ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN (BTC/USD) PRICE

[sandiman]

One more analysis about big drop in price of btc. Two months after we are on the same place like we use to be. More chances that after this silence price will go up, then down.
I see how many people try to implement some analysis on bitcoin currency without any success. They are trying to do something impossible in my opinion, bitcoin is something new and there isn't any similarities with other currencies. Except one we can spend bitcoins as other currencies.

Did you see my link literally two posts above yours ? or maybe just posting for your sig campaign.

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[RyNinDaCleM]

One more analysis about big drop in price of btc. Two months after we are on the same place like we use to be. More chances that after this silence price will go up, then down.
I see how many people try to implement some analysis on bitcoin currency without any success. They are trying to do something impossible in my opinion, bitcoin is something new and there isn't any similarities with other currencies. Except one we can spend bitcoins as other currencies.

Did you see my link literally two posts above yours ? or maybe just posting for your sig campaign.

The thing people see is the bad/the wrong. It's like a product... People who hate it voice their opinions the loudest and those who love it, quietly enjoy it. With TA it is no different. On average, most traders are unprofitable. And on average, the ones that are profitable, are wrong more often than they are right. But what (the profitable) TA people have is the ability to see a bad trade and cut losses earlier than the naysayers. People who don't understand how it works will never believe in it. On top of that, they see vastly more "wrong" TA than "right" because of the above mentioned laws of probabilities, and therefore make the biased conclusion that "It just don't work". I say, good for them, now leave the thread! ...the speculation forum! That is what this subforum is for, after all.
A TA thread is for the OP to put his analysis, and the discussion of it. It isn't for everyone with a voice to drop their biased unsubstantiated opinions because Bitcoin. If they think OP is wrong because TA doesn't work and in the same breath say it can only go up, then they themselves are guilty of exactly the same thing they are griping about. If no one can see the future, then why can they?

[seleme]

LOL @ fucking idiots ITT entertaining the idea of $100/btc when there is absolutely no reason for it go fall that much besides some imaginary chart theories

Perfect example of completely misunderstanding bitcoin's value and where it comes from. You can't apply traditional chart analysis to bitcoin - ask Matthecat how that went. Things like elliot wave have no meaning here.

This. Also any value lower that $100 or even $300 or even slightly more will cause bitcoin mining to crash.
Economy is not that old branch of science, Industrial Revolution happened 250 years ago and progress happened too fast in short amount of time to create current highly unstable economic markets.

Bitcoin was invented less than decade ago. Trying to measure it purely with standard economic tools is totally missed idea.

You're thinking in terms of economics. Elliot Wave Theory, and other chart analysis tools, can be viewed as mass psychology tools. Bitcoin may be a new market, but it's controlled by the same, predictable human psychology that has ruled all markets since the stone age.

Yes because bitcoin price movements have been so predictable!

That's what I was saying in March of 2014 when we were in 600s after 1200.

[josegines]

@mnandii, an update?

It may rise from $ 468, minimum of 2/August, is the wave (2)?

[afbitcoins]

I hold my hand up and admit I don't know shit about elliott wave analysis but my perception is that like any other analysis it is constantly modified by price not doing what it was supposed to, eg this must be wave 3, oh no wait if went the wrong direction maybe that means we are still in wave 2 of a bigger wave or some shit like that.

Having said all that my perception is based on ignorance of the principles of EW. I do find this an interesting thread and also despite my opinion that bitcoin will go a lot higher I am open to the possiblity I am wrong.

[afbitcoins]

To elaborate a bit my own bullish view of bitcoin is based on the wider economic picture in which central banks are holding interest rates at zero or even attempting negative interest rates. Central banks are also doing quantitative easing in Europe, Japan and Britain. Bitcoin is a natural protection against that, as is gold and other hard assets. Bitcoin supply recently halved also which should not be forgotten. Like a few others I find sub $100 btc hard to believe in this climate. Bitcoin is the daddy of crypto and the one which investors will first turn to in crypto space, not Dash or Eth or whatother alt might have arguably superior tech. But as I said above i could be wrong and admit it quite honestly and openly.

[Afrikoin]

I hold my hand up and admit I don't know shit about elliott wave analysis but my perception is that like any other analysis it is constantly modified by price not doing what it was supposed to, eg this must be wave 3, oh no wait if went the wrong direction maybe that means we are still in wave 2 of a bigger wave or some shit like that.

