Fair price of bitcoin after a crash

[Melbustus]

$173.70
( See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=151165.msg1604466#msg1604466 )

[jwzguy]

Keep dreaming op.

[BitPirate]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial.

Sell then.

I don't see anything but long-term positive growth in BTC:USD.

Sure, it's easy to feel a bit queasy watching the price rise like crazy earlier this month, but you know what? The more new money comes in, the less risk there is. Of course BTC is continuing to climb.

The way the recent chain fork was reflected in the market was very telling. A huge sell-off followed almost immediately by a strong rebound. People want Bitcoins.

If I wake up tomorrow and the price has dropped by 15%, will I sweat? Will I hell, it will be another great chance to buy more BTC. If the market can rebound immediately after a chain fork, I call that resilient.

Each of the spikes in recent volatility has subdivided Bitcoin ownership further -- as time goes on, the market is becoming more stable, not less. It's not looking like much of a ponzi scheme now, is it?

It's time to stop sweating and start earning. Quit daytrading and watching curves.

People will always sell, as they have to take profits some day. And there will be people right there waiting ready to snap up their BTC. After all, what else is there to invest in right now?

I'm more than happy to keep US$ in my exchange account, but clear out all BTC to my offline wallet.

Maybe there will be a permanent fall in value when a better investment opportunity comes along. Until then, don't hold your breath.

This is not even considering the huge potential of Bitcoin as a payment medium. I do freelance application development. People usually pay me with PayPal. I've started to offer BTC as an option and now suggest it first. Why the hell wouldn't I? A payment that will probably go up in value in the medium term, Vs. the risk of PayPal refusing to release my funds, taking a cut, and having to constantly keep my PayPal balance at 0 because I don't trust them. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way.

The fact that not many sites accept BTC payment right now is a plus, not a drawback. I call that untapped potential. Companies' CFOs aren't stupid. They will come.

[yokosan]

I am of the opinion that IF the price reaches $20 again the ensuing panic selling will drive the price sub $10 for a brief period of time (4-5 hours) before rebounding to around $20.

I believe ~$20 is the true price of Bitcoin right now.

These events will occur on or before May 1st.

[BitPirate]

I am of the opinion that IF the price reaches $20 again the ensuing panic selling will drive the price sub $10 for a brief period of time (4-5 hours) before rebounding to around $20.

I believe ~$20 is the true price of Bitcoin right now.

Yes, and IF I wake up tomorrow and find that my leg has been gnawed off by micro-bears, I'll probably die of blood loss.

The thing you have to remember is, that neither of these things is likely to happen. A breakage in the Bitcoin client didn't kill the market. So, what exactly is going to? Perhaps some sort of crackdown by a government?  Other than that....  

For everyone who sells off in a crisis, there is a buyer waiting.

...and two more yelling at their screens who can't buy because of lag.

[dmiceman]

A breakage in the Bitcoin client didn't kill the market.

Yes, but why? Was not that warned you? Deep inside your mind, haven't that tells you what something is very wrong with the prices?

Seriously, this is ridiculous. The second major trouble with bitcoin and… nothing happens! Are you believe in BTC holders that much?

By the way, proximity of crash was seen before 12/03. It was inevitable anyway.

[BitPirate]

A breakage in the Bitcoin client didn't kill the market.

Yes, but why? Was not that warned you? Deep inside your mind, haven't that tells you what something is very wrong with the prices?

Seriously, this is ridiculous. The second major trouble with bitcoin and… nothing happens! Are you believe in BTC holders that much?

By the way, proximity of crash was seen before 12/03. It was inevitable anyway.

No, it makes perfect sense. People are hungry for a value store.

It was actually quite reassuring.

And after each of these corrections, BTC holding has diversified into more hands, right?

[Transisto]

...
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

Yeah, Nothing has happened in the last two year, which drug-dealer "not use bitcoins" specifically ?

IGNORE, that's what it's for.

[klee]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial. But even a MtGox can't maintain it for a long. Don't know if bitcoin can touch $50 in next several days, but following crash is inevitable.
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

[josiahgarber]

Mark thread: Extremist Bears Only.

Don't get me wrong. I strongly believe in bitcoin success. In twenty or may be ten years it can reach $50 again. But with current level of volatility it cost nothing.

I think you could be very wrong.  But who knows...

[BlackBison]

Starts a poll with the only options indicating a crash of between 97% and 99.7% of current market price...

How about some other numbers like $10, or $30. Can't believe I am even replying to idiotic drivel like this..

[axus]

The exchange rate of bitcoin does not matter for "correct usage".  Why do you care about price?  You will be able to buy Bitcoins for fiat, and spend on goods/services denominated in that same fiat.  

If Bitcoin "takes over", then you will be paid in Bitcoins and not fiat, so exchange rate still doesn't matter.  It only matters at the time this theoretical "take over" occurs.

The only reason you could care about price is if you are risking fiat in bitcoin currency speculation.

[piramida]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial.

We as in "we, delusional people who have no bitcoins but want to buy at 2009 prices because we also have no balls to accept reality"? Then yes, we all do But otherwise no, your poll is pathetic. You are trying to hide from facts, which is a thing that leads to insanity quickly.

Let me explain in simple terms just how idiotic your poll's proposition is: You are estimating that demand for coins would drop to such low levels, that less than 10 million dollars would be able to buy out all of the coins in existence. There is about 5 times as much dollar money invested in servicing bitcoin economy now; draw a straight line here from fact A to conclusion B. Even a major crash and devaluation of bitcoin following world governments starting to kill any holders of bitcoin on sight, will not be able to go below $2.

So to add an option to your poll that makes a little sense - Fair price of bitcoin after a crash is $30. Accept it.

[mp420]

The next crash will be less pronounced than the last one, probably. I think, absent total network failure or widespread adoption of a more advanced cryptocurrency, $4 is the lowest BTC can go, and even that is unlikely. There are already early adopters who have cashed out at least some of their coins and hold significant amount of fiat, and who'll be buying back en masse if the price drops back to single digits.

[Endgame]

Poll options are amusing...i guess OP is either trolling or talking their book.

[Gyrsur]

without clean and modular codebase and without documentation of the protocol and all dependent stuff all above 1-2$/BTC is overpriced.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144641.msg1537077#msg1537077

[piramida]

without clean and modular codebase and without documentation of the protocol

Looks like you have a lot of work to do instead of wasting your time here! You know, in bitcoin world whoever complains about something - goes and does it! Or hires programmers to do it. Or stops complaining

[Gyrsur]

without clean and modular codebase and without documentation of the protocol

Looks like you have a lot of work to do instead of wasting your time here! You know, in bitcoin world whoever complains about something - goes and does it! Or hires programmers to do it. Or stops complaining

aha, you are working on something releated to Bitcoin?

[piramida]

aha, you are working on something releated to Bitcoin?

yes but that's not protocol documentation. but I don't complain, too. the code and testbase are pretty self-documenting

[Timo Y]

I think that bitcoin has reached a metastable state. It's a bit like an aerogel. Permanently frozen bubbles.