ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN (BTC/USD) PRICE

[mnandii]

Hi guys,

I am new here and will be grateful for your welcoming me aboard. I am an Elliottician and I apply Elliott waves to currencies (forex), gold and bitcoin (BTC/USD). My current analysis suggests that bitcoin price is falling in a third wave and will likely fall to below $100 soon. NB: I know that's a shock to most  . However I will provide more information as time progresses. My chart below is self explanatory (for those who understand the basic Elliott Wave theme) but I will endeavor to bring everyone on board and not lose people through unnecessary jargon.

As shown, I expect bitcoin to bottom at about $85, being the area of the last fourth wave (i.e the converging trend lines) of the rise from about $0 to >$1000 a piece.

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/59ae0130-a440-4e26-87a0-56df98f931d6/2016-07-08_1007.png

[pedrog]

How accurate your predictions have been over the years?

$85 doesn't seem possible unless something really bad happens.

[mnandii]

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/e5f488a1-a639-4c4f-9610-60a79296e6aa/2016-08-04_1013.png

Bitcoin. Next leg down to below $400 imminent.

[SnokkomBTC]

Bitcoin. Next leg down to below $400 imminent.

good luck with your short

take a look at the beginning of the late 2013 bubble

[kobilica]

Activity: 1

 

[RyNinDaCleM]

Should have made this self moderated to keep the trolls out...
Most here will scoff at the idea but yours and my counts, although a little different through 2014, have very similar targets. Another thing is that there is trade data from 2010 until your chart starts in 2012. Another full impulse to $32 happened in 2011 so the $2 low in '12 would have to be a larger degree II.

[mnandii]

Should have made this self moderated to keep the trolls out...
Most here will scoff at the idea but yours and my counts, although a little different through 2014, have very similar targets. Another thing is that there is trade data from 2010 until your chart starts in 2012. Another full impulse to $32 happened in 2011 so the $2 low in '12 would have to be a larger degree II.

Thanks for the advice. The trolls are a real bother!

[Afrikoin]

Should have made this self moderated to keep the trolls out...
Most here will scoff at the idea but yours and my counts, although a little different through 2014, have very similar targets. Another thing is that there is trade data from 2010 until your chart starts in 2012. Another full impulse to $32 happened in 2011 so the $2 low in '12 would have to be a larger degree II.

Thanks for the advice. The trolls are a real bother!

Not too late though. You can delete this thread and start a new one with the same name. With admin self moderation.

I am happy to see another Elliot Wave thread. Can't have enough

[eboard10]

Should have made this self moderated to keep the trolls out...
Most here will scoff at the idea but yours and my counts, although a little different through 2014, have very similar targets. Another thing is that there is trade data from 2010 until your chart starts in 2012. Another full impulse to $32 happened in 2011 so the $2 low in '12 would have to be a larger degree II.

Rynindaclem, are you implying that wave B is complete and we have now resumed the downtrend, or is there still a possibility that we have a wave 5 of B to go?

[mnandii]

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/88ee6f2d-30d6-471f-8ed9-ab8c55b6aad0/2016-08-20_0709.png

As I've always maintained, I expect bitcoin to fall to below $100 a piece. This chart is the long term one. Bitcoin is falling in wave (3) of {C} of II. Wave {A} is a leading diagonal. Wave {B} is a combination while wave {C} ( fall from 782.12 high, the part labelled (Y) {B} ) is a developing impulse wave where waves (1) and (2) are complete. If bitcoin reaches to below $100 (as I expect), that will be your best opportunity to snatch as many as you can. Remember that once wave II completes , bitcoin will then make a sizable gain to beyond $2000 a piece.

[mnandii]

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/88ee6f2d-30d6-471f-8ed9-ab8c55b6aad0/2016-08-20_0709.png

As I've always maintained, I expect bitcoin to fall to below $100 a piece. This chart is the long term one. Bitcoin is falling in wave (3) of {C} of II. Wave {A} is a leading diagonal. Wave {B} is a combination while wave {C} ( fall from 782.12 high, the part labelled (Y) {B} ) is a developing impulse wave where waves (1) and (2) are complete. If bitcoin reaches to below $100 (as I expect), that will be your best opportunity to snatch as many as you can. Remember that once wave II completes , bitcoin will then make a sizable gain to beyond $2000 a piece.

