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 Author Topic: Asicminer stocks undervalued?  (Read 3337 times)
Brushan
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 March 16, 2013, 02:39:24 PMLast edit: March 17, 2013, 11:37:00 AM by Brushan

If you use the traditional math to see how much a stock is worth, you take yearly dividends divided by expected dividend yield. Asicminer stocks are worth around 1BTC and have dividends of around 0,2BTC a WEEK. Lets say it keeps going like that for a year. 52 weeks x 0,2BTC is 10.4 BTC. Now, an acceptable dividend yield is around 5%. Because bitcoin business means bigger risks let say we want four times that. So lets say we want a dividend yield of 20%.
Now the math:
10.4 divided by 0.20 is 52BTC!
Do you think that is a reasonable price for an asicminer stock or am i missing something?
Feel free to discuss.

EDIT: Missed a zero. The dividends have been about 0,02BTC a week. These numbers give the value of 5,2BTC.
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msm595
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 March 16, 2013, 02:53:46 PM

Dividend is actually around .02 BTC per share, and after the initial .1 BTC in dividends is paid, then we suspect dividends to drop to be around .01 BTC a week.

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 March 16, 2013, 02:57:47 PM

I might sell a few of my ASICMINERS shares at a discount for 50 BTC each.
Brushan
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 March 16, 2013, 03:01:34 PM

Yes. you're right. My bad, i missed a zero. But still, using your numbers sets the stock value to 2,6 BTC which is almost 3 times todays value. That is, if you expect a 20% dividend yield which is not bad at all.
VJain
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 March 16, 2013, 08:34:41 PM

Also have to keep in mind Network Hashrate. Once the bulk of BFL/Avalon Ships (let's say they do ship, keep the speculation/etc to the other 99999 threads) the % of total network will go down. If (as I'm hoping), they never ship to the extent they originally planned to (or far later), the better for ASICMINER shareholders - especially if we get the 50TH batch online before them.

I think Friedcat posted some speculation-esque figures a few pages back. Can't be bothered to find it.

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PsychoticBoy
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 March 16, 2013, 08:38:48 PM

You are just hoping Asicminer shares will skyrocket so you can dump them!

0.01 Btc dividend a week sounds great but difficulty will increase dramaticly.
Jutarul
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 March 16, 2013, 08:42:58 PM

I might sell a few of my ASICMINERS shares at a discount for 50 BTC each.
this

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
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MPOE-PR
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 March 17, 2013, 08:10:48 AM

If you use the traditional math to see how much a stock is worth, you take yearly dividends divided by expected dividend yield. Asicminer stocks are worth around 1BTC and have dividends of around 0,2BTC a WEEK. Lets say it keeps going like that for a year. 52 weeks x 0,2BTC is 10.4 BTC. Now, an acceptable dividend yield is around 5%. Because bitcoin business means bigger risks let say we want four times that. So lets say we want a dividend yield of 20%.
Now the math:
10.4 divided by 0.20 is 52BTC!
Do you think that is a reasonable price for an asicminer stock or am i missing something?
Feel free to discuss.

Basic arithmetic wasn't ever a strong point of this forum.

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peterepeat
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 March 17, 2013, 10:41:34 AMLast edit: March 17, 2013, 10:59:55 AM by peterepeat

By early April the next batch of finished devices will be available for deploying. At that time we will have a full team for installing and maintainance. If we get the 60TH/s online (conservative) in late April, and the hashrate of the full network from that time is 200TH/s which linearly increases to 1,000TH/s in late December. (200+1000)/2 = 600. So we will have 10% in average of the full network from late April to late December. That translates to about 88,000 Bitcoins total mined. That is 0.22BTC/share of gross income in eight months.