Having said all that my perception is based on ignorance of the principles of EW. I do find this an interesting thread and also despite my opinion that bitcoin will go a lot higher I am open to the possiblity I am wrong.

Not really.

It is more like a bunch of if statements with varying degrees of probability.

if it is not a wave 3 then ...

it is either a wave b or wave B

etc

[Afrikoin]

To elaborate a bit my own bullish view of bitcoin is based on the wider economic picture in which central banks are holding interest rates at zero or even attempting negative interest rates. Central banks are also doing quantitative easing in Europe, Japan and Britain. Bitcoin is a natural protection against that, as is gold and other hard assets. Bitcoin supply recently halved also which should not be forgotten. Like a few others I find sub $100 btc hard to believe in this climate. Bitcoin is the daddy of crypto and the one which investors will first turn to in crypto space, not Dash or Eth or whatother alt might have arguably superior tech. But as I said above i could be wrong and admit it quite honestly and openly.

this is a correct fundamental. but does not really tell us when the price will go up. I think everyone (in bitcoin land) knows this, so, i find it does not really add any value to where price will head next. Only that price will go up in future.

With EW, we are trying to be more precise (than your staement above) on where price ight head next, while, still agreeing that your fundamentals (above) will push price up (at some point).

Also, CBs could pull out a new card and push this money printing game longer.

There are lots of folks who have been calling for a collapse of the markets be/c of money printing since 2010. Still hasnt happened. Not saying it won't but, you get my drift

[afbitcoins]

To elaborate a bit my own bullish view of bitcoin is based on the wider economic picture in which central banks are holding interest rates at zero or even attempting negative interest rates. Central banks are also doing quantitative easing in Europe, Japan and Britain. Bitcoin is a natural protection against that, as is gold and other hard assets. Bitcoin supply recently halved also which should not be forgotten. Like a few others I find sub $100 btc hard to believe in this climate. Bitcoin is the daddy of crypto and the one which investors will first turn to in crypto space, not Dash or Eth or whatother alt might have arguably superior tech. But as I said above i could be wrong and admit it quite honestly and openly.

this is a correct fundamental. but does not really tell us when the price will go up. I think everyone (in bitcoin land) knows this, so, i find it does not really add any value to where price will head next. Only that price will go up in future.

With EW, we are trying to be more precise (than your staement above) on where price ight head next, while, still agreeing that your fundamentals (above) will push price up (at some point).

Also, CBs could pull out a new card and push this money printing game longer.

There are lots of folks who have been calling for a collapse of the markets be/c of money printing since 2010. Still hasnt happened. Not saying it won't but, you get my drift

Yes kicking the can on the economy is already going longer than I first thought, who knows how long it can continue?

If you can trade profitably using EW good on ya. I won't be selling at these levels though, to me it doesn't feel like that was a top. Which I will regret of course if $85 btc does come along. But even if price starts crashing I probably won't sell anything, I hate selling into falling prices.

[afbitcoins]

Looking at my own charts which I use more of a trend based analysis I won't like to see bitcoin heading below $530 which is below the bull fork I'm following, if that happens maybe I consider selling some

[Afrikoin]

To elaborate a bit my own bullish view of bitcoin is based on the wider economic picture in which central banks are holding interest rates at zero or even attempting negative interest rates. Central banks are also doing quantitative easing in Europe, Japan and Britain. Bitcoin is a natural protection against that, as is gold and other hard assets. Bitcoin supply recently halved also which should not be forgotten. Like a few others I find sub $100 btc hard to believe in this climate. Bitcoin is the daddy of crypto and the one which investors will first turn to in crypto space, not Dash or Eth or whatother alt might have arguably superior tech. But as I said above i could be wrong and admit it quite honestly and openly.

this is a correct fundamental. but does not really tell us when the price will go up. I think everyone (in bitcoin land) knows this, so, i find it does not really add any value to where price will head next. Only that price will go up in future.

With EW, we are trying to be more precise (than your staement above) on where price ight head next, while, still agreeing that your fundamentals (above) will push price up (at some point).

Also, CBs could pull out a new card and push this money printing game longer.

There are lots of folks who have been calling for a collapse of the markets be/c of money printing since 2010. Still hasnt happened. Not saying it won't but, you get my drift

Yes kicking the can on the economy is already going longer than I first thought, who knows how long it can continue?

