Fair price of bitcoin after a crash

[dmiceman]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial. But even a MtGox can't maintain it for a long. Don't know if bitcoin can touch $50 in next several days, but following crash is inevitable.
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

[randrace]

Mark thread: Extremist Bears Only.

[randrace]

We're talking about Litecoin, right?

[dmiceman]

Mark thread: Extremist Bears Only.

Don't get me wrong. I strongly believe in bitcoin success. In twenty or may be ten years it can reach $50 again. But with current level of volatility it cost nothing.

[poly]

Thread is pointless, the current price of bitcoin is as artificial as [insert commodity]'s price is.

We're not really going to see single digit btcusds again.

[dmiceman]

We're not really going to see single digit btcusds again.

We will. There are just no way to avoid that.

[anu]

This is ridiculous. Bitcoin price is afaik a true market price. Unlike the beloved currency of the gold bugs, i.e. gold. Which is imho the most rigged game that is.

And about crashes: Why does everyone think that gold is exempt from things like the dreaded Bitcoin crypto breaking? Gold consists of protons, neutrons and electron, just like dirt. Gold can be produced artificially in significant quantity, just not economically at current prices. It is but a small invention of economic production of gold to crush gold to nothing, once and for all.

[dmiceman]

more people adopts the coin which will drive the value up.

They can't. Nobody can use currency what jump back and forth for 30% in a week for anything useful. Or you mean just collecting BTC in wallets, not using them? But that kind of moneys come and they will gone easily. Look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania .

Anyway, why I'm argue about possibility of crash at all? It will happen without your or mine permission.

[solex]

Mark thread: Extremist Bears Only.

Don't get me wrong. I strongly believe in bitcoin success. In twenty or may be ten years it can reach $50 again. But with current level of volatility it cost nothing.

May I translate?  You were too late for the train and are hoping for a dip to $1 so that you can load up and make 50x your money in a decade (a retirement fund perhaps?).

You should read proudhon's posts because it seems he was on the train and got off and is hoping for the same scenario. One day you might meet up and can sit on a verandah watching the sunset repeating the words "If only...." over and over again....

[dmiceman]

It is but a small invention of economic production of gold to crush gold to nothing, once and for all.

Would be good for many real industries.

And dropping bitcoin price to sub-$ level would be good for growth of the  real bitcoin economic.

[dmiceman]

May I translate?

Looks like you have registered in 2013, right? Sorry, but then you simple don't know what it is all about.

[anu]

And dropping bitcoin price to sub-$ level would be good for growth of the  real bitcoin economic.

No it isn't. I explored the use of Bitcoin with a friend just this morning. The biggest problem for her is that the market is not liquid enough to absorb something like $1M without hickup.

[MonadTran]

It will happen without your or mine permission.

My coins are not going to sell themselves without my permission.

[dmiceman]

The biggest problem for her is that the market is not liquid enough to absorb something like $1M without hickup.

It should be step by step, little by little, not in a way it is going right now. Yes, it will take many years to get useful liquidity for bitcoin, but there is no other way.

[anu]

The biggest problem for her is that the market is not liquid enough to absorb something like $1M without hickup.

It should be step by step, little by little, not in a way it is going right now. Yes, it will take many years to get useful liquidity for bitcoin, but there is no other way.

It may be faster: While using Bitcoin for payment seems not practical for amounts > 100K right now, it can be used to secure payments by using SCRIPT. So the actual payment is done with Fiat, but ones saves the escrow.

[dmiceman]

it can be used to secure payments by using SCRIPT. So the actual payment is done with Fiat, but ones saves the escrow.

Way too complicated for practical use.

[solex]

No it isn't. I explored the use of Bitcoin with a friend just this morning. The biggest problem for her is that the market is not liquid enough to absorb something like $1M without hickup.

This week was an interesting test of that. $2M $3M was cashed out during the worst technical hitch for years, and the market just shrugged it off...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zig30-minztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

[notme]

Mark thread: Extremist Bears Only.

Don't get me wrong. I strongly believe in bitcoin success. In twenty or may be ten years it can reach $50 again. But with current level of volatility it cost nothing.

I will buy as many BTC for $3 as you can possibly sell me.  Send me a pm.  This should be a great deal since it that is twice the maximum they could possibly be worth.

[anu]

it can be used to secure payments by using SCRIPT. So the actual payment is done with Fiat, but ones saves the escrow.

Way too complicated for practical use.

Multi-Sign is a typical use case for SCRIPT. Seems trivial to me. But the idea to combine that with actual  fiat payments occurred to me just this morning. So maybe you are right. Have to explore....

