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Author Topic: I think we need to look back at history...  (Read 2473 times)
Anonymous
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June 11, 2011, 05:05:38 PM
 #1

Correct me if I am wrong; however, in the past we have had huge declines such as these and only a few time cycles later the price went to new heights. I see very little to fear.
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June 11, 2011, 05:23:55 PM
 #2

it's pretty volatile alright.

chart up to 8th June 2011 - didn't download the data for last few days yet.

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June 11, 2011, 05:24:33 PM
 #3

I really don't think anyone is fearing right now. Except maybe for those who bought at really high prices haha.
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June 11, 2011, 05:33:33 PM
 #4

Yes, this has happened a few times.  As recently as a month ago, in fact.  We went from around $9 to below $6 in a few short hours.
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June 11, 2011, 05:41:26 PM
 #5

all i see is early adopters taking profits.  this strikes me as perfectly reasonable and expected.

i'm pleased they've done so well.
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June 11, 2011, 05:44:22 PM
 #6

I really don't think anyone is fearing right now. Except maybe for those who bought at really high prices haha.

I dunno.. watching BTC drop to half its value in a day gave me the willies.

OTOH I'm not too worried in the long term.
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June 11, 2011, 05:45:03 PM
 #7

all i see is early adopters taking profits.  this strikes me as perfectly reasonable and expected.

i'm pleased they've done so well.

Maybe.  Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.  I'd like to think early adopters would be a bit more cautious at cashing out.  Not just because they could do violence to the market, but because, at least in the most recent case, the person who cashed out could have very probably made a lot more had they done it patiently over several days instead of in a single transaction at low volume.
Anonymous
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June 11, 2011, 05:46:56 PM
 #8

all i see is early adopters taking profits.  this strikes me as perfectly reasonable and expected.

i'm pleased they've done so well.

Maybe.  Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.  I'd like to think early adopters would be a bit more cautious at cashing out.  Not just because they could do violence to the market, but because, at least in the most recent case, the person who cashed out could have very probably made a lot more had they done it patiently over several days instead of in a single transaction at low volume.
They shouldn't. The more wealthy adopters who cash out, the better. It's a greater mass of the blockchain in the hands of more people. It may cause a little abrasion here and there but it's better than a fatal rupture in the long-term.
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June 11, 2011, 05:50:07 PM
 #9

all i see is early adopters taking profits.  this strikes me as perfectly reasonable and expected.

i'm pleased they've done so well.

Maybe.  Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.  I'd like to think early adopters would be a bit more cautious at cashing out.  Not just because they could do violence to the market, but because, at least in the most recent case, the person who cashed out could have very probably made a lot more had they done it patiently over several days instead of in a single transaction at low volume.
They shouldn't. The more wealthy adopters who cash out, the better. It's a greater mass of the blockchain in the hands of more people. It may cause a little abrasion here and there but it's better than a fatal rupture in the long-term.

Oh, I agree that it's good for bitcoin in general when they cash out and their coins get distributed into more hands.  All I'm saying is that it's better for the market and themselves when they don't simply take a huge dump on the market.
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June 11, 2011, 05:51:40 PM
 #10

all i see is early adopters taking profits.  this strikes me as perfectly reasonable and expected.

i'm pleased they've done so well.

Maybe.  Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.  I'd like to think early adopters would be a bit more cautious at cashing out.  Not just because they could do violence to the market, but because, at least in the most recent case, the person who cashed out could have very probably made a lot more had they done it patiently over several days instead of in a single transaction at low volume.

pretty clearly not.

Quote
Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.

if you look through blockexplorer, you'll see that the 17,000 BTC transaction which precipitated this correction was made up of very old (2009 & 2010), mined blocks, with no internal transactions.  i'm reasonably sure this was a very early adopter.
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June 11, 2011, 05:52:32 PM
 #11

Correct me if I am wrong; however, in the past we have had huge declines such as these and only a few time cycles later the price went to new heights. I see very little to fear.

totally agree.  and despite what the fear mongers on the forum say, they too believe it and want to capitalize on the selloff by BUYING.  otherwise, why would they be wasting their time posting FUD?
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June 11, 2011, 05:53:20 PM
 #12

it's pretty volatile alright.

chart up to 8th June 2011 - didn't download the data for last few days yet.



can you link me to this graph?
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June 11, 2011, 05:55:35 PM
 #13

does this work

http://i.imgur.com/nFfYN.png
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June 11, 2011, 05:59:49 PM
 #14

all i see is early adopters taking profits.  this strikes me as perfectly reasonable and expected.

i'm pleased they've done so well.

