BFL or Avalon

[wrenchmonkey]

A bunch of nonsense about never considering any variables besides my own hatred for BFL...

This explains why you're impossible to reason with. You don't consider anything except your present emotions...

[k9quaint]

I am asserting that your last sentence is marginalizing other factors.  It isn't really as "Simple" as "He gambled on BFL delivering and lost."  Anyone, even today, who is purchasing a mining device that they don't receive instantly in their possession is gambling on a number of variables and (hopefully) considers the potential difficulty increase, the exchange rate, and how the latter most noticeably drives the former.

Your sentence immediately preceding these two confirms this, in a way:

If BFL had delivered when they said they would deliver, the investment would have been good. They did not, so the investment was bad.

This discussion has been completely sidetracked on irrelevant statements.
Let us refocus it to what was originally stated by hexed and that I disagreed with:

Those that kept their BFL preorders, or even made new orders, look likely to come out ahead over avalon batch 3.

No! I paid nealry 200 BTC for a Single SC in June 2012. There is almost no chance to get this money back so in the end BFL was a bad investment. The Avalon batch 3 was sold for 80 BTC (?) and nearly the same hashrate. Avalon already delivered this kind of miners while BFL is still in the prototype state with the singles. It's quite realistic that an Avalon batch 3 will reach break-even. For the BFL single I see no chance. Unfortunately I ordered a single (and a bASIC) and not an Avalon so bitcoin mining is history for me before it even started.

This is such a lame bullshit statement and what I call "cherry picking" your circumstances.  No matter what the outcome, you will ALWAYS be right because you are the type of customer that has to complain..

Hexed is wrong, Mezzomix is right.

My reply was:

There is zero speculation involved. We do not need to consider exchange rates. He paid 200BTC for a product that is supposed to create BTC. In October 2012 (according to your stats), the device would produce 300 BTC per month. Unfortunately, due to delay in shipment, it may not generate 200BTC in it's lifetime.  The only reason for this is the difficulty has risen over the intervening period.

We do not need to consider why difficulty rose. We do not need to consider alternative investments like Avalon or ASICMiner shares. We do not need to consider exchange rates. Nobody has yet explained why getting less than 200 BTC back was good for Mezzomix.

This explains why you're impossible to reason with.

The more you pretend that Mezzomix made money by ordering from BFL, the more people realize that you are just here to deny all anti-BFL positions.
When people read your posts, they will realize that the only people left defending BFL are those that cannot do simple math.

[hexed]

Hexed is wrong, Mezzomix is right.

My reply was:

There is zero speculation involved. We do not need to consider exchange rates. He paid 200BTC for a product that is supposed to create BTC. In October 2012 (according to your stats), the device would produce 300 BTC per month. Unfortunately, due to delay in shipment, it may not generate 200BTC in it's lifetime.  The only reason for this is the difficulty has risen over the intervening period.

We do not need to consider why difficulty rose. We do not need to consider alternative investments like Avalon or ASICMiner shares. We do not need to consider exchange rates. Nobody has yet explained why getting less than 200 BTC back was good for Mezzomix.

ahhh yes, as I had mentioned...

...They are basically saying that the exchange rate has absolutely nothing to do with their investment in BTC.  So yes, I agree that if your sole purpose was to mine BTC and hold on to BTC with no regard to how much they are actually WORTH in USD.. then yes, you will not get back an equal amount of BTC....  

..but that is ok, k9quaint will continue to argue a point even though the other SEVERAL factors I included make no sense.  It's like saying..

Mezzomix said he wants to be launched into space duck taped to a homemade rocket!  It is possible so you are wrong!!!  When the actually premises of the idea is true (yes, if you had a nice enough rocket, you could certainly launch yourself into space).. but the truth of the matter is, he will die before he gets there.. since you know.. there are other FACTORS at play there.  But instead of seeing how ridiculous the idea is, you just argue the fact that it is possible to prove a point.  A point that most people would not care about.

If Mezzomix thought that when he ordered the BFL device, that you would be able to mine MORE BTC than what you purchased it for, then in the words of the Knight in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.. "He chose... poorly".

