Diff thread July 4 July 18th? picks are closed! prize = $50 usd + ½ ing

[philipma1957]

I think it will take weeks for the effects of the halving to actually observed or felt.  I don't have a particular reason to think that folks would just "switch off" hardware when block 420,000 rolled around. Those folks would most likely have been selling their hardware, as I should have done. Anybody that recently bought hardware was planning on running it and is unlikely to change their mind quickly.

As always I think that difficulty changes will follow in the direction of BTC price. For most folks, BTC price is THE key driver in their decisions. Obviously electricity price is important, but that's a pretty stable and predictable value, whereas BTC price is not.

Interesting to follow the next couple of months.

Exactly this.

Here is an example of a s-7 user  that has 10.5 cent power.  He or she has just this machine.  I would be willing to say they will run it for a month or so since it is not losing much money for the month.

[1714610454]

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[1714610454]

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[1714610454]

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[TheYankeesWin!]

I thought we would have a big drop  right away.


http://bitcoincharts.com/

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,398,925,331

Estimated Next Difficulty:   218,182,291,003 (+2.24%)
Adjust time:   After 1189 Blocks, About 8.1 days >>>>>>>>>>>> We start at 1116


Hashrate(?):   1,577,761,009 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
Updated:   12:25 (4.3 minutes ago)

@TheYankeesWin 

 I think the rates may drop  over time but not just yet.
Maybe :
July 18 to Aug    1   will be -5%
Aug 1 to Aug    15   will be -4%
Aug 15 to Aug  29   will be -4%
Aug 29 to Sept 12   will be -4%

Then we will go up in diff rates.




I also think in the fall rate will begin to rise.

[VRobb]

I do believe it's game on!

Bitcoin Difficulty:213,398,925,331
Estimated Next Difficulty:216,612,014,007 (+1.51%)
Adjust time:After 1116 Blocks, About 7.7 days
Hashrate(?):1,543,174,256 GH/sBlock Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.6 minutes

Let's keep it low

0 = VRobb

Thanks philip for keeping this going! Such fun!

[RichBC]

So Yesterday was +8.33% with 156 Blocks, however Today is off to a slowish start which has pulled the Period to Date Run Rate just into negative territory, so we may be seeing the first signs of a switch off?


Rich

[philipma1957]

Picks are open!
-1.2= philipma1957 If I win I will roll it over
0 = VRobb

[testerman]

+ 1.2 = testerman

Gl

[philipma1957]

Picks are open!


-1.2= philipma1957   If I win I will roll it over

   0 = VRobb


+ 1.2 = testerman


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,398,925,331

Estimated Next Difficulty:   216,257,773,319 (+1.34%)
Adjust time:   After 1071 Blocks, About 7.4 days

Hashrate(?):   1,573,552,758 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
Updated:   8:30 (4.7 minutes ago)

[blindminer]

+2.2= blindminer

[gt_addict]

-2.7= gt_addict

[philipma1957]

Picks are open!

-2.7= gt_addict

-1.2= philipma1957   If I win I will roll it over

   0 = VRobb


+ 1.2 = testerman

+2.2= blindminer

[Erumara]

+0.4 = Erumara

[edonkey]

+0.5 = edonkey

Our oldest cat says the difficulty is going up, but not by much. Seems counterintuitive given the halving, but that's what he said.

[fr4nkthetank]

+0.8 = fr4nkthetank

[bomberb17]

-2 = bomberb17
I think that halving effects will be observed soon..

[vortexz]

+1.0 = vortexz

I belive difficulty will surprise us all, and instead of droppin it will still go up with each new adjustment

[Cuidler]

+0.1 = Cuidler

Surprisingly no drop in hashrate, the new plugged S9s could exactly match the unplugged very old gear which become unprofitable after halving, at least for this difficulty period and current price. Seems no afterhalving drama at all, hashrate seems oscilating around 0 so far.

[philipma1957]

Picks are open!

-2.7= gt_addict
-2 = bomberb17
-1.2= philipma1957   If I win I will roll it over

   0 = VRobb
+0.1 = Cuidler
+0.4 = Erumara
+0.5 = edonkey
+0.8 = fr4nkthetank
+1.0 = vortexz
+ 1.2 = testerman

+2.2= blindminer

[slastar]

+1.5 = slastar

[Mikestang]

So if there was any powering down of old gear it has been more than compensated for by new gear being switched on.

Well if you think about it, every 10 S5s that shut off equal 1 S9 turning on, or every 20 S3s, or every 40 S1s... I also agree it will take a little time to see any repercussions from switching off old gear, if that blip is even noticeable today with the rate that gear speed and efficiency are increasing.