Maybe.  Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.  I'd like to think early adopters would be a bit more cautious at cashing out.  Not just because they could do violence to the market, but because, at least in the most recent case, the person who cashed out could have very probably made a lot more had they done it patiently over several days instead of in a single transaction at low volume.

pretty clearly not.

Quote
Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.

if you look through blockexplorer, you'll see that the 17,000 BTC transaction which precipitated this correction was made up of very old (2009 & 2010), mined blocks, with no internal transactions.  i'm reasonably sure this was a very early adopter.

How can you tell through blockexplorer what coins were involved in an MtGox transaction?  I'm sincerely asking.  I guess I assumed that internally to MtGox you weren't necessarily selling the coins you sent in.
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June 11, 2011, 06:05:08 PM
 #15


what i'm asking for is a site that i can regularly check this graph update.
Anonymous
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June 11, 2011, 06:06:07 PM
 #16


what i'm asking for is a site that i can regularly check this graph update.
I'm sure you can match the trade data on MtGox.
Jaime Frontero
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June 11, 2011, 06:06:21 PM
 #17

all i see is early adopters taking profits.  this strikes me as perfectly reasonable and expected.

i'm pleased they've done so well.

Maybe.  Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.  I'd like to think early adopters would be a bit more cautious at cashing out.  Not just because they could do violence to the market, but because, at least in the most recent case, the person who cashed out could have very probably made a lot more had they done it patiently over several days instead of in a single transaction at low volume.

pretty clearly not.

Quote
Or, could be somebody who recently invested a lot of money, got spooked by the price turning down, and tried to recover at least a portion of what they put in.

if you look through blockexplorer, you'll see that the 17,000 BTC transaction which precipitated this correction was made up of very old (2009 & 2010), mined blocks, with no internal transactions.  i'm reasonably sure this was a very early adopter.

How can you tell through blockexplorer what coins were involved in an MtGox transaction?  I'm sincerely asking.  I guess I assumed that internally to MtGox you weren't necessarily selling the coins you sent in.

go here:

http://blockexplorer.com/address/155kHCZstYaosoGRxthF1zsZFVFheVFPLS

then click on the blocks, one at a time.
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June 11, 2011, 06:17:36 PM
 #18



if you look through blockexplorer, you'll see that the 17,000 BTC transaction which precipitated this correction was made up of very old (2009 & 2010), mined blocks, with no internal transactions.  i'm reasonably sure this was a very early adopter.


How can you tell through blockexplorer what coins were involved in an MtGox transaction?  I'm sincerely asking.  I guess I assumed that internally to MtGox you weren't necessarily selling the coins you sent in.


go here:

http://blockexplorer.com/address/155kHCZstYaosoGRxthF1zsZFVFheVFPLS

then click on the blocks, one at a time.

nice detective work Jaime.  so an early adopter miner was responsible for the selloff starting at 20 and taking it down to 13?  the doom and gloomers got their wish.
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June 11, 2011, 06:36:34 PM
 #19


what i'm asking for is a site that i can regularly check this graph update.

sorry, I just did it manually. Not automated and I'm not a coder so not that easy for me to automate it. (yet anyway)
Jaime Frontero
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June 11, 2011, 06:44:48 PM
 #20



if you look through blockexplorer, you'll see that the 17,000 BTC transaction which precipitated this correction was made up of very old (2009 & 2010), mined blocks, with no internal transactions.  i'm reasonably sure this was a very early adopter.


How can you tell through blockexplorer what coins were involved in an MtGox transaction?  I'm sincerely asking.  I guess I assumed that internally to MtGox you weren't necessarily selling the coins you sent in.


go here:

http://blockexplorer.com/address/155kHCZstYaosoGRxthF1zsZFVFheVFPLS

then click on the blocks, one at a time.

nice detective work Jaime.  so an early adopter miner was responsible for the selloff starting at 20 and taking it down to 13?  the doom and gloomers got their wish.

it wasn't my work.  i only noticed it.

"i stand on  the shoulders of giants..." ~Bernard of Chartres
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