When I ordered in August 2012, I thought "No matter if I get my device now, or later, I'm betting on the price of BTC to go up when the reward halves so I think I will still make a profit."  Now I had done my due diligence and found out that they were notorious for late shipping, over promising and under delivering.. so I personally thought that the shipping would be late.  Of course I didn't think it would be THIS late. Whether or not the price went up because of the reward halving, I am still going to profit.  In fact, my 3 GPU's I have are still mining away making anywhere from $150-$250 a month, and they only equal ~1.35GH/s.  If I can still profit with them, then I'll be just fine with ~40GH/s of devices.

[k9quaint]

Hexed is wrong, Mezzomix is right.

My reply was:

There is zero speculation involved. We do not need to consider exchange rates. He paid 200BTC for a product that is supposed to create BTC. In October 2012 (according to your stats), the device would produce 300 BTC per month. Unfortunately, due to delay in shipment, it may not generate 200BTC in it's lifetime.  The only reason for this is the difficulty has risen over the intervening period.

We do not need to consider why difficulty rose. We do not need to consider alternative investments like Avalon or ASICMiner shares. We do not need to consider exchange rates. Nobody has yet explained why getting less than 200 BTC back was good for Mezzomix.

ahhh yes, as I had mentioned...

...They are basically saying that the exchange rate has absolutely nothing to do with their investment in BTC.  So yes, I agree that if your sole purpose was to mine BTC and hold on to BTC with no regard to how much they are actually WORTH in USD.. then yes, you will not get back an equal amount of BTC....  

The sole purpose of BFL hardware is to mine BTC. Thank you for agreeing with me and Mezzomix.

..but that is ok, k9quaint will continue to argue a point even though the other SEVERAL factors I included make no sense.  It's like saying..

More than just several. I wish you would stop including them.

Mezzomix said he wants to be launched into space duck taped to a homemade rocket!  It is possible so you are wrong!!!  When the actually premises of the idea is true (yes, if you had a nice enough rocket, you could certainly launch yourself into space).. but the truth of the matter is, he will die before he gets there.. since you know.. there are other FACTORS at play there.  But instead of seeing how ridiculous the idea is, you just argue the fact that it is possible to prove a point.  A point that most people would not care about.

You keep bringing up random statements (duct tape and rockets) that have nothing to do with the original premise which was:

If Mezzomix thought that when he ordered the BFL device, that you would be able to mine MORE BTC than what you purchased it for, then in the words of the Knight in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.. "He chose... poorly".

Yes, he chose poorly. He will probably never get his 200 BTC back. Thus his was not a "bullshit statement" as you earlier claimed and have now recanted.

When I ordered in August 2012, I thought "No matter if I get my device now, or later, I'm betting on the price of BTC to go up when the reward halves so I think I will still make a profit."  Now I had done my due diligence and found out that they were notorious for late shipping, over promising and under delivering.. so I personally thought that the shipping would be late.  Of course I didn't think it would be THIS late. Whether or not the price went up because of the reward halving, I am still going to profit.  In fact, my 3 GPU's I have are still mining away making anywhere from $150-$250 a month, and they only equal ~1.35GH/s.  If I can still profit with them, then I'll be just fine with ~40GH/s of devices.

These are also words that you have typed into a computer, but it has nothing to do with Mezzomix and his BFL order.

[k9quaint]

Wow, now you can see how well hypothetical situations work around here, hexed!  Let's go through this with some commentary:

I hope that commentary includes how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.

Hexed is wrong, Mezzomix is right.

My reply was:

There is zero speculation involved. We do not need to consider exchange rates. He paid 200BTC for a product that is supposed to create BTC. In October 2012 (according to your stats), the device would produce 300 BTC per month. Unfortunately, due to delay in shipment, it may not generate 200BTC in it's lifetime.  The only reason for this is the difficulty has risen over the intervening period.

We do not need to consider why difficulty rose. We do not need to consider alternative investments like Avalon or ASICMiner shares. We do not need to consider exchange rates. Nobody has yet explained why getting less than 200 BTC back was good for Mezzomix.

ahhh yes, as I had mentioned...

...They are basically saying that the exchange rate has absolutely nothing to do with their investment in BTC.  So yes, I agree that if your sole purpose was to mine BTC and hold on to BTC with no regard to how much they are actually WORTH in USD.. then yes, you will not get back an equal amount of BTC....  

