9e3b4ccd5a7fe 19.769 https://blockchain.info/tx/1234c695cc1a42f927ba7a2b3eae8f9ac08d487997a0d723390d0ea585f0b8e8 3.996 https://blockchain.info/tx/feb24794abb5272172615b7d1935b8cb446e473e8c38a40d46f9da9c186bfb95 4.012
above was about 160 coins 37 to 40 pieces depends on how many psus purchased
https://blockchain.info/tx/974ec95695346a04174dc60565ebe52ccb28837399c43269d89b51a96921cdf9 19.741 https://blockchain.info/tx/a0a791ae1daacbaeafa3e01968583052810b693faf33191471f614c04540d017 3.995 https://blockchain.info/tx/4f171d5d371cd517b4d8760989a45d3a93f6ef061655a071c09087ed6bf4e772 19.8 https://blockchain.info/tx/d13bded6bb0647d6aab21f44ec9b624da8b1f24be17d46dcf9c2cdf57c3cb4fb 8.63 https://blockchain.info/tx/b411964fbb16d1fd09aa81ddd4093be2b52947f154486e32713f94380cd7d766 7.985 https://blockchain.info/tx/d7cd8aba35b4c0abb6906a75aec6fab391dc399d0d6eedf29b039e3772b70a62 20.616 https://blockchain.info/tx/abf15c65065ce587cc0f96f5efc06b050622d7a687507a75f68af759a20f0479 4.018 https://blockchain.info/tx/7464ee7043c8c0ac3421603b5835d2a78d5122333d1b444bce0ef61c2c80086c 7.917 https://blockchain.info/tx/ed07efe73561e9848e5110ae291d66ca533c9cf2759b6328e60677baccc94bb2 4.5 https://blockchain.info/tx/e59945d6a1bcfdd5b9ae83908fe6f9ac526471eb2fa19c9f1a1899beea998020 7.225 https://blockchain.info/tx/39cad480fe50e8c13cffaab0e4f780a2f59c50493283cabe78bd6b595f8f3417 7.877
I will work on this later today but section 2 is 112 coins about 26 to 28 units or 63 to 68 units
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pogress
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June 12, 2016, 10:54:58 PM |
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Thank you for the addy, since 2016-05-30 to 2016-06-08 (not many 3+ BTC deposits since 2016-06-06) I counted about 392 possible S9 batch 1 ; I counted 1 S9 = about 4 BTC when 3+ BTC deposit (so 15 BTC deposit = 4x, 6.5 BTC = 2x and so on). I did not included one massive 4811 BTC deposit though, but I added 3 times about 80 BTC deposit even though the max should be 20 BTC with 5 units. Since 2016-06-09 to now I counted additional 228 possible S9 (batch 2?) So the 600 S9s does represents about half percent of additional network hashrate - nothing to worry about at all - it seems pretty insignificant number of S9 sold so far.
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edonkey
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June 12, 2016, 11:40:26 PM |
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Thank you for the addy, since 2016-05-30 to 2016-06-08 (not many 3+ BTC deposits since 2016-06-06) I counted about 392 possible S9 batch 1 ; I counted 1 S9 = about 4 BTC when 3+ BTC deposit (so 15 BTC deposit = 4x, 6.5 BTC = 2x and so on). I did not included one massive 4811 BTC deposit though, but I added 3 times about 80 BTC deposit even though the max should be 20 BTC with 5 units. Since 2016-06-09 to now I counted additional 228 possible S9 (batch 2?) So the 600 S9s does represents about half percent of additional network hashrate - nothing to worry about at all - it seems pretty insignificant number of S9 sold so far. Thanks for doing this math. If it's accurate, they really haven't sold many units. There are probably a lot of folks on the sidelines waiting for the BTC cost of the S9s to go down. I'm one of them. I really want to buy, but can't justify spending more BTC on a miner than it will likely make in a year. Bitmain must know that their pricing choices have limited sales. So it's either intentional and part of their master plan, or out of their control (maybe they can't produce enough chips). My guess is that they're happy to mine with their own S9s up to the halving, while at the same time enjoying the premium that they're getting from early adopters of a limited release. If BW ever does release publicly, Bitmain can respond then with lower priced batches, killing the competition (again). Until then they can cruse into the halving with high S9 unit prices. In the meantime, BTC prices have shot up resulting in a new high point in mining profitability. If this price holds (or goes up) my original estimate of around 140 PH/s going offline after the halving is probably too high. Older machines will remain profitable, so why turn them off. So people who are depending on a significant difficulty reduction after the halving for their ROI calculations are probably in for a surprise. But with higher BTC prices maybe they won't care. As an aside, why does Bitmain reuse receive addresses? Seems lazy on their part and possibly dangerous because it leaks sales information.
