Will difficulty jump over 200 billion at block halving?

[notlist3d]

And 2012 we were a mostly gpu network coins were around 8 to 12 usd.

So a small drop 10 to 15 % in 2012 is not surprising.

This 1/2 ing I see 18 to 30 percent drop.

But it will recover in August and September .

it is probably price-dependent.
at btc $450 you are probably right (18-30%)
at btc 677 maybe 10-15%
at btc 800 5% or less.

incidentally, in 2012 difficulty dropped not AT block size change, but 4 weeks later.

If the network drops 30% I'm basically all in at that point. It will usually take some time for people to know and accept that mining won't be profitable at their electricity rate and hardware anymore. So until then I only see it going up with the price.

I think some gear will come off.  I still think there are a lot of old machines running at cheap electricity.   But if we keep going up in USD value it might be less of a drop then I was expecting.   I was thinking it would be a pretty massive drop off of old gear and tons of good deals on older gear.   But price keeps skyrocketing.

Currently at 693 on coinbase and rising slowly.  If this keeps up it's hard to say what will be profitable still in a month.   I just hope it does not drop off.

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[WaffleMaster]

And 2012 we were a mostly gpu network coins were around 8 to 12 usd.

So a small drop 10 to 15 % in 2012 is not surprising.

This 1/2 ing I see 18 to 30 percent drop.

But it will recover in August and September .

it is probably price-dependent.
at btc $450 you are probably right (18-30%)
at btc 677 maybe 10-15%
at btc 800 5% or less.

incidentally, in 2012 difficulty dropped not AT block size change, but 4 weeks later.

If the network drops 30% I'm basically all in at that point. It will usually take some time for people to know and accept that mining won't be profitable at their electricity rate and hardware anymore. So until then I only see it going up with the price.

I think some gear will come off.  I still think there are a lot of old machines running at cheap electricity.   But if we keep going up in USD value it might be less of a drop then I was expecting.   I was thinking it would be a pretty massive drop off of old gear and tons of good deals on older gear.   But price keeps skyrocketing.

Currently at 693 on coinbase and rising slowly.  If this keeps up it's hard to say what will be profitable still in a month.   I just hope it does not drop off.

Yeah it has the potential for price drop. But think of it as price drops the people mining also drops. As price rises more people can mine for profit. So in a sense it doesn't matter that much as long as there is some sort of market stability so we can calculate our ROI and stay on that path without adding months and months to it.

[QuintLeo]

Difficulty should show a drop after the halfing - older miners going unprofitable and being taken offline - but with the S9 and quite likely other 14/16nm full custom gen miners showing up around that time or shortly after, we'll most likely have a difficulty that IS higher than right at the halfing before October 2016.

[leowonderful]

And 2012 we were a mostly gpu network coins were around 8 to 12 usd.

So a small drop 10 to 15 % in 2012 is not surprising.

This 1/2 ing I see 18 to 30 percent drop.

But it will recover in August and September .

it is probably price-dependent.
at btc $450 you are probably right (18-30%)
at btc 677 maybe 10-15%
at btc 800 5% or less.

incidentally, in 2012 difficulty dropped not AT block size change, but 4 weeks later.

If the network drops 30% I'm basically all in at that point. It will usually take some time for people to know and accept that mining won't be profitable at their electricity rate and hardware anymore. So until then I only see it going up with the price.

It's not likely it'll drop THAT much, as one s9 replaces (in hashrate)about 4 S7s and 12 S5s... don't even make me go on. A few S9's can replace the hashrate of an entire mining farm, and we'll probably only see a small dip in the difficulty and hashrate, so don't get too excited. My guess is around 15% or less will drop out, but I'm being pretty generous and it could be much less since the S7s and avalon 6's will keep mining past the halving at this btc price.

[QuintLeo]

Do keep in mind how MANY S5/S7/SP20 generation miners are out there - the S7s might keep mining after the halfing, with the recent Bitcoin price runup they should still be profitable - but that's a LOT of S5/SP20 generation gear that probably WILL become unprofitable.

 I'm not guessing a 30% hashrate drop due to the halfing, but I AM guessing more than 10% and perhaps 20% ballpark short-term.

 30% would need a significant number of S7/A6/B11 units to be taken offline - and I don't see that happening right around the halfing.

[-ck]

I should also point out that before the last halving, the global hashrate went up for a while while people brought back online old inefficient hardware for the last few blocks on the chance they'd get one of the last 50BTC blocks before retiring that old hardware forever as a complete loss. I expect something similar will happen this time too.