The sole purpose of BFL hardware is to mine BTC. Thank you for agreeing with me and Mezzomix.

This is taken out of context, and spun.  Both poorly.

Note, Hexed explicitly said that it was a theoretical situation to highlight that type of thinking, and also specified that he didn't subscribe to it.

That does not explain how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.

..but that is ok, k9quaint will continue to argue a point even though the other SEVERAL factors I included make no sense.  It's like saying..

More than just several. I wish you would stop including them.

You do realize that he included the nonsensical points in the hypothetical specifically to highlight the type of reasoning you've been displaying so far, right?

Mezzomix said he wants to be launched into space duck taped to a homemade rocket!  It is possible so you are wrong!!!  When the actually premises of the idea is true (yes, if you had a nice enough rocket, you could certainly launch yourself into space).. but the truth of the matter is, he will die before he gets there.. since you know.. there are other FACTORS at play there.  But instead of seeing how ridiculous the idea is, you just argue the fact that it is possible to prove a point.  A point that most people would not care about.

You keep bringing up random statements (duct tape and rockets) that have nothing to do with the original premise which was:

I can admit that if you didn't get the above point, then it's likewise probably getting difficult to keep up with abstraction here, but as an observer, I understood what hexed meant.

It does not explain how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.

If Mezzomix thought that when he ordered the BFL device, that you would be able to mine MORE BTC than what you purchased it for, then in the words of the Knight in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.. "He chose... poorly".

Yes, he chose poorly. He will probably never get his 200 BTC back. Thus his was not a "bullshit statement" as you earlier claimed and have now recanted.

No.  You're twisting statements around for your own convenience, again.  This is the part of hexed's statement that highlighted the "bullshit":

Still no explanation of how Mezzomix is better off with less than the 200 BTC he started with.

So with all of this said.. YOU would not be here today complaining about the 200BTC you never made back.  YOU would be complaining that it will take forever to make back the 1200-1300$ it cost for you to buy the BFL device.

People like you, and there are plenty in this forum, like to mold their argument based on whatever makes them win instead of using common sense.

When I ordered in August 2012, I thought "No matter if I get my device now, or later, I'm betting on the price of BTC to go up when the reward halves so I think I will still make a profit."  Now I had done my due diligence and found out that they were notorious for late shipping, over promising and under delivering.. so I personally thought that the shipping would be late.  Of course I didn't think it would be THIS late. Whether or not the price went up because of the reward halving, I am still going to profit.  In fact, my 3 GPU's I have are still mining away making anywhere from $150-$250 a month, and they only equal ~1.35GH/s.  If I can still profit with them, then I'll be just fine with ~40GH/s of devices.

These are also words that you have typed into a computer, but it has nothing to do with Mezzomix and his BFL order.

Sure it does, because it is one representation of a rational version of a consumer who understands opportunity cost - the opposite of the consumer who twists the exchange rate around to make their value-at-a-point-in-time seem greater than it really is/was.

We do not need to discuss opportunity cost to determine that Mezzomix is worse off for buying BFL. If you want to demonstrate that Mezzomix is even worse off because of the lost opportunity cost of using that 200 BTC instead of having BFL hold it for 11 months and counting.

There is no need to consider exchange rate because Mezzomix paid BTC for his order. BFL allows you to pay BTC for orders. Bitcoin leaves Mezzomix's wallet, and BFL gives him a pre-order for equipment that does nothing but generate BTC. You are including other variables because you are desperate to deflect this fact.
You and hexed brought up exchange rate, not Mezzomix and not I.

Neither of you are willing to explain how Mezzomix is better off with less BTC than he started with.
Your tedious convolutions only expose you as blind shills who attack everything that criticizes BFL.

[hexed]

Thank you ThatDGuy

couldn't have said it better myself.

[k9quaint]

Thank you ThatDGuy

couldn't have said it better myself.

Mezzomix paid 200 BTC for a device from BFL that cannot earn 200 BTC.
You have agreed that this is not good.

