I didn't forget about greed as a factor, I just recognize that BFL recognized the greed factor when they planned their scammy bait and switch. The order line queue system has ensured that the vast majority of people that have been swindled will not cancel due to the perceived value of their order position. That's what makes them captives, so that they can experience the 3rd degree Stockholm syndrome previously alluded to.
Perceived value of order position really only applies to those who ordered very early, though. It doesn't explain the willingness of people to order now, knowing that they'll be waiting at least 2-3 months to receive their units and it doesn't explain those who can't wait to use their discount vouchers (having already waited 9 months for their first units, they're willing to order more and wait months to receive those - knowing that the hash rate will have risen considerably by the time those units arrive).
The only way BFL ASICs are going to be delivered in a reasonable amount of time is if production greatly outstrips the rate of new orders - and that's not likely to happen any time soon given that people have only 60 days to use their discount vouchers once BFL ships. No-one at BFL is even giving an estimate on when they expect to have caught up on back-logged orders any more, but it's not likely to be in the first half of this year. As things stand now, it's going to be a very long time before BFL has ASICs available for immediate delivery and anyone who can step in to fill that gap has the chance to take market share away from them.
That's the beauty here! The BFL
captives investors watch as ASICMiner brings 6+Th online and Avalon guys start getting their rigs, so they get antsy and complain to BFL, who mysteriously has a new policy of transparency. Never mind that none of their new
fairytales timetables are met either, it keeps the
captives investors from getting too restless, their products are JUST around the corner afterall...just as they have been since June of 2012. When that begins to wear thin the magical unicorn blood chips go to the 24hr bumping facility for a couple weeks, the packagers, testers, blah blah. There's always some new juicy tidbit or perty picture to keep people thinking their money making machines are JUST around the corner.
As to new customers where are they supposed to go? bASIC is gone and Avalon is only doing batches. Meanwhile Josh and BFL customer service are inexplicably on different pages about just how long an order placed now will take to deliver. The most public version being the most favorable to BFL's bottom line of course.
It doesn't make any sense at all to me to hold onto an order through all that scammy shell game crap, but obviously people are doing it, and many of those people are otherwise perfectly reasonable folks. Ask them what they're thinking. I know a lot of the newbies that are mulling it over have no idea about BFL's history and haven't a clue who they're getting into bed with. Certainly if there was another vendor with a bottomless pre-order window and a slick deceptive marketing strategy then people would be torn between the two, but Tom already closed shop and got HIS scammer tag. BFL is still kickin and now people have only one scammy vendor to order from.