So it sounds like friedcat is saying, there should be less than 0.22 BTC (less once expenses are taken out) per share dividend over the next 8 months. Im not sure if that makes 0.85BTC per share undervalued or not?
Brushan
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 March 17, 2013, 11:16:30 AM

Oh ok, i did not know about that statement. But lets try the math:
0,22 in eight month is about 0,33 in a year. If i want a dividend yield of 20%, i'll take 0.33 divided by 0,20 which sets its value to 1,65 BTC. Still undervalued if you ask me. I'm not trying to raise the value shares so i can dump them. Just trying to discuss because i'm thinking about buying in.
On more question:
Do you know ASICMiners long-term business plan? How much will they invest in new ASICs and research as difficulty increases?
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 March 17, 2013, 11:25:16 AM

I believe that ASICMINER will earn far more than 0.22 in 8 months. (including the half paid to bitfountain).
Brushan
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 March 17, 2013, 11:34:51 AM

I believe that ASICMINER will earn far more than 0.22 in 8 months. (including the half paid to bitfountain).
Care to elaborate?
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 March 17, 2013, 12:37:04 PM

I believe that ASICMINER will earn far more than 0.22 in 8 months. (including the half paid to bitfountain).
Care to elaborate?
Kinda. I'm not going to disclose anything meaningful (there), but from what I know (which has the chance of being inaccurate) ASICMIMER is going to occupy a significant amount of the network hashrate. Now if Bitfountain will pay in dividends AFTER they move to selling miners, most likely not.

I know that this is pretty much fluff, but call me on it in a few months, if I was right or wrong. Btw, MPOE-PR, how's S.BBET selling?
Brushan
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 March 17, 2013, 01:51:47 PM

I believe that ASICMINER will earn far more than 0.22 in 8 months. (including the half paid to bitfountain).
Care to elaborate?
Kinda. I'm not going to disclose anything meaningful (there), but from what I know (which has the chance of being inaccurate) ASICMIMER is going to occupy a significant amount of the network hashrate. Now if Bitfountain will pay in dividends AFTER they move to selling miners, most likely not.

I know that this is pretty much fluff, but call me on it in a few months, if I was right or wrong. Btw, MPOE-PR, how's S.BBET selling?
Isn't paying dividends for miner sales part of the contract?
PsychoticBoy
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 March 17, 2013, 05:34:40 PM

I value these shares at 1.5 to 2.25 BTC but they could be worth much more depending on if the competition ever makes anything.

I sold a few off but will be keeping most of what I have left for the long term.

Hahaha wtf more than 1 BTC! LMFAO

This thread is getting more and more, wait for it....... HILARIOUS
VeeMiner
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 March 17, 2013, 06:35:42 PM

I value these shares at 1.5 to 2.25 BTC but they could be worth much more depending on if the competition ever makes anything.

I sold a few off but will be keeping most of what I have left for the long term.

Hahaha wtf more than 1 BTC! LMFAO

This thread is getting more and more, wait for it....... HILARIOUS

The income for the company, assuming they control a modest 20% of the network for 2 years would be 1.314 per share.

This company, who is already making ASICs and has the ability to make more faster than anyone else might have to limit their power to 45% of the network at times.

Honestly if BFL is 4 to 6 weeks away forever 2.25 BTC would be significantly undervalued.

Given the current risk I am of oppinion that the shares should be valued 1-1.5 BTC each. It will show once there is a trading platform on which the free market can show it's real value
Sukrim
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 March 17, 2013, 07:04:26 PM

I actually earn more than 0.02 BTC per week per 0.8 BTC (or how high are ASICMINER trading now? If they already trade higher, there are even worse returns...) investment in a completely different sector... and rising difficulty/dividend halving doesn't affect me there.

Anyways, I still think for the risk involved ASICMINER is rather overvalued than anything else - all the time if mining is profitable people gather round to praise mining contracts, then if the price comes down again and the going gets rough suddenly there's no liquidity, they are called "turds" and whatnot... If you really think ASICMINER will pay even close to 5.2 BTC in dividends over the next 10 years in total, you're going to have a bad time in my opinion.

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Sukrim
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 March 18, 2013, 01:00:52 PM

Yes, even trusting that ASICMINER shares will be tradeable or worth anything in 3 years from now is already quite a stretch...

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lophie
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 March 20, 2013, 04:56:36 AM

Yes, even trusting that ASICMINER shares will be tradeable or worth anything in 3 years from now is already quite a stretch...

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