Diff thread July 4 July 18th? picks are closed! prize = $50 usd + ½ ing

[philipma1957]

new thread is here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1557126.new#new



Okay first off Generalt  was the winner of last contest 50 usd in btc.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521664.msg15471593#msg15471593


This will be the ½ ing  Jump  it will come at block 420000

Should be fun.  We have been giving away BTC for more then 18 months at no cost to any player free entry.
With the ½ ing coming in  under 670 blocks  if really weird nutty shit happens I will come up with an adjustment to the game.

So fingers crossed good luck and have some fun.



Picks start at block 1116 and end at block 716 of each adjustment period.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,398,925,331
Estimated Next Difficulty:   222,258,479,409 (+4.15%)
Adjust time:   After 2013 Blocks, About 13.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,531,670,817 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   20:5 (46.0 seconds ago)




Adjust time:   After 2013 Blocks, About 13.6 days PICKS BEGIN AT 1116  we are at 2013

$50 a jump  will Stay in place barring a crash in btc value to under 500 a coin.  If coins drop under 500  I will award .1 btc a jump.
I need to do this do to coin price  volatility.

 When game began about 20 months ago coins were about 200 usd  0.10 btc was about 20 usd. we paid  in .10 btc numbers.  Our first donator to the game  spent over 2.8 coins.  I have been the sole payer for the last 4 months and have paid .9 coins  so 3.7 coins have been awarded for free, nada, nothing  no cost.  I am still able to do this due to my signature fee.  Which I put into payments here.

First rule is I decide all rules since it is a free chance to get some coin.
Second rule is you need to be  a forum member since April 1st of 2016
Third rule is you need to have made 30 posts.  I will read them and decide if you appear to be real.
Fourth rule is if I think you are double dipping your picks won't be allowed
Fifth rule is we open picks at 1116 and end picks at 716   just about 2.5 days to pick.
Sixth rule is  this is for fun so I tend to allow off topic and don't delete very much.
Seventh rule is your pick should look like  -1.2 = philipma1957 or   +1.2 = philipma1957
Eight rule is  if you pick a used pick I will assign a pick to you and you are stuck with the one I assign.
Ninth rule no pick changes
Tenth rule no pre picks via pm's
Eleven rule no late picks.

Anything I missed above feel free to mention.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,398,925,331
Estimated Next Difficulty:   222,258,479,409 (+4.15%)
Adjust time:   After 2013 Blocks, About 13.6 days PICKS END AT 716  we are at 2013
Hashrate(?):   1,531,670,817 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   20:5 (2.0 minutes ago)

[judypug1956]

spacer for phil

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoincharts.com/


early but we are -

[RichBC]

Well here we are one Day into the most interesting / hard to call Difficulty Periods we are going to see for some time. Things seem to be off to a normal start with Yesterday being +0.69% with 145 Blocks. Today we have a slow start, with Period to date Run Rate at -3.7%, but always takes a few day for things to settle, just about in time for the halving.....

Will there be a mass switch off or will things just carry on as if nothing has happened?



Rich

[pogress]

Will there be a mass switch off or will things just carry on as if nothing has happened?

Very interesting difficulty period, indeed. We going to see if massive switch off is happening before this contest picking period ends, but it would be much harder to predict the final difficulty change if such massive switch off really happens.

[adaseb]

Did you guys know that during the last halving, it was solved by a single GPU rig by an Radeon 5870 GPU. Later that GPU was bought by Chaang Noi who during the Bitcoin bubble of 2013 bought a Lamborghini with his Bitcoins.

Crazy Times.

[alh]

Will there be a mass switch off or will things just carry on as if nothing has happened?

Rich

I think the dramatic BTC price rise over the last 3 months has largely blunted the impact of the halving. We may not see a massive drop-off of of hash-rate that some folks are expecting.

I expect this will be more of a "gradual switch off" over time, unless there is a crash on BTC price.

[Mikestang]

Can't believe we're here already, the halving.  Seems like we've been talking about it for so long.  Oh, and last round was the closest I'd ever been, I was one guess spot away!

[alh]

About 350 blocks until halving. While not a crash in BTC price, we have seen a decline to about $635/coin.

That, and the halving, will constrain hash rate growth I expect.

S9 prices seem to be holding as Bitmain introduces Batch6 & Batch7. No immediate relief for S9 purchasers.

August will be mighty interesting, in my opinion. BTC price up, or down? Difficulty up or down?

[adaseb]

Most people who I contacted about buying S7 gear from said they are waiting and seeing if the difficulty will drop, if it doesn't they will sell their S7 to me for cheap. If it drops or price goes up another 30%, they will keep mining with it.

Because right now with most hosting datacentres most people will end up breaking even with their power costs and no point in running them.

[notlist3d]

Most people who I contacted about buying S7 gear from said they are waiting and seeing if the difficulty will drop, if it doesn't they will sell their S7 to me for cheap. If it drops or price goes up another 30%, they will keep mining with it.

Because right now with most hosting datacentres most people will end up breaking even with their power costs and no point in running them.

Not the greatest day to watch from high 670's to low 620's - http://www.coindesk.com/price/ .  So we lost a little more then 50 dollars per BTC value.  I'm wondering with halving so close some are selling hedging bet's.   They might have waited to right before having and sold some.

I personally am more interested in long term holding.  So I really want to see price after halving, I think we will see some sell but hope we go up again overtime.   

[philipma1957]

Most people who I contacted about buying S7 gear from said they are waiting and seeing if the difficulty will drop, if it doesn't they will sell their S7 to me for cheap. If it drops or price goes up another 30%, they will keep mining with it.

