How to become a better trader in uncertain conditions!

[barbara44]

Every things take time to multiply, some multiplies with whole number and some with integer. We should have a power of patience to wait. If we invest in trade and want a profit from first day then we can’t see it. But if we wait and see the profit after a long time then we can see the profits certainly.

[1715273822]

1715273822

[yayayo]

A lot of advice is given in this thread of doing things somehow "differently" to become a successful trader. However I doubt that most of these recommendation is really helpful, since they can't be operationalized in a consistent way. They lack proper definition.

I'd argue that the vast majority of individual trading "strategies" are not consistently successful. If a trading method can't be implemented as a logical algorithm by defining all information that lead to a certain trading decision, I would not expect a positive return from it in the long run.

In general the probability to exit trading with a negative return is far higher than being successful. Traders tend to overestimate their ability to predict market movements, because they generate their predictions from the assumption that past developments have something to do with the future. But this assumption is fundamentally flawed.

ya.ya.yo!

[AlgoSwan]

Traders tend to overestimate their ability to predict market movements, because they generate their predictions from the assumption that past developments have something to do with the future. But this assumption is fundamentally flawed.

That's correct. Most of the guys writing trading books, courses, and hosting TV shows are not professional money managers. Hard truth: if they were such outstanding traders, they would be trading professionally. That is where the money is and that is where the cream rises to. The best traders in the world are likely guys whose names you have never heard.

[Herbert2020]

Traders tend to overestimate their ability to predict market movements, because they generate their predictions from the assumption that past developments have something to do with the future. But this assumption is fundamentally flawed.

That's correct. Most of the guys writing trading books, courses, and hosting TV shows are not professional money managers. Hard truth: if they were such outstanding traders, they would be trading professionally. That is where the money is and that is where the cream rises to. The best traders in the world are likely guys whose names you have never heard.

well, that is not entirely true.
i agree that many of those courses,... are made by people with little trading knowledge and they are only looking for selling their product and making some little money.
but there are still a lot of information and books on the internet that are written by experts that contain valuable contents. you just have to be able to find the difference and only use the good ones.

[AlgoSwan]

13. Confidence / Overconfidence: Confidence in trading styles is similar to the way a busy cook relates to his pot mitt. The wise cook, no matter how harried, always takes the time to put on his mitt before he grabs a pot off his stove.

So it’s not the inanimate mitt that protects him; the bottom line is that it’s the cook himself. Knowing when it’s necessary to put that glove on and having the good sense to do it is what he’s really relying on. Accordingly, the crypto trader must fully understand that it’s his judgment, much more than any system he’s learned, that affects his trading the most.

Confidence, just like the cook’s pot mitt, is a tool. If the crypto trader’s confidence wildly balloons and he becomes zealous, stubborn, or careless, then he’s just like the heedless, inexperienced cook who thinks he’ll get by without his mitt. In both of those scenarios, overconfidence burns.

(P.S I’m aware of no chart pattern or crypto analysis methodology that shows you a confidence factor. No system will tell you to buy or sell with 100 percent certainty—because there simply is no such certainty!

But we crypto traders need confidence—lots of it—in spite of the uncertainty. Without that mental asset, there would be no trading profits. Too much of it, however, can destroy us. Confidence it is a tool that must be utilized, but always judiciously. Otherwise, it gets in the way. It tosses good judgment in the trash. To literally understand this, you need only to think of the hurryup cook who doesn’t use his mitt when he should. You know what will happen to his hand, and then his ability to work.

For the crypto trader, overconfidence is that detrimental. Mastering confidence as a tool, not an obstacle, is a lifelong, ongoing process. I am still growing in that process, and at this point I’ve learned some reliable skills in it.

But during my first weeks of BTC trading, my confidence levels were overzealous: They were hardly a powerful tool. Soon I began to understand that overconfidence led me astray into two classic trading mistakes. Those mistakes are ignoring your predetermined stop/loss price and holding too long.)

[AlgoSwan]

13b. Predetermined SL:

I enter into a trade, it immediately goes against me, and I hold. This is after the triggering of my predetermined stop/loss price—and I don’t give a damn.

To hold is an act of stubbornness. It’s a lethally wishful kind of thinking. This is where I’m allowing my confidence to become, not a tool, but something irrational. Now I’m just being a daredevil, like a bungee-jumper. I’m bouncing in midair, and risking a deadly collision.

And then I make things worse for myself. I buy more—I average down.

At this point I’ve blundered into the minefield of way-too-confident trading. To buy more at a lower level, after the initial trade has gone against me? What was I thinking? Now my emotions control me. I got into a trade and it down-slid, and now I’m irritated and worried, and I’m kicking myself for failing to wait for it to decline before buying in the first place.