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Was I helpful? BTC: 3G1Ubof5u8K9iJkM8We2f3amYZgGVdvpHr
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philipma1957 (OP)
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June 13, 2016, 01:35:16 AM |
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Thank you for the addy, since 2016-05-30 to 2016-06-08 (not many 3+ BTC deposits since 2016-06-06) I counted about 392 possible S9 batch 1 ; I counted 1 S9 = about 4 BTC when 3+ BTC deposit (so 15 BTC deposit = 4x, 6.5 BTC = 2x and so on). I did not included one massive 4811 BTC deposit though, but I added 3 times about 80 BTC deposit even though the max should be 20 BTC with 5 units. Since 2016-06-09 to now I counted additional 228 possible S9 (batch 2?) So the 600 S9s does represents about half percent of additional network hashrate - nothing to worry about at all - it seems pretty insignificant number of S9 sold so far. Thanks for doing this math. If it's accurate, they really haven't sold many units. There are probably a lot of folks on the sidelines waiting for the BTC cost of the S9s to go down. I'm one of them. I really want to buy, but can't justify spending more BTC on a miner than it will likely make in a year. Bitmain must know that their pricing choices have limited sales. So it's either intentional and part of their master plan, or out of their control (maybe they can't produce enough chips). My guess is that they're happy to mine with their own S9s up to the halving, while at the same time enjoying the premium that they're getting from early adopters of a limited release. If BW ever does release publicly, Bitmain can respond then with lower priced batches, killing the competition (again). Until then they can cruse into the halving with high S9 unit prices. In the meantime, BTC prices have shot up resulting in a new high point in mining profitability. If this price holds (or goes up) my original estimate of around 140 PH/s going offline after the halving is probably too high. Older machines will remain profitable, so why turn them off. So people who are depending on a significant difficulty reduction after the halving for their ROI calculations are probably in for a surprise. But with higher BTC prices maybe they won't care. As an aside, why does Bitmain reuse receive addresses? Seems lazy on their part and possibly dangerous because it leaks sales information. Not sure and they now have more then 25 million usd in that address! https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 196,061,423,940 Estimated Next Difficulty: 201,802,916,705 (+2.93%) Adjust time: After 1272 Blocks, About 8.4 days>>> we start in 156 blocks so some time monday nite eastern standard time.Hashrate(?): 1,446,261,937 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 9.5 minutes 3 blocks: 28.6 minutes 6 blocks: 57.1 minutes Updated: 21:35 (4.7 minutes ago)
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notlist3d
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June 13, 2016, 05:56:51 AM |
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Bitwsidom still looks pretty good. A few month's ago I would have never guessed low numbers leading into having... but it's nice:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 196,061,423,940 Estimated Next Difficulty: 201,541,650,244 (+2.80%) Adjust time: After 1246 Blocks, About 8.3 days Hashrate(?): 1,446,710,566 GH/s
Coinbase is currently 692 that is right we are approaching 700. Just again going into having if this continues... it is a good time for bitcoin.
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RichBC
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June 13, 2016, 05:58:37 AM |
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Yesterday was +1.39% with 146 Blocks and the Period to Date Run Rate seems to have settled at +5% for the moment. Three up Days on the Coin whereas only Yesterday I was wondering if the break trough $600 would hold we are now close to testing $700 ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) All sorts of ROI maths and older Miner profitability calculations need to be redone.... Rich
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notlist3d
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June 13, 2016, 06:06:45 AM |
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Yesterday was +1.39% with 146 Blocks and the Period to Date Run Rate seems to have settled at +5% for the moment. Three up Days on the Coin whereas only Yesterday I was wondering if the break trough $600 would hold we are now close to testing $700 ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) All sorts of ROI maths and older Miner profitability calculations need to be redone.... Rich Exactly I am looking at all my excel sheets (I love excel) and having to update with number I just did not see coming so quick. That 600 barrier I thought there would be some sales walls and drawn out. But we have just been blowing through my predictions which is great. I tend to be a realistic investor a month ago I did was not even playing with almost 700 USD in my sheets. And the amazing thing is we have around a month till having.... so I sitting back loving watching this. Going to be a interesting month for sure.
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