[Luno]

1. Trying to predict if the price goes up or down from here is impossible!

2. Trying to estimate a worst case bottom level is equally impossible!

3. Not tormenting yourself with 1 and 2 all the time, is completely impossible.

Find the Zen of trading: exclude all emotions and desires about the price and keep some BTC and cash all the time so you can buy or sell some when the price has moved and never before it has moved based on beliefs and desires.

[Melbustus]

$173.70
( See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=151165.msg1604466#msg1604466 )

[jwzguy]

Keep dreaming op.

[BitPirate]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial.

Sell then.

I don't see anything but long-term positive growth in BTC:USD.

Sure, it's easy to feel a bit queasy watching the price rise like crazy earlier this month, but you know what? The more new money comes in, the less risk there is. Of course BTC is continuing to climb.

The way the recent chain fork was reflected in the market was very telling. A huge sell-off followed almost immediately by a strong rebound. People want Bitcoins.

If I wake up tomorrow and the price has dropped by 15%, will I sweat? Will I hell, it will be another great chance to buy more BTC. If the market can rebound immediately after a chain fork, I call that resilient.

Each of the spikes in recent volatility has subdivided Bitcoin ownership further -- as time goes on, the market is becoming more stable, not less. It's not looking like much of a ponzi scheme now, is it?

It's time to stop sweating and start earning. Quit daytrading and watching curves.

People will always sell, as they have to take profits some day. And there will be people right there waiting ready to snap up their BTC. After all, what else is there to invest in right now?

I'm more than happy to keep US$ in my exchange account, but clear out all BTC to my offline wallet.

Maybe there will be a permanent fall in value when a better investment opportunity comes along. Until then, don't hold your breath.

This is not even considering the huge potential of Bitcoin as a payment medium. I do freelance application development. People usually pay me with PayPal. I've started to offer BTC as an option and now suggest it first. Why the hell wouldn't I? A payment that will probably go up in value in the medium term, Vs. the risk of PayPal refusing to release my funds, taking a cut, and having to constantly keep my PayPal balance at 0 because I don't trust them. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way.

The fact that not many sites accept BTC payment right now is a plus, not a drawback. I call that untapped potential. Companies' CFOs aren't stupid. They will come.

[yokosan]

I am of the opinion that IF the price reaches $20 again the ensuing panic selling will drive the price sub $10 for a brief period of time (4-5 hours) before rebounding to around $20.

I believe ~$20 is the true price of Bitcoin right now.

These events will occur on or before May 1st.

[BitPirate]

I am of the opinion that IF the price reaches $20 again the ensuing panic selling will drive the price sub $10 for a brief period of time (4-5 hours) before rebounding to around $20.

I believe ~$20 is the true price of Bitcoin right now.

Yes, and IF I wake up tomorrow and find that my leg has been gnawed off by micro-bears, I'll probably die of blood loss.

The thing you have to remember is, that neither of these things is likely to happen. A breakage in the Bitcoin client didn't kill the market. So, what exactly is going to? Perhaps some sort of crackdown by a government?  Other than that....  

For everyone who sells off in a crisis, there is a buyer waiting.

...and two more yelling at their screens who can't buy because of lag.

[dmiceman]

A breakage in the Bitcoin client didn't kill the market.

Yes, but why? Was not that warned you? Deep inside your mind, haven't that tells you what something is very wrong with the prices?

Seriously, this is ridiculous. The second major trouble with bitcoin and… nothing happens! Are you believe in BTC holders that much?

By the way, proximity of crash was seen before 12/03. It was inevitable anyway.

[BitPirate]

A breakage in the Bitcoin client didn't kill the market.

Yes, but why? Was not that warned you? Deep inside your mind, haven't that tells you what something is very wrong with the prices?

Seriously, this is ridiculous. The second major trouble with bitcoin and… nothing happens! Are you believe in BTC holders that much?

By the way, proximity of crash was seen before 12/03. It was inevitable anyway.

No, it makes perfect sense. People are hungry for a value store.

It was actually quite reassuring.

And after each of these corrections, BTC holding has diversified into more hands, right?

[Transisto]

...
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

Yeah, Nothing has happened in the last two year, which drug-dealer "not use bitcoins" specifically ?

IGNORE, that's what it's for.

[klee]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial. But even a MtGox can't maintain it for a long. Don't know if bitcoin can touch $50 in next several days, but following crash is inevitable.
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

[josiahgarber]

Mark thread: Extremist Bears Only.

Don't get me wrong. I strongly believe in bitcoin success. In twenty or may be ten years it can reach $50 again. But with current level of volatility it cost nothing.

I think you could be very wrong.  But who knows...

[BlackBison]

Starts a poll with the only options indicating a crash of between 97% and 99.7% of current market price...

How about some other numbers like $10, or $30. Can't believe I am even replying to idiotic drivel like this..

[axus]

The exchange rate of bitcoin does not matter for "correct usage".  Why do you care about price?  You will be able to buy Bitcoins for fiat, and spend on goods/services denominated in that same fiat.  

If Bitcoin "takes over", then you will be paid in Bitcoins and not fiat, so exchange rate still doesn't matter.  It only matters at the time this theoretical "take over" occurs.

The only reason you could care about price is if you are risking fiat in bitcoin currency speculation.

[piramida]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial.

We as in "we, delusional people who have no bitcoins but want to buy at 2009 prices because we also have no balls to accept reality"? Then yes, we all do But otherwise no, your poll is pathetic. You are trying to hide from facts, which is a thing that leads to insanity quickly.

Let me explain in simple terms just how idiotic your poll's proposition is: You are estimating that demand for coins would drop to such low levels, that less than 10 million dollars would be able to buy out all of the coins in existence. There is about 5 times as much dollar money invested in servicing bitcoin economy now; draw a straight line here from fact A to conclusion B. Even a major crash and devaluation of bitcoin following world governments starting to kill any holders of bitcoin on sight, will not be able to go below $2.

So to add an option to your poll that makes a little sense - Fair price of bitcoin after a crash is $30. Accept it.

[mp420]

The next crash will be less pronounced than the last one, probably. I think, absent total network failure or widespread adoption of a more advanced cryptocurrency, $4 is the lowest BTC can go, and even that is unlikely. There are already early adopters who have cashed out at least some of their coins and hold significant amount of fiat, and who'll be buying back en masse if the price drops back to single digits.

[Endgame]

Poll options are amusing...i guess OP is either trolling or talking their book.

[Gyrsur]

without clean and modular codebase and without documentation of the protocol and all dependent stuff all above 1-2$/BTC is overpriced.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144641.msg1537077#msg1537077

[piramida]

without clean and modular codebase and without documentation of the protocol

Looks like you have a lot of work to do instead of wasting your time here! You know, in bitcoin world whoever complains about something - goes and does it! Or hires programmers to do it. Or stops complaining

[Gyrsur]

without clean and modular codebase and without documentation of the protocol

Looks like you have a lot of work to do instead of wasting your time here! You know, in bitcoin world whoever complains about something - goes and does it! Or hires programmers to do it. Or stops complaining

aha, you are working on something releated to Bitcoin?

[piramida]

aha, you are working on something releated to Bitcoin?

yes but that's not protocol documentation. but I don't complain, too. the code and testbase are pretty self-documenting

[Timo Y]

I think that bitcoin has reached a metastable state. It's a bit like an aerogel. Permanently frozen bubbles.

[Meizirkki]

Permanently frozen bubbles.

[jwzguy]

Fair price, after a crash, is currently ~$47.

[DarkHyudrA]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial. But even a MtGox can't maintain it for a long. Don't know if bitcoin can touch $50 in next several days, but following crash is inevitable.
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

Bearshit

[Xendrios]

It'll never go that low, why not? I'll be buying way before the price goes that low. I suggest you start living with the fact you missed the train back then and it won't come back. We're not in a bubble atm. Hence why price bounces straight up when it 'crashed' in previous weeks.

[adamstgBit]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial. But even a MtGox can't maintain it for a long. Don't know if bitcoin can touch $50 in next several days, but following crash is inevitable.
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

Bearshit

after more crashes then i can count, bitcoin is worth 47$, that is the fair value... deal with it.  

[jwzguy]

after more crashes then i can count, bitcoin is worth 47$, that is the fair value... deal with it.  

High five adam. I knew we'd be back on the same page soon!

[BitPirate]

Yes!!!  All these bear threads mystify me.

OH NOES BTC HAS BEEN STABLE AT 47 FOR ALMOST 3 WEEKS

Just buy back in already and remember it as a lesson.

[xavier]

Just wait for a tiny bit of bad news to come in about bitcoin

- Exchange hack

- Government outlaws bitcoin

- Something related to regulation

- Flaw in the protocol

- Exchange closes down ala bitcoinica

Then we're gonna see something interesting

[solex]

Just wait for a tiny bit of bad news to come in about bitcoin

- Exchange hack

- Government outlaws bitcoin

- Something related to regulation

- Flaw in the protocol

- Exchange closes down ala bitcoinica

Then we're gonna see something interesting

Like this week? Worst news in 3 years, flaw in protocol (default max db locks was insufficent).

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

= price down $1 after 3 days
Is that interesting enough?

[str4wm4n]

We're talking about Litecoin, right?

[BitPirate]

Just wait for a tiny bit of bad news to come in about bitcoin

- Exchange hack

- Government outlaws bitcoin

- Something related to regulation

- Flaw in the protocol

- Exchange closes down ala bitcoinica

Then we're gonna see something interesting

You're ridiculous. Why all the worry?

When you get this paranoid, it's time to put the bong pipe down and get some fresh air.


In all seriousness, if you have money in the game, then look at the long term and stop stressing out about all the fluctuations.

If you don't have money in the game, then who cares.

[Beauxe]

There is some simple math that drives the whole valuation issue.  I evolves around assumptions of adoption.  Given the current real world obsession with mobile payments, more efficient payment mechanisms, and fiat currency devaluation it is a given that cryptocurrencies are inevitable.  It goes without saying that financial services infrastructure will be built to lever BTC's competitive characteristics with the current payments  system.  Add to that the the 3 major economies of the world are in a runaway financial disaster (USA, EU, and Japan) there is really no other option than devaluation.  Hence, BTC as a usable currency or a valuable investment.

So assuming some type of adoption rate (I believe 10% is a reasonable number) then you can easily factor a valuation of BTC to the USD (assuming world currencies generally remain at their current relative value).  Currently there are approximately $22 Trillion USD in various parts of the money supply.  At a 10% adoption rate of the USD alone (The global fiat currency money supply is north of $100 Trillion), BTC would be worth approximately $100,000.

[DoomDumas]

LOL

We will never ever touch under 20$ !

[adamstgBit]

the crashes are over, BUY BUY BUY 

[odolvlobo]

more people adopts the coin which will drive the value up.

They can't. Nobody can use currency what jump back and forth for 30% in a week for anything useful.

That's not true. In the case where bitcoin is used strictly as a payment system, then volatility has very little effect because the bitcoins at risk for only a very short time.

Here is a simple scenario. The customer sees the price of an item in BTC and buys that amount of BTC with local currency. Waits 1 hour for confirmations and then buys the item from the merchant with the BTC. Then the merchant waits an hour for confirmations and then sells the BTC for local currency.

The whole transaction takes place over two hours, so it doesn't matter what the price of BTC is or how much it changes in a week in this scenario.

[dmiceman]

By the way, I can predict time of crash with about 60% confidence. It will happen between March 19 and 22. It should not be crash to zero yet, but still a good devastating one.

[Bit_Happy]

Q) Speculation is fun, but what is getting forgotten here?
A) First, spend some time developing the economy, and then speculate on where the price is going.

[dmiceman]

That's not true. In the case where bitcoin is used strictly as a payment system, then volatility has very little effect because the bitcoins at risk for only a very short time.

And you really want to be one of that merchants or buyers?

By the way, I hear what reddit accept bitcoins. But right now I was unable to see the way to use them. Even if this is (still) possible, that is not easy to do.

[glub0x]

ahah

[BitPirate]

That's not true. In the case where bitcoin is used strictly as a payment system, then volatility has very little effect because the bitcoins at risk for only a very short time.

And you really want to be one of that merchants or buyers?

I do.

When quoting, I suggest Bitcoin as a payment first, PayPal second.

I think the risk of Bitcoin not being a long-term value store is less than the risk of PayPal randomly blocking access to my funds.

Smart CFOs will want it too. It's performed well, and variable costs for accepting payments are less than for credit cards. On average, based on past performance, holding and converting at a later date will be more than enough to completely offset fees. It's a no-brainer.

[dmiceman]

I do.

Cool, but what is a volume of your BTC operations? Sorry for asking.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

I'm not quite so pessimistic as the OP. I do think the real value of Bitcoin is somewhere between $5 and $9.99.

[jwzguy]

I'm not quite so pessimistic as the OP. I do think the real value of Bitcoin is somewhere between $5 and $9.99.

Why not 1$? Why not 10 cents?

[ElectricMucus]

I'm not quite so pessimistic as the OP. I do think the real value of Bitcoin is somewhere between $5 and $9.99.

Why not 1$? Why not 10 cents?

Because MaxKaiser will have difficulties calling himself a Bitcoin Millionaire then.

[adamstgBit]

I'm not quite so pessimistic as the OP. I do think the real value of Bitcoin is somewhere between $5 and $9.99.

Why not 1$? Why not 10 cents?

Because MaxKaiser will have difficulties calling himself a Bitcoin Millionaire then.

"the real value of Bitcoin is somewhere between"
lol
the real value is clear as day. just look at a charts....... its no joke... you go to mtgox or wtv other exchange you sell 1000 fucking bitcoin, do it! do it! do it!

 

[dmiceman]

Good time to revive this thread. Because of gox lag price went up too high several times. Especially at 140-150 mark, when everything showing a imminent reversal, gox lag help to stabilize market and price went up again. But no more. So, what do you think about fair price for BTC as of now?