Mezzomix is entitled to complain because the only thing that could have changed his fortune is if BFL delivered the Single before the difficulty went ballistic.
There is no current or future exchange rate into any alternate currency that can make Mezzomix's investment in BFL better than not investing in BFL when he did. Past exchange rates cannot change because they are in the past. So exchange rates are not relevant. We are not measuring just how screwed Mezzomix was by BFL, we are simply saying that he was better off not buying a BFL single back in June 2012. This is simple math. Obviously, the more valuable BTC become in USD, the more USD Mezzomix has lost. But we are not talking about losing USD, we are talking about losing BTC by spending BTC to buy a device to mine BTC.

All hope is not lost however. If difficulty ever stops rising for long enough, then Mezzomix will eventually earn his BTC back.
Maybe all the Avalons stop working due to shoddy manufacturing...

[hexed]

Neither of you are willing to explain how Mezzomix is better off with less BTC than he started with.
Your tedious convolutions only expose you as blind shills who attack everything that criticizes BFL.

I love how you have resorted to changing the argument.  Find once where I said SPECIFICALLY that him choosing BFL SPECIFICALLY was a good or bad idea.  You can pick anything out of 1 sentence, but it requires you to actually COMPREHEND what you are reading to understand the whole paragraph.  It is not our fault that you just read things without actually thinking or comprehending.

The argument and conversation was specifically based on the fact that he said he would not be able to recoup his 200BTC.  It is not our fault after all of your rambling that you forgot what you were arguing about.  My argument towards him was related to him not being able to get his 200BTC back and the fact that he was comparing spending 200BTC in june (at the time worth 1299) and could have spent 80BTC for Avalon batch #3 in March (worth ~$7500).  Plain and simple.  

We already discussed the fact that you don't care what the price of bitcoin is, you just want bitcoins.  The rest of us want bitcoins because they are worth money.

[k9quaint]

Neither of you are willing to explain how Mezzomix is better off with less BTC than he started with.
Your tedious convolutions only expose you as blind shills who attack everything that criticizes BFL.

I love how you have resorted to changing the argument.  Find once where I said SPECIFICALLY that him choosing BFL SPECIFICALLY was a good or bad idea.  You can pick anything out of 1 sentence, but it requires you to actually COMPREHEND what you are reading to understand the whole paragraph.  It is not our fault that you just read things without actually thinking or comprehending.

The argument has not changed. If he had not bought BFL, he would still have the option to spend 80 of his 200 BTC to buy an Avalon batch 3 and still be able to recoup that investment.

The argument and conversation was specifically based on the fact that he said he would not be able to recoup his 200BTC.  It is not our fault after all of your rambling that you forgot what you were arguing about.  

I never forgot what I was arguing about. You confused the issue with exchange rates. No exchange was needed. The BFL's could be bought with BTC. The Avalon miner could be bought with BTC. They both only produce BTC. Mezzomix had BTC.

My argument towards him was related to him not being able to get his 200BTC back and the fact that he was comparing spending 200BTC in june (at the time worth 1299) and could have spent 80BTC for Avalon batch #3 in March (worth ~$7500).  Plain and simple.  

Compare apples to apples please. Stop converting the BTC (which can buy both Avalons and BFL units) into other units of exchange at various times to try to make BFL look good.

We already discussed the fact that you don't care what the price of bitcoin is, you just want bitcoins.  The rest of us want bitcoins because they are worth money.

Compare apples to apples. He spent BTC to gain more BTC and instead gained less. Simple. Straightforward. No exchange rate needed to illustrate that he lost out picking BFL in June 2012.

The batch 3 Avalon unit can still earn back it's 80 BTC and therefore can still be profitable. Maybe BTC are each worth $1 each by then, maybe $100 each, maybe $1000 each, but we don't need to speculate on the future exchange rate. As long as the Avalon can earn more than 80 BTC it can be profitable.

Had he not spent his 200 BTC on BFL he could have gotten a much better deal with Avalon later on because the 200 BTC would be available for an alternative investment. One possible alternative investment could have gotten over twice the hash rate. Simple, Straightforward. No exchange rate needed to illustrate that.

[zax983]

watching

[mik3]

uhh did you see that the last post was made nearly 3 months ago? everything in this thread is now irrelevant.

[Bicknellski]

Nyet and Nyet.

Find another option.