[Searing]

My concern on halving is 'sideways' so to speak..what I mean is no clue what this may mean for LTC price

I'm mining LTC to BTC and wondering if LTC will continue to plug along at 0.007- 0.010 ltc to btc after halving or get much better or much worse...

or

If the halving has NO effect and LTC just plugs along in the usual ratio rise it sorta has been of about 0.008 to 0.001 ratio of ltc to btc ie have no real effect on my process of LTC to BTC


anyway with Titan Scrypt miners I may be able to keep up with this for more then a bit.

[leowonderful]

I should also point out that before the last halving, the global hashrate went up for a while while people brought back online old inefficient hardware for the last few blocks on the chance they'd get one of the last 50BTC blocks before retiring that old hardware forever as a complete loss. I expect something similar will happen this time too.

That's pretty interesting. I'll look at it, but it definitely could happen. We're capped at difficulty right now, and the new S9's have almost no effect on the network. Either there's too few of them to do something like that (like bitmain mentioned, limited stock) or there's enough, but the S9's are replacing older miners fast enough that the network hashrate isn't dropping. Difficulty is dropping, though, so if it continues to go down, hashrate might spike like you said.

[RocketSingh]

I should also point out that before the last halving, the global hashrate went up for a while while people brought back online old inefficient hardware for the last few blocks on the chance they'd get one of the last 50BTC blocks before retiring that old hardware forever as a complete loss. I expect something similar will happen this time too.

In that case, difficulty might go above 200 billion and go down in next adjustment.

[Albert Hamilton]

I should also point out that before the last halving, the global hashrate went up for a while while people brought back online old inefficient hardware for the last few blocks on the chance they'd get one of the last 50BTC blocks before retiring that old hardware forever as a complete loss. I expect something similar will happen this time too.

In that case, difficulty might go above 200 billion and go down in next adjustment.

So, ultimately it settled above 200 billion.

[philipma1957]

I should also point out that before the last halving, the global hashrate went up for a while while people brought back online old inefficient hardware for the last few blocks on the chance they'd get one of the last 50BTC blocks before retiring that old hardware forever as a complete loss. I expect something similar will happen this time too.

In that case, difficulty might go above 200 billion and go down in next adjustment.

So, ultimately it settled above 200 billion.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,398,925,331

Estimated Next Difficulty:   212,371,195,830 (-0.48%) <<<<< dropping a bit  so we could go south of 200 in the future
Adjust time:   After 539 Blocks, About 3.8 days

Hashrate(?):   1,426,783,548 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

[Gahs]

Difficulty will decrease after the halving. If diff increases it's due to newer hardware and btc price rising instead.

I don't understand, lots of people are saying that the halving will increase mining difficulty. Now you are saying it will decrease, precisely what determines the mining difficulty?

[Flying Hellfish]

Difficulty will decrease after the halving. If diff increases it's due to newer hardware and btc price rising instead.

I don't understand, lots of people are saying that the halving will increase mining difficulty. Now you are saying it will decrease, precisely what determines the mining difficulty?

Global Hashrate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

[philipma1957]

Difficulty will decrease after the halving. If diff increases it's due to newer hardware and btc price rising instead.

I don't understand, lots of people are saying that the halving will increase mining difficulty. Now you are saying it will decrease, precisely what determines the mining difficulty?

How many of us fools willing to run miners

[Bill Gates]

Difficulty will decrease after the halving. If diff increases it's due to newer hardware and btc price rising instead.

I don't understand, lots of people are saying that the halving will increase mining difficulty. Now you are saying it will decrease, precisely what determines the mining difficulty?

How many of us fools willing to run miners

It depends on how many miners in China are running with near zero electricity cost.

[RocketSingh]

Revisited this thread after a long time. Difficulty jumped over 200 billion at block halving. Interestingly, within a few months, difficulty is now on the verge of kissing 300 billion...

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[wheelz1200]

Revisited this thread after a long time. Difficulty jumped over 200 billion at block halving. Interestingly, within a few months, difficulty is now on the verge of kissing 300 billion...

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

There is no slowing it down anytime soon, with mines with access to very little electricity costs they will just keep beefing up.  Wonder when it will actually slow down though?

[Angelina Jolie]

Revisited this thread after a long time. Difficulty jumped over 200 billion at block halving. Interestingly, within a few months, difficulty is now on the verge of kissing 300 billion...

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

There is no slowing it down anytime soon, with mines with access to very little electricity costs they will just keep beefing up.  Wonder when it will actually slow down though?

But, this would ultimately lead to more mining centralization, which is not good.

[alh]

I think we can let this thread dies a natural death since we are approaching 6 months after the halving, and difficulty is more than 286 Billion.

[CoinLearn]

I think we can let this thread dies a natural death since we are approaching 6 months after the halving, and difficulty is more than 286 Billion.

Crossed 300 billion today...

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty