I'm sure we all daydream from time to time. I got to musing about what the price of BTC would be, if the market valued it on a par with gold.
According to one non-authoritative website, there may be approximately 10 Billion Troy Oz of gold mined in the history of the world. (
http://money.howstuffworks.com/question213.htm). The precise number is inconsequential for the purposes of this back of the envelope analysis. Let's call it 10.5 B Oz to make the math simple.
In the long term, there will be 21 M BTC mined. Accordingly, and ignoring the growth in mined gold, the trend is towards 500 Troy Oz of gold for every BTC (10.5B / 21M).
Gold is currently trading at somewhere near $1600 Oz.
This would suggest that, if the market valued gold and BTC about the same, then BTC should be worth approximately (500 OzAU / BTC)($1600/OzAU) = $800,000 / BTC.
Will the market come to value BTC on par with AU? Who knows? If so, though, I could have a comfortable retirement.
Yes, I can poke holes in this too. But it is one data point.