If you can trade profitably using EW good on ya. I won't be selling at these levels though, to me it doesn't feel like that was a top. Which I will regret of course if $85 btc does come along. But even if price starts crashing I probably won't sell anything, I hate selling into falling prices.

Can break higher.

Thats why i am bullish in the short term. First looking at $650, then $700. Can't say much beyond that. Also As per my trade on Ryan's bit simulator But i am biased, and cautious of a top.

BTW I like you pitch forks. Keep 'em coming!

Here is a chart i saw today. Kinda speaks to where the market is now

[chesthing]

To elaborate a bit my own bullish view of bitcoin is based on the wider economic picture in which central banks are holding interest rates at zero or even attempting negative interest rates. Central banks are also doing quantitative easing in Europe, Japan and Britain. Bitcoin is a natural protection against that, as is gold and other hard assets. Bitcoin supply recently halved also which should not be forgotten. Like a few others I find sub $100 btc hard to believe in this climate. Bitcoin is the daddy of crypto and the one which investors will first turn to in crypto space, not Dash or Eth or whatother alt might have arguably superior tech. But as I said above i could be wrong and admit it quite honestly and openly.

this is a correct fundamental. but does not really tell us when the price will go up. I think everyone (in bitcoin land) knows this, so, i find it does not really add any value to where price will head next. Only that price will go up in future.

With EW, we are trying to be more precise (than your staement above) on where price ight head next, while, still agreeing that your fundamentals (above) will push price up (at some point).

Also, CBs could pull out a new card and push this money printing game longer.

There are lots of folks who have been calling for a collapse of the markets be/c of money printing since 2010. Still hasnt happened. Not saying it won't but, you get my drift

Yes kicking the can on the economy is already going longer than I first thought, who knows how long it can continue?

If you can trade profitably using EW good on ya. I won't be selling at these levels though, to me it doesn't feel like that was a top. Which I will regret of course if $85 btc does come along. But even if price starts crashing I probably won't sell anything, I hate selling into falling prices.

Yeah, jeez, how long can they continue to just kick the can on the economy? its not like civilization is depending on it - oh, wait....

[bitcoin carpenter]

Thanks for that chart, it really puts things in perspective.

[Joe200]

My noob count and question. Does this make any sense? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1733053

[chesthing]

Hi guys,

I am new here and will be grateful for your welcoming me aboard. I am an Elliottician and I apply Elliott waves to currencies (forex), gold and bitcoin (BTC/USD). My current analysis suggests that bitcoin price is falling in a third wave and will likely fall to below $100 soon. NB: I know that's a shock to most  . However I will provide more information as time progresses. My chart below is self explanatory (for those who understand the basic Elliott Wave theme) but I will endeavor to bring everyone on board and not lose people through unnecessary jargon.

As shown, I expect bitcoin to bottom at about $85, being the area of the last fourth wave (i.e the converging trend lines) of the rise from about $0 to >$1000 a piece.

So what do we take from this post, that this so called Elliot Wave expert is really f'g bad at EW analysis, or that EW analysis doesn't apply to bitcoin?

For those who think EW analysis applies, what are your thoughts as to what wave we are in?

[bitserve]

We are entering moon wave. That's all I am going to say at this time.

You can quote me a couple of years from now and show me how wrong I were.....

[djuvantebit]

EW does not apply to Cryptocurrency imo, it apply's to stocks and forex, cryptocurrency is still very emotional and being controlled by the big moneys. EW can apply when the market players are actually subject to the same rules

[chesthing]

EW does not apply to Cryptocurrency imo, it apply's to stocks and forex, cryptocurrency is still very emotional and being controlled by the big moneys. EW can apply when the market players are actually subject to the same rules

I'm inclined to agree, as the 2013 pump was completely artificial and the resulting dump was simply not normal market behavior as well. However, some guy (I'd have to find it) predicted a big surge in alts compared to bitcoin this year before it happened using Elliot wave analysis, and he was dead on. So still not sure.

[Vahnt]

EW does not apply to Cryptocurrency imo, it apply's to stocks and forex, cryptocurrency is still very emotional and being controlled by the big moneys. EW can apply when the market players are actually subject to the same rules

Masterluc/Lucif has been pretty good with his long-term calls over the years using, among other things, a lot of EW to establish price targets and tops/bottoms.

[snowdropfore]

now the price is $4000 now ,i think you are wrong about the bitcoin ,bitcoin is not like other thing