On the 4 Hour Chart below we have a developing wave 3 of (3) which should end somewhere in the $400s.

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/f30da0b3-1876-482a-a397-5037750f7f45/2016-08-20_0745.png

[mnandii]

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/88ee6f2d-30d6-471f-8ed9-ab8c55b6aad0/2016-08-20_0709.png

As I've always maintained, I expect bitcoin to fall to below $100 a piece. This chart is the long term one. Bitcoin is falling in wave (3) of {C} of II. Wave {A} is a leading diagonal. Wave {B} is a combination while wave {C} ( fall from 782.12 high, the part labelled (Y) {B} ) is a developing impulse wave where waves (1) and (2) are complete. If bitcoin reaches to below $100 (as I expect), that will be your best opportunity to snatch as many as you can. Remember that once wave II completes , bitcoin will then make a sizable gain to beyond $2000 a piece.

On the 4 Hour Chart below we have a developing wave 3 of (3) which should end somewhere in the $400s.

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/f30da0b3-1876-482a-a397-5037750f7f45/2016-08-20_0745.png

http://content.screencast.com/users/mnandii/folders/Jing/media/d40ca51c-e52a-4978-97e6-3e570760ff19/2016-08-20_0759.png

1 Hour chart. Wave (i) complete. I expect a small upward retracement for wave (ii) which should not exceed $603.71 then a strong continuation of the fall in wave (iii).

[bitboy11]

OP, you are so full of shit that you should be holding your head in shame!

If anybody had followed your advice when you posted this thread, they would have either:
a) Sold everything they had and cried when the price went up or
b) Held off on buying any bitcoins as they would still be waiting for your imaginary price drop that never came.

You are a FUDder...end of story.

[Vhern]

That is likely to happen if some listen to him but hey if that prediction of yours turned out to be true, we will see a price dump because some folks are selling their coins.

[maxhor]

OP, you are so full of shit that you should be holding your head in shame!

If anybody had followed your advice when you posted this thread, they would have either:
a) Sold everything they had and cried when the price went up or
b) Held off on buying any bitcoins as they would still be waiting for your imaginary price drop that never came.

You are a FUDder...end of story.

I also will do agree with you this is nothing more than FUD, it will never in real world only just into imagination of OP, although at the moment it's bearish but it doesn't make any sense it could drop like this,

@OP look at this thread what they are talking about $2000 in next few months,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1576150.0

[calme]

"Bitcoin.org has reason to suspect that the binaries for the upcoming Bitcoin Core release will likely be targeted by state-sponsored attackers. As a website, Bitcoin.org does not have the necessary technical resources to guarantee that we can defend ourselves from attackers of this calibre. We ask the Bitcoin community, and in particular the Chinese Bitcoin community to be extra vigilant when downloading binaries from our website."

[bri912678]

OP, you are so full of shit that you should be holding your head in shame!

If anybody had followed your advice when you posted this thread, they would have either:
a) Sold everything they had and cried when the price went up or
b) Held off on buying any bitcoins as they would still be waiting for your imaginary price drop that never came.

You are a FUDder...end of story.

I also will do agree with you this is nothing more than FUD, it will never in real world only just into imagination of OP, although at the moment it's bearish but it doesn't make any sense it could drop like this,

@OP look at this thread what they are talking about $2000 in next few months,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1576150.0

The OP probably intended to buy on a small price dip created by this and a hundred other FUD threads he started with newbie accounts. I hope nobody fell for his scammy advice and lost money because of it.

[kwukduck]

Very careful and correct analysis.
You're right except for one thing. Bitcoin will not recover, it simply can't.
The network will collapse if the prices drop to these levels. Mean time between blocks will be days if not weeks.

[calme]

Well, one thing we have going for us is that for the n00bs, $85 seems particularly way out in leftfield, so they'll be buying like crazy even at $2-500.

[chesthing]

Perfect example of completely misunderstanding bitcoin's value and where it comes from. You can't apply traditional chart analysis to bitcoin - ask Matthecat how that went. Things like elliot wave have no meaning here.