Because right now with most hosting datacentres most people will end up breaking even with their power costs and no point in running them.

Not the greatest day to watch from high 670's to low 620's - http://www.coindesk.com/price/ .  So we lost a little more then 50 dollars per BTC value.  I'm wondering with halving so close some are selling hedging bet's.   They might have waited to right before having and sold some.

I personally am more interested in long term holding.  So I really want to see price after halving, I think we will see some sell but hope we go up again overtime.   

I am buying as it drops and hope to see it dip under 600

[leowonderful]

Most people who I contacted about buying S7 gear from said they are waiting and seeing if the difficulty will drop, if it doesn't they will sell their S7 to me for cheap. If it drops or price goes up another 30%, they will keep mining with it.

Because right now with most hosting datacentres most people will end up breaking even with their power costs and no point in running them.

Not the greatest day to watch from high 670's to low 620's - http://www.coindesk.com/price/ .  So we lost a little more then 50 dollars per BTC value.  I'm wondering with halving so close some are selling hedging bet's.   They might have waited to right before having and sold some.

I personally am more interested in long term holding.  So I really want to see price after halving, I think we will see some sell but hope we go up again overtime.  

I am buying as it drops and hope to see it dip under 600

Too late, going back to the 640s expecting quick recovery, possibly going to be overbought as it rises or will just plateau at 650. Everybody saying the halving is going to raise the price SIGNIFICANTLY is wrong. It'll rise over time as demand continues at the pace it's going at, and supply becomes a bit weaker, but I don't really see any signs of BTC reaching 800 any time soon.  With price going this low into the halving, I see a larger difficulty drop than I initially expected. Probably going to be - going into the week or 2 after the halving as people see the negative profit in their faces, and miners shut down.

[philipma1957]

Most people who I contacted about buying S7 gear from said they are waiting and seeing if the difficulty will drop, if it doesn't they will sell their S7 to me for cheap. If it drops or price goes up another 30%, they will keep mining with it.

Because right now with most hosting datacentres most people will end up breaking even with their power costs and no point in running them.

Not the greatest day to watch from high 670's to low 620's - http://www.coindesk.com/price/ .  So we lost a little more then 50 dollars per BTC value.  I'm wondering with halving so close some are selling hedging bet's.   They might have waited to right before having and sold some.

I personally am more interested in long term holding.  So I really want to see price after halving, I think we will see some sell but hope we go up again overtime.  

I am buying as it drops and hope to see it dip under 600

Too late, going back to the 640s expecting quick recovery, possibly going to be overbought as it rises or will just plateau at 650. Everybody saying the halving is going to raise the price SIGNIFICANTLY is wrong. It'll rise over time as demand continues at the pace it's going at, and supply becomes a bit weaker, but I don't really see any signs of BTC reaching 800 any time soon.  With price going this low into the halving, I see a larger difficulty drop than I initially expected. Probably going to be - going into the week or 2 after the halving as people see the negative profit in their faces, and miners shut down.

I only got .3 at 630 or so.  Oh well.

[Erumara]

I only got .3 at 630 or so.  Oh well.

Still sounds like a snagged a good deal at face value, makes me wish I had some funds I would have been buying too.

[RichBC]

Yes I think the Halving rise and peak has been and gone. Question now is how low are we going and will we build again? I think we could easily see 550 or even 450 again?

Hash wise we are are a pretty stable Period to date Run Rate of -3% at the moment.


Rich

[alh]

Putting aside the speculative aspects of BTC via buying and selling for a moment, we are just about 1 day until the halving (i.e. 142 blocks).

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,398,925,331
Estimated Next Difficulty:    216,957,196,592 (+1.67%)
Adjust time:    After 1485 Blocks, About 10.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,530,803,743 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    12:10 (45.0 seconds ago)

Still in the range of $640/coin.

[d57heinz]

nice page i just come across from reddit.  Not sure it will stick around post halving but it does group all the links we frequent. http://codacoin.info/halving.php

congrats to all that have made it this long. especially to those that can continue post halving. im really going to have to rethink this.. Been a great learning exp anyway:)

http://www.thehalvening.com/


Best Regards
d57heinz

[Mikestang]

congrats to all that have made it this long. especially to those that can continue post halving. im really going to have to rethink this.. Been a great learning exp anyway:)

Yup for sure, congrats to those who keep it going.  My gear has been shut off for a couple months due to summer heat, hopefully when it cools down later this year it will still be worth my time, effort, and $ to have a miner or two in the mix.  Til then I'll just keep having fun with the R1 and gekko stick german fun runs.

[notlist3d]

congrats to all that have made it this long. especially to those that can continue post halving. im really going to have to rethink this.. Been a great learning exp anyway:)

Yup for sure, congrats to those who keep it going.  My gear has been shut off for a couple months due to summer heat, hopefully when it cools down later this year it will still be worth my time, effort, and $ to have a miner or two in the mix.  Til then I'll just keep having fun with the R1 and gekko stick german fun runs.

For me summer means a lot more of CFM's from fan's.  During winter I am able to get away with much less, which is nice lower overhead. It has been pretty mild really for the most part where I am in the Midwest.  I do expect having to change what miners are profitable for me, after it I'm guessing all need to be S9 to make sense but will run numbers after.

I also dabble in Ether now for fun.   Not sure if it will pay off as big as I would like but the chance to play with GPU's again was to hard to pass up.  I expect them to be running for quiet a while.

But price is really not doing bad 655 on coinbase.  Will be an interesting week though to watch price.