So basically, I’ve now bucked the system. Now all I’m doing is gambling. I’m betting that the price will go back up, with the faith of the fools at casinos.

Holding too long:

I’m in a trade and the price goes up, but in my opinion, not enough. So my overconfidence tells me to hold for just a while longer. Then (of course!) the BTC price retreats to break-even, so I’ve lost out on a good trade. That same trade might even continue to retrace into the red.

It doesn’t get any more ugly than that. I feel like an idiot for failing to sell when I had a profit and I should have had a clear plan of exit.

So now I could see that it was getting imperative to harness my confidence, somehow. To grab it and throw it onto a table, deep inside my head, and strap it down and hone it into a tool that would fit my needs.

After a day of that self-search, I understood what to do. My confidence, if made precise with prudence, would help me pick my own realistic entry and exit price levels. Overconfidence amounted to a careless lack of that precision.

I needed to trust and never abandon a system of reliable stop/loss and limits. I’ve never regretted those insights.

Trading with confidence is all about being familiar with your cryptocurrency, and prudently sticking to your plans. Trading with overconfidence is neglecting to know your crypto and haphazardly changing the exit points while already in the trade. If you’re an amateur trader, that’s a very perilous stratagem. Only the experienced trader can handle it, and even he might regret it.

If you think you can trade like a pro, then most likely you’re overconfident, and most likely, you’ll lose your shirt. Stick to the program, every time! Be reasonably certain, not reckless! If you’re a born risk-taker or daredevil, it will take force of will to achieve that.

[enhu]

One way to trade good still is by follow the buy order and sell order of the experienced traders on exchanges.
you need not to be an expert by doing this yet of course you should at least know what they are doing.

[AlgoSwan]

14. The most dangerous time for any trader occurs right after a major loss. The instinct for revenge trading (the desire to get it all back at once) can be far more damaging than the initial loss, leading many
traders to make impulsive, irrational decisions that often lead to complete destruction of the account.

Protect your capital—Protect yourself by using Crypto Options:

Clint Eastwood would be a great crypto trader because he told the Million Dollar Baby that rule number one in boxing is to protect yourself. And I think the same is true in crypto trading. If you want to trade, your capital is everything. So, if you want to be a great trader, you have got to protect that capital. No capital, no trading, no life and its the same whether you want to be a Million Dollar Baby in boxing or a Million Dollar Baby in crypto trading, I think it’s the same thing—protect your capital.

(P.S The market will forgive many things including bad, even stupid trades, but it will not forgive the loss of capital. Once all of your capital is gone there is no opportunity to recover. Learn how to protect yourself by using crypto options first.)

[Stedsm]

15. Always use TP/SL.
You must have a set goal and only that should be reached, no more greed. If you have decided to get out at a specific point, just get out without touching your take profit, and never let your loss make you go bankrupt. Always use it to minimize your losses because something is better than nothing as it would help your recover in the end.

[Nascor]

you should always try to diversify and "hedge"

hendging is when you are buying something which "reverses" your initial investment (to some extent)

for example, when shares are high (stocks etc.) gold tends to decrease in value, and vice versa

so, if you have a lot of shares, buy some gold as this will minimize your loss in a downtrend

[zombie6]

Thanks for the read offered some useful insight, enjoyed my cup of coffee over it

Are you under the shpeka? I fucking can not understand what you wrote, dude 
having a cup of coffee  aaaaa

[deisik]

14. The most dangerous time for any trader occurs right after a major loss. The instinct for revenge trading (the desire to get it all back at once) can be far more damaging than the initial loss, leading many
traders to make impulsive, irrational decisions that often lead to complete destruction of the account.

Protect your capital—Protect yourself by using Crypto Options:

Clint Eastwood would be a great crypto trader because he told the Million Dollar Baby that rule number one in boxing is to protect yourself. And I think the same is true in crypto trading. If you want to trade, your capital is everything. So, if you want to be a great trader, you have got to protect that capital. No capital, no trading, no life and its the same whether you want to be a Million Dollar Baby in boxing or a Million Dollar Baby in crypto trading, I think it’s the same thing—protect your capital

Some people can learn it only the hard way

While some cannot learn it at all. I once tried to explain to novice traders here that their primary objective (at least, first time) should be not earning insane or just handsome profits (that will never be an issue once they learn how to trade sanely and safely) but preserving their capital at all costs in the first place. Needless to say, I was basically laughed at and humiliated by all those crowds of wannabe traders flooding the forum back then. I'm curious where they are all now